Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 16

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota at BuffaloFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Minnesota +3½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Buffalo Bills scored 44 points in their NFL preseason opener, which is obviously highly unusual. When you look at how they got most of it, the picture is clear. Buffalo scored on a 107-yard kickoff return, a 72-yard fumble recovery and a 17-yard interception return for a touchdown. This was a 21-20 game otherwise. No one likes losing even in these preseason games. Minnesota starts 0-1 with a 27-13 loss against Houston thanks in part to a decisive -2 in turnover margin. I expect a more spirited effort here for this one with a focus on taking care of the football. I think Doug Marrone wanted his team to get a win to take some of the potential heat off in his first game on the sidelines. While he said that the Bills were going to work on the running game, they came out passing. With that big win under his belt, the pressure is off and I expect them to revert back to experimentation in this one. This game is getting a spike in the line due to the 44-point Bills uprising in Game 1, combined with the Minnesota loss. Losers usually shine when facing winners in Week 2, so take the points and play on Minnesota here.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco at Kansas CityFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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High total in this game, especially considering these two teams combined to score only 19 points between the two of them in a pair of preseason losses last week. We have a strong opinion on the side of this game which you can pick up with our 20* NFLX Vegas Inferno Winner, but we also have a good feeling about the Under in this game. 49ers only allowed three points on defense last week, holding Denver to 220 total yards on offense. This total of 40.5 points along with a 1.5-point spread suggests a final score of 20-19 or 21-19. We don't think either side will reach their expected point totals and with Jim Harbough going under the total to the tune of 6-2-1 in his nine games at the helm of San Francisco, we look for another low-scoring game Friday night.

FezzikFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay +3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pats offensive design for the season is a mystery with Hernandez in jail and most of their other receivers hurt or departing. It is assumed they'll be more ground oriented but who knows? New England certainly doesn't want to tip their hand to the Bucs in this one, as these teams play again in Week 3. Safe to say that it will be a vanilla performance by a Pats team that doesn't care, and even if they did, wouldn't who wouldn't show any thing.
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While off their big win in Philly, New England won't have much interest in this contest, Tampa Bay feels differently. This is a make or break year for Tampa Bay and they were run off the field by the Ravens. Adam Weber, a practice squad player last year, threw INT's on his first two passes, and veteran 3rd stringer Dan Orlovsky, who didn't play Saturday, should be effective in the second half against a Patriots team lacking cornerback depth. Seven projected starters didn't play last week for the Bucs, and several will be in the game for this one.
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Ryan Mallett, the Pats backup QB, is no great shakes. Tebow is only accurate to about 6 yards or so. The Patriots are placing a lot of emphasis on their Tues/Wed practice sessions with the Bucs. With a big win under their belt, they shouldn't be all that interested in the game itself, while Greg Schiano knows this is a pivotal year for his club to bounce back from last season's disappointment, and the confidence garnered from a win here would help his cause. Go with Tampa Bay.

Marc Lawrence

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Prediction: New York Yankees

When Andy Pettitte takes the hill against the Red Sox in the opener of this key AL East division duel at Fenway Park Friday evening, Pettitte will do so knowing he is 11-5 in his career team starts in this park, including 6-2 the last eight. In addition, Pettitte is 9-3 in his last twelve team starts during August, including 5-1 his last six away. With the Red Sox 2-4 against southpaws behind Felix Doubront this season, look for the Pinstripes to improve to 10-4 their last fourteen games in this park here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the NY Yankees.

Freddy Wills

Detroit Tigers -155 Game 1

Justin Verlander has had a weird season highlighted by control problems, but he's posted a 2.57 ERA over his last three starts and 2 of those came on 5 days rest which means he's plenty rested for this day start on Thursday. Verlander has actually flat out dominated during day starts this season posting a 2.46 ERA this season and looking back further he has a 2.41 ERA over the last three years. He's pitched well on 4 days rest with 12 of 14 quality starts and has a 2.77 ERA at home on 4 days rest. Tigers are 40-16 in his last 56 overall on 4 days rest. He's had plenty of success dominating the Royals too especially at home where he posts a 1.74 ERA since 2011.

Royals on the other hand start Danny Duffy who had a 5 IP and 5 ER performance in his only start at Detroit. Duffy has not been very good int he minors over 9 AAA starts he is walking 4.13 guys per 9 and that is just not going to cut it on the road against the Tigers who are scoring 5.85 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home. These are great for the Tigers if you can grab these odds early as they are 39-12 in their last 51 as a favorite -151-200.

Notable Hot Starters L3 GS:
Zack Greinke (3-0, 19.2 IP, 1.07 WHIP, 1.83 ERA)
Chad Gaudin (3-0, 18.1 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 0.98 ERA)
Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 20 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.35 ERA)
Alex Wood (2-1, 19 IP, 0.74 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
R.A. Dickey (2-1, 20.2 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 1.74 ERA)

Notable Cold Starters L3 GS:
Jake Westbrook (1-2, 17 IP, 1.47 WHIP, 6.35 ERA)
Brandon McCarthy (0-3, 14 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Jose Alvarez (1-2, 13.2 IP, 1.76 WHIP, 6.59 ERA)
Andy Pettitte (1-2, 14 IP, 2.21 WHIP, 6.43 ERA)
Jeremy Hellickson (0-3, 12 IP, 2.06 WHIP, 9.75 ERA)
Juan Nicasio (1-2, 14 IP, 2.14 WHIP, 9.64 ERA)

Jim Feist

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Houston Astros

So who is playing better baseball the last 3 nights? That would be underdog Houston. This is a tough situational spot for the Angels, playing yesterday on the East Coast at Yankee stadium, flying 3,000 miles and having to play tonight. And this underachieving group has had all kinds of problems, worst in baseball in fielding and struggling on the mound. Starter Jerome Williams (5-8, 4.85 ERA) is no ace and is 1-3 against Houston. The Angels are 6-14 in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 2-10 in Williams' last 12 home starts. And the Astros are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.

Art Aronson

Dodgers vs. Phillies
Play: Under 7

Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.21 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Greinke is coming off a 5-0 win over the Rays on Saturday, scattering six hits over 6 2/3's innings of work, walking one and striking out seven. Greinke is now 7-1 over his last 10 starts with a sparkling 2.49 ERA; he'll take his respectable 4-2 road record into Philadelphia to throw opposite Cliff Lee (10-5, 3.18 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Nationals on Saturday. Lee will be looking to improve upon his 4-3, 4.09 ERA home record. This is the fifth time in 2013 that these teams have faced off against each other, with the O/U currently sitting at 3-1. But this is however the first time these two starters have been matched up and as such, I'm expecting runs to be at a premium between these two competent hurlers; consider a second look at the "under" in this one.

Will Rogers

Seattle vs. Texas
Pick: Under

What happened to Hisashi Iwakuma last time out? In the midst of a successful year, he allowed six runs in a 10-0 loss at Milwaukee. He'd previously allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts, something he's done in 15 of 25 starts overall this year. Friday night, I expect a much lower-scoring game as he faces off against Texas.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Iwakuma - It should be pointed out that the Mariners didn't score the last time he started. They scored only one run in his start before that one. However, Iwakuma's stats remain impressive. He is 10-6 in 25 starts with a 2.96 ERA and 0.994 WHIP. In six career starts vs. the Rangers, he has a 1.079 WHIP.

2. Derek Holland - The Rangers lefty has seen the Under cash in 9 of his last 11 starts at home. For the season, he has a 3.05 ERA and 1.255 WHIP. After throwing eight scoreless innings two starts ago (10 strikeouts), he allowed just three runs last time out. Seattle averages just 3.9 runs/game vs. lefties.

3. X-Factor - As I've stated many times, the Rangers are an Under team. They are 38-18 Under in all home games.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

The Braves fit a 15-0 Dominator that plays on certain home favorites that are off a home favorite win and scored 5 or more runs, and are taking on an opponent, like Washington that lost their last game as a home favorite at -140 or higher and scored 4 or less runs and the total in this game is less than 10. Washington comes into Atlanta off a tough 1 run loss to the Giants. They have lost 10 of 13 to the Braves already this season. The Nationals have struggled against winning teams of late losing 10 of the last 11 games. The Braves are coming in with rest and have won 11 of 13 in that role. Atlanta is 12-3 as a home favorite in this range and have started the month of August hot winning 11 of 13. They have A. Wood on the mound and he has a stellar 2.25 home era. They follow up Wood with a superb bullpen that has a 2.03 home era. Washington has young T. Jordan on the mound and he has lost 3 of his first 4 road starts. Look for Atlanta to take the opener here tonight.

Doug Upstone

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Take the Reds tonight in Milwaukee. They have won their last 5 and Joey Votto has reached base in 16 straight. Milwaukee will be without CF Carlos Gomez who suffered a knee injury earlier in the week. Mike Leake is 1-0 with a 4.05 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers.

Bruce Marshall

Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

After looking almost hopelessly out of the playoff chase last week, a dramatic midweek sweep over the visiting Orioles has convinced the D-backs they can get back into the NL postseason picture. Winning all of those games vs. the Birds in walk-off fashion means Arizona brings some momentum into PNC Park, something the Bucs lack at the moment after losing five of six. Which renders their five-game win streak at home in serious jeopardy, especially with UCLA rookie Gerrit Cole struggling in his recent starts (5.29 ERA last three) and the bullpen showing some signs of wear and tear. Encouraging for the D-backs was the improved form of starter Brendan McCarthy in his last start over the weekend vs. the Mets, allowing just 2 runs in 7 IP.

Bryan Leonard

Oakland A's -121

AJ Griffin and Justin Masterson meet in a crucial series for both teams with wild card implications. The A's should feel confident handing the ball to Griffin, who has great numbers at O.co Coliseum. In 19 starts at home, Griffin is 8-3 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a .224 batting average against. The A's are 8-3 in Griffin's 11 home starts this season and were 8-1 in eight regular season starts and one postseason start when Griffin started at home last season. Over Griffin's 18 career regular season home starts, a 15-4 mark would be .789 winning percentage. The line currently around -130 implies a 56.52% probability of winning, so on that alone, there's value on the A's. The Indians are scoring less than four runs per game in August and will be facing Griffin for just the second time.

Justin Masterson has to be very sharp to have success against the A's. One of the most patient teams in baseball, Masterson will have to exhibit good control in order to be successful. He has rarely been successful against the A's. In 11 appearances, seven starts, Masterson has a 7.42 ERA with a 1.65 WHIP against the A's. Take away Masterson's last quality start of seven innings and three runs allowed, and his ERA entering that start was 8.10. In Masterson's five starts with the lowest chase rate, his start against Oakland included, he is 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA. When Masterson isn't getting swings and misses on pitches outside of the zone, he becomes very hittable. That makes the A's a bad matchup for Masterson and the Indians don't appear likely to give him a lot of run support.

Jesse Schule

Cincinnati vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Under

The ‪Cincinnati Reds‬ have won five straight on the road, and they have seen the total go under the number in 10 of their last 11 away games.

The Reds eked out a 2-1 victory at Miller Park last night in the series opener versus the ‪#‎BrewCrew‬.

Game 2 will feature a pair of capable pitchers that have both been sharp recently. Mike Leake will toe the slab for the visitors while Tom Gorzelanny will get the nod for Milwaukee.

Gorzelanny (3-4, 2.51 ERA) was dealing in his last start, tossing seven scoreless innings allowing just three hits in a shutout win over the Mariners. The southpaw has been very effective since coming out of the bullpen to join the rotation. He's put up zeros in the earned run column in four of his last six starts.

Joey Votto is just 3-for-20 with seven strikeouts lifetime versus the veteran lefty.

Mike Leake (10-5, 2.86 ERA) allowed a pair of runs (one earned) over seven innings in a 3-2 win over the Padres his last time out. He's been almost unstoppable on the road this year, posting a record of 7-1, 1.94 ERA.

One of those victories came at Miller Park, when he went 8 1/3 innings allowing a pair of runs on just four hits in a 6-2 ballgame.

Given the pitching matchup, I don't expect to see a slugfest in Milwaukee tonight, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another tight game.

MLB Predictions

Los Angeles Dodgers -102

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the talk of baseball right now as they've won 41 of their last 51 games, including 8 straight heading into tonight's game. Yesterday was an off day for the Dodgers who are coming off a sweep of the Mets at home. The Dodgers are 70-50 on the season and 33-25 on the road. They are averaging 6.38 runs per game over their 8 game winning streak. The Phillies on the other hand have lost two straight and 5 of their last 6 games overall. They are just 7-20 over their last 27 games and they've dropped to 53-67 on the season and are 29-27 at home. The Dodgers are 1st in the Majors in team batting average in August at .298, while the Phillies are 27th at .225. Overall on the season the Dodgers rank 4th while the Phillies are 17th. Tonight the Dodgers will send Zack Grienke to the mound who is 10-3 on the year with a 3.21 ERA, .256 OBA and 1.23 WHIP. Over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in 6 of his last 7 starts. Cliff Lee will take the mound for Philadelphia and he is 10-5 on the season with a 3.18 ERA, .238 OBA and 1.06 WHIP. After posting a 6.05 ERA in 3 July starts he is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in his first two August starts. He faced the Dodgers on June 29th giving up 4 hits and 3 earned runs over 7 innings. Since that game he has allowed 7+ hits in each start and 3+ ER against. Take note that the Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs a left handed starter, 12-2 in their last 14 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, and 22-4 in their last 26 road games. They are also 9-1 in Grienke's last 10 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 road starts, and 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. The Phillies are 2-6 in their last 8 home games, 1-11 in their last 12 vs a team with a winning record and 0-4 in Lee's last 4 starts. Los Angeles is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings overall and 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Philadelphia. The Dodgers are finding ways to win right now and I expect that to continue in Philadelphia tonight vs a struggling Phillies team.