Alex Smart
Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
Masterson the Indians all star starter today vs the As has been roughed up of late. In his last outing he lasted a season-low 4 1/3 innings , surrendering five runs (four of them earned) against the LA Angels. It was the second straight trip to the hill that saw the veteran allow five-runs. Masterson has not faired well vs the Athletics in the past as is evident by a sub par 2-5 record along with a nasty looking 7.42 lifetime ERA.It must be noted that the Indians are 0-5 in Mastersons last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. I know the As have not played that well of late , but today vs Masterson I expect their bats will come to life. The Athletics are 15-4 in their last 19 home games vs. a team with an above .500 record. Im betting they add another W to that positive trend. Oakland As on the moneyline
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Pittsburgh Pirates -148FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates have a .260 batting average over their past seven games which is substantially better than their overall numbers this season. The biggest problem they have run into lately, is the fact that those extra hits are not translating into additional runs. They have a 71-49 overall record, making them one of the best teams in the National League, so I expect to see them start turning those additional hits into more runs than they have been.
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Arizona has performed poorly on the rod this year, sitting five games below .500, and picking up a win with Brandon McCarthy getting the start has proved difficult all season. McCarthy has a 6.43 ERA in his last three starts and the Diamondbacks are 0-3 in those games. Gerrit Cole has a 3.96 ERA this season so the advantage on the mound is heavily in favor of the Pirates today.
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WINNIPEG +4 over HamiltonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Buy-low, sell high is a philosophy we use often and it certainly applies here. The Tigercats are coming off a win two weeks ago in Edmonton (they had a bye last week). They probably should’ve defeated the Argos in the season opener and had that come to pass, they would be 3-3. Hamilton also tops the league in passing with 1,842 yards. They’re coming on and it’s also worth noting that they get Andy Fantuz back this week, perhaps the best receiver in the game. Hamilton coach, Kent Austin is widely regarded as one of the best because he’s won wherever he’s been in the past. However, Austin had the talent to succeed in the past and we’re here to tell you that he’s an idiot.
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With a 30-29 lead in Edmonton and with 32 seconds left in the game, Hamilton had a second down and 10 at their own 50-yard line. Instead of running the ball and running the clock (Edmonton had no timeouts left), Austin goes to the air and the pass is incomplete. Clock stops and the Ti-Cats punt. As it turns out Edmonton marches down field and they miss a 48-yard FG with one second remaining. Austin got lucky that they missed because he deserved to lose that game with the most idiotic 2nd and 10 call of the year. He runs the ball and the game is over. It’s not rocket science. That’s just one example of Austin's incompetence but there have been several others. Hamilton has just one more win that than the Blue Bombers. Its two wins have come against Edmonton and Winnipeg, the latter at home by five points. The ‘Cats own the league’s worst defense. They’ve allowed a league high 31.2 points per game and a league high 135.2 rushing yards against per game. With an idiot coach and a defense that can’t stop the marching band, spotting points on the road cannot be recommended.
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The Blue Bombers stock has hit bottom. Their one victory this season came against the reeling Alouettes. As a result of losing so many games, Winnipeg made several changes heading into this one. President and chief executive officer Garth Buchko and general manager Joe Mack were fired last Friday, followed by a switch at starting quarterback, the signing of a new kicker and the hiring of an offensive consultant. Out on the field, head coach Tim Burke went with his offensive staff's decision to use their third starting quarterback this season, handing the reins to CFL rookie Max Hall for this game in place of Justin Goltz. However, Goltz drops to No. 3 on the depth chart and veteran ex-starter Buck Pierce is Hall's backup. Hall got into six games for the Arizona Cardinals of the NFL back in 2010 and started three, winning only his first start, 30-20 over the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints. He was later injured and only played in some pre-season games the following season. Last year, he was a grad assistant and helped out his alma mater Brigham Young's football team. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for a guy making his first CFL start but the reports are that he’s been sharp and one can never ignore a QB that made the NFL.
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Additionally, Winnipeg has perhaps the best defensive line in the game. They sacked Henry Burris seven times in the last meeting and they’re likely to apply as much pressure here. Winnipeg's defense leads the CFL in sacks with 24 and it’s not like they don’t have offensive talent. These Blue Bombers are a good QB game away from being seriously dangerous. Winnipeg's defense is out on the field far too long because of so many two-and outs that the numbers against that overused defense are skewed. Winnipeg has had two weeks to prepare and every player on that team comes into this one with a positive and new-found attitude after the changes. The reports are that the practices have been intense and tonight’s intensity level will be sky-high. Winnipeg has yet to win at its new home field but these players are determined to give their passionate fan base something to cheer about. Don’t be surprised if it occurs here against this very beatable guest.
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Cleveland +117 over OAKLANDFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Athletics have one series win over their past five series and that came in Toronto against the worst starting pitching staff, statistically, in the league. The A’s just dropped two of three to the Astros and slowly but surely they are being exposed as a very ordinary baseball team. Ordinary baseball teams aren’t usually 16 games above .500 and in first place in mid-August so there are very likely more losses than wins forthcoming for the A’s for the remainder of the year. Not only does Oakland have one of the weakest hitting lineups in the entire league but they’re starting pitching isn’t as good as advertised either. A.J. Griffin is among them. Griffin had a mediocre 4.86 ERA in July, where he was hurt by a 2.7 HR/9. That’s no shock because Griffin is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a groundball/fly-ball rate of 27%/54%. Griffin pitched just 82 innings last season. He’s almost doubled that this year already and in his last start he walked six batters while striking out two. He could be suffering from fatigue and whether that’s the case or not, he and the A’s are in no way superior to Justin Masterson and the Indians.
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After a rough stretch against the Angels and Tigers, the Indians are back on track with three wins in four games. They scored 20 runs in those three wins and they’ve scored six runs or more in three of Masterson’s last four starts. Masterson has experienced a big strikeout rate surge from 2012 to 2013 (6.9 to 9.1 per nine IP), which is the highest increase among AL starters. Masterson’s aggregate skills are firmly among the AL's best with an elite 64% groundball rate and a 3.19 xERA. Win or lose, this is a must play because we get the better pitcher, the better offense and the team in better form too. Oh, yeah, we also get a tag.
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Chicago +113 over MINNESOTAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Kevin Correia is favored, you can pencil us in on the dog almost every time and we certainly make no exception here. It's as if someone unplugged Correia's good luck machine on May 1st. In five April starts, he had a 2.23 ERA on a 27% hit rate, 81% strand rate, and 5% HR/F. Since then, on a month-to-month basis, he's had a hit rate no less than 32%, strand rates twice in the 60s, and 2 months of over 20% HR/F’s. Overall the Twins have lost seven of Correia’s last nine starts and over that span Correia has a brutal 1.68 WHIP. Pitching for the Twins, Kevin Correia has to be considered one of the riskiest and least appealing favorites in the entire league.
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The White Sox have split their last 10 games and they just took two out of three against the Tigers before losing the opener of this series last night, 5-4. While trade rumors were swirling on the south side of Chicago, a young, unheralded starter has quietly put up solid numbers. While not matching the star power of Chris Sale or Jake Peavy (before the trade), Jose Quintana has become a mainstay in the White Sox rotation. The 24-year old Quintana has stepped up this year. His K rate has gone up. Combine that with his fine control and his command is strongly heading to an elite level. Quintana is dominating righties. While he gave up a .284/.349/.426 line against them last year, he’s limiting them to .232/.288/.370 this year. His improved dominance is seen in his 52%/14% quality start/disaster start in 21 starts. He was at 32/32 in 2012. xERA shows that Quintana’s skills come with full support and his chances of winning this one are greater than Correia’s chances.
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MILWAUKEE +119 over CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers ran into a lefty that was dealing it last night but the same fate does not await them here. Mike Leake has put up some sick surface stats on the road (7-1 - 1.94 ERA) but the skills do not support that, meaning some serious regression in his road stats are forthcoming. Leake has just 97 K’s in 148 frames. Aside from a low strikeout rate, we’re also seeing other warning signs in his recent form. Since the beginning of July, Leake has a 38%/25%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio. Leake posted a 48% groundball rate in April, May and June and that 10% increase strongly suggests he’s having difficulty keeping the ball down, a sure sign of fatigue. Another sign of fatigue is an increase in walks and that’s precisely what Leake is suffering through right now. He’s walked almost as many as he’s struck out over his past four games and over that span he has posted an alarming 1.53 WHIP. When Leake struggled in 2012 his line-drive rate was 25% and that’s exactly where he’s been at over his past eight starts. Leake could be in trouble against this very good hitting line-up of the Brewers.
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The Reds scored two runs last night. Over their past 20 games, Cinci has the worst team batting average in baseball (.211). That’s lower than the Astros, White Sox, Marlins, Cubs and Giants. The Reds will now face an under the radar pitcher that they have not had much success against. Tom Gorzelanny tossed a gem Saturday night, striking out seven batters and holding the Mariners scoreless over seven innings. Recently shifted from the bullpen to the rotation, Gorzelanny has 33 K/7 BB in his six starts, spanning 35 IP. Over 71.2 innings overall, Gorzelanny has allowed just 51 hits. He is having his best overall season, with career-best 2.51 ERA, a career-best 3.45 xERA and an outstanding 48%/16% groundball/line-drive rate. It may also surprise you to learn that the Brewers have hit more jacks than the Reds and that over their past 10 games, the Brew Crew have gone deep 11 times. Milwaukee runs into trouble when they’re facing a strikeout pitcher but that is not the case here. Definite overlay.
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Toronto +135 over TAMPA BAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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R.A. Dickey has been awful at home this season because he can’t keep the ball in the park. However, on the road, Dickey has been as good as he was last year in his Cy Young award winning year. On the road this season, Dickey is just 5-5 but has a skills supported 3.08 ERA. The Blue Jays have won five of Dickey’s last six road starts. Over his last five starts, Dickey has struck out 30 batters in 33 innings with an elite line-drive rate of 14%. His knuckleball has also increased in velocity over that span and that could explain the much better results. More than all of that, however, is that the Rays simply can’t hit the knuckleball. Current Rays have 153 AB’s versus R.A. Dickey and they have an embarrassing 24 hits combined for a BA of .157. Dickey has already defeated the Rays twice this season and that includes a two-hit, complete game shutout at the Trop back on June 26.
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Over his last five starts covering just 23 frames, Jeremy Hellickson has walked 10 batters and struck out just 12. Over that same five-game span Helllickson has posted a 1.65/6.26 WHIP/ERA split. Hellickson has not made it out of the fifth inning in three straight starts and now one has to wonder about his health. Hellickson has struggled pitching with runners on base, as shown by his 59% strand rate the first time through lineups and his 35% strand rate the third time through lineups. Not only is Hellickson throwing like a pitcher with some undetected health issues, he’s also pitching with his confidence lower than it’s been in a long time. That has us confidently stepping in on this live pup.
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Indiana at Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Indiana +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The line in this game is certainly playing to the records of these teams. For Indiana, that doesn't quite represent what has happened after a hangover-type start off their Championship season from a year ago. The Fever got out of the gate at 1-7, but have played themselves back into contention for a playoffs spot in the East. The last 15 games would pit this matchup as a 10-5 Indiana team at a 12-3 Los Angeles team. With that in mind, the line certainly would look a bit different, so we have some value here on the dog. The Fever are a feisty 20-8 ATS off a single day of rest in their last 28 and have responded well lately off a loss at 5-0 ATS. The Sparks are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 off of two days of rest. Take the points and play on Indiana.
Betting Resource - Free Pick
08/16/13
LA Dodgers/Philadelphia
Pick Philadelphia -102
Record 20-9-0 (69 %)
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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee BrewersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Milwaukee BrewersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that Milwaukee will upset the Reds tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 70-33 mark for 68% winners and has made 37 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) off a one run loss to a division rival and starting a rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest. The Reds are coming off a low scoring 2-1 win over the Brewers in the first game of this four game set. Reds are just 4-11 (-10.0 Units) against the money line after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less this season. Milwaukee is a solid 16-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons. Take the Brewers.
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Cleveland Indians vs. Oakland AthleticsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both team's struggles have tightened things up in the American League Wild Card race. Oakland is returning home and hoping to rekindle the kind of play that gives them one of the best home records in the Majors. It should be a solid pitching matchup and you can get good value on the home side because Cleveland has its ace Justin Masterson on the hill. Oakland grabs the victory, perhaps proving that it is a little bit further along in its development than Cleveland in the process. Take confidence from A.J. Griffin's home heavy splits and ability to not give up too many free passes.
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Colorado vs. BaltimoreFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: BaltimoreFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockies and Orioles last met June 8-10, 2007 at Camden Yards. The Orioles are returning from an eight-game West Coast swing which began well at 4-1 but ended with Baltimore losing all three games in Arizona on the Diamondbacks' final at-bat. Closer Jim Johnson blew the save in each of the last two. The Rockies have outscored their opponents by 24 runs in a recent 5-1 surge but are long shots to make any 'noise' down the stretch in the NL. Meanwhile, the Orioles are just three games out of a wild card spot in the AL (are 5 1/2 games back of the 1st-place Red Sox in the AL East).
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Colorado opens a 10-game road trip with this three-game set in Baltimore and here's an 'ugly' stat; Colorado is a WOEFUL 1-8 in the first game of a road trip in 2013. Maybe I don't need to say anything more, but I will. Juan Nicasio (6-6, 5.04 ERA) gets the nod for Colorado, squaring off against Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen (6-5, 3.06 ERA).
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Nicasio enters this game 6-6 with a 5.04 ERA in 22 starts. His season remains an inconsistent one. After going 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his first three starts upon being recalled from Triple-A on July 12, he went 0-2 with a 9.64 mark in his next three. He's allowed 76 hits in just 59.2 innings on the road this year (owns a poor 35-24 KW ratio), while posting a 6.03 ERA in 12 road starts.
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In contrast, Chen has thrived at home, posting a 3-1 record and a 2.67 ERA in his five starts at Camden Yards (Baltimore is 4-1). He's made just 14 starts in 2013 but has recorded SIX straight quality starts since coming off the disabled list back on July 10.
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Colorado's last road trip ended with just one win in 10 tries and I'm not sure this one will work out any better. First things first.
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Oakland A's -127FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Oakland A's are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the Cleveland Indians tonight. Oakland has gone 36-22 at home this season, while Cleveland is just 27-31 on the road.
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A.J. Griffin is one of the more underrated starters in the big leagues. The right-hander is 10-8 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.131 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 5-3 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.130 WHIP in 11 home starts.
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Justin Masterson is 5-5 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 road starts for Cleveland, including 1-1 with a 5.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in his last three starts. Masterson has never been able to figure out Oakland, going 2-5 with a 9.08 ERA and 1.878 WHIP in seven career starts against the A's.
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The Indians are 23-48 in their last 71 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cleveland is 4-14 in its last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Indians are 0-5 in Masterson's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 73-33 in their last 106 games as a favorite. Oakland is 16-4 in Griffin's last 20 home starts. Bet the A's Friday.
Rocketman
Minnesota @ Buffalo
Play: Minnesota +3.5
The Minnesota Vikings travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills on Friday night. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS since 1993 in the NFL preseason as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 7 points. Minnesota is 10-3 ATS since 1993 in the NFL Preseason as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 7 points. Buffalo is off a 44-20 blowout win this past week over Indianapolis while Minnesota struggled losing 27-13 to Houston in Week One. We should see Minnesota being a little more focused here tonight. One system says to play AGAINST any home favorite of more than 3 points off a SU and ATS win vs an opponent off a SU loss. This system is 27-7 79.5% since 1983. Buffalo is 13-22 ATS last 35 games as a favorite in the preseason. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS as favorite off a double digit SU win. Buffalo is 2-8 ATS last 10 home games in preseason vs opponent off a double digit SU loss. Buffalo is 4-12 SU their last 16 preseason games. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS last 7 years in Game Two of the preseason. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
KANSAS CITY -2 over San Francisco: Both teams are off losses last week, but the Niners can afford to do that in the preseason as they know what they already have on their team, but the Chiefs and Andy Ried will be looking to get some wins in the preseason as to give his team some confidence. Also look for a nice game out of Alex Smith, who played for San Fran last year, before an injury gave the ball over to Colin and Smith never got his job back. Smith and the first team offense did travel 80 yards on 14 plays for a TD vs the Saints last week. The Chiefs defense was also tough, holding the Saint first team offense to just 16 total yards. I know you should buck some long standing trends, but i will do so in this one as the Chiefs are 0-10 ATS the last 10 years during week 2 of the preseason. I feel that some trends must come to an end eventually and this will be one of them. Andy Ried and Alex Smith for that matter, need his game more than the Niners do and they should take it by at least 6 points.
2 UNIT PLAY
NEW ORLEANS -6.5 over Oakland: The Saints didn't really play all that well in their opening game vs the Chiefs, but I look for a more focused effort in this one. Brees and the offensive starters will play a bit more in this one and will put up plenty of points. Oakland will not have enough offense to keep this one close. Look for an easy win for the Saints in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Minnesota/ Buffalo Over 42.5: I don't expect Buffalo to go crazy like last week, but Kolb will be starting this one and I expect him to have a good showing, while EJ Manuel will look to prove what he did last week was no fluke. The Buffalo defense did a good job last week, but still allowed 20 points. Minnesota's offense isn't great, but they probably won't be playing much of AP and would like to work on their passing game. I can see allot of balls in the air in this one as the game flies over the total.
Greg Shaker
Batimore Orioles -1.5 +110
I'm never too proud to play a team their first game back after a long roadtrip but I can be OK with it when they have a day off to unpack. That's what Baltimore got to do yesterday. A number of factors lend itself to a play on the -1.5 and not the least of which is the fact that the Lefty going for the O's tonight has had strong results here pitching at The Yard. He will be pitching at the Rockies weakest link, hitting Southpaws on the Highway as this team is managing just a .230 BA and a meager 2.5 Runs per 9 in this situation. The Orioles meanwhile will be batting from their power spot verses the Righty averaging 5.5 Per 9 while eating Crab Cakes. Since coming off the DL Chen has 6 quality starts in a row. Not the case for the Rocky Hurler with an ERA at a Horrific 9.64 over his last 3. We must also note that in 12 road ventures, this guy has an ERA Over 6. He has been terribly inconsistent in the process and it is no wonder why games he has thrown in have played to the OVER at 14-7 this year. He is having control issues in a Big Way with 23, 24, and 18 Pitches Per Inning Over this 3 game span. Working behind the count is not a good thing when throwing at the Best HR Hitting Team in the World here at this venue. O's Pen work has been OK here and Colorado's Pen work not so OK in this situation. Colorado has always been strong at Coors, but once again this year they have struggled when they travel possessing a 21-38 Mark. These are reasons why I will lay the runs for a Reverse Dog Opportunity.
SPORTS WAGERS
Sergey Kovalev by KO, TKO or DQ +138 over Nathan Cleverly
This is a significant light heavyweight fight with Nathan Cleverly’s WBO strap on the line. The odds are about even money on this fight which shows many may not have a firm take on how this fight may play out. Cleverly is certainly not an easy opponent to fight. He’s tall and rangy with fast hands. He has a very high work rate and an excellent engine, he can box if he chooses to or force the fight with quick hands and great conditioning and no one has beaten him yet. Cleverly is talking about making this fight like the Calzaghe vs. Lacy fight where Calzaghe, as an underdog, out-boxed and undressed Lacy seemingly ruining him forever. Cleverly is right to want to box with Kovalev but he’s making a big mistake in equating Kovalev to Lacy. Kovalev has only fought eight rounds once and Cleverly is tremendously well conditioned so he’ll will want to survive early and hope to drown Kovalev late in the fight. It’s a reasonable plan and we really don’t know Kovalev’s conditioning in a war of attrition.
Sergey Kovalev is a straight out destroyer. He’s also tall, although he’s a bit shorter than Cleverly and perhaps not as wide in the shoulders, but he brings genuine mind numbing power into his fights. Everything can be improved as a fighter but real punchers are born that way. Kovalev is blessed with tremendous leverage on shots that seem to bother guys even if blocked on the gloves. Cleverly has enough diversity to beat a one dimensional fighter with power but Kovalev brings more than that. He has a straight, fast, long and hard jab that gets him into punching range. He doesn’t get off balance and has a way of touching opponents right from the opening bell. He was able to break down slick technician and former champ Gabriel Campillo in three rounds and has stopped 9 straight fighters
Cleverly will run into problems in this fight and here’s why: while Cleverly has speed and skills, he often fights with his opponents. It has worked out because he had the edge in speed and conditioning and wasn’t too worried about return fire. That’s a big problem here because Sergey Kovalev is a banger, he is a boxer too and sets things up by boxing smartly. Kovalev he has ability and speed in his own right to get there. Cleverly isn’t likely to walk a 12 round tightrope and steal a decision. It isn’t the way he fights and Kovalev will not allow that. Kovalev will look to walk down the moving Cleverly with patience but bad intentions. There will be times when the fighters are involved in heated exchanges and both will land but Cleverly isn’t a huge hitter while Kovalev throws bricks. At some point they will mix and Kovalev will hurt Cleverly and end maters soon thereafter. This fight is not going the distance if Kovalev wins and it’s for that reason we’ll play the him by KO, TKO or DQ.