Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday August, 17

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers and Phillies open a three-game set at Miller Park in Milwaukee Friday evening where Yovanni Gallardo matches serves with Vance Worley. Gallardo tows the slab knowing he is in outstanding KW form with 43 strikeouts and 9 walks in his last six starts, while having won each of his last five team starts with a 1.72 ERA during the month of August. With the Phillies lineup decimated at this stage of the season, and Worley in struggling current form with 6 walks and 6 strikeouts in his last thee starts, we'll back the better arm here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers +121

Tommy Hanson is back from rehab and it's always worth being cautious against pitchers who've been idle for a while. Hanson may be 12-5 but he's walked 14 batters his last 14 innings (3 starts). That's why his ERA is 6.43 in those three starts. The Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Meanwhile the Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. National League East and have lefty Chris Capuano going (11-8, 3.11 ERA), whose been terrific. He is 5-3 in his career against Atlanta with a 2.64 ERA, including 1.29 this season. Play the Dodgers.

Chris Elliott

Arizona vs. Houston
Pick: Houston +1.5

Elliott is 5-2 in his last 7 Free Plays and is offering up an MLB spread pick! Enjoy and good luck betting!

The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid park on Friday evening.

Rookie Wade Miley will toe the rubber with an impressive record of 12-8, 3.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. In his last 4 road starts, he is 2-2 with a lofty 4.62 ERA. He has never pitched at Minute Maid Park.

Rookie Dallas Keuchel will counter for the Astros with a record of 1-4, 5.29 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Houston is 1-1 in his last 2 starts with back to back quality starts. He is 1-1 in 5 home starts this season with an ERA of 3.27. He has 4 quality starts in 5 home starts this season.

The Dbacks have been struggling of late with a record of 3-7 in their last 10 games overall and 2-6 in their last 8 road games.

The Astros have been poor all season however they have kept games close at home. In their past 10 home games, they have a record of 8-2 with +1.5 ATS.

Look for a solid pitching matchup between 2 young, up and coming lefties in this game. This game should be close down to the finish. Take the "Astros" to win +1.5 ATS.

Scott Spreitzer

Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Seattle heads into tonight's contest at SAFECO having won four of their last five games, including two wins each against the Angels and Rays. The level of competition drops in this one when the Minnesota Twins roll into town. Minnesota sends Nate Blackburn to the mound bringing his road baggage with him. Blackburn has been tagged for a 7.98 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and a .344 BAA in nine road starts this season. Seattle counters with an old rookie on Friday when 31-year old Japanese import Hisashi Iwakuma takes the bump. The righthander has pitched well, posting a 2.88 ERA & 1.28 WHIP in his last four outings. Iwakuma has made 11 appearances at SAFECO, including four starts and has posted a sub-3.00 ERA and an excellent .212 BAA. It's a huge pitching mismatch and we'll back the red-hot Mariners on Friday night.

Rob Vinciletti

Buffalo at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota

The Vikings are home off a lack luster 17-6 loss to face Buffalo who dropped a tight 7-6 game in their opener. The Vikings are 9-2 straight up with 10 spread wins vs AFC Teams here in the preseason. When they are favored they have covered 8 of the last 9 including 6-1 at home if they are under .500. The Bills are 4-14 straight up under coach Gailey including 0-8 straight up and to the spread on the road and are 0-3 straight up and to the spread vs NFC North Division teams. Look for Minnesota to get the win and cover tonight.

Brad Diamond

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Has hurler Vance Worley lost focus? In his last two starts the youngster has not made it out of the 6th inning. He will be supported by a Phillies unit that just blew another game for lefty Cliff Lee with horrible fielding antics. Philadelphia is not wholly a focused baseball team at this time. They are a disaster looking to happen again as they show at 1-7 in Friday encounters. Finally, the Brew Crew is 35-17 at home with Gallardo hitting the bump. Take a small ticket with Milwaukee.

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

James McDonald is pitching for his spot in the Pittsburgh rotation tonight. Jake Westbrook is clearly in superior form, but I just can't see the number being this high. Value play on the Pirates at a generous price.

DAVID BANKS

Detroit / Baltimore Under 39.5

Two of the best preseason coaches of recent times meet when Jim Schwartz and his Detroit Lions (0-1, 0-1 ATS) pay a visit to John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens (1-0, 1-1 ATS) Friday night from M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD at 8:00 ET on FOX. Although the Lions lost to the Cleveland Browns 19-17 in the preseason opener, that still leaves Schwartz at 10-3 straight up (9-4 ATS) as coach of the Lions. Meanwhile, the Ravens beat the Falcons 31-17 last week to improve to 11-2 straight up (9-4 ATS) under Harbaugh since 2009.

In truth, both teams struggled last week in the areas that are supposed to be their strengths, as the Lions sputtered on offense while the starters were in the game and the Baltimore starters struggled on defense. The Lions have one of the most potent passing attacks in the NFL, but you would not know it the way they performed vs. the Browns. Yes, it was only three drives, but the first Detroit series was a three-and-out, the second one ended with a Matthew Stafford interception and the third one ended with a punt before the reserves took over. Believe it or not, the back-up running backs performed very well, especially Joique Bell, who has yet to see any regular season action in his two years with the Lions, as he had an impressive 89 rushing yards on only 16 carries. In fact, Detroit rushed for 198 yards as a team on 33 carries for a whopping 6.00 yards per carry, and yet the projected opening day starter Kevin Smith rushed for only 28 of those yards. The Lions' defense was abysmal, allowing a supposedly weak quartet of Cleveland quarterbacks to pass for 309 yards.

Speaking of defense, the Ravens have had one of the best in football for a long time, and yet the Atlanta starters did whatever they wanted vs. the Baltimore stating defense. Those two starting units were on the field for four possessions, and the Ravens allowed Matt Ryan to complete 9 of his 13 passes for a generous 155 yards, with Julio Jones being on the receiving end of 109 of those yards in just under one quarter. Quarterback Joe Flacco had a nice night, completing 9 of his 12 passes for 88 yards with a touchdown and no picks before taking a seat. Ray Rice managed just four yards in three catties however, as the Ravens leading rusher on the evening was back-up quarterback Tyrod Taylor, the rookie out of Virginia Tech, who took off for 51 yards on just five scampers. His throwing accuracy left something to be desired though, as he completed only eight of his 17 passes for 64 yards. It was the former Colt Curtis Painter that tossed three touchdowns as the Ravens' reserves led them to the come-from behind win. Early word is that the Baltimore starters may play close to the entire first half of this game, and Rice for one can use the work after holding out and reporting late.

Coach Harbaugh is 3-1 in Week 2 of preseason with the Ravens while Schwarz is 2-1 in Week 2 as coach of the Lions. Detroit also falls into a fantastic preseason angle that has seen Week 2 underdogs coming off of a Week 1 loss go 62-25-2, 71.3 percent ATS since 2000.

Jesse Schule

Texas vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

The Blue Jays will host Texas in Game 1 of a three game set at Rogers Center tonight, coming off three straight losses at home. J.A. Happ will take the mound tonight, facing a dangerous Texas team that exploded for 10 runs against the Yankees yesterday.

Happ (1-1, 6.35) allowed four runs on six hits, going five innings in a 10-7 win over the Yankees in his last start. Prior to that he allowed four runs on seven hits in just over four innings, losing 4-1 to Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field. After struggling in his first start with the team, Happ seems to have settled into his new surroundings.

Texas will send Yu Darvish to the mound today, coming off a win his last time out. Darvish (12-8, 4.54 ERA) wasn't that impressive, allowing three runs on six hits, while walking five over six innings, but getting the victory in an 8-3 game versus the Tigers. Darvish has struggled with his command throughout the season, he's averaging 3.5 walks per game over his last 10 starts, and he's given out 15 free passes in his last three appearances.

Edwin Encarnacion is the most dangerous bat in the Blue Jays lineup with slugger Jose Bautista on the DL, and he has hit Darvish well in the past. Encarnacion is 4 for 5 with a home run against Darvish this year. His teammate Colby Rasmus has also had success against the right-hander, going 3 for 6 with a double.

The Blue Jays should be able to keep this game close, if they don't win outright.

JR O'Donnell

Tennessee Titans +3

Titans + 3 grab the $$$$$$ Friday Night.... The 2nd game will have these Titans start fast on the D end of things... Look for J Locker 20 to 25 snaps to improve as the last game they were pasted by the Sea Seahawks.. 27-17 loser l game. These Titans will look to win this ball game ... 2 key moves on the O line are ..Palmer & Jasper ( 375 lbs) ..2 huge additions... D head coach Jerry Gray wants the D to start strong as the 1st half is a play also!!! Tennessee + 3 and the Titans in the 1st half... Titans put up a great showing @ RJStadium....

SPORTS WAGERS

CINCINNATI -1½ +111 over Chicago

Travis Wood pitched against the Reds last week at Wrigley and threw a seven-inning gem, allowing five hits, one run and striking out eight. The wind was blowing in that day but the same conditions do not await him at Great American Ballpark, a stadium that allows 32% more home runs than Wrigley. That’s a big problem for Wood, who has surrendered 11 bombs over his last seven starts and who has a fly-ball bias profile of 42%. Wood is a below average lefty and the Reds are 22-13 against southpaws this season.

Chicago owns a road batting average of .231, the worst in the majors. They’ve won just 16 out of 58 road games.

Bronson Arroyo has enjoyed a revival this season. Not only are his surface stats (3.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) good, so too are his base skills. He has pinpoint control with just 24 walks in 144 frames to go along with his groundball bias profile. One explanation for Arroyo's resurgence could be his pitch mix. He is using his 87 mph fastball significantly less and is throwing more sliders and curveballs in its place. It has been Arroyo’s best year, skills wise, since his first full MLB season in 2004. He should have more success with plenty of run support in this one.

Tony Stoffo

Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9

I look for a higher scoring game here this evening with Darvish matching up with Happ in this spot. First off the Rangers have hit lefties well this season hitting .287 while scoring 5.4 runs a game. Look for them to easily get to Happ here tonight. While I feel the Blue Jays with have success against Darvish here as this will be the third straight lefty they will face in their last 3 games. Over this posted total the highly recommended play here this evening. Over is 6-0 in Darvishs last 6 starts overall. Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games following a loss. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

GoodFella

Tennessee Titans +2.5

I like the Titans plus the points here. Locker is starting and playing the 1st half, with veteran Hasselback who knows that he flat out fighting for his starting job with the much younger and more athletic Locker, so I do know that Matt will be hyper-motivated, and the same goes for Locker here, as he knows if he plays well, the starter job is his for the taking. The Titans are also going to feed the rock to Chris Johnson much more tonight, too. I'm not sold on this Bucs club, yes I was wrong on them in game at the Dolphins, but Miami was basically a no show in that game, so I do not put to much stock into the game (nor do I put much stock into any pre-season game really). I like having 2 very solid QB's who both will be extremely motivated for this practice game tonight, and I have the Titans winning out right, but will grab the +2.5 of course.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

NY YANKS -139 over Boston: Google News Play With the Orioles and Rays being as hot as they are I do not expect the Yanks to take this series so lightly. Phil Hughes has struggled in his last 2 starts, but both were on the road and he has pitched very well at home this year. Phil had a rough outing back in mid June at home vs the Braves, but since then he has gone 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA in his last 5 starts, while overall he is 8-3 with 3.74 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP at home. Also, in his last 3 starts here vs the Yanks he is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA. The Sox on offense haven't done very well vs righties away home, hitting just .251 and scoring 4.2 rp/9 off of them. Franklin Morales has pitched well for Boston and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 6 of his 7 starts this year, but his worse start of the year was vs the Yanks, in a game in which he allowed 6 ER's in just 3.2 innings of work. The Yanks offense averages 4.97 rpg at home, but vs leftioes they pit up 5.2 rp/9 innings. The Sox showed some heart in winning last night, but I feel that NY will play with plenty of heart in this series. Hughes pitches well at home and their offense should get to Morales like in the earlier game, give NY a solid win in game one here.

Minnesota/ Seattle Over 7.5: The Mariners do have problems scoring at home and their home games do average just 6.3 rpg, but I still feel these teams can get to 8 runs in this one. The Mariners do score just 3.07 rpg at home, but fear not because the Twins allow 5.14 rpg on the road and Blackburn has been awful of late and on the road this year. Nick comes in with a 7.94 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP away from home and his road starts have averaged 9.3 rpg. He also has a 6.79 ERA at night, despite a winning record (4-3) and those starts have averaged 10.36 rpg). Nick has allowed 4 ER's or more in 8 of his last 10 and once he is out of there we could also get some runs off of a Minnesota pen that has struggled at times this year. Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched very well for Seattle, especially, at home where he has a 2.97 ERA, but still overall his ERA is 4.16 and 3.55 at night, so he can give up some runs and Minnesota can score some. The Twins average 4.14 rpg on the road, but 4.56 rpg in Nicks road starts and 5.27 rpg in his night starts. In their last 10 games overall Minnesota has averaged 5.2 rpg, including 5.66 rp/ 9 off of righties over that stretch. I really see both teams hitting at least 4 runs in this one as the game flirts with 10 runs.

Philadelphia/ Milwaukee Over 8: It's a good thing we have a couple of bad pens for this one. Theses teams have met 4 times this year and the winner has scored 7 runs in each game. Just one more for a push then. Wish it was that easy. Still at least 11 runs have been scored in each of the 4 games and I see more of the same in this one. Vance Worley has pitched well on the road for the Phils this year, with a 2.59 ERA, but his pen has been shaky behind him as the Phils have allowed 4.89 rpg in his road starts. Vance has averaged 6.1 innings per game on the road and he has allowed 23 total runs and the pen has come in and allowed 21 runs after he has left. That should mean some late runs from Milwaukee in this one. Milwaukee scores very well in the own park as they have averaged 5.42 rpg game here and 4.96 rpg in Yovanni's home starts. The Phils score 4.3 rpg on the road, compared to 3.9 at home and they have scored 25 runs vs Milwaukee pitching this year. Now Yovanni does have a good ERA vs the Phils (1.55 in 3 starts vs them), but he has a similar problem that Vance has and that's a weak pen behind him. Yovani has gone 6.30 innings per home start and has allowed 33 total runs, while the pen has come in behind him and given up 25 runs. Let's just hope that both starters don't go the distance here. LOL. I don't think they well as both teams are playing loose offensively, knowing that they are out of the playoff picture. Look for about 10 runs in this one.