Jack Jones
Los Angeles Angels -153
The Los Angeles Angels were shut out 7-0 last night by David Price and the Tampa Bay Rays. Ace Jered Weaver will be hungry to one-up Price tonight and get his team back in the win column as the Angels look to gain ground on the Rays in the AL Wildcard race.
Weaver has posted Cy Young-like numbers this season, going 15-2 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.920 WHIP in 21 starts. The right-hander has been untouchable at home, going 8-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.685 WHIP in 10 starts. His home ERA is the best in baseball.
James Shields has taken a step back from last season, going 10-7 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.314 WHIP in 24 starts. He is still a solid starter, but he's not even on the same planet as Weaver, who is 4-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in seven career starts against Tampa Bay.
The Angels are 44-14 in Weaver's last 58 starts as a home favorite, including 11-1 in his last 12 starts as a home favorite of -125 to -175. Los Angeles is 7-0 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. American League East and 8-0 in his last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Angels Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago White Sox -149
The White Sox have won 5 of their last 6 on the road, and they'll have an excellent opportunity to build on this run with Chris Sale on the mound.
Sale has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He's 14-3 with an ERA of 2.62 in 20 starts. The White Sox are 6-1 in his last 7 starts, 7-1 in Sales last 8 starts versus a team with a losing record, 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 5-2 in his last 7 road starts. Sale has won his last 2 versus Kansas City in dominant fashion.
Luis Mendoza, meanwhile, who is 5-7 with a 4.34 ERA in 16 starts has lost his last two against the White Sox. The Royals are 2-5 in Mendoza's last 7 starts as a home underdog and 1-4 in his last 5 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take the White Sox.
NFL Betting Picks
Lions / Ravens Over 39.5
The Lions hosted the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 of preseason play and lost 19-17. Matthew Stafford didn’t get much work going 4 for 7 for 51 yards throwing a pick, but back up Shaun Hill looked good going 8 for 12 for 83 yards and 1 Touchdown. Joique Bell got most of the touches at running back going for 89 yards on 16 attempts. Look for Stafford to get some more snaps in tonight with his number one offense. Stafford threw for 5038 yards last season with a QB rating of 97.2 as the threw 41 TDs and just 16 INTs. Shaun Hill and Kellen Moore will probably split the second half, and should be able to help the Lions score some points to help push this game over the total. The Ravens scored 31 points in a 31-17 win over Atlanta in their preseason opener. Flacco looked solid going 9 for 12 for 88 yards and Touchdown in the reps he got. We also saw Curtis Painter and Tyrod Taylor, with Painter completing 50% of his passes with 3 TDs. Taylor used his legs almost as much as his arm running for 51 yards on 5 attempts while throwing for 64 yards. It is worth noting that both teams lit up their Week 2 preseason games last season, when the starters got in for more reps. Detroit won 30-28 in Cleveland, while Baltimore beat Kansas City at home 31-13. Two solid offenses, which include some above average depth. I expected a total in the 40′s and we will take the OVER again tonight with a total set at 39.5.
Ian Cameron
Montreal at Edmonton
Play: Montreal +2.5
There has been some significant line movement on the Edmonton side upon news that Montreal will be without RB Brandon Whitaker and WR Jamel Richardson ande RB Cory Boyd makes his anticipated debut with the Edmonton Eskimos. Edmonton has risen from an opener of -1 to -2.5. I don’t completely agree with it for a couple of reasons. The main reason I’m recommending the Alouettes despite those injuries is because I don’t believe Montreal QB Anthony Calvillo, the greatest QB in CFL history who leads the league in all-time passing yards, should be an underdog to a vastly inferior QB on the other side in Stephen Jyles.
Montreal has owned and dominated this series going 4-0 SU over the last two years. We saw Winnipeg take care of business last night in a win over Hamilton after they swept the season series last year. Sometimes when you have a team’s number, it can carry over. Those four Montreal wins over Edmonton in 2010 and 2011 came when Ricky Ray was the man under center for the Eskimos but now it’s the much less capable Jyles. This brief QB comparison gives you an idea of the disparity between these two starters: Calvillo has a strong 62.4 completion percentage, 13-4 TD-INT ratio and 2,001 passing yards. Jyles has a 59.6 completion percentage, 4-3 TD-INT ratio and 1,275 passing yards. In the limited playing time they’ve received, I’ve been impressed with the RB duo of Victor Anderson (Louisville) and Noel Devine (West Virginia). They will be splitting time in the backfield for the injured Brandon Whitaker. Edmonton’s defense gave up the most yards they have all season last week despite winning the game against Saskatchewan which to me indicates a potential sign of regression for what has been a largely dominant defense. Keep in mind Edmonton ranks 7th out of 8 CFL teams in pass defense allowing over 300 yards through the air per game and that’s a concern facing the prolific Calvillo. He still has plenty of weapons in the receiving corps with S.J. Green, Brandon London, Brian Bratton and Eric DesLauriers so the absence of Richardson shouldn’t completely hurt the Alouettes’ offense.
Montreal’s defense has struggled at times this season but they had their best performance in their last game two weeks ago and coming off a bye, I expect them to find the going a bit easier against Jyles. The spot is in Montreal’s favor here off a bye and they have the better QB so despite the injury concerns, I’m going to fade the steam here and recommend a small play on Montreal.
Teddy Covers
Buffalo at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -2.5
The Vikings couldn’t do anything last week. Their defense allowed 23 first downs and a whopping 260 rushing yards. Held to just a pair of field goals, their offense sputtered no matter who was under center. This week though is going to be different!
First of all, the Vikings have adjusted their QB rotation. After Christian Ponder – a young QB with something to prove – sits, they’ll have Joe Webb and Sage Rosenfels taking snaps. Webb is the type of run/pass threat who’s always dangerous in the preseason. Rosenfels – a former starting QB with Houston who is replacing disastrous Sacramento State product McLeod Bethel-Thompson in the rotation this week – has enjoyed more than a handful of big second halves in the preseason throughout the course of his career.
Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave: “We didn’t get the result that we are always shooting for in terms of lighting up the scoreboard (last week); so we’re looking forward to making up for that, starting this week. We were disappointed in the production…. It was tough conditions for any of us that were there with the wind (in San Francisco). We had some drops and we also had some misfires. This week has been good (in practice). We’ve been productive so far in making corrections of the mistakes we made.”
The Bills backup QB duo of Vince Young and Tyler Thigpen struggled mightily last week, combining to produce a single field goal drive in their nine combined possessions. From multiple reports, Young has struggled to pick up Chan Gailey’s offense in his first training camp with the Bills. Thigpen hasn’t enjoyed any success in preseason or regular season since about 2008 with the Chiefs. And Gailey has yet to win a road preseason game during his three year tenure in Buffalo, losing three of his four tries by two touchdowns or more.
Tony George
Bills +2.5
QB rotation not withstanding, I still love the Bills here. Looking to bolster their QB depth, look for Vince Young and a very underrated Tyler Thigpen to both see substainsal action tonight in Minny. Speaking of QB's, the Vikes QB spot is not as good as Buffalo's 2nd teamer right now. Trial and error for Minny who looked bad against San Fran last week. Road teams that are dogs BOth won last night and many had success in week 1. Buffalo's defense is solid and quiter frankly even early on in the season, Buffalo far deeper and better than Minny who is trying out multiple things on offense. BIlls by a TD
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +155 over L.A. ANGELS
Jered Weaver is the front-runner for the Cy Young award with a 15-2 record and 2.22 ERA but he does not possess the skills of a 15-game winner (to this point) and this low of an ERA. With a 23% hit rate, 81% strand rate and 5% HR/Fly-ball to help fuel his surface stats, no pitcher has had more good fortune than Weaver. He also has a groundball/fly-ball split of 37%/41%, which is not conducive to a pitcher that is 13 games above .500. Don’t get us wrong, Weaver is an adequate pitcher but he’s overvalued because of his unsupported surface stats
After taking the opener last night, the Rays are 6-1 against the Halos this year while allowing just eight runs in the seven games. Tampa’s pitchers continue to dominate this line-up and James Shields is a pitcher who is on fire with full skills support. Not only has Shields become a groundball pitcher this season (54% GB%), he also has added velocity to his fastball, which now averages 92 mph. Shields has pitched seven full innings or more in seven of his past nine starts. His xERA over that stretch was .2.85. He’s allowed two runs or less in three straight and with a misleading 4.02 ERA, he remains an excellent buy low target.
The Rays are playing above .700 (15-6) over the team’s last 21 games. That surge has them on solid footing in the AL Wildcard race, if not the race for the AL East flag. Regardless of outcome, James Shields and the Rays taking back +155 aga8inst a team they’ve owned this year is about as good as it gets.
Ross King
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5
Houston is the worst team in baseball and is 8-22 versus the National Leauge West and 7-37 overall in the last 44 meetings.Houston is currently 24-64 after a loss.Arizona is 13-4 versus Houston the last 3 seasons and 3-0 this year.Arizona is 6-1 at Houston the last 3 seasons.The last time Arizona seen Keubell they lit him uo for 7 runs in 3 innings.Take Arizona on the runline as they have no room for errors against bad teams if they have any chance to make the postseason again.
Greg Shaker
Tennessee Titans -2
It would have been nice to get the +3 here but the line moved fairly quickly and we did not. Nevertheless I do think that Tennessee wins this game and most likely will not need any points at all. They do have a strong QB Battle and because of that, they are going to give their better receivers a longer stretch of activity as they look long and hard at both QB's. That should be good for us here as Locker actually gets the start tonight with the better catchers on the field.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Buffalo +2.5 over MINNESOTA Google News Play Both teams showed nothing on offense last week, but Buffalo played great defense, while Minnesota struggled. Minnesota did take the field without three key defenders, however, with defending NFL sack champion Jared Allen, tackle Kevin Williams and cornerback Antoine Winfield each getting the night off as a veteran courtesy. All are slated to play in Friday's matchup, but still this was not a great defense last year and it doesn't look lie they will be much improved this year even with their starters in there. Even if they play a bit better than last week, there offense still must go up against a Buffalo defense that is very excited about the coming year. Last week they held what should be an improved Washington offense to 87 rushing yards, 166 passing yards overall and just seven points. Without Peterson and once Ponder is out of there the Vikings just don't have any or enough offense to put up enough points to win this one. Look for Buffalo outright here.
Jeff Alexander
NY Yankees -135
The Yankees have won 9 of their last 13 versus the Red Sox, and I expect them to continue their dominance over their biggest rivals tonight. One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against New York at home with Hughes on the hill. That's because the Yankees are 37-14 in his last 51 home starts, including 9-3 this season. They are 36-10 in his last 46 starts as a home favorite. Lastly, the Red Sox are 4-11 in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Take New York on the run line.
Dave Price
Colorado Rockies -130
Fading the Fish here as they are 8-21 in their last 29 road games and 1-5 in their last 6 in Colorado. The Rockies have won 4 in a row, and they are 9-4 in Francis' last 13 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Francis is also 3-0 on the money line with an ERA of 1.42 in 3 career starts vs. the Marlins. Bet the Rockies.
Chuck O'Brien
Not only have the Colorado Rockies won four in a row, but tonight they're getting to go after Miami Marlins left-hander Wade LeBlanc, who is 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA in his career against the Rox.
Just like Ricky Nolasco last night, LeBlanc is going to struggle in thin-aired Denver tonight, as the Rockies have been playing well and would love nothing more than to continue a little surge so they can manuever themselves out of the cellar in the National League West.
And if you didn't realize we were taking a last-place team, don't worry, we're going against one too. The Marlins, who some said were going to win the National League this season, are sitting 12-1/2 back in the Wild Card standings, and 20-1/2 games back of the Washington Nationals in the N.L. East.
And even though the Rockies have a worse record than the Marlins, overall, right now Colorado is the better team.
2♦ COLORADO
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Detroit Tigers and Baltimore Orioles to go UNDER the posted total.
This is an interesting game for a number of reasons.
For starters, we're talking about two of the better teams in the American League. You wouldn't know it, however, by looking at the Vegas money line. They have Verlander and the Tigers listed as a hefty -280 favorite while Tommy Hunter and the Orioles can earn you $245-$260 on a mere $100 wager.
Talk about potential value!! And considering the Orioles actually have a better overall record than the Tigers and own the 4th-best record in the American League, a small wager on the Orioles might not be a bad idea.
But I'm going with the under because these two pitchers seem to dominate their opponent.
Granted, Tommy Hunter hasn't been in the league as long as Verlander, but he sports a 2-0 record in two career starts vs. the Tigers (14 IP), allowing just one earned run for an ERA of 0.64. The Tigers have hit just .163 against him in those two games and aren't even getting one runner per inning on base.
Obviously the Tigers are big favorites for a reason, but it can't be the fact the Tigers are at home, can it? No, it's not. Verlander is 7-0 in 10 career starts vs. the Orioles with a 2.71 ERA and 1.03 WHIP... not to mention the fact that his last meeting with them saw him throw only 95 pitches in a shutout win.
I don't care who wins... just don't score!! Tigers/Birds UNDER is your free play of the day.
2♦ BALTIMORE-DETROIT UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Over in the Boston-New York battle in the Bronx.
These teams are now meeting for the 10th time this season, and right now the over/under ledger is a little Over heavy, as four of the last five and six of the nine meetings overall have landed in the Over column.
Look for the Over to come through again, as Phil Hughes' 11 runs allowed his last 8-plus innings of work does not instill much confidence in this game turning into a pitcher's duel.
Each of Hughes' last four starts have ended up playing High. Hughes is making his third start of the year against Boston, and thus far he has lasted just over 12 innings while allowing 15 hits, and 6 runs to score. Both of his previous starts against the Red Sox have landed Over the total.
Franklin Morales counters for Boston, and this is his second start of the year against the Yankees. In his first back on July 7th, Morales allowed 6 runs on 6 hits in just over 3 innings pitched.
Have to expect the runs to add up here.
Make it a 7-3 Over run in the season series between the Red Sox and the Yankees.
4♦ BOSTON-N.Y. YANKEES OVER