Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 19,2011

John Ryan

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on the Washington Nationals in a National League East matchup set to start at 7:05 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game. The Phillies are beginning to make plans for their post-season run to another World Championship and the Nationals are preparing for next season. The Phillies lead in the National League East and for best record in the National League is large enough that Washington can?t even play the role of spoiler in this game and weekend series. Washington trails the Phillies by 21 games in the division and there are a dozens of reasons why this lead is so large. The Phillies continue to demonstrate against all National League opponents why they are the best team in the majors. They currently sport the best starting rotation, a very strong and vastly under rated bullpen, and now an offense that has really come together with the addition of Hunter Pence. The Phillies rank 13th in the majors with 539 runs scored, 16th with a .253 team batting average, 10th with a .324 on-base-percentage, and 15th with a .396 slugging-percentage. By comparison, Washington ranks 24th in the majors scoring 471 runs, 29th with a paltry .240 team batting average, 25th with a .308 on-base-percentage, and 22nd with a .378 slugging percentage. The biggest disparity between these two teams is pitching where the Phillies have huge edge. The Phillies rank best with a 3.08 staff ERA, best with 81 quality starts, best with a 1.16 WHIP, and fourth allowing a .240 opponent batting average. The Nationals rank 14th with a 3.73 staff ERA, 21st with 63 quality starts, 20th with a 1.33 WHIP, and 20th allowing a .260 opponent batting average. At the start of the season Roy Oswalt was the number three ace of the four ace staff. He made his last start June 23 before going on the disabled list with lower back strains, which has plagued him in recent seasons. The difference now is that he was not rushed back to the rotation before all was completely healed and is now poised for a strong finish. In his two starts since coming of the disabled list he has allowed three earned runs exact in each and pitched six innings at San Francisco and seven innings in last start against these Nationals. Oswalt has a tremendous curve ball that was very effective in his last start. Batters are hitting just .176 on that pitch and he will throw it nearly twice as much to left-handed batters than right-handed ones. This is very rare at any level of baseball as a curve ball is effective with it?s movement running away from the batter and not into the wheel house. However, he has such great control that he can throw the curve for his ?out? pitch and target the outer half of the plate. For right-handed batters he prefers to use a hard and late breaking slider. Batters are hitting just .230 on that pitch and he throws it 14% of the time whether behind or ahead in the count. So, the batter has to be aware that on any given pitch the slider could be thrown and this serves to keep right-handed batters guessing. Livan Hernandez will take to the hill for the Nationals and he just defeated the Phillies 4-2 August 12 allowing no earned runs on four hits spanning 6 2/3 innings of work. he is an off speed specialist with tremendous movement with his pitches serving to keep batters off balance. However, the Phillies are a very patient team and having the chance to go out him again this soon will certainly be a significant advantage for them. For the season Hernandez has posted a 7-11 record with a 4.21 ERA and 1.391 WHIP spanning 25 starts. Charlie Manuel has done very well against starters like Hernandez since being the Phillies skipper. He has posting a 102-54 mark making 31.0 units per one unit wagered against the money line when facing an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450. Take the Philadelphia Phillies.

Marc Lawrence

Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

The Pale Hose and Rangers open a three game series at Comiskey Park where Jake Peavy takes on Matt Harrison Friday night. Peavy enters in rock-solid KW form with two walks and 16 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 14-6 in his last 20 home team starts during the month of August. With that look for Peavy to improve to 3-0 against the A.L West here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Hollywood Sports

Lions at Eskimos
Play: Under

The Canadian Football League always gives four teams a bye in the two weeks leading up to their Labour Day in September and this break in the schedule (quite remarkably) means we are almost halfway through the regular season already. Six of the eight CFL teams with qualify for the playoffs which means that one of the three teams currently saddled with a 1-6 record will still find themselves in the playoffs. Unfortunately, all three of these teams are playing this week. I say "unfortunately" because it is hard to predict which teams will complete their first-half collapse and enter the bye-week with a likely clearing of the proverbial house and which teams will rally to separate themselves from the pack and enter their bye week with some momentum. Perhaps the two worst teams in the league are Saskatchewan and Toronto -- and they face off on Thursday. The Roughriders have placed ten players on their nine-week injured reserve. They enter this game last in scoring offense (21.0 PPG) and scoring defense (32.7 PPG). But they were encouraged with their 45-35 loss to a very good Calgary team last week where they outgained the Stampeders by 153 total yards. Given that this team still retains the core group of players that has played in the Grey Cup the last two seasons, who could be surprised if this team rallies here -- or self destructs? Toronto has had the scheduling disadvantage of playing five of their first seven games on the road. But this is just the second week under new defensive coordinator Orlondo Steinauer who took over a massively underachieving unit from the one that was best in the CFL last year. The Argonauts' defense is second to last in points allowed (30.7 PPG) while dead last in yards allowed (416.3 YPG) -- and they come off a 37-32 loss to Hamilton in Steinauer's debut. The Argo's offense is second-to-last in scoring (22.9 PPG) and 6th in yardage (356 YPG). But they do finally have RB Cory Boyd healthy again and really need last year's CFL leader in all-purpose yards. This game has PASS written all over it. Then British Columbia (1-6) travels to Edmonton (5-2) in their "must-win" game before their bye week. The Lions only have -5.0 net point differential and rallied to make the playoffs off a poor start last year. They play an Eskimos team that may be returning to their 6-10 form last season having lost two games in a row. Taking the 6.5 or so points that the home team is laying is intriguing for BC. But Edmonton is 3-0 at home this year with an average winning margin of +11.7 PPG. And their offensive and defensive numbers are both much better than what the Lions have done. Frankly, the best play out there this week is to take the Under in this contest. QB Travis Lulay will start in this game after being benched last week in BC's loss to Winnipeg. But he is leading an offense scoring only 23.9 PPG (6th in the CFL) and averaging just 353.3 total YPG (7th in the CFL) due mostly to a non-existent rushing attack that is last in the league (83.7 YPG). The Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total -- and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Eskimos' defense is much improved this year as they are 2nd in the CFL in points allowed (22.0 PPG) and 4th in points allowed (374.1 YPG). Edmonton has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total which can, in part, be explained by their stalled offense that managed just 4 points in their 27-4 loss to Montreal. The best situation out there is the BC/Edmonton Under this week while hoping that the situations will be more enticing for the two games next week.

Nick Parsons

Phillies @ Nationals
PICK: Under

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

Coming into Thursday the Phillies are 79-42; 43-20 at home and 36-22 on the road.

Philadelphia has seen the total go "under" the number in 57 of 113 this season (with eight "pushes").

Roy Oswalt (5-7, 3.84 ERA) heads to the hill for the visitors; in his last start Oswalt faced Washington on August 13th and got the victory to improve to 5-7.

Oswalt has been decent in his two starts since coming off the shelf, giving up six runs over 13-frames of work, with nine punch-outs and an overall 1-1 record.

In the other dugout: Coming into Thursday the Nats are 58-63 this; 33-24 at home and 25-39 on the road.

Washington has seen the total go "under" the number in 58 of 118 games (with three "pushes").

Livan Hernandez (7-11, 4.21 ERA) toes the rubber for the home side; Hernandez is also coming off a strong start vs. the Phillies last time out and is 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA vs. them this year.

Bottom line: The opener of a new series, with a couple of quality starters going head to head on Friday night; why not consider a wager on the "under" in this contest?

David Chan

Indians @ Tigers
PICK: Under

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sneak below the posted number.

Josh Tomlin (12-5, 3.97 ERA) gets the start for the Tribe.

Tomlin is coming off his first win in almost a month on Saturday vs. the Twins in which he pitched shutout ball into the seventh frame before giving up the only run Minnesota would score.

He finished by yielding four hits in 6 1/3 innings, striking out two, with a single walk in the 3-1 victory.

Tomlin looks to carry momentum from that contest into this one vs. Max Scherzer (12-7, 4.37 ERA) who got his 12th win of the year last Saturday vs. the Orioles despite giving up five runs on seven hits over seven innings of work.

Note that Scherzer is 1-0 with a 5.12 ERA in two starts vs. the Indians this year; with another victory, Scherzer will set an all time high for victories in a season.

Scherzer has been particularly effective at home where he's 5-3 with a 3.63 ERA.

This has all the makings of a classic "pitchers-duel"; all signs point to a low-scoring affair!

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

It's too late for the Rockies to turn things around like they did late in 2007. This team has a losing record both home and away, underachieving all year. You can't start a winning streak with Jason Hammel, who has a 7.63 ERA his last three starts and a terrible 76-60 strikeout to walk ratio. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record and have red-hot Hiroki Kuroda on the hill, with a 2-1 record and a sizzling 1-33 ERA his last three starts, walking 4 while fanning 14! And the Rockies are 6-13 in Hammel's last 19 starts. Play the LA Dodgers.

Sam Martin

Lions at Browns
Play: Over

Both the Lions and Browns put up good offensive numbers in their Preseason wins last week, and we look for both offenses to continue to have success here tonight, especially through the air. Cleveland's secondary was ripe for the taking early against Green Bay, and Aaron Rogers, after doing nothing in his first series, marched the Packers right down the field while giving Green Bay a lead at halftime. Detroit played well defensively against Cincinnati, but we attribute most of that to the inability of Cincy to do anything with their young players and new system. Look for both teams to pass early and often, and we look for both teams to finish in the 20's, sending this game well over the total.

Vegas Experts

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals

We have been rolling this week with four straight victories on this page. Might as well back the Phillies today as this price is not bad all things considered. Following yesterday's 4-1 over Arizona, Philly is now 72-32 as a favorite this season, including 30-14 on the road. They are 7-4 head to head with the Nats this season and 42-19 overall vs. teams with a losing record. Washington is averaging only three runs per game the last week.

Play on: Philadelphia

Matt Fargo

St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are trying to hang around in the National League Central as they are now 6.5 games behind the Brewers and at this point, every game counts. The want to get Jaime Garcia back to his stellar pitching from before as he is rising a four-start non-quality outing streak. He has struggled on the road overall but he does have a solid 2.59 ERA over his last four road starts. Facing the Cubs is a perfect remedy for him to bust out of his funk as he has a 1.71 ERA in three career starts, all of which have been quality efforts. Randy Wells is coming off a pretty good start and those have been few and far between. He allowed just two runs in five innings at Atlanta which was a success as he has been horrid on the road. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up at home either of late though. He tossed two quality outings in his first three home starts but since then he has posted a dreadful 6.03 ERA in his last five home starts. The Cubs are 2-7 in his last nine starts as a home underdog while the Cardinals are 5-2 in their last seven roadies against righty starters. 3* St. Louis Cardinals

Frank Jordan

Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

Mets have lost six of 10 and are just 25-32 at home. Milwaukee has won eight of 10 despite loss last time out. The road has not been kind to Milwaukee as they are ten games under .500 on the road. Look for the Brewers to improve that road record as they beat up the Mets. Play Milwaukee

Ben Burns

Cleveland Indians @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers

While the Indians were busy beating the White Sox, the Tigers had the day off yesterday. Given today's pitching matchup and the fact that the Tigers are a profitable 17-4 (+11.3) as a host in this series the past few seasons, I feel that the current price is reasonable.

Scherzer gets the call for the home team. He's got a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in 13 starts here, recording 62 K's to just 22 walks. The Tigers are a lucrative 9-4 (+3.1) in those games.

Admittedly, Tomlin has pitched well his last couple of times out. However, he's still got a poor 4.88 ERA in 12 road starts. The Indians are 5-7 (-1.3) in those games.

Tomlin's lone career start here at Detroit also came against Scherzer and was almost a year ago, to the day. That 8/21/2010 start saw Tomlin get rocked for five runs in six innings. Scherzer's Tigers won by a score of 5-2.

The Tigers, who arguably have the better lineup overall, have been tough off a loss and excellent against divisional opponents. I feel they've got an excellent shot at continuing their recent homefield dominance in this series. Consider Detroit.

Scott Spreitzer

Orioles @ Angels
PICK: Angels -1.5

Rookie of the Year candidate Mark Trumbo slammed a 2-run homer in the bottom of the ninth last night to salvage the final game of a 4-game series with the Texas Rangers. Trumbo's walk-off winner should propel this team to a big weekend over the Orioles. The Halos know they still have a chance to catch Texas with six head-to-head meetings remaining to be played, but they also understand they can't lose a golden opportunity with Dan Haren facing Jo-Jo Reyes. The former Toronto hurler has lasted a grand total of just 10 innings in his two starts with Baltimore. He's allowed 20 earned runs and 33 base runners in his last four starts, overall, spanning just 19 2/3 innings. That's a hefty 9.14 ERA & 1.68 WHIP. Dan Haren has enjoyed his starts against the Orioles throughout his career, and he's been nothing short of outstanding at Angel Stadium since becoming an Angel last season. Haren owns a 2.29 ERA & 0.93 WHIP in his last 21 trips to the home bump in Anaheim. I don't believe he'll be challenged in this one. I'm laying the run line with the Angels on Friday night.

BIG AL

Blue Jays @ Athletics
PICK: Over

Perhaps when the Oakland A's signed free agent righthander Rich Harden to a contract last December, they figured that a return to the Bay Area would mean that the A's would see the Rich Harden who pitched for them in the first five years of his Major League career from 2003 to 2007. During that time - as he was in his early twenties - Harden looked like he could be one of the most dominating pitchers in the American League until injuries ultimately limited his starts and the A's finally gave up on him at just 25 years old. Unfortunately, now at 29, Harden has not captured that old Oakland magic in 2011 and he has again fought through injury at the start of the season and after only eight starts the hard-throwing strikeout artist has a 3-2 record and 4.50 ERA. The Red Sox had all but completed a deal for Harden at the trade deadline, but ended up changing their mind at the last minute with concerns about Harden's health. Harden has been susceptible to both walks and homers this season, a sign that perhaps he is still battling various ailments. The amazing string of Oakland games going over the total in the second half of the season continues as the over is now 24-2-5 in the last 31 A's games heading into Friday. Take the 'over.'

Tom Freese

Cleveland Indians vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

Home field advantage plays a big role when these teams play as Cleveland is 13-1 at home facing the Tigers, but 4-17 in Detroit. The Tigers had yesterday off while the Indians did not. Max Scherzer has a 6-1 TSR this season when working on five or six days rest. He is in great form with a 130-45 KW ratio for the season, including 16-2 L3 starts. Cleveland's Josh Tomlin has a 4.88 ERA on the road where the team has lost his last three starts.