Bryan Power
SF Giants @ Houston Astros
PICK: Houston Astros
The Astros are having a horrible year, but they do enter tonight's contest w/ the Giants off back to back victories and tonight will look to make it three in a row with their best starter on the hill. Lefty Wandy Rodriguez has a 15-7 team start record in the home underdog role the last three seasons. Tonight, he'll be facing a Giants lineup that is averaging only 3.3 runs/game vs. southpaws. The good news for Houston fans (all five of them?) is that Rodriguez has followed his previous three losses with a win. Last time, he was off a loss in his previous start, he threw six scoreless innings at Arizona, giving up only two hits. San Francisco is in danger of missing the playoffs entirely as they have dropped 14 of 20 to fall 2.5 games behind division leading Arizona. Losing three of four in their most recent series with Atlanta put them six games back in the Wild Card. Don't make the mistake of falling for the Giants here. 5* on Houston.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Kansas City +7 over BALTIMORE: Talk about a game of motivation. The Kanasas City Chiefs played a horrible preseason game last week vs the Bucs and I expect a much more focused this time out. Adding to their focus may be the fact that they were bounced from the playoffs last year vs this same Ravens team, 30-7. Last week the Chiefs were really unprepared for that game vs the Bucs and it showed on offense where they were learning a new playbook and had little time to learn it. This week I expect the KC 1st team offense to be on the field much more than last week as Todd Haley will look to get the 1st team as much game experience as possible. The Defense also struggled last week, but with more focus they should have a better showing vs a Ravens offense that also had problems last week. I just don't see the Chiefs playing as bad as they did last week and even if they don't win outright here they will be able to keep it close. We all know that Todd Haley has not been good in the preseason, but the Ravens are 20-40 ATS in all preseason games since 1993 including an 11-24 ATS mark as a favorite in that same time frame. Ravens by no more than a FG.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Green Bay/ Arizona Over 37.5: Preseason week 2 is the week is a week where the starters see more action and these two offenses will be good this year. Reports out of Arizona are that Kolb has done a great job of digesting the playbook this so far and he should have a good game here. One other thing for Kolb is he will be playing with a healthy offense. He will also be going up against a Packers defense that is hurting as Clay Mathews and DE Mike Neal are doubtful, plus Saftey Brandon Underwood and 2 other defensive players are out. For Green Bay they put up 263 yards passing last week and with Aaron Rogers and the 1st team offense getting more playing time this week they could put up even better number vs an Arizona defense that allowed Oakland to throw for 234 yards last week. The Over is 27-12 in preseason games when the Packers are a favorite, including 14-4 when they are faves of 3.5 to 9.5, since 1993. Week 1 saw both teams play games in the 40's and I see more of the same here.
6 POINT TEASER--- Baltimore/ Kansas City Under 39 & Green Bay/ Arizona Over 31.5: You really didn't think I wouldn't have a teaser tonight did you? LOL
2 UNIT PLAY
Indianapolis/ Washington Over 34.5: Last week John Beck sat out and watched Rex Grossman go 19 of 26 for 207 yards. The two are battling for the starters spot so I look for him to have a good game. He will play for much of the first half before giving way to Rex, who had a solid game last week. The Colts defense was good last week as they allowed just 342 yards to the rams, but 3 TO's helped st Louis put 33 points on the board. I can see Painter, who will play much of the first half, coughing up the ball a few more times here vs a tough Washington defense, which could create some easy scores. The Washington defense was tough last week, but I do see this Colts offense playing better than they did last week, plus with beck getting his first start he may cough up the ball a few times, which should give the Colts a short field or two for easy scores. The over is 26-11 since 1993 when the Colts are a preseason dog, plus the over is 5-0 in the Colts last 5 week 2 games. This game should approach 40 points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami -6 over Carolina
With all the attention on the "U" this week, the Dolphins are an afterthought in Miami this week and it should allow them to focus on nothing but football and the task at hand. That task is getting ready for the opener and the Dolphins are doing just that. They won their preseason opener in Atlanta and the regulars are going to get even more playing time this week, playing at least two quarters and possibly more. Despite winning, the Fish were not sharp at all last week and this is a chance to get much sharper against a weak Carolina club. The Panthers won their preseason opener last week at home against the uninterested Giants. Cam Newton went 8-19 for 123 yards and he’s expected to start again, followed by Derek Anderson and Jimmy Claussen. What’s interesting is that on Aug. 17, 2008, when Mike Nolan was the 49ers’ head coach, his team blitzed like crazy during a preseason home game against the Packers when Aaron Rodgers was making his starting debut for Green Bay. The 49ers sacked him twice and had six sacks in the game. Nolan doesn’t want a rookie demoralizing his unit so expect him to unleash on Newton. Chad Henne will start for the Dolphins and Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas and Brandon Marshall should all see significant playing time. It’s also worth noting that Miami has not won a home game since last November, which makes this game at Sun Life even more important. Preseason games are not supposed to mean anything but the Fish desperately need a win at home in front of a near-packed house of restless fans and the Panther are the perfect victims. Play: Miami –6 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
B.C. Lions +5½/+206 over Edmonton
The Eskimos only two losses this year has come against Montreal and Winnipeg and that pair is a combined 11-3. Having said that, Edmonton has also looked extremely flawed for the past three games and pulled a rabbit out of their hats to beat the Argos on July 29. Injuries have played a part in their declining play and they still have a bunch of key players out. Not sure that Edmonton is a team you want to be spotting points with right now, even against the Lions. B.C. was in a similar position last year in that they started the year off horribly and then went on a tear to make the playoffs. However, things appear to be coming apart for the Leos, as Travis Lulay was pulled last week and a bunch of regulars were benched. This is a defining week for B.C. and should they throw another stinker, big changes will be made. Even with all that adversity, the Lions have been in just about every game. They lost to Montreal by four, to Calgary by two, to Winnipeg by five, to Hamilton by eight and even in that 13-point loss last week they were outgained by just 10 yards. They really have a great shot to get off the mattress this week against a really weak and banged up Eskies offensive line. We’ll split this one up and play the Leos on both the money-line and point spread. Play: B.C. Lions +5½ (Risking 1.6 units to win 1.5) Play: B.C. Lions +206 (Risking 1.5 units).
Doug Upstone
Carolina / Miami Over 33.5
In week one of the preseason, Carolina played a solid game by committing no turnovers, while Miami was just the opposite in turning the ball over three times, but saved themselves by forcing three miscues. On Friday night Play the OVER when the total is 35 or less and a team is off a game where they forced three or more turnovers. (20-5 L5Y)
Brad Diamond Sports
San Francisco over Houston
No doubt Houston continues to fade this season and the lines makers are making the average sports enthusiast pay big time. Still, I will take a shot with RHP Vogelsong on the hill. The Giants have won 9 of 11 overall in the series and 6 of the last 8 in Houston. The Astros enter with a 7-17 mark in game #1 a series, while going 12-40 against a winning baseball team. Take a ticket with the Giants!
EZWINNERS
Baltimore Ravens -7
The Kansas City offense is not looking very good. The Chiefs were shutout at home last week by the Bucs 25-0 and in that game starting quarterback Matt Cassell didn't even attempt a pass. Cassell will play more this week, but I don't expect that to make much of a difference. The KC defense has been shutting down the offensive unit in practice daily and I don't expect the Kansas City offense to have a whole lot of success against the Ravens. Baltimore's offense didn't do much last week against Philadelphia, but I do expect them to look a lot better this week against the Chiefs. Jim Harbaugh is 3-1 against the spread as a pre-season favorite of three points or more with the Ravens and the Chiefs are 0-9 against the spread in the pre-season under coach Todd Haley. Lay the points.
Steve Janus
Seattle Mariners -111
I really like the Mariners to bring home a win against the Rays on Friday. Seattle will have their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound, and anytime you can get someone with his ability at just -111, you have to like your chances of coming away with a win. Hernandez is 11-10 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.191 WHIP on the season, and should have a pretty easy time shutting down a Rays offense that averages just 3.5 runs per game at home. Hernandez is 3-1 with 2.29 ERA against the Rays, while the Mariners have won seven of his eight starts.
Seattle doesn't have much of an offense, averaging just 3.4 runs per game on the season, but they come in having scored four or more in seven of their last eight games. They are going up against Wade Davis, who holds a 4.60 ERA on the season and a 5.40 ERA over his last three starts. Davis is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA in three career starts against the Mariners.
Seattle is 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 36-17 in Hernandez's last 53 starts during game 1 of a series.
Lenny Del Genio
Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
This is a hot Blue Jays team right now. We used them earlier in the week on this page when they beat up the Mariners. They are now averaging nearly seven runs per game over the last week and shut out the A's last night 7-0. Take note that Oakland is just 2-10 this season revenging a shut out loss and 1-9 if they had four or less hits. A's starter Rich Harden has a 2-7 TSR vs. the Blue Jays all-time. Toronto's Brett Cecil has a 3.15 ERA in six road starts. Take Toronto.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY +116 over Boston
Since losing a 4-3 game to KC on July 28, Boston is 10-9 in 19 games. Over that stretch, the Red Sox have averaged just 4.3 RPG on a .739 OPS (both figures are well under their season averages of 5.4 and .805). The Red Sox line-up is a lot less intimidating with David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis on the rack and they’re likely going to have to score a bunch in support of Andrew Miller. Miller has walked 28 and struck out 30 in 43 innings of work. It’s never good to see spiking walks crossing strikeouts. The good news is that he's likely to tick up from here. The bad news is that at these levels, it doesn't matter. Miller throws first pitch strikes just 53% of the time. That’s awful and he’s almost always pitching from behind in the count. When he throws strikes, hitters have made contact 91% of the time and that’s because they can sit on pitches they like. The guy has a WHIP of 1.91 and over the past month that WHIP is even higher at 2.06. Last season for the Marlins, Miller went 1-5 with an 8.54 ERA in 33 IP and he’s not better this season. Jeff Francis is not a consistent pitcher at all. He’s hit and miss with more misses but at least he throws strikes and that counts for something. He’s only walked 28 hitters in 151 frames but his ERA is 4.76. The plate keeps moving on Miller and this choice is all about wagering against a guy that can’t find it. Play: Kansas City +116 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +108 over COLORADO
Hiroki Kuroda's skills are trending in the right direction, headlined by another step up in strikeout rate. He’s been very consistent in every month but May. With a high groundball rate and excellent control, Kuroda is a good investment at this park despite the fact that he’s 0-5 versus the Rocks. In one game against Colorado this season, Kuroda went six full and allowed just one run and he’s a much better option taking back a tag than laying one with Jason Hammel. Hammel has not been roster-worthy this season. He can’t get lefties out and lately he hasn’t been able to get anyone out. He’s 3-8 with a 5.50 ERA at home and over his five starts covering 27.1 frames he’s allowed 23 runs. In his last three starts at Coors he’s allowed 18 runs over 13.2 innings. On June 11, at Coors, the Dodgers came in here and beat Hammel by scoring 11 times. A similar result would not surprise. Play: Los Angeles +108 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +104 over OAKLAND
Rich Harden has only pitched 46 innings this season. Last year he went 5-5 with a 5.58 ERA in 92 IP for Texas. Pre-2010, there were 2 absolutes: 1) He would get injured, but 2) His IP would be effective. Control, command and fly-ball trends, along with 2010 xERA and overall skills, say we’re down to one. Harden’s groundball/fly-ball split this season is an alarming 32%/50% and that does not bode well against a Jays club that keeps going yard game after game after game. Does not matter if Toronto is playing at home or in Seattle or Oakland, guys keep hitting the ball out. Toronto has now won five of six with only loss over that stretch coming on a blown save. They scored 23 runs in a three game set in Seattle and unleashed for another seven last night in the opener. The Jays have won five of Brett Cecil’s last seven starts. Over that span he beat the Rangers twice and has pitched into the seventh inning six times. For Rich Harden, it probably won't be long before he is sidelined again, and his skills when healthy are no longer (not even close) the sure thing they once were. Play: Toronto +104 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle –111 over TAMPA BAY
The Mariners went through an awful stretch that saw them lose 17 in a row and the streak finally ended on July 27 when Felix Hernandez beat the Yanks 9-2. In 18 games since then, the M’s are a respectable 9-9 and now we get King Felix again laying a cheap 11 cents against Wade Davis and the Rays. Hernandez needs no introductions. Full-blown encores seemed impossible after '09 breakout and workload spike. But he just keeps dealing, even in the face of historically poor offensive support. He's one of the AL's best. In his one start against the Rays this year he struck out 11 in typical King Felix fashion. Wade Davis is not showing signs of growth. Expectations for Davis were high heading into 2011. The 25-year old went 7-1 with a 3.48 ERA in the second half of 2010, leading to speculation of a breakout season. With lackluster results and a DL stint with a strained forearm, it hasn’t quite worked out that way. xERA shows his true skill level. Despite the splendid 2010 second half ERA, his xERA was 4.56 over that time frame. While his control has declined slightly over the years, his strikeout rate has plummeted and close to half his batted balls are in the air. Davis has regressed and his days in the Rays rotation may be numbered. That this stiff is near a pick’em against Hernandez is bordering on lunacy. Play: Seattle –111 (Risking 2.22 units to win 2).
David Banks
Rangers / White Sox Under
The series opener between Texas and Chicago is slated to go Friday night at 8:10 ET from U.S. Cellular Field with lefty Matt Harrison toeing the rubber for the Rangers against righty Jake Peavy of the White Sox.
The Rangers all but landed a death blow on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim collective chin earlier this week when they took the first three games of the four-game set at the Big A. The Halos knew they had to at the very least win the series to cut into their lofty deficit in the AL West. That said; the Rangers will head into Thursday night’s series finale looking to sweep back-to-back road series and improve its winning streak on the road to eight games. Manager Ron Washington’s clubs recent hot streak has seen Texas climb all the way up to #7 on the 2011 money list having taken in $657 overall with $357 of it coming in away from the Ballpark in Arlington.
Chicago continues to toy with its fan base and betting backers in 2011. A night after pounding out 22 hits and eight runs in their 8-7 extra inning win over the Cleveland Indians, manager Ozzie Guillen’s squad managed just four hits and one run in a 4-1 loss in Game 2 to fall back to .500 overall. As it is, the White Sox have split their first 122 games of the season (61-61) heading into Thursday night’s series finale with the Tribe. They trail the AL Central leading Detroit Tigers by 3.5-games and sit a whopping 13 games out in the AL Wild Card race.
The recent series between these clubs has been dominated by pitching and defense as the ‘under’ has cashed for total players in eight of these teams L/9 overall meetings; it’s also 6-2 the L/8 times these league rivals battled at The Cell. Texas loves heading into a weekend as it has gone a lucrative 10-1 its L/11 Friday games and is 7-1 in Matt Harrison’s L/8 overall trips to the bump. Chicago counters with an 8-2 tally its L/10 series openers and stands 10-4 the L/14 times Jake Peavy threw at a +.500 opponent.
Rob Vinciletti
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Seattle Mariners
Seattle fits a tight system that plays on road favorites off a home favored loss by 2 or more runs, if they scored 4 or less runs and had 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road win and scored 4 or less runs with 5 or more men left on base. Hard to believe Seattle is the 6th best play on the board for me tonight. However they do have F. Hernandez going and he is 7-1 with a 2.29 era vs the Rays. He has better road numbers than Tampa Starter W. Davis does at home. Davis has been mediocre in starts vs Seattle and has a 4.82 era against them. The Rays have lost 6 of 9 after a day off. Look for Seattle to take game one of the series.
Mike Lineback
St.Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: St.Louis Cardinals
St. Louis start Garcia, 2-0, 15 innings, 2 runs, 12/2 K/W ratio vs. Cubs this season. Cards have won 7 of 9 meetings in 2011. St. Louis have superior lineup & Cubs start Wells is mediocre at best (can be hit hard). In addition, Cubs bullpen having problems lately & key bat Pena is expected to rest today.
Freddy Wills
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: New York Yankees
It has not been an easy period for Phil Hughes to get back to the rotation after injuries and after winning 18 games a year ago, but he’s starting to look like he did a year ago posting a 1.00 WHIP and 2.00 ERA over his last 3 starts. I am still skeptical (reason this is a free pick) and I think he’s still destined for the bullpen come post season. However, his last three starts against the White Sox, Rays, and Mariners have been good ones and those teams are ranked 17th, 19th and 29th vs. RHP in terms of OPS. He gets a break facing the struggling Twins who are ranked 28th which is why this is a play. Twins are 4-13 in their last 17 games and 18-41 in their last 59 vs. the AL Central. More importantly they almost never can find a way to beat the Yankees 19-60 in their last 79 overall 17-35 at home where they have struggled in 2011. Sending Kevin Slowey to the mound for his first start of the year is not going to help.
Slowey is a good home pitcher, but he’s been battling injuries all year long and what I have seen from him in 6 relief outings (8 ER 14.2 IP) has not been good. Facing the Yankees who are hitting right now and one of the better road hitting teams is not what you want in your first start back. Yankees hitters Granderson, Jeter, and Arod have a combined 12-33 with 2 HR off Slowey and overall Yankees have 6 HR in 76 at bats which is how they get a bunch of their runs. I expect the same tonight as the Twins continue to struggle.
Jay Louis
Cardinals vs Cubs
Play: Over 9
The Cubs and Cardinals square off today at Wrigley Field. This game has all the making for another Chi/Stl slugfest. Look for runs to be scored early and often and for this game to go over the posted total. We all know how the wind likes to blow towards the outfield in day games played at Wrigley. Look for that to be the case today.
St. Louis has had little trouble putting up runs on the road this season, as they average over 5 per game. After playing with a day off this season the Cardinals are 8-2 in favor of the over. Today they face Randy Well, a pitcher they are very familiar with. Wells has a lifetime ERA of nearly 5 against St. Louis, so scoring runs off the righty hasn’t been a problem. In his last three starts Wells is 2-0 with an ERA of 5.00 and all three games have gone over the posted total. Look for similar results tonight as the Cardinals love to feast off Chicago’s pitching.
Jaime Garcia will take the ball for St. Louis today. Right away you know this spells trouble as the Cubs have plenty of right handed power bats in the lineup. I look for Chicago to chase Garcia early as they play in the home underdog roll today. In his last three starts Garcia is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.00. He hasn’t been pitching up to par as of late. Most of his struggles have come on the road as he has an ERA of 4.7. The over has hit in 11 of Garcia’s 14 road starts.
These two teams have a knack for going over. In the previous 3-game set between these two at Wrigley, every game went over and 7 of the last 9 overall have been slugfests.
There isn’t much to say. Continue to bet the over trend between these two ball clubs.
Play the OVER 9 between St. Louis and Chicago.
Black Widow
1* on Toronto Blue Jays +104
The Toronto Blue Jays get the call Friday as a road underdog to the Oakland A's. Toronto has won three straight and five of their last six, while Oakland has dropped five of their last seven. Brett Cecil has pitched well on the road this season, going 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in six starts away from home. He should not be an underdog to Rich Harden, who is 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA in eight starts this year. Cecil is 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in three lifetime starts versus Oakland, while Harden is 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in nine lifetime starts versus Toronto. The Blue Jays have been red hot at the plate during this recent run and should stay hot against harden. Toronto has scored a combined 46 runs over their last six contests, averaging 7.7 runs/game. Take the Blue Jays on the Money Line.