DUNKEL INDEX
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
The Bengals look to take advantage of a Philadelphia team that is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 August games. Cincinnati is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3)
Game 405-406: Philadelphia at Cincinnati (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 117.466; Cincinnati 122.468
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5; 35
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 37
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3); Under
MLB
San Francisco at St. Louis
The Cardinals look to build on their 8-3 record in their last 11 games following an off day. St. Louis is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145)
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.127; Cubs (Dempster) 14.590
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-135); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-135); N/A
Game 903-904: NY Mets at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.724; Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.139
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-135); Under
Game 905-906: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Marquis) 15.533; Philadelphia 14.534
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-360); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+270); Over
Game 907-908: Houston at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Happ) 15.834; Florida (Sanchez) 14.767
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Over
Game 909-910: San Diego at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 16.743; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.270
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+120); Over
Game 911-912: San Francisco at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.481; St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.051
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); Over
Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Rogers) 14.482; Arizona (Kennedy) 13.759
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under
Game 915-916: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.364; LA Dodgers (Monasterios) 16.196
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 917-918: Seattle at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.459; NY Yankees (Burnett) 15.314
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Over
Game 919-920: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Wilson) 14.639; Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.284
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+170); Under
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 14.798; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.270
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Under
Game 923-924: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Cecil) 15.239; Boston (Lester) 16.232
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-180); Under
Game 925-926: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 16.133; Minnesota (Duensing) 15.131
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+130); Under
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Jackson) 14.596; Kansas City (O'Sullivan) 14.757
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Under
Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 16.520; Oakland (Mazzaro) 16.185
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under
WNBA
Connecticut at Chicago
The Sky look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is coming off a 90-62 win over Tulsa and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU win. Chicago is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Sky favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3)
Game 651-652: New York at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.239; Washington 117.757
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Indiana at San Antonio (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 115.909; San Antonio 112.296
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 152
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+4 1/2); Over
Game 655-656: Connecticut at Chicago (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.999; Chicago 113.563
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 158
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Under
Game 657-658: Seattle at Phoenix (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 112.491; Phoenix 112.362
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3; 176 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+3); Over
Game 659-660: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 109.497; Los Angeles 111.375
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4); Over
CFL
Hamilton at Toronto
The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games in August. Hamilton is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2 1/2)
Game 243-244: Hamilton at Toronto (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 109.216; Toronto 108.848
Dunkel Line: Even; 57
Vegas Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+2 1/2); Over
Marc Lawrence
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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Brewers host the Padres at Miller Park in the opener of a three-game series tonight when they send ace right-hander Yovanni Gallardo to the mound knowing they've come up winners in five of his last seven home starts. Gallardo is also 5-1 at home in his major league career team starts during the month of August. With San Diego just 2-4 in Wade LeBlanc's last six road outings. look for the Brew Crew to go one leg up on the Padres here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.
John Ryan
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Mariners at Yankees
Prediction: Over
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5* graded play OVER Seattle/NY Yankees set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that more than eight runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 39-10 for 80% winners since 1997. Play over with all teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 and is a terrible offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs per game facing a decent AL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=4.20 to 4.70 and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. Yankees are a solid 23-13 OVER (+9.2 Units) in home games against right-handed starters this season.
Tony Karpinski
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Eagles vs. Bengals
Play: Over 37
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This is the Bengals 3rd game and this is normally when the starters see 3 quarters of action. The Bengals offense has been tough and their defense just as good, but they just played Sunday and had a short week to prepare.
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However on the other hand, the Eagles put up over 500 yards of offense last Friday and had a full week to prepare for this game. The Eagles 1st team is expected to play the 1st half followed by Michael Vick as QB seeing time with the starters in the 3rd quarter. Vick played well last week and had a fumble in the redzone and a pick returned deep, so he was moving the ball just a few mistakes. Its a very tough game to figure a side play and I am just going to give an opinion free selection on the OVER as I expect 40 or more points scored.
Cajun Sports
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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +3
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The Cincinnati Bengals play host to the boys from the City of Brotherly love on Friday night. The Bengals will be playing their third preseason game of the season while Philadelphia is playing only their second. Cincinnati is 4-8 ATS since 1993 when installed as a home favorite of three or fewer points and 0-2 ATS in this situation the last three years. Philadelphia is 9-1-1 against the spread when playing Game 2 of the NFL Preseason the last eleven seasons. A check of the database reveals a league-wide system that tells us to play against home teams off a straight up win as a home favorite of two or more points; these teams have posted a record of 37-12 ATS. Take the points with the Eagles as they get the straight up win over the Bengals tonight.
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PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Philadelphia Eagles 26 Cincinnati Bengals 20
Rocketman
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LAA Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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LA Angels are 60-61 this year while Minnesota comes in with a 70-50 overall record and leading the AL Central division. LA Angels are only 5-15 this year when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season. Minnesota is 51-20 last 3 years and 20-3 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. LA Angels have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Minnesota has won 9 of their last 10 games overall. Minnesota bullpen has a 3.14 ERA overall this year and a 3.19 ERA at home this season. Brian Duensing is 6-1 with a 2.00 ERA overall this year, 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA in all starts, 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA at home and 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota tonight!
Rob Vinciletti
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Padres vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8
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This game fits a nice totals system that has gone under 13 of 16 times. What we want to do is play the under when we have a home team with a total of 8 or less, off a road win, if they are taking on an opponent off a road favored win and scored 5 or more runs. These games have averaged just a shade over 6 runs per game over the years. The Pitching matchup suggests an over as well. The Brewers have Y. Gallardo on the mound tonight and he has compiled a fine 2.97 era this year. SD counters with W. Leblanc tonight. Leblanc pitched real well in his only start here going 6+ innings without allowing a run. Leblanc is one of the more underrated starters in the league as well. The Padres also have a solid 3.13 road bullpen era. Look for this one to go under the total tonight.
BEN BURNS
Houston Astros @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
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The Marlins come in on a roll. Yesterday's victory was their third straight. That brought them to 60-60 for the season. With Sanchez on the mound and the Astros coming to town, the Marlins have a great shot at climbing above the .500 mark here.
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In 11 home starts, Sanchez has a stellar 2.97 ERA for the Marlins. In two road starts for the Astros, Happ has a dreadful 10.50 ERA and 2.833 WHIP. Note that Happ is supported by a Houston bullpen which has a terrible 5.38 ERA and 1.673 WHIP on the road.
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The Marlins are 6-1 the last seven times that they hosted the Astros. Meanwhile, Sanchez is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in three career starts vs. Houston. That includes a 5-1 victory this season.
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With yesterday's victory, the Marlins are now 7-1 the last eight times that they faced a southpaw starter, including a perfect 5-0 their last five. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 23-12 their last 35 vs. left-handed starters and an excellent 75-55 (+25.5) their last 130. Consider FLORIDA
Jim Feist
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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 8
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The Red Sox offense keeps chugging along, getting Dustin Pedroia back this week. Fenway is a hitter's park and the top home run team in baseball comes to town in the Blue Jays. Boston has teed off Toronto starter Brett Cecil, who is 0-3 with a 7.80 ERA against Boston. That's 28 base runners in 15 innings against them! Toronto has been a good team over the total the last 10 days as their young pitching has been coming back to earth, wearing down a bit over the long season. This is a low total for an AL game in a place like Fenway, Play the Blue Jays/Red Sox over the total.
Kyle Hunter
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Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Over 9½
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If you haven't followed the Arizona Diamondbacks, they have one of the worst bullpens EVER in MLB history. In fact, they have a chance to break the record for worst ERA ever, at well over 6. Ian Kennedy started the season strong for Arizona, but he has faltered of late. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 starts. Esmil Rogers has a 6.86 ERA on the road this year. Arizona isn't known for their pitching, but they do have a very solid lineup that can make you pay if you make mistakes. I think the oddsmakers are giving us a nice value play on the over here. Take over 9.5 in this one!
EZWINNERS
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Chicago White Sox -140
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Chicago made the trade for Edwin Jackson in hopes of moving him on to Washington to acquire the Nats slugger Adam Dunn. Washington pulled out of that deal and it appears to be working out very well for Chicago. The White Sox new starting pitcher Edwin Jackson has pitched very well for his new team. Control was always an issue for Jackson when he was in Arizona and the White Sox coaching staff thinks they have corrected his problem. It appears that they have as Jackson has allowed three earned runs in twenty innings of work for a 1.35 ERA in three starts for his new team. Jackson has also struck out twenty four batters while walking just five and I expect another solid outing from him in this start against the Royals. The struggling Sean O'Sullivan gets the start for Kansas City. In his last three starts O'Sullivan has been hit hard and is 0-3 with an ERA of 6.88. I like Chicago's chances of knocking O'Sullivan around in this game. The Royals are only 6-14 in their last twenty games against a team with a winning record. Play on Chicago.
Gill Alexander
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NYY (-140) vs SEA
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Felix is absolutely phenomenal and I will write nothing here that will take away from that. Hernandez hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 14.2IP over 2 starts. He has a 1.14WHIP, a 3.08FIP and a 3.35xFIP, all great numbers. He even has 2CG v NYY in 2010, allowing just 1ER (0.50ERA). However, the Yanks did manage 10 hits in the more recent ballgame v Felix and are a lineup that when offered at -140, even against the King, are always worth consideration. Despite mediocre metrics (4.66FIP, 4.68xFIP) Burnett is coming off 2 consecutive quality starts in which he posted a 2.40ERA. And a further delving into the numbers over the last 5 seasons shows that a host of Yankees hitters actually do quite well v Hernandez over the long haul, including Cano (.385), Granderson (.360), Jeter (.333), and Teixera (.306). That's good enough for me. This price is too nice not to take the Yankees.
CIN -3 vs PHI
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Another lazy Preseason NFL line that we need to exploit. We've been very selective in taking our NFL shots this August, but tonight represents an opportunity too good to pass up.
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The Eagles showed that their achilles' heel is in their secondary. Once their reserves got on the field last week, Luke McCown of the Jaguars did his Daryle Lamonica imitation and had one of the great preseason performances of all-time, destroying them w deep throws. I believe the Bengals will have some of that same success against Philly through the air. Look for Matt Jones and Jordan Shipley to do big things in this one.
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The real inside scoop? The Eagles have run roughly 200 more plays, per Andy Reid's estimate, this season in training camp than at this point last year. It has been perhaps his most grueling training camp to date. While that will serve Philadelphia well down the road, they're collectively gassed for this game. By the way, they're also more banged up for this game, as a result, as well.
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Love the Bengals to exploit the short term fatigue factor and get us the cover.
James Patrick Sports
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Rays vs. A's
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In Friday Major League Baseball action fromm the Bay Area Big Game James Patrick complimentary selection is Tampa Bay Rays as the red hot Rays are an amazing (59-25) in game #2 of series action.
Triple Threat Sports
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Philadelphia vs Cincy
Pick: Over
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Both defenses have had their issues this preseason, and in this game both sets of offensive starters are expected to play the entire first half. Also, both Vick and O'Sullivan (both will play the 3Q) have been starters in this league and will be taking on backups. The Over is the way to go here.
Tom Freese
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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Chicago White Sox
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White Sox starter Edwin Jackson has allowed 4 runs total in his 3 starts with the club. Chicago is 26-9 their last 35 games as favorites and they are 15-4 in game one of series. The Pale Hose are 20-7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game. Chicago is 20-8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their last game. Kansas City starter Sean O'Sullivan has allowed 14 runs in his last 16 innings of work. O'Sulivan is 1-4 in his 5 starts this year. The Royals are 6-18 their last 24 games as an underdog and they are 6-14 their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 1-4 their last 5 games with the White Sox.