Craig Trapp
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Two teams headed in opposite directions. MIN is on a roll winning 8 of last 10 games. Also have a better pitcher on the mound in Deunsing. You would think that the Angels and their expensive trade Haren would be favored tonight. The reason why he is not favored is he is not the same pitcher he was in years past. In fact Haren has not won a road start in nearly three months and is only 1-3 with a 3.35 ERA since coming over in trade. Deunsing for MIN is a much better 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA in five starts since being moved to the starting rotation. If that's not enough to convince you then look at the batting numbers which give MIN an even bigger advantage. Another win for MIN as they pull away easily today!
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -133
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I'll get behind the best road club in baseball with the red hot Hellickson set to hurl. Hellickson is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.35 and a WHIP of 0.600 through his first 3 major league starts. He has given up just 3 hits in each of his starts. With this expected to be his last start before heading to the pen (same plan of action they had with David Price a couple seasons ago), Hellickson won't leave anything on the mound. Mazzaro takes the hill for the A's, and they have lost each of his last 4 starts. Mazzaro has been a victim of poor run support, and I expect offense to be a problem against Hellickson. Tampa Bay is 15-4 in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. We'll take Tampa here.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -150
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Look for the Cards to bring their 4-game losing streak to an end tonight. Getting an off day to regroup should bode well for the Cards as they are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a day off. Also, the Cards typically show up in their series opener, as evidenced by their 48-19 run in Game 1's of a series. Plus, St. Louis is a solid home club, and it 13-3 in its last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Giants are coming in off a win, but they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. They are also 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. With this in mind, I like Westbrook's chances of shutting down the Giants. He is carrying an ERA of 3.32 and a WHIP of 0.947 over his last 3 starts. Those numbers are pretty good, especially when you consider that Bumgarner is carrying an ERA of 4.86 and a WHIP of 1.860 in his last 3 trips to the circle. Take the Cards tonight.
Tom Stryker
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox
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Off last night's offensive explosion in the Twin Cities, I'm going ride Chicago's hot bats on Friday night at Kansas City.
On the bump for the Pale Hose will be right-hander Edwin Jackson. There's nothing wrong with the way this kid has pitched lately. Facing Detroit (twice) and Baltimore in his last three starts, Jackson has been touched for only three earned runs and 20 hits in 20.0 innings. That's good enough for a 1-0 record and a powerful 1.35 ERA!
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Getting the call for the Royals will be righty Sean O'Sullivan and that will be a problem for the home team. Unlike Chicago's Jackson, O'Sullivan was blasted in his last three performances by the Yankees, Angels and A's. With 17.0 innings in the bank, Sean got smashed for 13 earned runs and 24 hits. That's bad enough for a woeful 0-3 mark and a nasty 6.88 ERA! To make matters worse, with O'Sullivan on the hill, Kansas City has dropped seven of its last eight in the first game of a series.
There are a bundle of team trends that support this investment too. The Royals have slipped in 18 of their last 24 as an underdog and 14 of their last 20 battling a greater than .500 foe. On the flip side, the White Sox have posted wins in 26 of their last 35 as chalk and 15 of their last 19 in a series lid-lifter.
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The ChiSox made a statement last night when they pounded the first-place Twins. Manager Ozzie Guillen won't let his troops quit and they will fight to the end. Take Chicago with listed pitcher Jackson.
JR O'Donnell
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FLA (-153) vs HOU
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The home town Fla Marlins behind Anibal Sanchez who checks in @ 9-8 and 3.31 ERA will blast the Stros J Happ tonight.The Marlins @ 60-60 will be all over the former Phillie @ home tonight. The 53-67 Astros are cooling off and JR'S camp is not high on former Phillie J. Happ after the Oswalt trade. Looking at the line , the Odds makers have respect for the Marlins here and there young talent. The Marlins are a super 6-1 at home vs the Stros and the JR POWER RATINGS have the Marlins @ - 165 tonight.Let's slam the Marlins who are is a nice 17-6 ats spot with Sanchez as a listed home favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
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ARIZONA –1½ +1.64 over Colorado
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The D-Backs really cooled off after a good run but at least they cooled off against a division leader. Prior to getting swept by the Reds, the Snakes were very warm with eight wins in 12 games and they could certainly get back on track against this struggling visitor. The Rocks are laboring badly at the dish. In six of it’s last nine games they had a BA of .129, .133, .176, .182, .200 and .071. They were shut out in four of those six games. In its just completed three-game set in L.A., the Rocks scored three times and they’ll play tonight without its best hitter, Carlos Gonzalez. Esmil Rogers is fooling nobody. This guy has a light frame (150 lbs) and he throws way too many strikes. On 0-2 counts he’ll fire one right down the middle. He’s appeared in just 15 games this season with four of those as a starter. In his four starts, two in early May and his last two appearances, Rogers has allowed 29 hits and 18 ER in 20 IP. On the road the league is hitting .341 off him and in his last two starts against Pittsburgh and Milwaukee his BAA was .340. Meanwhile, Ian Kennedy is 26 and the “elite prospect” talks he generated are coming back. An aneurysm in his throwing shoulder wiped out nearly the entire season last year and he’s bounced back strong this year. Kennedy has a BAA of just .236 and at Chase Field it’s even better at .230. He works efficiently and in fact, has thrown six and seven full innings in his last two starts and has thrown just 95 and 89 pitches respectively. This guy has nothing but upside and has a big time edge over Rogers. Play: Arizona –1½ +1.64 (Risking 2 units).
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FLORIDA –1½ +1.47 over Houston
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The Astros bats have really cooled off and in its four-game set with the Mets they managed to score just 10 runs and that includes five innings of extra play. It was an intense and very close four-game series and now they’ll travel to play in a ¾ empty stadium. They’ll also face a tough pitcher in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has a 2.97 ERA at home. He’s faced Cincinnati, Philly and San Fran in three of his last four starts and will take a big step down in class when facing the Astros. He threw a complete game one-hitter at San Fran and has struck out seven or more batters in five straight starts. In his last start at Great American Ballpark in Cinci, he went six full and allowed just five hits and two earned runs. Over his last nine starts he’s allowed just two bombs and he catches the Astros at the perfect time. There’s also a major FLUKE ALERT on J.A. Happ. Happ has been sidelined for most of this year with forearm soreness. His velocity didn't return during his rehab assignment, but he was brought back to PHI anyway. After his trade to HOU, it's becoming evident that Happ carries with him more risk than reward over the season's final six weeks. While his 3.38 ERA conjures up images of the sub-3.00 ERA he posted last year, it's a complete fluke. He has an 81% strand rate and a 4% HR/F. He also is an extreme flyball pitcher. If he continues to have control problems (27 walks and 27 K’s), they will become magnified once his HR/F normalizes, as those base runners will turn into earned runs quickly. Steer clear of Happ. Play: Florida –1½ +1.47 (Risking 2 units).
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BOSTON –1½ +1.17 over Toronto
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The Jays steam may have run out after two tough losses in Oakland and this is about its worst matchup possible, that being facing a very tough southpaw and a team they can’t beat. The Red Sox lead the AL in OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.806) and they’ve hit Toronto hard this season, outscoring the Blue Jays, 76-49, in compiling nine wins in 12 games. Brett Cecil is a lefty and last season he lost effectiveness as the season wore on. A similar result could be in the cards this year. He was absolutely torched in his last game vs the Angels and the reports are his fastball topped off at just 85 MPH. His groundball rate is way down in his last five starts and that’s another sign of fatigue. John Lester needs no introduction. He’s as good as they come and the Jays are just 10-17 vs southpaws on the year. Lester had an electric July with a 54% groundball rate to go along with outstanding command. He’s dominated this Jays lineup many times and all signs point to another elite start and finish for Lester. Red Sox going away. Play: Boston –1½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
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Hamilton +1.30 over TORONTO
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Give the Argos all the credit in the world for a strong 5-2 start after they were written off for dead before the season even started. The stars have aligned up just right for these Argos and it was capped off by a big win last week over the Als. Football is a game of emotion and after a big win last week and a bye up next this could be a very vulnerable spot for the host. The Als still had a big week through the air against the Argos and that defensive flaw has been exploited more often than not. Enter Kevin Glenn and a strong Ticat passing game, one that ranks only second to Montreal as the Tabbies are averaging nearly 324 yards per game through the air. The TiCats are also strong defensively and have some of the best defensive players in the league. Hamilton has not played up to its potential yet but a game against the Argos when things are coming together could be the launching pad to trigger a run. The Argos have been winning but they’ve been winning by the slimmest of margins with several fourth quarter comebacks. Those intensified games takes its toll and again, they were completely stoked up for last week’s tilt vs Montreal. The situation is a favorable one for the Tiger-Cats and we fully expect them to respond in a big way. ‘Cats outright. Play: Hamilton +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Doug Upstone
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
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Almost miraculously it seems Seattle has won four series in a row. That task might be far more challenging this weekend in the Bronx. Despite their improved play, the Mariners are still the worst hitting team in baseball with .236 team batting average, scoring 3.3 runs per contest. Seattle sends Felix Hernandez (8-10, 2.71) up the hill and he should have a much better record, but is being stifled by lack of run support.
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Road underdogs like Seattle with a money line of +125 to +175, who can’t hit, sporting a .260 or less batting average, against an AL team with a solid bullpen ERA 3.75 or lower, with a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start, are disastrous 14-52 the past five years.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -155
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The Cardinals are an impressive 76-37 in their last 113 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. They are also 13-3 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a winning record and 48-19 in their last 67 during game 1 of a series. After 4 straight defeats, expect St. Louis to really go after tonight's contest.
Info Plays
3* on Oakland A's +135
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Reasons the A's win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TAMPA BAY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL), starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings. This is a 40-18 ML System hitting 69% over the last 5 seasons. Bet the A's at home.
Hollywood Sports
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Reds at Dodgers
Prediction: Over
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Homer Bailey goes for Cincy with his 2-2 mark along with a meager 4.92 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Bailey has struggled throughout his career against the Dodgers given his 6.19 ERA, 1.81 WHIP and .333 opponent's batting average in 16 innings of work. He faces off against Carlos Monasterios who is making a spot-start tonight. Overall, Monasterios is 3-3 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.34 WHIP -- but most of that work is in relief. In his last three starts, Monasterios has a 6.43 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. In his last five starts, the game went Over the Total four times. And in the last twelve meetings between these two clubs, the Over is 8-3-1.
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On a deeper level, both of these pitchers share a troubling sabermetric statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Bailey and Monasterios have high ISO's of .168 and .171 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future. Take the Over here while listing both pitchers.
LARRY NESS
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Houston Astros @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
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The 53-67 Astros have known for quite awhile that playing after October 3 was highly unlikely in 2010. The 60-60 Marlins, now 10 1/2 games behind the Braves (and eight game back of the wild-card leading Phils), should have come to the same conclusion as well by now. The teams open a four-game series tonight in Miami with JA Happ (former Phillie) facing Anibal Sanchez. Happ was part of the Oswalt deal and has done reasonable job for Houston, going 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four starts in an Astros uniform (team is 2-2). However, he's pitching for a team which is just 21-34 on the road, allowing an average of 5.45 RPG. Sanchez is not quite back to his form as a rookie (10-3 with a 2.83 in 2006, including a no-hitter) but after three mediocre and injury-filled seasons, 2010 has been solid (9-9 with a 3.31 ERA in 23 starts / team is 11-12). He owns a 2.97 ERA at home and is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in three career starts against Houston (team is 2-1).The Marlins are 6-1 at home vs the Astros since 2008 and that record should improve to 7-1 after tonight.
DAVID MALINSKY
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Los Angeles Angels @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins
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We do not believe that the markets are correct in this one, and now that the low 140’s are coming into play, so are we.
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As we noted in bucking the Angels twice in Fenway Park earlier this week, their 60-61 record really does tell the tale. They are 14th in the Majors in runs; 15th and 19th on our best sets of defensive ratings; and the bullpen ERA is 4.19. They are the epitome of an average baseball team, and at 8-11/4.37, Danny Haren has been basically an average pitcher this season. Keep in mind that this is counting the best part of Haren’s annual cycle – from 2007-2009 it was a 27-13/2.34 before the All Star break, compared to an 18-14/4.33 the rest of the way, and after five straight seasons of 216 innings or more, and at 175 already, we may be seeing signs of him wearing down. Over his last three starts it has been a respectable 3.98 ERA, but note the ratio of 24 hits vs. only 10 K’s in that span, and in each of his last two outings he had twice as many fly ball outs as ground outs. Let’s color him as particularly vulnerable here.
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Meanwhile Brian Duensing is getting no love from the markets despite a sharp 6-1/2.00 full-season tally, including 3-0/2.43 in his five starts, and note how real those numbers are – as a starter he has only seven W’s over 33.1 innings, with only two HR’s allowed and 52 ground ball outs vs. just 27 in the air. He can continue that form against a lineup that lacks experience against him (only Alberto Callaspo has more than two career at-bats), and the silver lining for Ron Gardenhire from last night’s blowout loss to the White Sox is a bullpen that comes in rested and ready for the latter stages. With a 38-21 home mark this season, the Twins deserve a much higher price point for this matchup.
Roz Juarbe
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Angels at Twins
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A long road trip for the Angels continues, from the West Coast, to Boston and now Minnesota. Their pitching has taken a beating on this trip and Minnesota is now easy place to pitch in. Starter Dan Haren has been erratic all season long no matter which team he has been with and the Twins are terrific at home. Play the Twins.
Jack Jones
Rockies/Diamondbacks Over 9½
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I like the chances of double-digit runs being scored tonight in hitter-friendly Arizona. The OVER is 74-45-3 in Arizona's 122 games this season, including 9-3 in their last 12 games overall. Esmil Rodgers has not been effective this season for Colorado, going 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.574 WHIP. He has been asked to make four starts this year, going 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA and 1.819 WHIP. Ian Kennedy is pitching decent this year with a 7-9 record and 4.38 ERA. But Kennedy has given up 9 runs in 11 innings over 2 starts vs. Colorado this season.
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These are two very good offensive teams, with Arizona scoring 4.9 RPG at home and Colorado putting up 4.9 RPG against right-handed starters. The OVER is 6-1-1 in Rockies last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The OVER is 5-0-1 in Kennedy's last 6 starts overall. The OVER is 19-7 in Diamondbacks last 26 games following a loss. Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.
Black Widow
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1* on Chicago White Sox -152
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Look for the White Sox to get going after an 11-0 win over Minnesota last night. They see this series against Kansas City as a great chance to get right back in the AL Central race. They'll be up against Sean O'Sullivan for Game 1, who is 1-4 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.383 WHIP this year. Edwin Jackson clearly has the edge, and he's pitched great in his time with the White Sox. Jackson has been revived since being traded from Arizona, going 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in three starts with Chicago. The White Sox are 15-6 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are 15-4 in their last 19 during game 1 of a series. Chicago is 26-9 in their last 35 games as a favorite. The Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 during Game 1 of a series. Take the White Sox on the Money Line.