Teddy Covers
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Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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At the All Star Break, the Dodgers were sitting ten games above .500, only two games back in the ultra-competitive NL West race. But Joe Torre’s slumping squad is just 13-21 since the break, and they’ve fallen twelve games out of the division lead. They’ve lost nine times in their last 18 tries as a favorite unable to win their ‘winnable’ games. This team has fallen, and they can’t get up!
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Yet the Dodgers are favored once again this evening, facing a superior, hotter team, with better chemistry and the better starting pitcher. LA still isn’t hitting, held to three runs or less in six of their last seven games; a punchless lineup taking bad at bats repeatedly. Rookie starter Carlos Monasterios is an emergency fill-in at best – he’s been bounced from the rotation twice already this year, and has only recorded three outs past the fifth inning in his eight previous starts. It’s surely worth noting that Monasterios has only pitched 5.1 innings of work in three appearances out of the bullpen this month, not exactly a pitcher in excellent current rhythm.
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The Reds offense is on fire, pounding out 26 runs in their just concluded three game sweep at Arizona. They’ve got the second best road record in the NL, a team worth supporting in hostile environments on the highway. And starter Homer Bailey, a former ‘can’t miss’ prospect, is finally starting to live up to billing; coming off a six inning, three hit shutout effort in a win over the Marlins in his first game back from a stint on the DL. 2* Take Cincinnati.
Dan Bebe
BAL (+185) vs TEX
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This line is so inflated, it's ridiculous.
Again, no time for writeups today (Friday's are CRAZY-busy), but C.J. Wilson doesn't like facing Baltimore, so for him to be a -200 favorite against a team that hits him hard is just absurd.
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Arrieta will need to put together another decent start, but the O's are confident, the Rangers are struggling, and this line has been driven up by people assuming Texas won't lose 2 straight to a bad team.
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Play the Orioles, SMALL SMALL SMALL. But play them. Seriously.
FLA (-170) vs HOU
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This game was on the radar for a Top Play, but after the line move, I just can't do that. We'll go SMALL with this Freebie on a team that's hitting well, strong against lefties, and has a starter going (A. Sanchez) that has a career mark against Houston of 2-0 with an ERA under 1 run.
Dwayne Bryant
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks
'Zona just got swept at home by the Reds, but Colorado hasn't been setting the world on fire either. Esmil Rogers has been very hittable, especially on the road and in nighttime starts. Rogers owns a 6.86 ERA & 1.98 WHIP in three road starts. He also owns a 6.87 ERA & 1.96 WHIP in two starts under the lights. Not a huge sample size, but he could very well get lit up again by a D'backs team that bats .271 at home against righties, scoring 5.2 runs per game.
Ian Kennedy hasn't been great this year, but he hasn't been awful either. One thing about Kennedy is that he does pitch pretty well at home, as is evident by his 3.86 ERA & 1.15 WHIP in his 11 home starts. I'm keeping this play small because: A) I do not trust the 'Zona bullpen; and B) Colorado has seen Kennedy twice this season, while 'Zona will be facing Rogers for the first time. But seeing Rogers for the first time didn't stop teams like Milwaukee and Pittsburgh from hitting him, so I don't see it stopping 'Zona in the desert either. D'backs are worth a SMALL play tonight, IMO.