Sleepyj
NY Jets Pk
The New York Giants have been a disaster so far this Preseason as far as the starters are concerned. Eli Manning has a total of one completion this entire preseason. The Giants have played 3 game so far this preseason and failed to impress me one bit. The 2nd string and 3rd string has looked much better than the first squad all around. I really think this team has a lot of holes and the depth on this team on both sides of the ball is a major issue. I'm very low on this Giants team as i think they can finish in the bottom of the league. I honestly can see this team being the laughing stock of the NFL in a few short weeks of the regualar season. The Giants are 3-0 but the starters have contributed very little. The Giants also have some WR issues as well Odell Beckham is injured and it's a little unsure how the Giants plan to use the passing game as it relates to the slot. This may again cause some timing issues as Manning has looked rather shell shocked. On the other hand with the Jets, if Rex Ryan wants to win some games it might just have to be these games. I'm not sold on this Jets team but they look to have some pieces they can work with. Chris Johnson had a nice preseason so far. I like the fact that both Geno Smith and Mike Vick are playing for a starting job when one slips up at any moment. So we should see both players creating plays tonight against a Giants defense that looks rather lost this preseason. The Jets strength is the defense and i think in this game, a in state rivalry game they will give Eli all he can handle and more. The Jets receiving was rather down the first 2 preseason games, but i expect them to have a breakout kinda game tonight. I think this one will be close but i think Rex will get the Jets up for this one.
Jimmy Boyd
Arizona Diamondbacks -110
The Diamondbacks are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Padres tonight. Arizona is going to be excited to return home after a lengthy 10-game road trip that ended with a 6-game losing streak. The Padres on the other hand could be in for a letdown after a big series at Los Angeles.
San Diego is just 25-40 on the road this season and come in with zero confidence at the plate after managing just 3 hits last night against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. That's good news for Arizona starter Josh Collmenter, who has an impressive 3.18 ERA and 0.991 WHIP over 12 home starts. The Padres will counter with Odrisamer Despaigne, who is just 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.463 WHIP over 5 road starts.
San Diego is just 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series, 5-11 in their last 16 road games against a team with a losing record and 1-4 in Despaigne's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less. Arizona is 4-0 in their last 4 home games as a favorite of -110 to -150, 6-1 in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing record and 5-1 in Collmenter's last 6 home starts as a favorite.
Adding to that is a solid system backing the Arizona. Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less are 63-34 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Diamondbacks.
Steve Janus
Kansas City Royals -145
This is a great spot to back the Royals, as they take their major league leading .274 road batting average to Texas to face off against Colby Lewis and the Rangers. Texas has the worst home record of any team at 23-38 and Lewis is an awful 2-7 with a 7.29 ERA over 12 home starts, which is the worst ERA of any pitcher in their home park. On the flip side of this, the Royals will send out youngster Yordano Ventura, who has a 2.81 ERA over his last 4 starts and will have an advantage with this being the first time facing the Rangers.
Key Trends - Kansas City is 16-4 in their last 20 road games in the 2nd half against teams who are outscored by 0.5 runs or more per game and the Rangers are just 4-21 in their last 25 against a team with a winning pct between 54% to 62%.
System - Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL, starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 53-31 (63%) against the money line since 1997.
Chip Chirimbes
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs -105
The Orioles have won four straight and visit Chicago for this inter-league contest as they start 23-year-old Kevin Gausman (7-4, 3.70 ERA) who has never faced the Cubs. Chicago will start their most effective starter in Jake Arrieta (6-4, 2.61) who once registered 10 wins with Baltimore.
John Fisher
Royals at Rangers
Play: Royals
The Royals have been playing the best baseball in August. They are hitting .280 since August and have won 22 out of 28 games! Ventura is 9-9 but he's better than what his .500 record indicates. He has a 3.6 ERA with a WHIP of 1.3 on the Road compared to Lewis who struggles in his Home park with a 7.2 ERA and a 1.7 WHIP. LETS take the Royals. The Royals are 9-4 after a day off. Rangers are 3-10 after a day off.
Dominic Brando
Astros / Indians Over 8.5
Our top MLB Total on the Friday card comes from Cleveland (our model sets this number going over 10). Peacock and Carrasco will yield plenty of opportunities for both teams (combined ERA over 9.5 with a total record of 5-10 on the season). Houston enters off an afternoon road shutout at Yankee Stadium, but their bats will come back alive tonight against a SP that has very little business being on a MLB roster (Astros 32 runs in previous five games before yesterday’s gem by Brandon McCarthy). Similar situation for the Tribe, who enter tonight off a silent afternoon road loss (1 run yesterday) after having scored 12 runs in the previous two games. BATS AWAKEN ON BOTH SIDES TONIGHT as we take advantage of a weak 8.5 number and put our investment on the over!
LA Dodgers -130
WE LOVE the Dodgers in this spot tonight, entering with momentum after the huge Josh Turner HR that saved the night B8 last night vs SD. Expect LA to respond tonight as the bright lights of NYC come to visit. The Mets are just 3-6 in their last nine games and typically struggle on the West Coast including 0-4 L4 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers are 13-3 against left-handed pitchers and catch Jonathon Niese at an opportune time tonight (entering 2-5 in his last seven starts as a road underdog and just 1-7 on the road against .500 or better teams). The Dodgers have won six of seven games against the Mets and it continues tonight. VALUE at -130, jump on the better team in a perfect spot!
Padres +105
We isolate the Padres as our top underdog on the Friday MLB Card! We catch a very live dog coming into the desert tonight, swinging their best bats of the season (and the best offense in the National League since the ASB. SD is the top hitting team in the NL and they are third in MLB in batting average (.267) during that time. Before getting their hearts broken last night vs Clayton Kershaw, the Pads had 68 hits and 35 runs in their previous 7 games! On the flip side, offense has disappeared for the DBacks, who have hit only .239 since the ASB (scoring ONLY 14 RUNS/45 HITS OVER THEIR LAST 7 GAMES). Paul Goldschmidt is out for the year, and the offense has responded in miserable fashion - we expect that to continue tonight! DBacks SP Josh Collimenter enters tonight with a 6.46 ERA in his last 3 starts. San Diego is 8-3 vs sub .500 teams since the ASB and enters off a very feisty series at Dodger Stadium. We move with complete confidence on San Diego as our top Friday Dog!
Montreal +8
Do not let the record differential in tonight’s game deceive you. Winnipeg escaped with a 34-33 victory at Montreal early this season, but the Blue Bombers were out gained by 105 yards. Winnipeg is also only 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Our model sets this number in the 3.5-4 range, and we will JUMP on what we judge to be a clear overlay/value spot with a live dog in Montreal. Be sure to play at +8 on the half point buy if necessary. We expect a continued run of success with our CFL plays. Take the points and expect the Alouettes to be more than ready for this one tonight!
Sam Martin
San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
Good pitching matchup tonight with Tim Hudson taking on Doug Fister, and we expect Fister and the Nats to get the better of the visiting Giants tonight. Not only has Fister been simply awesome here at home, but the Nationals are on a momentum and confidence driven winning streak that has them feeling invincible at the moment with everything falling their way over the course of their current ten-game winning streak.
Seven of those ten wins have come by a single run, but we think they might take this one by a bit more with Fister going. The Nationals starter has won seven of his eight team starts here at home on the season having a ridiculous 1.76 ERA in the process. And he's only getting stronger as the season goes on, going at least seven innings while allowing exactly zero earned runs in each of his last three starts. Nothing against Hudson, but he can't stack up to those numbers statistically and we look for Washington's magic run to continue at least one more game!
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates +133
The Pittsburgh Pirates (65-62) are just 2.5 games back of the Giants for the final wild card spot in the National League. They had lost seven in a row before finally putting an end to that streak with a 3-2 victory over the Braves on Wednesday. I look for them to now starting a winning streak today by taking down the Milwaukee Brewers at an excellent price.
Jeff Locke is quietly having a solid season for the Pirates on the mound. The left-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.222 WHIP over 14 starts this season. He has dominated the Brewers in two of his last three starts against them. He gave up one earned run over seven innings on June 8th in his only start against them this year. He is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee overall.
Yovani Gallardo is a guy that consistently gets too much respect from oddsmakers. After all, the Brewers have gone just 12-13 in his 25 starts this season. He has posted solid numbers with a 3.32 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in those starts, but he has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in 13 starts inside Miller Park.
The Pirates are 4-1 in Locke's last five starts as an underdog. Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Locke's last 11 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. The Brewers are 0-5 in Gallardo's last five home starts. Milwaukee is 3-7 in Gallardo's last 10 starts overall.
Jack Jones
Pittsburgh Pirates +133
The Pittsburgh Pirates (65-62) are just 2.5 games back of the Giants for the final wild card spot in the National League. They had lost seven in a row before finally putting an end to that streak with a 3-2 victory over the Braves on Wednesday. I look for them to now starting a winning streak today by taking down the Milwaukee Brewers at an excellent price.
Jeff Locke is quietly having a solid season for the Pirates on the mound. The left-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.222 WHIP over 14 starts this season. He has dominated the Brewers in two of his last three starts against them. He gave up one earned run over seven innings on June 8th in his only start against them this year. He is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee overall.
Yovani Gallardo is a guy that consistently gets too much respect from oddsmakers. After all, the Brewers have gone just 12-13 in his 25 starts this season. He has posted solid numbers with a 3.32 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in those starts, but he has been at his worst at home, going 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.326 WHIP in 13 starts inside Miller Park.
The Pirates are 4-1 in Locke's last five starts as an underdog. Pittsburgh is 8-3 in Locke's last 11 starts with a total set of 7.0-8.5. The Brewers are 0-5 in Gallardo's last five home starts. Milwaukee is 3-7 in Gallardo's last 10 starts overall.
Mike Lundin
Cardinals vs. Phillies
Play: Over 7½
The Cardinals and the Phillies are tied at 2-2 in the season series coming into the opener of a three game set at Citizens Bank Park tonight. I think we'll see a game with plenty of runs as two struggling hurlers will take the hill.
The Cardinal's Shelby Miller (8-9, 4.25 ERA) has been roughed up pretty bad in his last two outings, surrendering nine runs on 12 hits over 11 innings. He has tossed 6 2/3 innings versus the Phillies already this season, conceding four runs on seven hits with three walks. He's posting a 4.41 ERA over 12 starts on the road.
The Phillies are going with Kyle Kendrick (5-11, 4.90 ERA) who's also been hit hard lately. The 29 year old right-hander has allowed 10 runs on 15 hits over 10 innings in his last two starts. He's started one game versus the Cardinals this season, giving up five runs on eight hits over six innings.
All of the Cardinals last five games has gone over the total, and so has eight of Kendrick's last nine starts as well.
Michael Alexander
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Seattle Mariners -175
Hernandez was hit in the hip with a comebacker at Detroit on Saturday and left after five innings, ending a string of 16 straight starts with at least seven innings pitched and two or fewer earned runs allowed. The Cy Young frontrunner, who yielded two runs to the Tigers and suffered the loss, has issued a total of three walks in his last five starts. Hernandez has always had success against Boston and owns an 8-2 record with a 2.97 ERA in 15 career starts against the Red Sox.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +7½ & (+255) over WINNIPEG
We’re going to split this up and play a half unit on the Alouettes to win outright and 2.5 units on them to cover the number. As bad as the Als have been with just one win in seven games, they’re getting closer and one can just sense that they’re on the verge of a big game and a big win. That probably should’ve happened last week in Saskatchewan when they gave the Riders a big scare as 13-point dogs. That was the game Alex Brink took over from Troy Smith and went 19 for 31 for 187 yards in poor conditions. At least Brink moved the chains and he now has that full game under his belt. Montreal’s defense looks in fine shape and they still have one of the best offensive weapons in the league in Brandon Whitaker. Whitaker figures to get a ton of work against the Bombers soft defense. Overall, the Als have played consecutive games against B.C., Toronto, Edmonton and Saskatchewan and they take a step down here when facing a team that is very beatable right now. In fact, with Troy Smith at QB, Montreal scored 33 points against the Bombers back on July 11 but Winnipeg pulled a rabbit out of its hat and scored in the final seconds to win it, 34-33. That was probably the game we should have realized that Winnipeg could be a team in trouble.
The Bombers were crushed in Toronto last game while being outgained by almost 200 yards and surrendering nearly 500 yards of total offense. Over their past two games, Winnipeg has been outgained on the ground by a disturbing 250 yards. Drew Willy is not getting better each week. In fact, he’s getting worse. Willy is under constant pressure and as a result, he’s throwing the rock up for grabs. Winnipeg’s overall defense, pass protection and offense are all headed in the wrong direction, which is a poor recipe for spotting points. Winnipeg is just 2-2 at home and in Week 2 they were just a 4-point favorite over Ottawa. In Week 4 at Invesco Field, the Bombers were a 2-point choice over Edmonton and were buried by 23 points. Incredibly, the last time that Winnipeg was favored by 7 points or more was way back in October of 2011 when they were an 8-point favorite over the Argonauts and lost outright, 27-22. In 18 games last season, the Bombers were never favored. Winnipeg is not a team to be spotting significant points with. Montreal’s stock is still low after posting a 1-6 record to this point and because of its inability to score points. However, The Als are actually improving while the Bombers are regressing badly but this number does not reflect that. We’re calling the upset.
Pass NFL
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -1½ +114 over Houston
Brad Peacock has been just plain awful over the past month, with a 10.50 ERA in his past four starts. A 21% hr/f rate indicates some bad luck but he's contributed plenty to his own undoing with a BB/K split of 12/14 over his last 18 innings covering four starts. That high hr/f is also the result of a high fly-ball rate and that’s what you often get with fly-ball pitchers. The Indians .731 home OPS ranks 4th in the AL and it shows that they have the firepower to ruffle Peacock's feathers in this outing. We also love the fact that the Astros are coming off a four-game set in New York and while playing the Yankees isn’t what it used to be, playing in New York is still exciting, especially for young teams like the Astros.
Meanwhile, Carlos Carrasco has made just six starts this season. Carrasco opened the season in the rotation with disastrous results, allowing 17 runs in 22 innings. He did not make it past the sixth inning in any of his first four starts. A subsequent demotion to the pen straightened him out, where in 26 relief appearances covering 43 innings, Carrasco thrived with 39 K’s, 9 BB and a 2.30 ERA. In two starts since being reinserted into the rotation, Carrasco surrendered five hits and zero runs in 12 innings combined against the Yanks and Baltimore. He didn’t walk a single batter while striking out nine. He also posted an elite 55% groundball rate, an elite 13% swing and miss rate and an elite 14% line-drive rate. Carrasco has nasty stuff and now his confidence at this level has never been higher. Everything points to an easy victory by the Tribe and that’s how we’ll play it.
N.Y. Mets +120 over LOS ANGELES
Diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff last season, Jonathan Niese took six weeks off to rest/rehab and then he returned in the second half to put together a career-best run. Niese could be on the same path this year, as he returned from the DL in late July and he’s once again showing signs of getting stronger. Niese has struck out 12 batters over his last two starts, covering 13 innings. Niese’s solid command, strong groundball tilt and consistent history presents potential reward and this year his groundball rate is one of the best in the business at 55%. He’ll now face a Dodgers team that struggles against LHP, with their .683 OPS 12th in the NL.
Forget Niese for a second because this one is more about fading Dan Haren again. We faded him last weekend against Milwaukee and he didn’t make it past three innings after allowing six hits and five runs. It took Haren 74 pitches to get nine outs and he also walked three batters. Had Hyun-Jin Ryu not got injured, Haren would not be in the rotation. The Dodgers were so concerned about his ineffectiveness that they went out and traded for Kevin Correia, a move the Twinkies are still celebrating over. Haren’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 27%/27%/46% is enough to scare away even the biggest optimists. His swing and miss rate has been in decline for three straight years and it’s not getting any better. He’s been tagged for 10 jacks at Dodger Stadium in just 63 frames and as the innings pile up that number is in more danger. Dan Haren has one foot in the gutter and should the Dodger make the playoffs, you won’t see him anywhere near the mound. The Dodgers are praying he gives them five innings of decent service tonight but even they know that’s a stretch. Haren has lost it and while anything is possible in one game, he’s a huge risk as the chalk.
Rocketman
Pittsburgh vs Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -142
The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Brewers in Milwaukee on Friday night. Pittsburgh is 65-62 overall this year while Milwaukee comes in with a 71-56 overall record on the season. Pittsburgh has now lost 7 of their last 8 games overall while Milwaukee has won 5 of their past 6 games overall. Pittsburgh is scoring 3.3 runs per game their past 7 games overlal where they have a team batting average of only .223. Pittsburgh is allowing 5.7 runs per game their past 7 games overall. Yovani Gallardo gets the start for the Brewers where he is 8-6 with a 3.32 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA his last 3 starts. Milwaukee has won 10 of 13 overall meetings against Pittsburgh this year including 5-1 at home. Gallardo is 12-3 with a 2.43 ERA in his 23 starts against Pittsburgh in his career. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight.
Nelly
Tampa Bay Rays + over Toronto Blue Jays
The Rays have won 21 of the last 27 road games and this is a big series for Tampa Bay as they try to move up in the AL East, still sitting just behind Toronto. Drew Smyly was having a solid season for Detroit before he was shipped to the Rays in the deal for David Price. With less pressure on him in Tampa, Smyly has flourished with three strong starts since joining the team, allowing a total of five runs in 20 innings while striking out 19. Marcus Stroman has enjoyed an encouraging rookie season for the Blue Jays but it has come with great inconsistency. In three of his last eight starts he has a scoreless performance of seven innings but he has allowed five or more runs in a start of four or fewer innings three times in that span. Stroman owns good numbers at home but the Blue Jays continue to sink with losses in six of the last eight games and the Rays have posted better recent scoring numbers that Toronto even with yesterday's one-hit win. Tampa Bay owns the stronger bullpen and the Rays have as many road wins as the Jays have home wins this season.