Jack Jones
New York Yankees +100
Ryan Dempster and the Boston Red Sox awoke a sleeping giant when they intentionally hit Alex Rodriquez. The New York Yankees (68-59) have won five straight to get back in the AL East and AL Wild Card races.
With ace Hiroki Kuroda on the mound Friday, I look for the Yankees to win a sixth straight tonight over the Tampa Bay Rays. Kuroda is 11-8 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.054 WHIP over 25 starts this season. He has posted a 2.61 ERA in his last three starts as well.
Chris Archer is having a solid season for Tampa, going 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA over 15 starts. However, Archer has struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA in his last three starts. He is no match for Kuroda in this one.
Tampa Bay is 3-10 (-9.1 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season. The Yankees are 5-0 in Kuroda's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Tampa Bay is 2-7 in its last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Yankees Friday.
Joseph D'Amico
Bears vs. Raiders
Play: Over 38
Both teams have played to OVER'S in each of their four pre-season contests, with Chicago posting 50 points and yielding 52, while Oakland has scored 39 points and given up 45. In LY'S exhibition play, the Bears final 3 games saw the team tally 81 points. The Raiders accounted for 61 points in their last 3 exhibition games and allowed a whopping 72 points. During the regular season, the Oakland "D" allowed 27.6 PPG while Chicago either seemed to score points and hold opposing squads or was held and allowed foes to roll. The Raiders offense has been well-balanced, with the passing game racking up 332 yards in the air and the ground game totaling 178 yards rushing. The Bears "O" has accounted for 213 YP and 263 YR. Chicago's stop-unit gave up 292 yards to Carolina's "O" and a remarkable 204 yards on ST'S. While San Diego rallied for 383 offensive yards and 134 more with their return squad. Oakland's "D" yielded 291 yards top Dallas' offense plus 122 more to ST'S and were embarrassed by New Orleans' 23 first downs, 286 YP, 83 YR, and 140 ST'S yards. Right now, Chicago is 30/1 and Oakland 200/1 to win it all. Both squads give up points and both are vulnerable to the pass. Not to mention that each team has a "soft" ST unit. This game will fly OVER.
Jeff Alexander
San Diego Padres -123
San Diego's Volquez is 5-0 (7-0 on the moneyline) with a 2.76 ERA in 7 career starts against the Cubs. These 7 wins have come by an average of 4.6 runs. Chicago's Jackson, on the other hand, is 0-4 (1-6 on the moneyline) with a 5.56 ERA in 7 career starts versus the Padres. These 6 defeats have come by an average of 4.0 runs. Bet the Padres.
Dave Price
Cleveland Indians -157
The Indians, winners of 7 of 10, should take care of business against a Minnesota club that's dropped 7 of 10. The Tribe is 9-0 in its last 9 home games versus AL clubs that are averaging 4.2 runs or less per game. In addition, they have won 7 of Jimenez's last 9 starts at Progressive Field. The Indians are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-1 in Jimenez's last 7 starts as a favorite. The Twins are 4-9 in the struggling Deduno's last 13 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 road starts versus a team with a winning record. He's 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Twins are just 2-5 in their last 7 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Indians.
Steve Janus
Houston Astros +127
The Blue Jays are a miserable 1-6 on their current 10-game road trip and after getting swept by the Yankees they have now lost five straight. Hard for me to believe a team like Toronto with such huge expectations coming into the season will be motivated at all to play a team like the Astros. The sooner this season gets over the better for the Blue Jays.
While the Astros come in on a three-game losing streak of their own. You have to expect they are still going out there and trying to win, especially at home in front of what should be a decent crowd on a Friday night.
Houston's Jordan Lyles doesn't have very strong overall numbers (5-6, 5.19 ERA and 1.510 WHIP), but he's coming off a masterpiece against at Oakland. Lyles held the A's to just 1 run on 5 hits in 7 innings of a 5-4 Astros victory. Toronto counters with Todd Redmond, who will be making just the 9th start of his career. He quieted Houston earlier this season, holding the Astros to just 1 run on 3 hits. Keep in mind that was at home and typically a pitcher has the edge the first time they face an opponent. The Astros should have a much better understanding of what to expect from Redmond this time around.
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Calgary +3 over TORONTOFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You’re going to read about how the Stamps have a horrible history against the Argonauts over the past decade or so, especially in Toronto. In fact, the Double Blue has defeated the Stamps in 11 of the past 13 matchups, including six in a row. It gets even worse so try to wrap your head around this. The Stampeders are missing their starting quarterback (Drew Tate), starting tailback (all-star Jon Cornish), starting right guard (all-star Dimitri Tsoumpas), and four starting receivers in all-star Nik Lewis, Maurice Price, Joe West and Johnny Forzani. This is not privy information. Everyone knows the Stampeders come in here with more casualties than a Quinton Tarantino movie and a poor history. Why then, is the first place Argonauts just a small three-point choice here? That should make Argonaut backers a little bit nervous. The entire betting world is on the Argos and that’s another red flag we’re always aware of. That said, the Stamps are going to come in here and play their hearts out. They are sick of losing to this team and they’re even sicker about hearing about it every time they play Toronto. It’s time to put a stop to it and even without their top players, the Stamps are capable of coming up big.
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The Argonauts are saying the right things. They are insisting that they will not take this decimated team lightly. The Argos also have the league’s top rated passer in Ricky Ray, who has not thrown a pick the entire year and that has completed a sick 78% of his passes. For this game, the Argonauts stock is soaring while the Stamps stock is lower than it’s been all year. We’ve seen it over and over again in this league for years. That being, a team that looks great falters when least expected. The Riders looked unstoppable and all of a sudden, in the span of two weeks, they look awful. We saw signs of the Argonauts being in trouble when Mike Reilly carved up the Toronto defense for 511 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The Stamps have very capable back-ups at the QB and RB positions in Kevin Glenn and Matt Walter, respectively. Said Kevin Glenn about RB Walter, “You can’t go to sleep on him. He has that deceptive speed type of thing. He’s very quick in and out of the hole. I think he does a very good job of that”. In relief of Cornish last season, Walter averaged 7.1 yards per carry so the Argos better not take this guy lightly. In the end it would not surprise one bit to see the Argos roll over this intruder once again but we can’t get on board for that because it looks too easy and everyone is on that side. It’s also difficult to pull the trigger on the Stamps because of so many unknowns but one should never underestimate a banged up team with motivated players getting an opportunity. With that, we’re going to sit this one out and watch from the rail. No bets.
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TAMPA BAY -108 over N.Y. YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Give the Yankees credit for an outstanding run of late including a just completed four-game sweep of the Blue Jays. Since being swept by the White Sox upon A-Rod’s return, New York has won 10 of 14 games but seven of those 10 wins came against two reeling and banged up clubs, the Angels and Blue Jays. That run and the all the attention surrounding the Yanks has once again made them an overvalued proposition. Things get much more difficult on the road here for A-Rod and the Yanks where New York is two games under .500 this season. Hiroki Kuroda is having an outstanding season but he was whacked in his last start against the Red Sox in Boston and these Rays have also hit him hard. In fact, current Rays have a .304 batting average and an eye-opening .904 OPS against Kuroda in 92 AB’s. At the Trop, Kuroda has made two starts and has allowed 16 hits and 10 earned runs in 11.2 frames for an ERA of 6.17. Kuroda has a career batting average against at this venue of .333.
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The Rays are 41-23 at home. That’s close to a 65% winning percentage at the Trop, yet they are priced here as a team that wins about half of its home games. That’s value. Chris Archer is a hard thrower with swing-and-miss stuff that finally reined in his control. Archer’s overall skills mark his progress. Archer flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, Archer is gaining more confidence with each passing start. What really sticks out in Archer’s profile is a 16% line-drive rate and that suggests that hitters are having a difficult time squaring up on him. Lastly, current Yanks have just nine hits combined (.180) in 50 AB’s versus Archer, making him and the Rays a rock solid choice spotting less than a dime.
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Washington -104 over KANSAS CITYFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Royals have gone from contenders to pretenders by losing five in a row and eight of their past 10 games. This untimely run of poor results has K.C. sitting 9½-games back of the Tigers in the Central Division and 7 games back in the Wild Card race. With a chance to make up some ground with three games at home against the Marlins and White Sox, who were a combined 39-83 on the road this season before coming into Kaufman Stadium, the Royals proceeded to lose five of those six games. Reeling and in a demoralized state of mind, the Royals are a solid fade here with Bruce Chen trying to stop the bleeding. Chen's 5.09 xERA on a 2.20 ERA is the red flag here. An 84% strand rate has kept the base-runners who contributed to his 1.46 WHIP as a starter from scoring. While Chen maintained a decent strikeout rate as a reliever this year, that rate has dropped dramatically as a starter. Chen has just nine K’s over his past 19 frames and just three K’s in 12 innings in two of his past three starts. Bruce Chen couldn’t crack this rotation to start the year. He’s been moving from starter to reliever and back for years. Since 1998, when he first broke into the big leagues, Chen has pitched for Atlanta, Philly, the Mets, Cincinnati, Boston, Houston, Texas, Baltimore and finally K.C. They all can't be wrong. His ERA this season is a complete mirage. He has a disturbing fly-ball/groundball rate of 27%/54% and an even more disturbing rate of 23%/61% since being asked to start.
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The Nationals have won three in a row and scored 20 runs over that span. Gio Gonzalez had a horrible 5.34 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in July, primarily due to one awful start. His base skills in July were actually great with 35 K’s in 28 innings and a 58% groundball rate. Gonzalez was done in by an unlucky 42% hit rate and 19% hr/f in July. That hit rate was the highest of any starter in MLB that month. In three August starts, his hit rate has normalized and Gonzalez has allowed just four earned runs in 18 innings. He also struck out 16 batters while inducing 58% groundballs. Chen favored over Gonzalez might have had some merit a month ago but it has no merit right now considering the way that K.C. has fallen. Truth be told, Chen favored or at a pick’em over Gonzalez right now is bordering on ludicrous.
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Minnesota +149 over CLEVELANDFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indians return home from a nine-game trip with the last six games on the West Coast in Oakland and L.A. Cleveland won six of those nine games but luck played a huge role in the majority of those games, as the Tribe could have easily lost four of those six wins. Over its past 15 games, Cleveland is batting .219, which is the worst mark in the AL over that stretch. Ubaldo Jimenez continues to struggle with his consistency and control, two factors that make him a poor play in this matchup. Over his past five starts, Jimenez has an ugly 1.88 and 25% of his starts this season have been pure disasters outings. Between decreased velocity and the inability to avoid free passes, Jimenez is a huge risk spotting a price like the one here.
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The spoiler role is one that every team in every sport loves to play. The Twins just took two of three in Detroit and will welcome the opportunity to make life miserable for the Tribe. Sam Deduno is the definition of "mixed bag". Walks have always been a problem for Deduno, but he's made strides in managing the strike zone so far, cutting his control nearly in half from his career numbers. That’s a positive sign. He keeps the ball on the ground thanks to a sinking fastball with decent velocity (90-91 mph), which somewhat mitigates the need to rack up Ks. Deduno’s groundball rate is outstanding at 59% for the year. Stranger things have happened than a 30-year-old suddenly seeing the light (see: Dickey, R.A), and while his strikeout rate still needs work, his heavy GB tilt has made him fairly disaster averse (45%/18% quality start/disaster start). Sam Deduno is becoming very interesting and as a rather large dog against Jimenez and the cold bats of the Tribe, he and the Twinkies offer up some strong value here.
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Usmanee +400 over MendezFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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IBF super featherweight title – 12 RoundsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a superb match-up for Mike Tyson’s foray in the promotional end of boxing. Argenis Mendes was a talented amateur that has begun to find his way in pro ranks. He is fairly solid in every department. He can box, hit with authority and is quick. Argenis has also improved over the past two years, as evidenced by performing better in rematches with quality fighters Martin Honorio and Juan Carlos Salgado. Mendes lost to Salgado in late 2011 but was able to score a tremendous KO in their rematch earlier this year.
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Arash Usmanee is a native Afghan that has resided in Canada since he was a child. He also had a decorated amateur career and put on an impressive showing in a controversial loss to Cuban prospect Rances Barthelemy. After losing the first two rounds, he was able to walk down and land on Barthelemy for the remainder of the fight. Teddy Atlas had it 9-3 in rounds for Usmanee but he was in the Cuban’s backyard in Miami and was simply robbed. Usmanee is not the slick stylist that Mendes is. And he’s probably not the better puncher but he brings toughness and a work rate that can be a handful. The similarly stylish Barthelemy simply couldn’t discourage Usmanee, who kept walking forward and landing excellent power punches. If Mendes isn’t able to hurt Usmanee, he will have a tough fight on his hands. Usmanee threw over a 1000 punches in his bout with Barthelemy and had a lot of gas in the 12th round. Mendez is not 4½-1 better than Usmanee and we would go as far as saying that no result would be a surprise. In other words, Usmanee’s chances are so much better than these odds suggest and with him being such a large underdog, he’s absolutely worth a bet.
Craig Davis
Your free play winner this Friday night is the Yankees-Rays game to hold Under the total.
I'm not sure if it has anything to do with A-Rod joining the team or not, but the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now, winning 11 of their last 14 games to push to within six games of Boston for first place in the AL East.
While the hitting has definitely improved, I see the most improvement from the starters and the pen.
Andy Pettitte pitched brilliantly last night while Phil Hughes, who is flat out awful, pitched well over seven innings Wednesday to beat Toronto.
Tonight we get Hiroki Kuroda vs. Chris Archer in what should be a great matchup.
Archer is only 6-5 on the season despite a 2.95 ERA... and that's because his offense just simply doesn't support him with runs.
Kuroda is in a similar boat with the lack of run support, but he does own a better overall record (11-8) than Archer and comes in with a 2.41 ERA.
Kuroda hasn't allowed an earned run in three of his last five starts and is coming off his worst performance of the year... and he only allowed three earned runs if that tells you how good and consistent he's been all season.
Take the Rays and Yanks to go UNDER the posted total as your free play of the day.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES-TAMPA BAY UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Dodgers over the Red Sox
Possible October preview here, and for my money the Dodgers are now the team to beat this upcoming postseason.
Another win yesterday afternoon for Los Angeles, and they come back home with a 10-2 run working for them over their last dozen games. In that span, the LA pitching staff has held the opposition to just a 1.86 ERA.
Ricky Nolasco is a man with a new lease on life after getting dealt to the Dodgers from the last place Marlins. Nolasco is 4-1 with Los Angeles with a 2.98 ERA in his 8 starts in Dodgers blue.
John Lackey goes for the first place Red Sox, and his road numbers are far inferior to the work he has done at Fenway Park, as Lackey is just 3-8 with a 4.12 ERA on the highway this year.
Dodgers to draw first blood in this "barometer" series.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Brad Wilton
Friday night's comp play winner is the Nationals over the Royals.
It was fun while it lasted, but it looks like the bubble has burst on Kansas City's playoff dreams.
The Royals have dropped 5 in a row, and are now 7 games back in the wild card standings.
The KC offense has gone south - 2.1 runs per game in losing 8 of their last 10 games overall - and is likely to stay south when they face Gio Gonzalez.
Gio has allowed just 4 runs to score in his last 18 innings pitched, and his team comes into Kansas City having won 3 straight to pull to within a game of the .500 mark for the first time since the middle of July.
Bruce Chen will make the start for the Royals, and Chen is coming his first loss of the season, allowing 6 runs and 8 hits in just over 5 innings of work his last time out.
Things just not going in Kansas City's favor right now, while Washington has a little mojo going for themselves coming into this one, so let's back the Nats to hand the Royals loss #6 in a row.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Brett Atkins
My free winner for tonight is on the Houston Astros at home against the struggling Toronto Blue Jays, who I think will have problems in the Houston humidity to start this series, after getting stymied in New York in a four-game set. Forget about the Jays winning on six straight Fridays, and I know both teams are in on losing streaks after being swept, but Toronto has been on the road and are still on the road.
Don't bother listing either starting pitcher - Toronto right-hander Todd Redmond or Houston righty Jordan Lyles - because this looks more like a momentum play and simply going against a travel-weary Toronto team that won't want to deal with the climate. Trust me - that's a big deal in baseball.
And Houston is no fun in the summer months, as it's far too humid.
Toronto's five-game losing streak is extended tonight, as the Astros take Game 1.
2♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Chicago White Sox over the Texas Rangers.
Yes, the Rangers have won eight straight on the road, and yes they're about 22 games better than the South Siders, but there's something to be said about a losing team on a win streak. And with Chicago riding a six-game spree, I like the fact the oddsmakers have made the White Sox a favorite in this game.
Ever heard of a trap game? This could very well be it, if the Vegas Village idiots down on the Strip are begging bettors to take the underdog here.
I'm not listing pitchers in this one, as it's a pure momentum play, but I will tell you I don't mind knowing Chris Sale is on the bump for the Sox. The young southpaw has won his last three starts after stifling Minnesota to three runs over seven innings on Saturday. The 24-year-old has registered quality starts in 19 of his 23 outings, including nine of his last 10. And make note, he is 3-0 with a 3.38 ERA in seven games (three starts) against Texas during his career.
Yeah, I'll lay the money here.
2♦ CHICAGO
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is out of the American League West, as I like the Seattle Mariners to get things done on the Run Line against the Angels of Anaheim. Although all Run Line and Total plays will automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, I am not concerned with who goes for either team tonight and want you playing this game on the Run Line regardless.
That being said, IT IS YOUR RESPONSIBILITY to be sure you have action even if one of the pitchers scheduled to start is scratched, and re-wager the game if that takes place.
And don't get me wrong, I do like the fact we'll have Felix Hernandez on the hill tonight. Though Seattle's ace right-hander Hernandez has allowed five or more runs in two of his last three outings and lasted only five innings against Texas in his last start, this is his favorite opponent to pitch against.
King Felix has a 3.97 ERA in 33 career starts against the Halos, and is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts against them this season.
More than anything, though, the Halos have struggled and come in mired in a four-game slide.
1♦ MARINERS -1.5
Big Al McMordie
Take under between
Philly and Arizona