Hollywood Sports
Padres at Diamondbacks
Prediction: Under
Arizona (64-61) enters this series after their 3-0 win versus Miami -- and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing two runs or less in their last game. The Under is also 10-4-1 in the Diamondbacks last 15 home games when a big favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. They send out Corbin here who is 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP this season. Corbin has been particularly tough at home where he owns a 2.36 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and a mere .214 opponent's batting average. He has pitched at least 6 innings in each of his last four starts. And in his last 4 starts against a fellow rival from the NL West, Arizona has played all 4 of these games Under the Total. San Diego (56-70) has played 4 straight road games as a big underdog in the +151 to +200 price range. They counter with Stults who is 3-2 with a 3.06 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP this season. Stults has been better on the road with a 2.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .229 opponent's batting average as compared to his 3.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .281 opponent's batting average when at home. The Padres have played 4 straight games with Stults pitching as an underdog.
Greg Shaker
Tampa Bay +7
I am not about to tell you that this Bucs Team is very good and that they are going to challenge for a Playoff Birth. They do have a lot of problems. However, they also have a number of battles going on for starting positions and they have also been challenged by their head coach to be more physical. The word that I have is that D starters will get a much longer look than most NFL Teams give during the 3rd week of the season. We do have a Patriots squad that played just this past Monday. Coach Bill held out a lot of players in that game and he is certainly known for doing so throughout his career. He is evaluating talent, and not concerned with winning. Perhaps that is why he is already 0-2 ATS this year. Let's grab these points tonight..
Jeff Alexander
NY Mets -1.5 +101
The Astros, who have lost 7 in a row by an average of 5.6 runs, are 0-9 in Lyles' last 9 starts and 0-16 in his last 16 road starts. Those 9 defeats have come by 4.9 runs on average, and those 16 losses have come by an average of 4.3 runs. Take New York on the run line.
Steve Janus
Pittsburgh Pirates -103
The Pirates come into Friday's night series opener against the Brewers desperately searching for a win to get back on track. Pittsburgh was just swept in San Diego.
With a day off to regain their focus and a return to their home park, I fully expect the Pirates to answer the call tonight. Pittsburgh is an impressive 37-23 at home this season and will take on a Brewers squad that is a miserable 19-38 on the road.
If that isn't enough to get you going. How about the Brewers are just 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Pittsburgh is 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing record, 27-13 in their last 40 vs. National League Central, and 21-7 in their last 28 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Dave Price
Cincinnati Reds -118
Reds showing value at home at this price against a St. Louis club they have defeated 4 straight times. The Reds are 5-1 in Latos' last 6 starts and 9-1 in his last 10 home starts. That doesn't bode well for the Cardinals, who are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Also, the Cards have lost 3 of their last 4 with Lynn on the mound. Bet the Reds.
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -103
At 67-57 on the season, the Baltimore Orioles are right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race. They face the Toronto Blue Jays at home tonight, who are 56-68 on the year and fading fast. Toronto has lost five straight and 18 of its last 23 games overall.
Zach Britton started slow, but he is coming off his best start of the season. Britton pitched seven shutout innings of a 3-2 victory at Detroit his last time out on August 18th. The left-hander will shut down a Blue Jays team that has scored 3 runs or less in seven straight games, averaging 2.1 runs/game over this span.
Carlos Villanueva is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA over three road starts this season for Toronto. The right-hander has posted a 4.96 ERA and 1.470 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore.
The Blue Jays are 1-11 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Toronto is 1-5 in Villanueva's last 6 road starts. The Orioles are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Baltimore is 6-0 in Britton's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Orioles Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Mets -1.5 +101
The Astros have now lost 7 in a row with each of those 7 defeats coming by at least 2 runs. I expect their woes to continue tonight with Jordan Lyles on the hill.
The Houston right-hander is 0-6 (0-9 on the money line) with an ERA of 7.58 on the road this season. Each of Houston's last 6 road losses with him on the mound have come by at least 4 runs. Dating back to last season, the Astros are 0-16 in his last 16 road starts. 11 of those losses have come by 2 runs or more.
New York's Jon Niese enters in top form (2.11 ERA last 3 starts) and has been rock solid all season (10-6, 3.49 ERA). I expect him to put forth another strong effort tonight and for the New York bats to take care of the rest. Bet the Mets on the run line.
Rich Sports
Play Texas minus the run line versus Minnesota. Texas (73-51) will start Matt Harrison (14-7, 3.19 ERA) who has won his last two starts against the Twins while posting a 1.17 ERA. He beat them April 13, yielding one run in eight innings in a 4-1 road victory. Minnesota (51-73) will counter with Samuel Deduno (4-1, 3.33) who has constantly battled control problems, issuing 36 walks in 46 innings over eight starts. That includes walking at least five in each of his last three outings. The Rangers have pounded Minnesota pitching as Hamilton has a .324 career average and is hitting .364 with six doubles, three homers and 12 RBIs in his last 11 meetings. Beltre is batting .426 with 15 runs in 13 games against the Twins, and the third baseman is also on a tear in his past six games at home, going 12 for 26 with four homers and six RBIs. This is a non chase play.
Wunderdog
St. Louis at Cincinnati
Pick: St. Louis +110
This is a big series for the Cardinals, sitting games behind the Reds. They will have to make some noise here if they want to contend for the NL Central. This team can never be counted out as we witnessed a year ago. The Reds' huge streak is over, and they have been rather vulnerable and pedestrian since at just 10-9 in their last 19 games. The pitching has betrayed them over their last nine games, as they have allowed opponents to average 5.4 runs per game. St. Louis got to Matt Latos in his only start against them this season, as the Cards touched him for 8 runs in 5.2 innings of work. Lance Lynn will be facing the Reds for the first time, and he has been highly effective when pitching against a team for the first time. St. Louis is 17-8 in his 25 starts on the season. Play on St. Louis.
Dave Essler
Eagles / Browns Under 37
Our long term clients got this yesterday at 38, which is obviously a better number. That would be an indirect way of saying get a long term package. However, I still think this is a solid play. These teams play each other in Week One of the regular season, and with Vick wounded, of course they'll play Foles, who we like, but only for about a quarter. That leave the rest of the game to Trent Edwards, whose trying to win the #3 job right now. He's just not a real threat to march a team down the field. He's always been on to check down to the second and third options too often, and remember he'll be doing this with second and third string (or worse) players. And yes, the Browns would love to win this game and probably will, but even though Weeden a fair bit, but this will be a real vanilla game given that week one matchup. Even when McCoy and or Wallace play (it doesn't matter the rotation) they'll be going against Eagles that are both deep on defense and are trying to make the club. This game becomes a late field goal battle, IMO.
Scott Delaney
Tonight my free winner will be a stunner if it comes in. I like the Cleveland Indians plus a big price against the New York Yankees, as the struggling Tribe is catching a big number against a suddenly downtrodden Bombers squad that has lost three in a row after being swept on the south side of Chicago.
If there was ever a chance for a team like Cleveland to score an upset, it's tonight, as the Yankees will activate fireballing-ace C.C. Sabathia from the disabled list after missing two weeks with a sore left elbow. Though the ace is 3-0 with a 3.89 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break, let's not forget this is his old stomping grounds, and he could have all sorts of emotions brewing tonight.
The key is for Cleveland's Corey Kluber to get past the first inning. Sick as this sounds, the rookie right-hander has a 22.50 ERA in the first inning, compared to a 1.84 ERA in all other innings.
So with the Yankees reeling after getting dismissed by the Chicago White Sox, you're damn right I'm going to take a shot with the unassuming Indians. You can say New York was tired as it finished a stretch of 20 games in as many days, but one day off and still being on the road isn't going to help.
Take the home dog.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is now at 96-62-2 after losing with the Tigers Run Line last night. I'll skip the baseball freebies, as I think the three 25 Dimers I'm giving you is plenty. Instead, let's take a look at the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins on the gridiron instead, as I like the road chalk here.
First-year Miami Dolphins coach Joe Philbin has made three big decisions thus far, since his tenure has started.
No. 1 on that list, naming Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback.
No. 2, dismissing receiver Chad Johnson from the team, on national television no less, after the highly publicized star was released from jail on an alleged domestic incident.
No. 3, and the one I think has been the most detrimental, allowing HBO's cameras to join the team for its annual series Hard Knocks.
I simply think it's been too much of a distraction for the Fins, and tonight they're going to be exposed by a very good, very explosive Atlanta Falcons offense. Quarterback Matt Ryan has been on fire this preseason, including last week's impressive 18-of-21, 174-yard, one touchdown performance in a 24-19 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Against the always daunting Baltimore Ravens-defense, in the preseason opener, a 31-17 loss, he made good on 9-of-13 attempts for 155 yards with one touchdown.
Tonight we're going to see Ryan and receiver Julio Jones have their biggest game, making a statement to the entire league exactly who might be the best NFL-battery in the league. And not only cause it's long overdue, but because it's also overdue the Falcons snap a losing streak that is now at seven straight preseason games.
That includes last year's 28-23 Miami win at the Georgia Dome.
Look for revenge tonight, as the Falcons soar.
1♦ ATLANTA
Craig Davis
5 straight free play winners with San Francisco over Atlanta last night!
Free play for Friday is the Dodgers on the Run Line.
Banking on the fact the Dodgers are pissed after getting swept by the Giants and will come out today with fire in their belly to destroy the Marlins and get back into the race in the NL West.
The Marlins have beaten the Dodgers only once this season, 7-3, but scored only two runs in the other two games of a three-game series. The Dodgers, on the other hand, scored 13 runs in that series with help from Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez... a former Marlin.
The Dodgers (67-58) fell out of the top spot in the NL West after that three-game sweep, scoring just six runs in those three games. However, they scored 64 runs in their previous 11 games... winning eight of those 11.
The Dodgers have won five of the last seven vs. Florida, and they will look to continue that torrid pace when they send red-hot Chad Billingsley to the mound. Billingsley (10-9, 3.44 ERA) has won all six of his starts with a 1.30 ERA since coming back off the DL with some elbow soreness. In fact, he hasn't allowed a run in his past 15 innings pitched.
Gonna be hard to top that.
How about seven innings and just three hits in a 5-0 win over Atlanta Sunday?!?! He's also 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA in six career starts against the Marlins and is looking to become the first Los Angeles Dodger since Kevin Brown to win seven starts in a row.
Nathan Eovaldi (4-8, 4.03) counters for the Marlins and is trying to beat his old club for the first time since being moved. His biggest problem lately has been control... 13 walks in his last three outings. That won't work tonight.
Take the Dodgers on the run line as your free play of the day.
3♦ L.A. DODGERS -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Friday free play comes right down Broadway, and that is to go with the New York Yankees to get a major lift behind their horse CC Sabathia, as the Yankees drub the Indians on the Run Line.
New York's lead in the A.L. East has been trimmed to 2 1/2-games, as the Yankees have dropped three in a row and five of their last seven. That is the bad news. The good news is they are facing a team that is in a longer free-fall.
Cleveland has lost their last eight games, and they have also lost all three to the Yankees this season, and nine of their last 13 at home to the Yanks.
Sure the price on the Run Line is a little steep, but can a case really be made for a team that has dropped 21 of their last 25 games overall?
I don't think so.
New York needs to make a statement tonight after getting shut down by the tough pitching of the Chicago White Sox earlier this week.
Cleveland starter Corey Kluber is 0-2 in his four starts - all four have been Cleveland losses! - and his ERA is over six. This looks like the recipe for a big break-out night at the plate for the Yankees.
New York an easy Run Line winner.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Chris Jordan
My free winner last night was in the NFL, an easy choice with the Green Bay Packers getting it done on the road over the Cincinnati Bengals. Tonight I am back on the MLB diamond with a solid choice, taking the New York Mets on the Run Line against the lowly Houston Astros in what should be a blowout.
The Mets blew a great MLB debut yesterday, as Colin McHugh was dominant in one of the most impressive introductions in franchise history. McHugh struck out nine over seven scoreless innings, but the offense was completely silent in a 1-0 loss to the Rockies, at Citi Field.
This is redemption time now.
And I think they have the right guy for the job, as Jon Niese is on the hill for the Mets, coming in after a brilliant start against the league-leading Nationals, striking out seven and pitching into the eighth. And even though the Mets are reportedly keeping a close eye on Niese down the stretch this season, it's still August.
And tonight he gets the worst team in baseball, and will dominant. He's 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA in his last three starts, and clearly outclasses Houston's Jordan Lyles, the youngest starting pitcher in the bigs. The Houston right-hander is 2-10 with a 5.70 ERA this season, and is going to be in for a rough one here.
All Mets, on the Run Line.
5♦ N.Y. METS -1.5