Matt Rivers
Easy free play winner on Thursday as I gave you the Over in the Jacksonville-Baltimore preseason game.
Tonight another preseason winner, as I side with the Falcons minus the points to cover in Miami.
Both squads are looking for their first win of the practice season, but it will be the Falcons who get off the schneid this Friday night. Simply put, Atlanta is a little further along than Miami at this point.
The Falcons starters have actually outplayed the opposition in their first two games, leaving with the lead in both games before a porous back-up defense has let those leads slip away. Not tonight, as Mike Smith has said his starters will play into the second half in this one.
Miami is still working on installing their new offense, and of course rookie Ryan Tannehill trying to run it is going to take time.
You saw the favored team cover ALL three games last night, and I think you will see the favorite cover the majority tonight.
Have to go with the Falcons to soar in this one.
5♦ ATLANTA
Dom Chambers
The Phillies came through in extra innings for my free-play winner Thursday. That puts my current run at 30-14. Let’s add to that win total
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the over in the Braves-Giants game.
The line is set at 7, but this is a case of two pitchers, who both started out hot, but have hit a bump in the road.
The Braves start Ben Sheets and in his last three starts, he is 1-2 with a 5.12 ERA. He has had back-to-back games where he has given up at least five runs.
The Giants start Ryan Vogelsong, who also has struggled. In his last three games, he is 1-2 with a 7.81 ERA and a WHIP of 2.052. In his last two starts, he has pitched 5 2/3 innings and given up 11 runs.
With a total set so low, these pitchers will both give up a few runs and it should easily get there.
3♦ BRAVES-GIANTS OVER
Teddy Covers
San Diego at Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -3.5
There’s a world of difference between the approaches these two teams are taking towards tonight’s Week 3 preseason tilt. That’s why we’ve seen steady money in support of the Vikings since the opener. And while this line has risen above the key number of -3 for the Vikings, that does not preclude a recommendation here in the preseason where catching the three is not as key as it will be once the regular season begins.
The Chargers are a veteran team with nothing to prove here in August. They are riddled with offensive line injuries. At least two OL starters and quite possibly a third, will be sitting out tonight’s game. That leaves the status of star QB Philip Rivers in question as well. Head coach Norv Turner hinted that Rivers could see his playing time limited tonight if the OL can’t protect him “Philip would be ready to play if we didn’t play him again in the preseason. He’s played an awful lot of football.”
San Diego scored three cheap fourth quarter touchdowns last week against Dallas, winning and covering in a game where they were largely outplayed. That dissipates whatever little pressure the Chargers had for a strong showing tonight. Minnesota, on the other hand, is coming off the worst season in franchise history. They clearly have something to prove in front of the home fans, just as they did last week with their blowout win against Buffalo.
The Vikings have a young, unproven starter at QB with Christian Ponder who needs reps and needs downfield throws. They also have a lot of competition for roster spots, ensuring that we’ll get good focus throughout the second half, when most pointspreads are decided. Head coach Leslie Frazier: “We're trying to determine a little bit about our starters. We still have some positions where people are fighting for starting jobs.”
Frazier continued: “For the guys that are on the bubble – for the 75 as well as the 53 – when they get their turn in the game Friday night, it's going to be so, so important that they show that they deserve to be a part of next week's team We put a lot of weight into what happens when those guys get in the game in the second half on Friday night." Expect the different focus level of these two squads to be on full display tonight!
Joe Gavazzi
Bears / Giants Over 40.5
You've been spending too much time on the golf course or at the pool if you haven't noticed the increased scoring in August NFL games this year! After the teams combined to go 13-2-1 OVER last week, averaging nearly 45 PPG, the three games exploded last night for 164 points or nearly 55 PPG. In a made for TV CBS preseason special which features each team fielding quality QB rotations, look for footballs to be flying once again this evening! Today's free NFL TV opinion is on the OVER 41 Bears vs. Giants game.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Detroit/ Angels Over 9: Angels starter, Zach Greinke, has struggled since his return to the AL, as he has a 6.19 ERA overall and a 7.20 ERA in his last 4 starts. He has allowed 4 ER's or more in each of his last 4 starts and those starts have seen at least 11 runs scored. Tonight Zach will be facing a Tigers team that had some scoring problems vs the Jays, but they still have averaged 4.9 rpg at home and 5.4 rp/ 9 innings off of righties at Comerica. The Angels will be missing Pujols again, but they still have plenty of others that can step in and produce. Trout, Trumbo and company were without Pujols last night and they still put up 14 runs in Boston. The Angels come in averaging 5.3 rpg on the road and should have a good chance of hitting at least that mark vs Detroit'd Rick Porcello, who has struggled of late. Rick has a 5.11 ERA in his last 7 starts overall and he has a 4.62 ERA at home on the year. His home starts this year have averaged 9.5 rpg, while his night starts have put up 10.5 rpg. Rick also has a 6.29 ERA in 6 starts vs the Halos, despite a 3-1 mark. Those 6 starts hace all hit at least 11 runs. This one should hit DD's with ease.
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis/ Cincinnati Over 8: Mat Latos have pitched very well for the Reds of late, but he will be facing a hot St Louis offense tonight. St Louis has scored 32 runs in their last 5 games and they have averaged 6.36 rpg in Lance's 14 road starts this year. St Louis is also a team that Mat has had trouble with, posting a 9.75 ERA in 5 career starts vs them and in those 5 starts he has allowed 7 ER"s or more in 3 of those. Lance Lynn comes in struggling right now as he has a 6.49 ERA in his last 5 starts. Lance has a 3.98 ERA on the road and those starts have averaged 10.93 rpg. The Reds have a good offense at home, where they average 4.7 rpg overall and 4.4 rpg for Mat at home. With the way the Cards give great run support to Lance and with the way the Reds score at home, I just don't see how these team don't hit at least 4 runs each.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Texas -1.5 (-120) over Minnesota: Gotta love the Rangers here. The Rangers have a a 6 game lead over the A's and an 8.5 game lead of the Halos and with LA in Detroit and Oakland in Tampa they know that they can't really widen the gap between those teams, by beating up on the lowly Twins. The Rangers beat the Twins 10-6 last night and in their last 4 wins they have outscored their opponents by 6.5 rpg. The Rangers have scored 8.2 rpg in their last 5 games and 5.7 rpg in their last 10 games. Tonight they face Sam Deduno, who has not pitched that badly for the Twins, but teams may be figuring him out as he has a 4.76 ERA in his last 3 starts. He also doesn't have an advantage over the Rangers as they faced him in his first career start and put up 3 ER's on 6 hits and 3 walks in 5.1 innings vs him. The Twins come in struggling on offense as they have averaged just 3.5 rpg in their last 10 games and 2.3 rp/ 9 off of lefties over that stretch. Matt Harrison has been very good for the Rangers this year, but he has really been good at night posting a 2.29 ERA and in his last 3 starts vs the Twins he has allowed just 1 ER in each start. Now let's look at the final nail in the coffin for this play. The Rangers average 6.3 rp/ 9 innings off of righties at home, while the Twins average just 3.5 rp/ 9 innings off of lefties on the road. Look for the Rangers to win by 4+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2010 Texas is 17-4 SU and 15-6 vs the RL off a win in which they allowed at least 5 walks and came back from a deficit. Texas has outscored their opponents by 3.5 rpg in this situation.
Tampa Bay/ Oakland Under 7: I know that the OU is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings, but we also note that the OU is 55-20-4 in Tampa's last 79 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jarod Parker has struggled on the road with a 5.11 ERA, but Tamps is not a great hitting team and they only average 3.8 rpg in their own park this year. Matt Moore has been very solid since the break, posting a 1.63 ERA in 7 starts and he hasn't allowed more than 2 ER's in any of those starts. Matt has allowed just 2 HR's in his last 9 starts and both came in his last start vs the Halo's. The A's do score 4.3 rpg on the road, but have been struggling offensively overall, averaging just 3.6 rpg in their last 5 and they were shutout last night. Behind these two starters we have a couple of very hot pens, as the A's have a 1.88 ERA in their last 10 games, while Tampa's pen has a ridiculous ERA of 0.38 in their last 10 games. Just don't see how this game reaches 7 runs.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (45-23 +15.14 UNITS)
Since 2008 the Reds are 17-3 at home vs a divisional opponent when they are off a 1 run loss. Play on Cincinnati -122 over St Louis.
Since 2007 the Angels are 11-0 when they are off a game in which they had at least 45 at bats. Play on LA Angels -103 over Detroit.
SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI -118 over St. Louis
Cincinnati has all but run away with the NL Central, currently eight games up on St. Louis and this could be final nail in the coffin with a series win here.
The struggling Lance Lynn has his work cut out for him, especially if he keeps walking batters at his August rate in which he’s walked 12 batters in 21 frames. Lynn’s last good start was more than a month ago when he beat the Cubs at Wrigley. A troublesome 38%/27%/35% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last five starts suggests even stronger that fatigue is setting in. That groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate over his last two starts has dropped to an eye-opening 13%/50%/35%. This is a pitcher in deep trouble and Great American is as unforgiving as any park in the league for struggling hurlers.
Mat Latos has been terrific all season after a rough April. At this park, Latos has a very impressive 3.14 ERA with full skills support. His low walks and high strikeout numbers have maintained their high level and consistency. This is an elite pitcher that has just three losses on the year. On the surface, this is not a pitching mismatch because Lance Lynn is 13-5 with a 3.78 ERA. Under the hood, it’s evident that Lynn is hanging on for dear life and an implosion at this park appears inevitable.