Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 26,2011

Marc Lawrence

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

The White will look to extend their winnings ways against the Mariners when they send Jake Peavy to the mound in Seattle Friday evening. Peavy enters tonight's fray in great KW form with six walks and 32 strikeouts in his last six starts knowing he is 11-4 in his last 15 road team starts during the month of August. He's also 5-1 with a 1.96 ERA in his career team starts against the M's. With that, look for the Pale Hose to improve to 14-3 the last 17 games in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on the White Sox.

Scott Spreitzer

Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Roy Oswalt has put up strong numbers at home this season for the Phils, and he has done the same throughout his career against the Marlins. And when he leads his team to a win, it's normally by a wide margin. The Phils have won seven of Oswalt's starts this season with six of those wins coming by at least two runs. In fact, five wins came by at least three runs, and the average final score in the seven victories finds Philly on the "right" side of 6.6-2.1 margin. Clay Hensley takes the bump for the "Fish" tonight. The righty has been crushed on the road this season and he has been tagged for 19 earned runs and 35 base runners in his last four starts, spanning 17 1/3 innings. The Marlins have lost five straight with Hensley on the mound, by a combined score of 37-12. I expect the Phillies to make quick work of Hensley tonight. I'm laying the Run Line with Philadelphia on Friday.

VEGAS EXPERTS

St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs

You won't find any team worse than Kansas City when it comes to the NFL preseason. The Chiefs are 0-10 ATS under head coach Todd Haley in these games, going 1-9 straight up (0-7 ATS as an underdog). The most points they've scored in any preseason game under Haley is 17. With tonight's small line, we have to back the visiting Rams, considering they beat up on a similarly bad Colts team 33-10 in the preseason opener. St. Louis is 2-0 for HC Steve Spagnuolo this preseason and 4-0 ATS all-time on the road during his short tenure.

Play on: St. Louis

Matt Fargo

Oakland Athletics vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Oakland probably still has no idea what hit them yesterday in the Bronx following a 21-2 run by the Yankees in their blowout loss. The A's head to Boston in what is an extremely tough situation. Gio Gonzalez is coming off an outstanding effort in his last game as he allowed just one run in eight innings against Toronto. That game was at home however where Gonzalez is 8-4 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 14 starts. On the road though he is 2-7 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.61 WHIP and he brings in a career ERA of 5.64 in four starts against the Red Sox. After getting shutout in the opening game of their series against Texas, the Red Sox took the final three games and they were dominating in doing so, outscoring the Rangers 30-7. they remain a game up on the Yankees in the American League East and Tim Wakefield heads to the hill in search of his 200th victory. He has been pitching pretty solid of late as he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last eight starts and four runs or less in seven of those eight games. The Red Sox are 6-2 in his eight home starts this year and five of his last six home starts against Oakland have been quality outings. 3* Boston Red Sox

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers apply to a solid system that plays on certain home favorites off a road dog win,vs an opponent off a -140 or higher home favorite win and scored 5 or more runs. A second system which plays against Colorado here goes against road dogs off a home favored win at -140 or higher by 1 run and scored 5 or more runs, leaving 10 or more men on base vs an opponent that scored 5 or more runs. The Dodgers have won 13 of the last 18 vs losing teams and acre scoring 6.6 runs per game the past week. Colorado is just 2-12 as a road from +125 to +150. The Dodgers have T. Lilly going and he has a 2,75 era over his last three and allowed just 2 runs in 7 innings here vs Colorado. Colorado counters with E. Rogers. In his last 3 starts he has a 5.29 era and 6.75 vs the Dodgers. Based on the 2 systems the Power Angles and pitching we will lean with the Dodgers for the free play.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

A long road trip for Tampa Bay, north of the border, and they are favored. James Shields has been hit hard his last 2 starts, giving up 10 runs in 15 innings. The Rays are 14-30 in Shields' last 44 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-4 his last 4 road starts. His earned run average is a full run higher away than at home. Toronto is home and has a powerful offense. The Blue Jays are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter and 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play the Blue Jays!

David Banks

Rams vs. Chiefs Under

The third week of the NFL preseason is set to go Friday night from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City where the Chiefs will look to secure their second outright and first ATS cover of the Todd Haley regime in the exhibition season against the St. Louis Rams; kick-off is set for 8:00 ET.

After looking like rock ‘n’ roll stars against a disinterested bunch of Colts in their first preseason tune-up, the Rams looked rather pedestrian in their follow up last week at home against the Tennessee Titans. Sure, QB Sam Bradford’s first pass of the game went for an 83-yard TD pass to WR Brandon Gibson, but the offense only mustered 200 yards and 10 points the rest of the way with the final three coming at the last second to win the game. On top of that, HC Steve Spagnuolo’s defense left much to be desired as it allowed the Titans to combine for 347 yards (198 on the ground) and only managed to secure one QB sack.

Chiefs HC Todd Haley isn’t one to care much about the preseason. He looks to be cut from the same cut as the Indianapolis Colts, as Kansas City is now just 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS since he took over the franchise‘s reigns. After getting whitewashed at home by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers which was nothing more than a dress rehearsal for the Chiefs, KC went into Baltimore and took the Ravens best punches for the first 52+ minutes of the game; then all hell broke loose and KC choked away the cover. The QB trio of Matt Cassel, Tyler Palko and Ricky Stanzi combined to throw for 194 yards, but the staple of the Chiefs attack, the running game, churned out less than 100 yards for the second time this preseason.
This is “dress rehearsal” week, so expect both squads to keep their starters in well into the 3rd quarter if not longer. These teams last met in the exhibition season back in 2009 when the Rams scored the 17-9 home win and cover as one-point home chalks. St. Louis is 7-3 ATS its L/10 preseason tussles winning and covering each of its L/4 as visitors. Kansas City has failed to win or cover each of its L/7 as NFLX underdogs.

Fairway Jay

St. Louis at Kansas City
Play: Kansas City +1.5

The Chiefs have played poorly in the first two preseason games while scoring just 0 and 13 points in a pair of one-sided losses. However, like the brutal Bengals last night, the Chiefs should bring a much better effort at home against the Rams. St. Louis is 2-0, but head coach Steve Spagnola did not like his teams tackling or run defense last week as they allowed 198 yards rushing and missed too many tackles on cutback plays by the Titans. The Rams generated just 200 yards offense after their opening 83-yard touchdown pass from Sam Bradford on the first play from scrimmage.

The Chiefs running game was the best in the NFL last season averaging 164 ypg, and the offensive line seems to be in good shape this season. Despite the release of Pro-Bowl guard Brian Waters, the unit should come together soon and the running game can be top-tier again with the addition of fullback Le’Ron McClain blocking for Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.

The Chiefs poor record is no surprise, as head coach Todd Haley is now 0-12-1 ATS in preseason games. Haley has been reluctant to play his starters significant minutes because of the shorter training camp, or even scheme for the opposing team, choosing instead to focus on conditioning, learning the playbook and getting everybody up to speed.

While Haley seems to care little about the actual outcomes, he did indicate the following about this contest and playing at home. “Our home field advantage, our ability to win games at home is very important to our overall success. That showed last year and it showed here in the past, so I think the earlier you establish that, even in the preseason when the numbers won’t count obviously, you can establish some of that feel and confidence.”

Kansas City held Baltimore to 10 points through three quarters last week before allowing 21 points in the fourth quarter with many players that will not make the team. Now the starters will play into the third quarter, and we’ll call for a more aggressive game on defense and the Chiefs to show better this week.

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +149 over ST. LOUIS

The Cardinals won last night to snap a losing streak but so what. They’ve still lost seven of its last 10 games and most of the players couldn’t give a damn and they continue to be overvalued almost daily. This is a team that is just going through the motions right now and can’t wait for the season to end. Not even Dave Duncan can turn cat food into caviar, as is the case with Jake Westbrook. Westbrook has issued 56 walks while striking out just 80 in 149 frames. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats and at Busch he’s 3-4 with an ERA of 5.96. At best, Jake Westbrook and the Cards are a 50/50 proposition here and that’s why they Bucs are a solid play taking back almost 7½-5. James McDonald has been trying to live up to his potential since his days as a Dodger prospect, and at times this year he's been brilliant. Even more encouraging is that he's begun to find consistency in the second half of the season. His strikeout rate for 2011 isn't bad and he's picked up his strikeout rate since July. For the season, McDonald's numbers don't wow anyone. But his performance lately has been worth attention. His value going forward depends on the lens through which it's viewed. With the Pirates falling out of the NL Wild Card race and McDonald never having thrown 150 innings as a professional, it's a bit of a gamble to count on the 26-year-old continuing to pitch well in September. Longer-term, though, the future is finally starting to brighten and in no way is he a worse option taking back a tag than Westbrook is laying one. Play: Pittsburgh +149 (Risking 2 units).

L.A. Angels +107 over TEXAS

The Angels won’t go away in this race. They’re just two games back in the AL West standings coming into this series and it was all triggered with that ninth inning walk-off win last weekend against these Rangers to avoid getting swept. A loss in that last game would’ve put the Angels seven back and dampened their sprits completely. Instead, they haven’t lost since and that gives us a chance to back a hot team with a great pitcher going. Even on his own team, Dan Haren can get lost in the shadows of Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana. It's easy to forget that Haren, despite being bounced around a bit from team-to-team in his career, easily has one of the most consistent skill sets of the last six years. He's making his claim for his first sub-3.00 ERA season, and xERA shows that it's within reach. Haren has walked even fewer batters than before, and even though his strikeout rate has slipped slightly, his command remains top-notch. His 0.98 WHIP and hit rates, which never stray far from 30%, affirm that his ERA (2.98) numbers are for real. Haren's year-in, year-out production at the elite level is what really stands out. His career high for wins is 16 in 2008. The fact that he's never approached 20 wins could be holding back his reputation and at 13 wins so far in 2011, it won't happen this season. But know that at 30 years old, Haren's only a year-long dash of good fortune away from Cy Young consideration and in 100 games against Derek Holland, Dan Haren should be favored 100 times. Play: L.A. Angels +107 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay –1 -105 over TORONTO

If you don’t have the option of laying a single run you can lay 30 cents and feel pretty good about it, as James Shields is the straight goods and the Jays can’t hit him. In two starts against Toronto this season, Shields is 2-0 with a 0.55 ERA and it’s also worth noting that the Jays’ .713 OPS in August ranks dead last in the AL. The Rays have won 11-of-15 coming in and are 7-4 against Toronto this season but it even gets better than that. The Jays are 21-24 against right-handers this season at home while the Rays are 24-14 against lefties and will face one here in newcomer Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez is going to be a good one. The guy is poised and he’s talented. Alvarez consistently buries pitches low in the strike zone and keeps walks to a minimum. He sometimes overthrows his fastball, which curtails its movement and leaves him hittable. Due to his natural stuff, he has nice upside, but he likely won't be a dominant presence with a high strikeout rate. Furthermore, his 4.02 ERA in the minors says he’ll go through some growing pains at this level and those growing pains are likely to show up here. Play: Tampa Bay –1 –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Hamilton +3½ over WINNIPEG

The Bombers are 6-1 and own the league’s best record and that’s saying something about a team that went 4-14 a year ago and is virtually unchanged. What that tells us is that the Bombers grossly underachieved last year or perhaps they’ve overachieved this season. What we know for sure is that Winnipeg is not much better, if it all than the TiCats. The Blue Bombers defense is superior but the offense is inferior and that makes this assignment tough. The CFL is a QB league and an offensive league and Winnipeg QB Buck Pierce ranks last in the CFL in passing yards. Winnipeg overall is dead last in yards in the air and in this league the defense will only carry you for so long. The Blue Bombers may have been undervalued the first half of the year but as we approach the second half, they’re getting just a little too much credit and this is most certainly a winnable game for the visitor. Play: Hamilton +3½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

NY Yanks/ Baltimore Over 10: Boy what a high scoring series this has been this year as the two teams have combined for 11.2 rpg in the 10 games played so far. Now the yanks have been doing much of the scoring in this series as they have put up 8.2 ppg in the 10 played so far this year. I know that means that the O's have only scored just 3 ppg vs the Yanks this year, but they should be good for a few more tonight. AJ Burnett is clearly the worst pitcher on the Yanks staff and he comes in with a 10.97 ERA (2.39 WHIP) in his last 4 starts, while on the road he has a 6.07 ERA (1.69 WHIP). His last 4 starts have averaged 14.8 rpg, while his road starts this year have put up 10.73 rpg: Tommy Hunter has just 4 starts on the year and he has a 6.08 ERA in those starts, including a 6.74 ERA in his 2 starts, plus in 3 starts vs the Yanks he has a 7.29 ERA. Ok so we have some struggling pitchers on the mound, but what about the Hitting. Not a problem. The Yanks offense is white hot right now as they come in averaging 7.45 rpg in their last 11, including 22 runs last night vs a much tougher staff. The Yanks score 5.23 rpg on the road and they have scored 9.5 rpg in the 4 games played here so far. For the Oriole, they have also been good offensively of late as they have averaged The Orioles come in hitting .290 and scoring 5.2 rpg in their last 11 games and they should be good for at least that much vs AJ tonight. Camden Yards is 6th in the League in OPS (.758) and 6th in scoring (9.62 rpg) and I see no reason why these teams can put at least 11 runs on the board.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Atlanta -147 Over NY METS: The Braves offense is nothing to speak of recently, but once again their pitching has been dominant as they enter with a 1.78 ERA in their last 10 games, to go along with a solid 1.08 WHIP. What a roll Tim Hudson is on as he comes in with a 4-0 Mark and a 1.48 ERA in his last 5 starts, plus he has an 0.87 WHIP in that stretch. Time has also done well vs the Mets in ha career, going 14-8 with a 3.55 ERA overall and in 13 starts in NY (both Stadiums) he is 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA vs them. The Mets come in just 3-7 in their last 10 games and they have hit just .233 and have scored just 3.9 rpg over that stretch. Over that same stretch their pitching has just given up as they have a team ERA 6.10 in their last last 10 games, including a 6.39 ERA form their starters and a 5.58 ERA from the pen. Atlanta is hot once again and have to feel like they can catch the Phils, be even if they don't they know they need to continue to build momentum for the post season and they won't let the struggling Met's stay in their way.

LA Dodgers/ Colorado Over 7.5: The Over is 16-6 in the last 22 meetings, including 10-4 in the last 14 meetings this year. Both of these offenses come in hot as the Rockies have put up 6.4 rpg in their last 10 games and 7.2 rpg in their last 5, while LA has averaged 4.8 rpg in their last 10 and 6.6 rpg in their last 5. LA Has averaged just 3.29 rpg at home overall, but in their last 14 at home they have put up 4.57 rpg. Colorado has put up just 3.49 rpg on the road this year, but in their last 13 away from home they have averaged 3.92 rpg. Esmil Rogers comes in with a 5.32 ERA in 8 starts this year, including a 6.38 ERA in his last 6 starts, plus in 2 career starts vs LA he has a 6.74 ERA, with both games posting double digit runs scored. Ted Lilly comes in with just a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts, but at home this year he has a 4.88 ERA, with an average of 8.08 rpg being scored. The teams play some wild high scoring games vs each other and in the last 8 games played here they have averaged 8.8 rpg. I can see 9+ in this one as it flies Over the total.

2 UNIT PLAY

Arizona/ San Diego Under 9: Joshua Collmenter comes in with a fine 2.18 ERA in his last 3 starts and a solid 3.02 ERA at home. In those last 3 starts overall there has been an average of just 5 rpg being scored. Wade Leblanc has struggled some this year with a 5.03 ERA on the road, but in his last 2 away from home that ERA is just 3.75. The Padres offense has been very good of late, especially on the road, but overall this tea still struggles vs righties with a .227 average overall and they have scored just 3.82 runs per 9 vs them this year. The D-Backs offense has really struggled of late as they have averaged just 2.4 rpg and have hit just .196 in their last 10 games. Overall the Padres have a 2.90 ERA in their last 10 games, while Arizona has an ERA of 3.43 in their last 10 games. I don't see how this makes it to 9 runs.

1 UNIT PLAY

Chicago -132 Over SEATTLE: Seattle is 2-16, since 2009, when their starter went less than 4 innings in his last start. We also note that Seattle is 13-30 in their last 43 overall and 0-6 in their last 6 following a day off, while the Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record.

Derek Wynne

Rams -2 over Chiefs

One of the least talked about teams of the NFL preseason have been the St Louis Rams. Although I do not expect great things from them this season, I do expect them to be the sleeper tonight and take it to the Chiefs. There has been many on and off the field issues with the Chiefs this week...from Thomas Jones laying out one of his own players, despite them denying this, to Todd Haley catching a Lil Wayne concert Monday night and to Cassel simply not performing, the Chiefs are in some trouble. Tonight, they will not be mentally ready or prepared for this game and the Rams will be. After having their backups come in and win the game for them against the Titans, Spagnulo has been running a boot camp all week long. This is a serious preseason game for them, meaning easy money for you and I.

Doug Upstone

Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have looked deplorable in their first two preseason games and will host cross state rival St. Louis in the "Show Me State" showdown. If history holds true the Chiefs could be be the play since home underdogs or pick after two or more consecutive losses against the spread are 24-6 ATS since 1993.

Steve Janus

Atlanta Braves -141

The Braves come into their series against the Mets having won 7 of their last 8 games, while the Mets needed to win their final game in Philadelphia on Wednesday to snap a five game losing streak. I really like the Braves chances of continuing their strong play against New York, as they send out Tim Hudson against Chris Capuano.

Hudson has the fourth-best ERA since the All-Star break and is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks, where he allowed just three hits and struck out seven. Hudson has 1.61 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three starts. The Braves are 4-0 in Hudsons last 4 starts vs. National League East, 5-0 in Hudsons last 5 starts as a favorite, and 5-0 in Hudsons last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

Capuano doesn't bring near the fire power. He is just 9-11 with a 4.71 ERA on the season, and has really struggled of late. Capuano is 0-1 with a 6.62 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in his last three starts. New York is 2-7 in Capuanos last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 1-4 in Capuanos last 5 starts as an underdog, and 0-5 in Capuanos last 5 starts vs. National League East.