Bryan Power
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets
PICK: Atlanta Braves
Although the Braves have only managed a 6-6 split with the division rival Mets this season, they clearly enter Friday's series opener as the superior outfit. They have won 7 of their last 8 and 14 of 18 to all but sew up the NL Wild Card as they lead the Giants by 9.5 games in the chase. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost 11 of 14 to fall way off the pace. They do come off a big upset of the Phillies on Wednesday, winning 7-4 as +170 underdogs. However, this actually works against New York considering the club is a horrible 2-16 when coming off a division win as an underdog of +130 or more, including 0-4 this season! A return home shouldn't do them any good either considering they are 0-10 this year at home coming off back to back road games. The Braves are also 15-9 their last 24 at Citi Field. Atlanta starter Tim Hudson boasts the fourth best ERA in baseball since the All Star Break & is 8-1 with a 1.88 ERA since June 20th. The Mets Chris Capuano has a 6.52 ERA in his last five outings, so the pitchers are heading in opposite directions just like the teams. 5* on Atlanta.
Andrew Lange
Grand Salami Over 135.5
I typically look to play the Grand Salami under when we have a perfect storm of quality pitchers and umps or a short card for getaway day. Today though, I can't help but look towards playing it over. A lot of shaky starting pitchers going to tonight and more than a few games taking place in hitter friendly parks. In the National League, outside a maybe Tim Hudson, there are no elite level pitchers with most of the card comprised of middle-of-the-rotation arms. Over in the American League is where we have the potential to really rack up runs with four games in hitter friendly Baltimore, Toronto, Boston and Texas. And of the two elite level AL pitchers we get them both in ballparks conducive for runs with Dan Haren starting in Texas and James Shields in Toronto. That helps our chances in avoiding 2-1, 3-2 type games. It also looks like our East Coast games won't be affected by Hurricane Irene. Play the Grand Salami OVER.
MLB PREDICTIONS
Rockies / Dodgers Over 7.5
The Rockies and Dodgers meet again after a couple days away from each other, where they both went on to sweep their opponents in three game series’. The Rockies are coming off of a home sweep against the Astros, while the Dodgers swept the Cardinals in St Louis. Los Angeles scored 24 runs in the three game set with the Cardinals. The Rockies are coming off of a 10 game road trip, but did have the day off yesterday. The Rockies send Esmil Rogers to the mound tonight, who is 6-2 on the season with a 6.00 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, and .318 opponents batting average. Although the Rockies are 2-1 in Rogers’ last three starts, he has giving up 26 hits and has a 5.29 ERA over 26 innings of work. The Dodgers have veteran Ted Lilly on the mound, who is 7-13 on the season with a 4.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and .255 opponents batting average. Note that the OVER is 8-1 in the Rockies last 9 games overall, 4-1 in their last 5 vs NL West opponents, and 4-1 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. Also note that the OVER is 3-1-1 in Rogers’ last 5 starts with a low total set at 7-8.5. The OVER is 6-2-1 in the Dodgers last 9 home games, 5-1 in their last 6 Friday games, and 4-0 in their last 4 games following a win. The OVER is also 4-1-1 in the Dodgers last 6 home games with the total set at 7-8.5, and 7-3 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series. The OVER is 6-2 in Lilly’s last 8 starts vs a team with a losing record, and 5-2 in his last 7 home starts with the total set at 7-8.5. Also note that the OVER is 4-1 in Lilly’s last 5 starts vs the Rockies, and head-to-head the OVER is 16-6 in these two teams last 22 meetings. Neither team is struggling at the plate right now, with the Rockies averaging 6.88 runs per game over their last 9, and the Dodgers averaging 6.57 runs per game over their last 7 played. Put that together with two pitchers that struggle at times, and I think we have some good value with this total at 7.5 runs. Let the OVER trend continue between these two teams tonight.
Tom Freese
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
Play on Arizona at 9:40 ET. The D'backs just took three straight games in Washington. Now they return home where they are 20-4 this season as a favorite of -150 to -200. Josh Collmenter gets the start for Arizona tonight and he's been pretty sharp of late (2.18 ERA L3 starts). In six of his 18 starts this season, Collmenter has not allowed a single run. No team has been shut out more this season in MLB than have the Padres. San Diego starter Wade LeBlanc does not scare us with a 5.03 ERA on the road.
John Ryan
Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they host the Florida Marlins in the first game of a four game series set to start at 7:05 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game. Large scale preparation for the potential devastation from Hurricane Irene is underway in all cities along the eastern seaboard, Middle-Atlantic, and New England regions. Certainly last on the priority list are the various schedule changes and cancellations that have occurred. The Phillies will attempt to play a double-header against the Marlins Saturday before Hurricane Irene attacks the New Jersey shoreline and Philadelphia metro areas. The Marlins had their home game against the Reds cancelled yesterday as Irene bared down on the Miami Dad County area. The Phillies have the best record in the majors at 83-45 and have posted a National League best 158 run differential. The Marlins find themselves looking to next season trailing the Phillies by 26 games and sitting in last place in the NL East standings with a 58-72 record and a -79 run differential. The Phillies have the best pitching in baseball and have an offense that has greatly improved since the all-star break and the addition of right fielder Hunter Pence. The Phillies rank 11th with 579 runs scored, 14th with a .254 team batting average, 10th with a .325 on-base-percentage, and 14th with a .400 slugging-percentage. The Phillies pitching staff ranks best in the majors with a 3.08 ERA, second with 85 quality starts, best with a 1.16 WHIP, and fourth allowing a .240 opponent batting average. The Marlins rank 22nd with 508 runs scored, 24th with a .245 team batting average, 15th with a .315 on-base-percentage, and 21st with a .385 slugging-percentage. Their pitching staff is average at-best by major league standards ranking 22nd with a 4.14 ERA, 24th with just 65 quality starts, 18th with a 1.33 WHIP, and 17th allowing a .256 opponent batting average. After a frustrating bout with lower back soreness, Oswalt has returned to his dominating form. In his last start he threw eight scoreless innings walking just one batter while striking out nine batters in a 5-0 win at Washington. Oswalt uses four pitches in combination that make him very difficult to face. He throws fastball just 59% of all pitches and 65% on the first pitch of an at-bat. His curve is his best pitch throwing it 14% of all pitches and 25% of the time with two strikes. With two strikes in an at-bat he will throw fastball 52%, curve 25%, slider 13%, and change-up 11% and is exactly why it is nearly impossible for a batter to anticipate what pitch will be coming in that situation. Hensley spent all of last season in the bullpen and has been forced into the starting rotation due to injuries. He has not done well in the starter mode posting a 6.29 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in seven starts spanning just 34 1/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 7.79 ERA with a 1.932 WHIP spanning just 15 innings of work. Florida is in a series of poor roles to win this game noting that they are 18-42 losing 22.3 units per one unit wagered against the money line facing good fielding teams averaging less than 0.61 errors per game this season. The Phillies are the best fielding team in the majors committing just 56 errors on the season. Moreover, the Marlins are just 3-12 losing 10.8 units per one unit wagered against the money line facing NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs per game in the second half of this season. The Marlins are a free swinging team as evidenced by 980 total strikeouts ranking 7th in the majors. The Phillies are a solid 68-25 making 33.9 units per one unit wagered against the money line when facing teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. When Oswalt starts his team record has been 55-14 making 37.0 units per one unit wagered against the money line facing teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game in the second half of the season since 1997. Take the Philadelphia Phillies.
Jack Clayton
Padres at D-Backs
Pick: Padres
A tough situational spot for the home team, playing at Washington yesterday and now flying 2,500 miles to play the next night here. San Diego is a respectable .500 on the road and comes in with that tough pitching staff. The Padres are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter and the Diamondbacks are 2-5 in Josh Collmenter's last 7 starts during game 1 of a series. Play the Padres!
John Ryan
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Colorado Rockies
5* graded play on the Colorado Rockies as they take on the Los Angeles Dodgers set to start at 10:10 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Rockies will win this game and extend their winning streak to six games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 39-8 for 83% winners and has made 35.2 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on any team after five or more consecutive wins and in a game involving two teams winning between 46 to 49% of their games on the season. Dodgers have not done well against poor control type starters like the Rockies Rogers. The Dodgers are an imperfect 0-6 (-9.3 Units) against the money line facing a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse over the last two seasons. Take the Rockies.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -125
The Tigers have won 6 of their last 7 overall and 11 of their last 13 in the road chalk. I have no problem backing them this evening against a struggling Minnesota club that has dropped 20 of its last 26 games. The Tigers have won 13 of the last 16 meetings in this series, including 6 of the last 7 in Minnesota. Detroit also has the edge on the mound with Porcello. The Tigers are 7-2 in his last 9 starts and 4-1 in his last 5 road starts. They're also 13-3 in his last 16 starts vs. a team with a losing record and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 4-1 in Porcello's last 5 starts vs. the Twins. Take Detroit.
EZWINNERS
Atlanta Braves -155
Tim Hudson has been pitching extremely well for the Atlanta Braves and I look for another strong outing by Hudson in this game against the Mets. In his last twelve starts for the Braves, Tim Hudson has posted an 8-1 record with an ERA of just 1.91 while holding hitters to a .201 batting average. Atlanta has been hot as they have won eight out of their last ten games and I don't think they will have a problem providing Hudson with some run support against the Mets starting pitcher Chris Capuano who has been scuffling. Capuano has allowed at least four earned runs in six out of his last seven starts and is 0-1 with an ERA of 6.62 in his last three. The Mets are also only 2-7 in Capuano's last nine starts at home. The Braves have won the opening game in thirteen out of their last sixteen series and I look for that success to continue. Play on Atlanta.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Angels +104
The recent 7 game lead that the Rangers held over the Angels has evaporated to 2 games. As a result of the Angels recent 6 game winning streak and the Rangers 3 game losing street to BOS. Yet LAA retains the psychological edge as The Hunter vs. The Hunted. The match up on the mound indicates our chances for success are good. Haren has been solid all season with a 2.58 ERA his L6 outings. Holland enters in 3 negative situations. In 68 IP from this mound he has a 5.32 ERA. In 4 starts vs. LAA this year is a 5.40 ERA and in his most recent 4 outings he has posted a 6.41 ERA. We follow the momentum with The Hunter vs. The Hunted
Tony George
KC Chiefs +2.5
Todd Haley as a head coach is 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in NFLX...odds are mounting he finally covers in preseason...He has no urgency to win one it seems and public perception is that as well...wait a minute!!! After Cassel at QB he has Tyler Palko who has played decent and Stanzi, a rookie out of Iowa. This is a contrainin play but KC DOES want this one and I expect the Running game of KC to open up in this one and for KC to jump out early here at home. A In - State war is in tact for some bragging rights, and teams in the preseason of back to back losses in the past 16 games in this scenario are 13-3 ATS the next game. Live home dog here....I will take KC to finally win and cover one in what I feel, and most players for KC and fans feel is a MUST WIN.
Lest we forget this was a playoff team last year that is vastly talented on offense and they have yet to put it together. I just have a hunch they surprise some people tonight. 2 good RB's, a great Tight End, great secondary, better than average QB, good special teamers, and yet they have managed 13 points all preseason and not really showed up in any game. Hmmm St Louis has played decent but are suspect on defense here.
KC is one of the worst bets in all of the NFL in the preseason, especially under Haley, but this line LOOKS TO EASY TO TAKE and lay less than a fall number. . I would wait it out and see if it hits the key number of 3 throughout the day for better value, as I think it will rise late.
Whenever I see a cheap number in what should be a clear cut decsion with a short fav, I like to go the other way and pound against the public who have raised this line a full point or more since opening. Yes the preseason, but none the less a contrarian play.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
KANSAS CITY +1.5 over St Louis: The Governors Cup is on the line in Kansas City tonight and after playing two bad games so far I feel that the Chiefs will look for a good showing. The last time out they didn't play all that bad as they were down to the Ravens just 17-13 with a few minutes left in the game, before (for no reason at all) the Ravens decided they needed to pour it on and make the final score 31-13. Now let's take a lot at what the Rams have done. St Louis has played Tennessee and that team does have some offensive woes, but they still piled up 198 yards on the ground. Then they took on a Colts team that is a total mess without Peyton. The Rams may be 2-0 thus far but to me it's not an impressive 2-0. even though they are 0-2 this Chiefs team still has allowed just 352 ypg, which is just 21 ypg less than the 2-0 Rams have allowed. I know all about Haley's 0-9-1 spread run in the preseason, but with as bad as this team has played thus far I feel that they will look for a good showing in front of the home crowd and remember this team was in the playoffs last year.
2 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Kansas City Over 35: Both defense haven't been that bad this year, but this is for bragging rights in the state of Missouri and I expect these offenses to open it up and put on a good show. Bradford and Cassel are more than capable of having solid showings and I can easily see about 40 points in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
Green Bay/ Indianapolis Under 40.5: Colt can't score without Peyton and I can't see the pack getting 30+ points. Look for around 34 in this one.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 +117
Milwaukee is worth a shot on the run line tonight with Wolf on the bump. That's because the Brewers have won each of his last 5 starts by 2 runs or more. Plus, the Cubs are a lousy 2-16 on the road this season when valued as an underdog of +150 or more. They're losing these contests by an average of 2.5 runs per game. Take the Brew Crew on the run line.
Jack Jones
Chicago White Sox -132
I'm siding with the Chicago White Sox Friday in a game they really need to win. Chicago must make a move in the AL Central soon if they want to catch the Detroit Tigers. I believe that move starts tonight against the lowly Seattle Mariners.
Seattle is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. The Mariners are hitting .235 and scoring 3.5 RPG this season, including .227 and 3.3 at home. The White Sox have been one of the better road teams in the game, sitting at 34-29 away from home.
Jake Peavy, who sports a solid 1.241 WHIP this season, should have his way with this Seattle line-up. Charlie Furbush is just 3-5 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.549 WHIP on the season, including 2-4 with a 6.83 ERA and 1.746 WHIP in six games as a starter.
Peavy is 4-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in six career starts against Seattle. The White Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Chicago is 5-1 in Peavy's last 6 road starts. The Mariners are 0-7 in their last 7 Friday games. Seattle is 0-6 in their last 6 games following an off day. Bet the White Sox Friday.
Black Widow
1* on Tampa Bay Rays -136
We'll back the better team and the better starter in this one as the Tampa Bay Rays knock off the Toronto Blue Jays Friday. Tampa would be sitting pretty with a 70-59 record in any other division in the American League aside from the AL East. The Rays are one of the best road teams in baseball at 35-28, and they are scoring 5.0 runs/game away from home. James Shields is 11-10 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in 26 starts this season, completely rebounding from last year's struggles. Youngster Hernando Alvarez is 0-1 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.440 WHIP in three starts this year for Toronto. Shields is 8-5 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.129 WHIP in 17 lifetime starts versus Toronto. Shields is 2-0 with a 0.55 ERA in two 2011 starts against the Jays, yielding only one earned run in 16 1/3 innings. Take the Rays on the Money Line.