Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -145
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The Rockies have won 4 in a row, and I look for them to make it 5 straight with Jimenez taking the mound tonight. The right-hander is a perfect 8-0 (10-1 on the money line) in his 11 home starts this season. This is the time of year when Kershaw starts to wear down, and he showed signs of that in his last start. In fact, the Dodgers are only 2-9 in Kershaw's August starts over the last 2 seasons. He'll have a tough time navigating a Colorado lineup that is hitting .300 and scoring 5.9 runs/game at home this season. Take the Rockies.
JR O'Donnell
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PHI (+115) vs SDP
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The Phllies limp into California and no one but the red hot Jr. O'ster will back the 70-57 Phllies +115 in this spot, boys way way too cheap to back the M. Latos 13-5 overall & a smooth 2.33 ERA lead the Padres -135 @ home. The Phllies are the sharp side here as the Ryan Howard & Chase Utley show break out the bats in San Diego tonight. The Phllies hurler R. Oswalt has settled down nicely after coming over from the Stros. Oswalt has gone 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA vs these Padres & has posted a smooth 1.29 ERA the last 3 starts.The Public is set up here tonight boys. Phillies steal one tonight!!
SPORTS WAGERS
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Houston +1.41 over NY METS
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The Astros have been pure gold in the second half and there’s no reason whatsoever to stop playing them now. They catch a Mets team that is pretty much dead after just dropping three of its last four to the Marlins and Pirates and falling 7½-games back in the Wild Card race. The Mets are finished because not only are they 7½ out but they would have to leapfrog six teams and that’s not going to happen. So, with little steam left and with Mike Pelfrey on the hill, the Mets are very vulnerable. Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA over his last three starts and that brings us back to April when he dazzled by opening the year 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA. Pelfrey was extremely fortunate then and he’s been extremely fortunate over his last three. Remember, he went on that horrible run for about six straight starts in which he was throwing BP out there and you can expect more of that in his final few starts than the so-called quality starts that he’s thrown recently. First, in those aforementioned last three starts he faced the Rockies and Phillies at home and then he faced the Pirates on the road. All three were struggling miserably when they faced Pelfrey. In the last 31 days he has an unsustainable 80% strand rate and in two of his last four starts he struck out one lousy batter. Pelfrey’s ERA of 1.64 over his last three looks very sweet on paper but his xERA over that span was 4.44 and that’s significant. Pelfrey’s only saving grace is a decent GB rate but as the chalk, he’s way too risky and you can double that against a hot Astro team. Nelson Figueroa gets a crack at the team he pitched for in ’08 and ’09 for the second time in three starts so you know he’ll be juiced up for that. He’s been solid in two starts since being inserted into the Astro rotation and is coming off a six-inning, four hit gem against the Marlins in which he walked one and whiffed seven. In August, Figueroa has appeared in six games, two as a starter, covering 16.2 innings and over that span he’s walked four, struck out 17 and had an ERA of 2.70. He’s shown a late career surge and while he, too, is somewhat risky, he’s not the one laying a price. Stros can’t wait to get back on the field. Play: Houston +1.41 (Risking 2 units).
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Oakland +1.25 over TEXAS (1st 5 innings)
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Tommy Hunter is 10-2 with a 3.68 ERA and overall the Rangers are 12-3 in his starts. That’s very nice but Tommy Hunter has been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league and his charmed life has some serious corrections forthcoming. Any optimism you gain from his surface stats should be tempered by his high xERAs. Fly-ball prone soft-tossers are a disaster waiting to happen in this park and Hunter fits the bill. Hunter's xERA is still a full two runs higher than his actual ERA and you can bet that will catch up to him, it always does. In his last start vs the O’s, Hunter threw eight innings and didn’t strike out a single batter nor did he walk a batter, which means every player put the ball in play and every ball was hit right at someone. In four starts prior to that one, Hunter’s ERA was 9.39 but that stretch is masked by some surface stats, which includes a 6-0 record at home. Fact is, Hunter is by far the second best pitcher in this game and hitching your wagon to him is a big time risk when you’re laying juice. The Rangers and A’s have split 12 games this season and left-handers are a problem for TEX bats -- the Rangers are hitting a league-average .267/.330/.339 against southpaws; they are 21-18 against lefty starters and 51-36 against righties. By contrast, Brett Anderson has an eye-opening GB rate of 54% and in the last month that rate has been 57%. He has a 2.86 ERA which is slightly lower than his xERA of 3.12, confirming he’s no fluke. Anderson is fresh with just 11 starts this year after a rookie season that was nothing short of impressive. Solid skills in the first half reached elite levels in 2H, as he was serving up ground ball after ground ball and it hasn’t stopped this year. Anderson is worthy of an investment and because this play is based solely on the starters, the wager is that Anderson is much better than that imposter Hunter in the game’s first five frames. Play: Oakland +1.25 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).
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B.C. LIONS +6 over Calgary
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Both teams are coming off a bye week and that most certainly works in the Lions favor because Calgary was on a roll while the Lions needed to regroup. B.C’s entire season could rest on this game, as they sit at a dismal 1-6. Casey Printers will be welcomed back after being on the rack for 40 days and if nothing else, it gives the team a much-needed psychological boost. Reports out of the Leo’s practice is that Printers looked rejuvenated, ready and his practice passes were on the money, whether throwing long or short, on rollouts or from pocket. Remember, under different circumstances the Stamps came in here just two games ago and squeaked out a five-point win. Things could be more difficult here after both the bye week and the return of Printers. The Lions still have an ample defense that should get some relief here because they likely won’t be on the field as much with Printers running the offense. The Stamps are cruising with a 6-1 record and complacency could set in here, especially when you consider that the traditional Labour-Day clash with the Eskies is on deck. This is a vulnerable spot for the visitor and the host figures to stay close throughout and it sure would shock us to see them pull the upset. Play: B.C.+6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Doug Upstone
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
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The Arizona Diamondbacks ran into one rugged outfit in their division and lost series to San Diego. Next up is facing another club fighting for the postseason and as expected, the D-Backs are significant underdogs.
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Barry Enright is the Snakes starter and he has been quite good with 4-2 record and 2.73 ERA. He doesn’t overpower hitters, as they are mostly pounding the ball into the ground. He’ll be matched against a struggling Tim Lincecum, who has a bloated ERA of 10.38 in his last three starts. Lincecum has lost about four MPH on his fastball this season, which makes his off-speed breaking pitches less effective and he’s been wilder, which has hitters sitting more on his less effective heat.
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Lincecum is still 5-1 with 2.35 ERA vs. Arizona and underdogs like the D-Backs with a money line of +125 to +175, whose starting pitcher has ERA is 3.00 or better on the season, against opponent with a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the year, are 11-49 the last 13 seasons, including 2-13 since 2008.
Larry Ness
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Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
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The Phillies are the two-time defending NL champs (have won three straight NL East titles) and went on a eight-game winning streak shortly after the All Star break (July 22-29). After taking the first two games from San Francisco of a three-game series on August 17 and 18, the Phils had won 20 of their last 25 games and seems poised to 'run down' the Braves. However, the Phillies split their next four games and then opened this week by getting swept at home in a four-game series by the Astros. Fortunately for Philly fans, the Braves lost all three this week in Colorado, so the Phillies remain just three games behind the Braves in the division plus the team is in a virtual three-way deadlock with the Giants and Cards for the wild card spot. Still, the Phillies need to start winning and a visit to Petco Park to face the Padres is not the easiest way to get a winning streak going. San Diego owns the NL's best record at 76-50 and with a plus-$2,996 moneyline mark, is more than $1,200 better than the Reds ($1,773), who own MLB's second-best moneyline record. San Diego owns MLB's lowest team ERA (3.31), as well as its best bullpen ERA 2.81(), which makes for a pretty 'deadly' combo. Mat Latos could be MLB's best pitcher in 2010. He sure has been its best pitcher since his first four games of 2010, when he posted a 5.47 ERA. He's made 18 starts since then, allowing more than two ERs just ONCE (allowed three, in a 3-2 loss to these Phillies). He's 12-3 (team is 14-4) in those 18 starts, posting a 1.62 ERA. Can any pitcher match that? Roy Oswalt goes for Philly and he's been among MLB's best pitchers since going 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA as rookie with the Astros back in 2001. He struggled this year with Houston (6-12, despite a 3.42 ERA in 20 starts / team was 7-13) but after a poor first outing for the Phillies (6 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs), he's gone 3-0 (team is 4-0) in his last four outings, posting a 1.65 ERA. Oswalt is also 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 15 career starts vs the Padres (Astros were 12-3) but I want no part of going against Latos and the Padres in this park, especially with those Philly bats going 'cold' again. Take San Diego.
Ben Burns
Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
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I won with the Tigers the last time that Verlander pitched against the Jays. That 7/22 game was at Detroit though. That's significant, as both Verlander and the Tigers have been much better at home. Even with a victory yesterday, the Tigers are still a dismal 21-39 on the road. Verlander is 5-5 (Tigers are 6-7) with a 4.76 on the road. In his only start at Toronto, Verlander was rocked for eight runs in just 3 2/3 innings. The Jays won 12-5.
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Marcum checks in with a 5-3 home record to go along with a solid 3.18 ERA and 1.203 WHIP. In 70 2/3 innings here he has 62 K's with just 22 walks.
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The Jays are a profitable 41-23 (+15.4) the last 64 times that they played at home with a line in the +100 to -125 range. Given Marcum's success here, they've got a solid chance at improving on those stats here. Consider Toronto
Matt Fargo
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Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Minnesota Twins
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The Twins salvaged the series finale in Texas on Thursday as they defeated the Rangers 6-4. In the four-game series, Minnesota allowed four runs in each contest which normally would mean a split at the worst but the offense picked the wrong time to shut down. Nonetheless, the Twins still have a 3.5-game lead over the White Sox in the American League Central and they get a chance to get more back starting tonight. The Mariners are coming off a poor roadtrip as they went 6-6 which isn’t bad but the finish of 1-4 was not the way they wanted it to end. It has been a struggle all season for Seattle as it sits 27 games under .500 and while the play at home has been better, it still has a losing record at Safeco Field so a return home does give it an edge here. The Mariners are hitting .236 on the season including .238 at home, both of which are the worst in baseball. While the Seattle pitching has been better, the advantage is on the other side. It is safe to say Scott Baker is having a tough season. He has a 4.63 ERA in 25 starts but he has been pitching a lot better over the last month as he has a 3.03 ERA covering his last six outings. The most important thing is that the Twins are winning as they have won 14 of those 25 starts and that includes win in all six of those most recent starts. Baker's results have been up and down this year, but outings like his last demonstrate what he's capable of providing when he's at his best. Jason Vargas was incredible to start the season as he had a 2.80 ERA through June and while July and August haven’t been horrible, they have not been great. He has a 4.53 ERA in nine starts over the two months which is a significant decrease in his production. Seattle has been solid in his home starts but it is negated by playing a good team as the Mariners are 2-5 in his last seven starts against teams with a winning record. Also, the Mariners are 3-12 in Vargas’ last 15 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game while the Twins are 23-10 in Baker’s last 33 starts against American League teams that have a batting average of .265 or worse. 3* Minnesota Twins
Info Plays
3* on Washington Nationals +145
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Reasons the Nats win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams (WASHINGTON) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings. This is a 121-59 ML System hitting 67.2% over the last 5 seasons gaining +67.8 units.
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2.) St. Louis is just finding ways to lose right now. They have lost three straight, including a 10-11 loss last night in extra innings in which they blew a 10-8 lead in the ninth. The Cards bullpen is in shambles right now. Bet Washington at home.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Angels -138
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The Angels were swept in Baltimore earlier this month, and Trevor Bell was on the mound in one of those contests. That series loss will provide plenty of motivation for the Halos and their right-hander as he makes his first home start tonight. The Orioles have won Brad Bergesen's last 4 starts, but they find themselves in a tough spot tonight. They were blown out yesterday by the White Sox, and then had to make the lengthy trip to LA. Meanwhile, the Angels have been at home waiting, and they are coming off an impressive 12-3 win over Tampa Bay. The O's are just 18-45 on the road this season and 3-14 in Bergesen's last 17 road starts. They are also just 8-21 in their last 29 road meetings with the Angels. In addition, the Halos are 12-1 over the last 3 seasons after a game where they had 17 or more hits, winning in this situation by an average score of 7.2 to 3.5. Take the Angels.
Hollywood Sports
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Phillies at Padres
Prediction: Under
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Take the Under in the game between the Phillies and the Padres on Friday. While Roy Oswalt is 9-13 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP for the year, he has been better on the road this season given his 2.95 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and .218 opponent's batting average. Over his last three starts, Oswalt sports a stellar 1.29 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. And in his 105 2/3 innings of career work against the Padres, Oswalt possesses a 2.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .225 opponent's batting average. He faces Mat Latos who is 13-5 with a 2.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. And at home in spacious PETCO Park, Latos' ERA drops to 2.19. While the number is very low at 6.5, don't worry to much about that as four of Latos' last five starts have gone Under the Total when listed at 6.5 or lower.
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Additionally, both of these pitchers share a very promising deeper sabermetric statistic that bodes well for their respective futures: batting average for line-drives put into play (LD BABIP). Line-drives typically are the result of the batter winning the "hitter-versus-pitcher" battle since the typical goal for a batter is to produce line-drive contact with the baseball. Hitters also have the most control in placing their line-drives (as opposed to groundballs or flyballs) in areas where there is open space for base hits. The MLB average for line-drives that go for base hits is typically in the .715-.720 range. Oswalt and Latos have .638 and .667 LD BABIPs respectively which indicates that batters are having a difficult time dominating at-bats with these hurlers. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like LD BABIP, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective regarding evaluating this pitcher's future.
Lenny Del Genio
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Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays
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Despite a 73-55 record, which is currently tied for 3rd best in the American League, the Red Sox find themselves in 3rd place in the division and 5.5 games off the pace for the Wild Card. So that makes this weekend series at Tropicana Field a critical one for the club, only problem is that get an unfavorable pitching matchup in tonight's series opener. They must deal with Rays phenom David Price and that is not good considering a 9-11 road record this season vs. lefties. Price owns a 9-0 team start record this season in the favorite role and priced between -125 and -175. Even better is the fact that Tampa Bay is 12-1 following a loss by six runs or more. They've had a day to recover from Wednesday afternoon's dud of an effort in the finale of a three-game set vs. the Angels (L 12-3). Let's also not forget that the Rays took the first two games of that series. Boston starts Jon Lester in this matchup and he's been shaky at best of late, including a real dog effort in his last time to the bump as he allowed eight runs in just two innings of work against Toronto. The Rays have excelled against lefties this year, including a 15-5 record here at home. This weekend could prove to be a fatal blow to Boston's fleeting playoff hopes. Take Tampa Bay.
Teddy Covers
Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
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Andy Reid has not been a ‘bet on’ coach in the preseason over the years, concerned more with player development than with winning August games. But Reid has one personal caveat that has been worth betting on a yearly basis – he wants his Eagles to look good winning the regular season walk-through here in Week 3.
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The numbers don’t lie. Reid has guided the Eagles to SU victories in Week 3 of the preseason every year since 2003, reeling off seven consecutive wins in this particular role. It’s surely worth noting that their 2002 Week 3 walkthrough loss to New England was a spread covering defeat; a one point loss. Clearly, Andy Reid cares about winning at least one preseason game every year.
The Philadelphia Eagles first string offense has yet to score a touchdown this preseason. They’re expected to sit next week in the preseason finale, ramping up the pressure for a good performance tonight. Wide receiver DeSean Jackson: “We feel like we have a task to go out there and put some points on the scoreboard. As the #1 offense, that’s what’s expected out of us.”
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Quarterback Kevin Kolb chimed in: “We still want to score touchdowns. The opportunities have been there for us, but we’ve been beating ourselves. We just have to tighten things up a little bit.” With Philly’s starters expected to play as much as three full quarters tonight, they’ll have ample opportunity to ‘tighten things up’ and put some points on the board.
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Todd Haley has been the Chiefs head coach for six previous preseason games, dating back to last year. Kansas City is 0-6 SU in those ballgames. While Haley has preached ‘developing a winning attitude’ to his squad, those results simply haven’t showed up on the scoreboard, indicating a prevailing attitude of nonchalance towards these preseason contests. That puts us squarely on the Eagles side tonight. 2* Take Philadelphia.
Nite Owl Sports
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Chargers @ Saints
Pick: Over 42.5
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It is pretty well known that NFL teams consider their week 3 game of NFL-X as their “dress rehearsal” for the opening of the regular season, not wanting to risk injury to any key players in week 4, just a week before the ‘real season” starts. So we expect both first team QBs (former teammates Brees for NO and Rivers for SD) and their offenses to play for most if not all of the first half, and possibly into the 3Q. And with 51 and 58 total points having been scored in NO’s first two NFL-X games TY, including 38 LW scored by Saints at home vs Houston, we’re expecting another productive outing here by the NO offense, again at home in the Dome. And even after Drew Brees is lifted, possibly not until sometime in the 3Q, note that 2Y QB Chase Daniel was impressive in 3Qs of play LW, going 15-21 for 182 YP, with 3 TDPs and no INTs in that blowout victory over Houston.
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And while SD has not been overly impressive on offense so far TY, especially in LW’s 16-14 home loss to Dallas, note that Chargers are 4-2 Over L3Y away in NFL-X, plus 3-1 Over in week 3 L4Y in NFL-X, averaging 50 total ppg in those four week 3 “dress rehearsal” games.
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So we’ll take Over 42.5 for 3 units, and advise getting down ASAP on the Over (this pick originally posted early, on Wed PM, to take advantage of favorable totals line, something we do all season long to get our subscribers the best lines we can for our picks), as by Wed, the totals line on this game had already climbed two points from OL of 40.5 and appeared likely to keep moving in that direction, as has actually been the case (with line at 43.5 Thurs PM). And with a line of 43.5, we would make it two units, and just one at 44, passing at anything > 44.
Jack Jones
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Minnesota Twins
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This is a very solid price to back the Minnesota Twins at Friday as they take on the lowly Seattle Mariners. I could certainly see Seattle having a letdown here as they return home from their longest road trip of the season, a 12-game trip that saw them face the Yankees and Red Sox. Plus, Seattle has little to play for as we near the end of the season with the Mariners sitting at 50-77. The motivational edge certainly goes to Minnesota, who is 73-55 this season and sitting 3.5 games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. After losing 3 of 4 to Texas last series, I could certainly see them looking to sweep the Mariners here.
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The Twins are a perfect 6-0 in Scott Baker's last 6 starts, and the righty is 4-0 with a 4.08 ERA during that span. He has to be licking his chops at an opportunity to face a Seattle team that ranks last in the majors with just 418 runs scored. Baker is 2-0 with a 2.19 ERA in his last 2 starts vs. Seattle. Jason Vargas has been a solid starter for the Mariners this season, but he was rocked for 7 earned runs in 6.1 innings in his last outing, his worst start of the year. Baker is 19-5 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Minnesota is 11-2 in Baker's last 13 starts as a road favorite. Bet Minnesota Friday.
John Ryan
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Twins vs. Mariners
Play: Over 7
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5* graded play OVER Minnesota/Seattle as they set to play at 10:10 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that eight or ore runs will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 52-19 OVER for 73% winners since 1997. Play over with all teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 and is a terrible offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs per game and facing a decent starting pitcher sporting an ERA=4.20 to 4.70 and with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. 57% of these games also went over the posted total by a minimum of one run. The system has also produced a 9-3 winning mark this season. Twins are a solid 24-10 OVER (+13.8 Units) in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game in the second half of the season spanning the last 2 seasons. Baker is 11-2 OVER (+9.0 Units) after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER.