Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 29

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAF

BYU at Connecticut
The Cougars head to Connecticut tonight to open their season against the Huskies and come into the contest with a 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games in August. BYU is the pick (-16 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cougars favored by 19 1/2. Dunkel Pick: BYU (-16 1/2)

Game 145-146: BYU at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 99.185; Connecticut 79.643
Dunkel Line: BYU by 19 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: BYU by 16 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-16 1/2); Under

Game 147-148: Bowling Green at Western Kentucky (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 93.821; Western Kentucky 88.864
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 5; 62
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 8; 56
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (+8); Over

Game 149-150: Colorado State vs. Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 93.271; Colorado 79.881
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 13 1/2; 69
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3; 65
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+3); Over

Game 151-152: TX-San Antonio at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 82.286; Houston 96.308
Dunkel Line: Houston by 14; 61
Vegas Line: Houston by 11; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-11); Over

Game 153-154: UNLV at Arizona (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 74.926; Arizona 101.600
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 26 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Arizona by 23 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-23 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 319-320: Villanova at Syracuse (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 72.235; Syracuse 92.956
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 20 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 321-322: Jacksonville State at Michigan State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 78.628; Michigan State 116.502
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 38; 65
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

CFL

Ottawa at Montreal
The REDBLACKS head to Montreal on Friday to face an Alouettes team that is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games in Week 10 of the season. Ottawa is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Montreal favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+6 1/2)

Game 281-282: Ottawa at Montreal (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 103.237; Montreal 106.872
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 3 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Montreal by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+6 1/2); Under

DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Minnesota at Phoenix
The Mercury open up the Western Conference finals on Friday against a Minnesota team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on 3 or more days rest. Phoenix is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2)

Game 601-602: Minnesota at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.199; Phoenix 122.707
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 156
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 161
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2); Under

Bryan Leonard

Bowling Green -7.5

New Head Coach Dino Babers from Eastern Illinois is looking to run 100 plays or more per game. He was the Wide Receivers coach at Baylor Dave Clawson moved on to Wake Forest The offense is loaded with an experienced quarterback in Matt Johnson The running game returns everyone from last season that averaged 4.7 ypc The Falcons were 6-0 ATS the past two seasons as road favorites Bowling Green does have 32 point revenge with Indiana coming up in two weeks, but only VMI on deck next week

The Hilltoppers have posted a winning record in three straight years Jeff Brohm takes over for Bobby Petrino who returned to Louisville He was the offensive coordinator last year So this is the third head coach in three years Western Kentucky is moving from the Sun Belt to Conference USA Next week the Hilltoppers travel to Illinois Despite returning eight offensive starters the team will be without 1700 yard rusher Antonio Andrews He led the nation in allpurpose yards the past two seasons On defense 6 of the back 7 need replaced

Brandon Shively

BYU vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 51

I like this game Friday Night to stay UNDER the posted Total of 50.5 . UConn brings in a new HC by the name of Bob Diaco. Diaco was the defensive coordinator at Notre Dame that led the Irish's defense in 2012 when they only allowed 13 ppg. He inherits a defense that gave up 30 ppg in 2013 and will be looking to tighten the ship.

UConn returns 6 starters on defense and I am expecting for the secondary to be improved and to be able to contain BYU in this game tonight. Diaco held BYU to 14 ppg in his last two games vs. them when he was the DC for Notre Dame. Obviously, he has a good grasp on this BYU rushing attack and understands how to slow them down. Diaco has had all summer to get his guys prepared for this game and I look for the Huskies to hold BYU to 27-30 points on Friday night. UCONN will be switching to a 3-4 defense and they have a big defensive line (smallest guy 290 lb.), so they should be able to contain the run.

The Uconn offense only put up 20.6 ppg in 2013 and I am not looking for much improvement as the offensive line only returns 33 starts while losing their top player and the 2.6 yards they gained on the ground last year, looks to remain about the same. I look for the BYU defense to get after the QB and force some turnovers and stalled drives.

It should be noted that starting BYU RB Jamaal Williams is suspended for this game and he was the #1 running back for BYU in 2013. Also, there are two wide receivers that are not expected to play tonight, Devon Blackman and Nick Kurtz. BYU lost their Top 2 WR's from 2013 and were expecting both of these guys to make an impact. Blackmon is an Oregon transfer while Kurtz is a JC transfer with a big 6'6" frame. Needless to say, the BYU receiving core is now inexperienced and lacks talent. I also feel it will take time for QB Taysom Hill to get in sync with these new receivers and in turn we should see some miscommunication and bad timing on passing routes.

Both teams have new kickers coming into this season, and I will count on a couple missed field goals in this game that can also help keep this game UNDER the Total. There are also a couple key trends to note in this game as the UNDER is 4-0 in BYU's last 4 road games dating back to last season, and the UNDE is 14-2-1 in their last 17 Friday games. The UNDER went 4-1 in UConn's last 5 home games to conclude the season and I see this game with a final score in the 30-13 range for an EASY UNDER.

Brandon Shively's Featured Package

DAVE COKIN

COLORADO STATE VS COLORADO
PLAY: COLORADO STATE +3

Right at the outset, I’ll say that I mostly agree with the general consensus on the state of these rivals. Colorado State is likely down some from last season, Colorado appears to be improved. But I also believe the the team supposedly going down is superior to the one that might be going up.

Colorado State has some obvious holes to fill. Most of what turned out to be a studly offensive line has moved on, and so has the amazing Kapri Bibbs, who was one remarkable college running back last season. It’s tough to envision the Rams being anything close to as prolific on offense as they were toward the end of last season. But I don’t see this team simply falling apart at the seams.

Colorado is much more experienced this season, and the Buffs are almost sure to be more competitive this time around. Mike MacIntyre did a great job taking San Jose State from a total stiff to a decent level, and I like his chances of accomplishing the same thing here. However, this is still very much a work in progress entity, and I don’t see Colorado sniffing .500 or a bowl for at least another year.

I don’t want to turn this piece into “War and Peace” so I’ll condense this to the numbers. Colorado defeated Colorado State handily to start the 2013 campaign. But by the end of the season, I had CSU double digits better than CU on my power rankings. I’ve definitely adjusted the 2014 Rams down from where they were at the conclusion of the ’13 season, while I’ve moved the Buffaloes up a couple of ticks. But I believe this line reflects too much of an adjustment. My ratings for the new season still have Colorado State between 3-4 points better than their rivals.

My pre-season rankings are going to change as actual data is compiled. So it’s conceivable that one month from now, Colorado could be the higher power ranked entry. But I’ve done well enough with opening week plays over the years to have confidence in what I’ve put together and in this case, I’ve got an opportunity to grab a FG with a team I have as a slight favorite. That makes for a playable scenario, and I’m therefore going ahead and taking the available points with Colorado State.

Kyle Hunter

Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Bowling Green -7

Dino Babers is the new head coach at Bowling Green, and I expect a lot out of this Bowling Green team under Babers. He helped Art Briles institute the high-octane offense at Baylor, and we've seen the kind of success Baylor has had with that. Bowling Green has the players to run this offense. Matt Johnson is the best quarterback in the MAC. The Falcons have a solid offensive line, good depth at running back, and a solid group of receivers. Don't forget that Bowling Green also had the best defense in the MAC last year. The offense will be far more dangerous this season. Western Kentucky lost their star running back and the majority of their defense from last year. The Hilltoppers will play hard and they might hang around early, but I don't think they can keep this one in single digits. Lay the points with Bowling Green.

Kyle Hunter's Featured Package

Teddy Covers

Arizona -24

Arizona came to Las Vegas and thoroughly whipped the Rebels last year, a 58-13 blowout that was every bit as lopsided on the field as the final score would suggest. ‘Zona held an enormous team speed advantage to go along with their size edge, creating one big play TD after the next.

UNLV head coach Bobby Hauck following the game in which UNLV trailed by 39 at halftime: “Congratulations to Arizona for coming in and beating the hell out of us. We’ve got to flush this game and move on to the next one because there are no positives.” The loss actually sparked the UNLV season, a season that they turned around immediately following that defeat with four wins in their next four games, culminating in the Rebels first bowl bid since 2000.

The Rebels have not fared well as big road underdogs against power conference foes in early season action throughout the Hauck era. They lost by 28 at Minnesota in their season opener last year; by 34 at Wisconsin and by 52 at Washington State back in 2011, by 28 at Utah and by 39 at West Virginia in 2010. Their lone spread cover in that grouping came in truly ‘bad beat’ fashion for anyone who had Wisconsin -35.

So the two questions to ask here are relatively simple. First, has UNLV turned the corner as a program following last year’s transformative season, or are the Rebels poised to sink right back into bottom feeder territory? And second, will Arizona’s size and speed edges be equally problematic for the Rebels in 2014, the same way they were in 2013?

Bobby Hauck isn’t hanging his hat on a strong performance here: “We think we’re going to have a good season. But going to Tucson and winning’s going to be a tall order.” Always familiar with the pointspread, Hauck said that when you’re a big underdog the main focus is just getting to the fourth quarter. If it’s a close game at that point, anything can happen. “There are ways of attempting to do that.” In other words, don’t expect UNLV to push the pace at any point on Friday.

UNLV just named junior college transfer and Arizona native Blake Decker as their new starting quarterback, while Arizona just named freshman Anu Soloman who won four state titles in high school in Las Vegas as their starter.

Wildcats head coach Rich Rodriguez, talking about the prolonged battle between four candidates: “I thought (Soloman) deserves the right to start the first game. I don’t know who the next guy is, but I told all four of the guys to be ready to play because all four could play. But at the same time, I’m confident that Anu will play well and he’ll be the starter. As long as he plays well, we’ll win.”

Decker, talking about his role in the UNLV offense: “The quarterback doesn’t need to be that much of a playmaker in this offense. He just needs to distribute the ball and get it out to the superstars that we have.”

UNLV suffered major offseason losses on their front seven defensively, leaving an inexperienced defensive line and linebacking corps. While Arizona graduated a ton of skill position talent, I don’t expect the Wildcats to struggle putting points on the board, even with a freshman starter. And I’m not willing to back Decker as a JUCO transfer making his first major college start on the road, given UNLV’s track record in this role.

EZWINNERS

Texas San Antonio +10

UTSA will be seeking revenge for a misleading 31 point home loss to these Cougars last season in a game in which the Roadrunners actually outgained UH on the stat sheet. Larry Coker's team is loaded with experience as the Roadrunners return 19 starters from last years team that won seven games and ended the season hot on a five game winning streak. The Cougars have a lot of experience as well, but they don't have good numbers against the spread in home openers and they might not be fully focused on this non conference opponent that they creamed on the road last season. The Cougars are playing their first game in their brand new state of the art stadium and may be busy taking in the atmosphere while UTSA will be focused on pulling the upset. This is also a lot of points to be laying with a Houston defense that has not shown that they can stop anyone. In the two years under head coach Tony Levine the Cougars have allowed almost 30 points and 450 yards of offense per game.

Big Jay Dotson

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: New York Yankees +104

This game features the 69-63 Yankees versus the 67-66 Blue Jays. Those following me this week know that I've been backing the Yankees lately and it's the right play to back them again. Chris Capuano 1-3 4.37 ERA gets the start for the Yankees, while Mark Buehrle 11-8 3.41 ERA gets the start for the Blue Jays. Buehrle has had a good season, but he's struggled post all star with an ERA over six not too mention he's carrying an ERA over six verus the yanks this season. Capuano hasn't set the world on fire as a Yankee, but he is due for a win.

Marc Lawrence

Nationals at Mariners
Pick: Under

Edges - Nationals: Zimmerman 5-0 with 2.09 ERA last five team starts. Hernandez 1.96 ERA home and 1.93 AERS last seven overall starts. With Zimmerman in strong KW form with 50 strikeouts and 5 walks his last nine starts, and Hernandez the same with 41 strikeouts and 6 walks his last six efforts, we recommend a 1-unit play on the UNDER.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dan Haren (11-10) is a veteran who throws strikes, a fly ball pitcher who is perfect for a huge park like Petco. Haren (11-10) picked up the win as he pitched seven fantastic innings Friday against the Mets, allowing only one run on three hits while striking out six hitters and walking none. Since hitting a rough patch of awful starts, Haren has performed well of late with three wins and three quality starts over his last four games. The Dodgers are 6-1 in their last 7 road games, 40-15 on the road against a team with a losing record. They face the worst offense in baseball in San Diego, a team that is 0-5 following an off day. The Padres are 3-8 in Andrew Cashners last 11 starts vs. the National League West and no stopped, 3-9 in his last 12 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Dodgers are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings, including 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in San Diego.

Sam Martin

Tex San Antonio at Houston Cougars
Prediction: Tex San Antonio

Larry Coker's Texas San -Antonio team returns a whopping ten starters on each side of the ball, and we love that type of experience in an opening game for a double-digit road underdog. No hesitation taking the points with UTSA on Friday night and as an added bonus (to big underdogs, anyway), we find ourselves backing a solid, experienced team that features a rush-heavy offense, which tends to slow the game down and eat the clock away.

This is similar to when we back triple-option teams as big underdogs, as the favorite simply doesn't have enough time or possessions to run up the score. Texas San Antonio went 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread on the road last year. They also were a perfect 6-0 Under the total in those games - lending more credence to our theory about running out the clock. Houston's defense is nothing special and is susceptible to a rushing offense that had a very nice 4.9 ypc average last season. Not enough time for Houston to pull away!

Rob Vinciletti

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -115

The Jays offer solid value here as they opened as a favorite but are now basically a pick. Toronto is the the number 2 scoring team in the league at home and has a nice pitching advantage here tonight They start M. Buehrle and they have won 9 of his 13 home starts, including 8 of the last 11. In his last home starts made in August Buehrle has a 6-1 record. He has won his last 3 starts overall. He will take on a Yankee team that other than 1 big game vs D. Price have struggled to be consistent at the plate. The Yankees have Chris Capuano going and he has 5.84 road era. In his lone start here he lasted just 4 innings allowing 5 runs and should once again struggle with Toronto's Power right handed batters. Capuano has lost 7 of his last 10 Road starts in August. Look for Toronto to take the opener.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Red Dog Sports

Connecticut +16½

Connecticut is 19-4 ATS as a home underdog in their last 23. BYU has to travel cross country for this east coast game. The Cougars lost at Virginia 19-16 to open last year. BYU has a tough QB in Taysom Hill but will be without RB Jamaal Williams. UConn's coach was with Notre Dame in recent years and will be familiar with the BYU players and system. All we need is for the home team to stay within 14 points.