Art Aronson
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers +111
The visiting Dodgers will send Dan Haren (11-10, 4.44 ERA) to the mound; Haren is looking for his fourth win in five starts and has begun to turn things around after a few rough outings. Haren began the month by losing a fifth straight start, but he's since gone 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA while posting a very respectable .200 opponents' batting average in the process (and note that Haren is 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two outings at Petco Park this season). The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (2-6, 2.43 ERA) who is making his second start since a lengthy DL stint. The right-hander surrendered two runs and seven hits in five innings and didn't get a decision in Saturday's 5-2 loss in Arizona. Cashner has been very good in four career starts against the Dodgers, but I think runs into a buzzsaw today, LA is the better team and is coming in hot having won six of eight; also note that LA has won four of the last six games between these teams. I respect the Padres strong home record (32-26) but I think the Dodgers road mark is even more impressive at 42-26. Los Angeles has won the last six series with San Diego and the rotation has been exceptional during that stretch with a 1.64 ERA. Consider taking the Dodgers as a slight dog on the road.
Oliver Alonso
UNLV vs. Arizona
Play: UNLV +23½
The UNLV Rebels were thoroughly embarrassed by the Arizona Wildcats, 58-13, in their home opener a year ago and hope to return the favor by pulling off an upset when they visit Tucson on Friday Night.
The UNLV football program had its postseason ban lifted in late June, when the NCAA overturned its original decision and accepted the school’s Academic Progress Rate (APR) score. The Rebels played surprisingly well after losing their first two games both straight-up and against the spread in 2013, going 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS the rest of the way en route to their first bowl appearance in 13 years.
Arizona will need to replace their big back, Ka'Deem Carey, as he has left to go play NFL ball. Carey put together almost 1,900 yards on the ground and will not be easily replaced. Just as concerning from Coach Rich Rodriguez is finding replacement under center for QB BJ Denker. Silver lining for Arizona fans is Coach Rodriguez is like a QB whisperer as he turns out elite level QB's nearly every season.
The Rebels might not get the revenge from last year's 58-13 at UNLV but do think Arizona will find it much more difficult to pull off win. Coach Rich Rodriguez might be the QB whisperer but we still expect Arizona offense to sputter in opening game. UNLV offense gives Arizona a scare before Arizona pulls off late win.
Hollywood Sports
Colorado St. at Colorado
Prediction: Colorado
Despite being just 4-8 last season (with two of those wins against FCS opponents), the Buffaloes rocked the Rams last year by a 41-27 margin while outgaining them by a 509-295 yard margin. Colorado returns sixteen starters from that group while returning 53 lettermen. This is a team that should see a big improvement in year two of head coach Mike MacIntyre's regime and he is quite familiar with Colorado State given his four years coaching against them at San Jose State. The Rams enjoyed a nice 8-6 season last year which included winning their bowl game -- but they return only twelve starters from that team. Colorado State has lost 17 of the last 23 meetings between these two teams and considering that the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by an average of two touchdowns, take Colorado minus the points.
Jimmy Boyd
UConn Huskies +16
Connecticut is showing great value as a 16-point underdog at home against BYU. The Huskies are clearly getting no respect after going 3-9 last year, while BYU is being overvalued after they took advantage of a soft schedule to go 8-5.
A lot of times a team transitioning to a new head coach isn't a good thing, but that's not the case with Connecticut. The Huskies needed new life and a new direction and I fully expect former Notre Dame defensive coordinator Bob Diaco to bring that to this team.
One of the key things to note about Diaco and this matchup is that he's familiar with BYU's offensive schemes and has shown the ability to keep the Cougars in check. In the two games where he was calling the shots on defense, Diaco helped Notre Dame hold BYU to just 14 ppg on 329 yards of total offense. With all of fall practice to get Connecticut read for this matchup, I look for the Huskies to surprise a lot of people with how their ability to keep the Cougars' star quarterback Taysom Hill in check.
Another important thing to note about UConn is the emergence of redshirt freshman quarterback Casey Cochran at the end of last season. Cochran started the final 4 games and after losing his first start on the road at SMU, he guided the Huskies to 3 straight wins to close out the year. What really stands out to me is that in the first 8 games without Cochran as the starter, Connecticut average a mere 18.3 ppg. In the 4 games with him under center they put up 30.5 ppg.
BYU has 6 starters back on defense, but they lose arguably their two best players on that side of the ball in linebackers Uani 'Unga and Kyle Van Noy. Even if the Huskies defense struggles, I look for Connecticut's offense to score enough to cover the 16-point spread. You also can't overlook that this game is on the road. Keep in mind that BYU lost at Virginia in the opener last year 16-19 and the Cavaliers went on to go 1-10 over their final 11 games.
Connecticut was 4-1 ATS as a home dog in 2013, while BYU was 0-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Jonathan Jorcin
Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Bowling Green -7
Bowling Green came banging on the MAC title game last year, and this year should be no different. They lose another Coach, which is no new thing for this program, as they frequently have their coaches leave the program for more high profile jobs. That means this year they get 29 year assistant coach in Dino Babers at the helm. Dino Babers does inherit a team poised to make another run, and with Matt Johnson under center they should be confident. The 6 foot 215 pound junior started last year as a backup. Matt Schilz was the starter, and he started for 2 years, but his production seemed to dip in the next couple of years. After two possessions on offense last year, Head Coach Dave Clawson at the time gave Johnson a try, and he stuck with him for the rest of the year. He has the ability to move the pocket, and can scramble if need be.
This year they lose the best production from the backfield in Hopgood, but get a unit that is more experienced behind JR Travis Greene who was 1st Team MAC last year. Offensively Bowling Green is better and will produce a lot of yards and points, but their strong point is their defense. Behind a healthy DJ Lynch, this is the best linebacker core in the division. The big question mark are the DB’s who ose 3 starters, but they do get back a healthy cornerback in Junior Darrell Hunter.
While Bowling Green seems to have gotten better, WKU takes a step back even though they did win 8 games last year. Offensively, they have a more experienced QB unit, but lose major production in the backfield. Defensively, they allowed 340 YPG last year, but with only 4 defensive returns, and losing much of their linebacker and defensive back core, they will allow more yards per game. Take the road favorites, to win by at least a touchdown.
Patrick Webb
BYU vs. Connecticut
Play: BYU -15½
This line opened up at -17 for BYU on the road and moved down to -15.5 pretty much everywhere across the board. I would expect it to hover around this number until kick off tomorrow. I would take BYU all the way back up to -17.
BYU has three things going for it in this game. There defense is always stout under Mendenhall, and although they have to replace some talent in the front 7, they have plenty of size and candidates to have a robust rotation along the d-line and at linebacker. BYU returns a ton of experience on offense including a very talented dual threat QB in Taysom Hill who accounted for 29 TDs running and passing last season. UConn's new coach Bobby Diaco is bringing a new system to a young team that has questionable talent along both lines and struggled to rush the ball last season.
BYU has a decided advantage when they have the ball. They were a solid and fast paced rushing attack and will likely wear down a young UConn front 7 that will be adjusting to a new look and doesn't currently have the size needed to implement a 3-4 front. BYU will be missing their top rusher in Jamaal Willimas, but Lasike and Hine both averaged over 5 yards per carry last season and Algernon Brown was at 4.9, not to mention Hill who scored 10 rushing TDs on over 7 yards per carry. BYU doesn't need to pass to be explosive on offense as they had 117 rushes of 10+ yards last season and should be better along the offensive line this season.
UConn is likely to look a bit different offensively this season with more of a focus on the running attack on early downs. The problem is they don't have a ton of returning experience along the offensive line and will struggle to generate any pop in the running game- they were nearly dead last in standard downs line yards and 123 in passing down sack rate. Casey Cochran has been handed the keys to the offense and was by far the most efficient QB in UConn's three headed monster at the position last season, but will likely be put in some rough spots in this game due to the emphasis being placed on the run game. UConn doesn't have the pieces to play from behind and will likely put themselves in a bigger hole each series after a two score deficit.
TJ Masterline
Bowling Green vs. Western Kentucky
Play: Bowling Green -7
The Falcons start their 2014 schedule this coming Friday night in a nationally televised game at Western Kentucky University. Touted offensive innovator Dino Babers has taken over the Bowling Green program after two very successful seasons as the head guy at Eastern Illinois University. The Falcons boast plenty of offensive firepower with eight returning starters, including All-MAC performers Matt Johnson at quarterback and Travis Greene at running back. Babers wants to play the up-tempo style of offense he brings from his days as an assistant at Baylor. BG certainly seems to have the pieces in place to run the new offense but how long will it take for it to totally come together? Babers is on record as saying he doesn't expect the Falcons to really get the offense down until sometime next year. So what we'll see in the interim from the Falcons offense is the $60,000 question that we'll begin to answer starting with this game. The defense that BG will face in the opener will be an inexperienced group. Only four defensive starters return for the Hilltoppers. Three of those are on the defensive line and they'll have their hands full keeping up with the BG offense that will try to run a play every 15 to 20 seconds. Are the Hilltoppers catching the Falcons at a good time? Without a doubt! This offense could be downright scary by season's end. The Hilltoppers are hoping the Falcons experience some initial bumps in the road adjusting to the new system. Bowling Green Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in August. Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Falcons are 38-17-1 ATS in their last 56 road games. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
LT Profits
Boston vs Tampa Bay
Pick: Over 7.5
This seems like a low total as there is potential for scoring when young Anthony Ranaudo and the Boston Red Sox visit Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays. Ranaudo is 2-0 his first two Major League starts, but he has not been impressive allowing six earned runs on 12 hits in 12 innings with terrible command, as he has five walks vs. just three strikeouts and a disturbing three home runs allowed. Granted Archer is on a roll allowing exactly one earned run each of his last four starts, but he may not need to allow much to push this game ‘over’ if Ranaudo does not improve and the Red Sox are one team Archer has had problems with as he has a 4.32 ERA and 1.44 WHIP while going 0-1 in three starts against them this year. The ‘over’ is 8-3-1 in Archer’s last 12 starts as a home favorite.
Sleepyj
Tampa Bay -1.5 +125
Tampa Bay gets back home tonight and will have RHP Chris Archer on the mound. Archer is a very strong pitcher that can bring the goods. Tampa lost 3 out of 4 and i expect a big bounce back win tonight. Let's face it Boston is struggling right now and are in the middle of a long road trip. They had to travel from Toronto to now Tampa and i think they will be a little sluggish in this one tonight facing Archer. Archer has hit his stride as his early season was bit a rocky. He won his last 4 out of 5 and i expect a nice outing for Archer tonight. His strikeouts have been up and that's always a good thing his last 5 games Archer has recorded 39 strikeouts. Boston has struggled to hit the ball so i think we will see a rather high strikeout game again from Archer. As for Boston they will look to Anthony Renaudo for his 3rd start of the year. This kid fails to throw strikes or even strikeouts for that matter. The Rays will be looking to tee off on this kid and he will def walk a few batters tonight. I don't think he will last very long tonight. He hasn't started since the 13th of August and actually 2 wins to his credit in 2 starts. That's not going to happen tonight as Archer and Tampa will outclass this Boston team tonight. I think this one is lopsided and i'll lay the RL here with the home team.
Bob Balfe
Arizona Diamondbacks -145
The Rockies have been awful on the road this year and their overall runs per game has been down. Arizona has the better starter tonight and the better bullpen. This is a Colorado team that is unique because they are built for their own ballpark at home and have a nice advantage there, but on the road are as bad as my baseball picks have been this week. Take the Diamondbacks
Wunderdog
UNLV @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona -23.5
The Arizona Wildcats may have something in Coach Rodriguez. He is in his third year at Arizona, and has won eight games in each of the first two seasons. One of the eight wins last season was against then ranked #5 Oregon, as he looks to take the program to greater heights. Arizona does not return their QB, but looking at their spring game, the offense won by scoring 58 points, which might say they are going to be fine on offense. UNLV earned the right to a Bowl game a year ago for the first time since the 2000 season. They won five more games than the previous year, but ominously hanging over the improvement was a ranking of #103 two years ago to just #96 last year. There is also a dark cloud looming over the program, as UNLV's APR scores are expected to get them a ban from potential Bowl participation, and that will be a motivation killer. This is a team that is 13-80 straight-up as a road dog in their last 93, and they are in over their heads in this one once again. All Arizona in this one.
BONES BEST BETS
COLORADO STATE +3 -105
Colorado had a rough year last year posting a 4-8 record while Colorado State had a decent 8-6 showing. More importantly Colorado will be starting 13 underclassmen this season with inexperience all over the field. Colorado State on the other hand has almost it’s entire offense back this season with their QB and top 5 WR from last year.
DODGERS ML -103
We will take the Dodgers 42-26 road record at plus money most days. The Dodgers have won 7 of 10 meetings vs the Padres since June 20th. The Dodgers are also hot winning 5 of their last 6 games. Haren has been better than Cashner this year and he has pitched very well in 3 of his last 4 starts. Cashner has struggled the past 3 games with a 1.56 WHIP. There is value in the Dodgers today and worth a small play at plus money.
ROYALS -1 -103
Starting for the Royals is Jason Vargas, who is 10-6 with a 3.17 ERA, the Royals pitching staff has been on fire allowing three or less runs in 18 of their last 30 games. They have won 16 of their last 17 games when allowing three or less runs. The Indians counter with Danny Salazar who is struggling this season going 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA. Salazar is 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA in three career starts against the Royals. Cleveland is 2-6 in Salazars last 8 road starts, while the Royals are 4-1 in Vargas’ last 5 home starts. The Indians are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City.
BRAVES RL (-1.5) +140
Miami has been struggling of late while Atlanta made the best of a long road trip finishing 6-4 over their past 10 games (all on the road). The Braves come home where they have had great success (37-28) while the Marlins have been roughed up on the road (28-36)
MARINERS @ NATIONALS – UNDER 6
Felix vs Zimmermann hard to expect much in the way of runs here. These guys both own sub 3 ERAs on the season. These guys both own sub 1 WHIPs over their past 3 starts. Opposing teams have scored a combined 5.6 runs per game this season when these two have started. 6 is a short line but we still think it’s a strong play.
PHILLIES ML +143
Phillies are red hot having won 4 straight and 7 of 9 overall. The Mets have dropped back to back contests and 7 of 10 overall. Lots of value here on the Phillies at plus money as the hotter team