Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday August, 31

Carlo Campanella
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Boise State vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -6½
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Boise State was an incredible 50-3 SU behind star QB Kellen Moore, including 12-1 SU records the past two seasons, but now heads to Michigan State to open their 2012 season without QB Moore in the huddle. It will take some time to get over the loss of QB Moore, especially knowing that the Broncos only return 8 of 22 starters from last year's team! In their first game without Moore, they'll take a jump in class to face solid Big Ten crew, Michigan State, that was 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS at home last year while winning those games by a combined 268 to 85 points. This new Boise offense will get tested on Friday as Michigan State returns 8 starters from a defensive unit that allowed just 18 points per game last season and might be the best in the Big Ten.

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Michigan St. -6.5
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I'm basing this pick hugely on the Michigan State defense guys which is a veteran bunch that has the potential to be a special unit this fall. Without question this shapes up to be one of the most entertaining and competitive games in this opening weekend. I honestly cannot recall the last time this Boise State program went into a season with so many question marks and that is frankly what is holding this down to a free release level. The Broncos are rebuilding and I look for them to improve dramatically as the season progresses, just too strong a coaching staff not to, plus as we all know the schedule favors it for them as usual. Much respect for this staff & program overall but I personally see this as a very manageable number for the Spartan's to clear. Suggest a small wager on Michigan State to flex their muscles over Boise State. Many sincere thanks as always guys and best of luck to us. Enjoy the games and remember that it's early in the game.

Marc LawrenceFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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When the Cardinals open a three-game series with the Nationals in Washington Friday night St. Louis will send Adam Wainwright to the hill knowing he is in terrific KW form with 54 strikeouts and 7 walks in his last eight starts. Wainwright is also 16-4 with a super-strong 1.68 ERA in his last 20 team starts during August. With the Nats beginning to feel the pressure of being in the pennant chase, look for Wainwright and the Red Birds to take the opener here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Jim FeistFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Play: New York Mets -150
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A big park in Miami, while will help knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (16-4, 2.76 ERA), who has just 41 walks and 145 hits allowed in 182 innings. He is 8-2 in his career against the Marlins and has owned this light hitting team this season with a 3-0 record and a 1.64 ERA against Miami. Miami has a losing record in its new home park and they are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Nate Eovaldi (4-9, 4.54 ERA) takes the mound for Miami and is 1-2 with a 5.52 ERA his last three starts. The Mets are 15-6 in Dickeys last 21 starts, including 7-0 in Dickey's last 7 starts against the Marlins. Play the NY Mets.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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MICHIGAN STATE -7 over Boise State: I know about 8 days ago I pooped into someone thread and said that Boise had a possible chance of covering in this game, but I have had a week to think and ready and study this game and I found that I really like the Spartans in this one. The Boise Broncos have lost 6 NFL DC's on their offense and now they must go into a hostile stadium and take on a Michigan State squad that is loaded on defense, with 8 starters back from a group that allowed just 18.4 ppg and 277 ypg last year. I know that Boise reloads, and they may still have a great offense, but this is too tall an order for them to handle in the opening game when the timing just might not be there. Michigan State also lost their star QB, but teh difference for them is the fact that they will be facing a Boise defense that has just 2 starters back, with their returning leading tackler having just 48 tackles last year. I just don't see this as a good spot for the Broncos as they have lost way too much from last years team and will be going up against a Spartans team that will contend for the Big 10 Title this year. Michigan State by 10+ here.

Freddy WillsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise State vs. Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Boise State +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both teams are in similar situations losing the heart and soul of their team at QB. Boise State also lost 9 starters on defense while Michigan State lost their receivers. So who is in worst shape? It would appear that's Boise State considering they lost an entire unit, but Boise State has been known to regroup quickly. Especialy in 2009 with a similar situation and playing Oregon where they held Blount & Lamichael James to just 17 yards rushing. They are now faster and more athletic with a pair of 300lb'ers on the inside. I think with the amount of time to prepare Boise State will be just fine. It helps them that the passing game with Michigan State is not developed so there will be a lot of 3 and outs and feeling each other out and that favors Boise State. Boise State has an offensive line where all 5 of the starters have starter at one point or another. They also have DJ Harper back and a talented group of receivers and TE's and Joe Southwick taking over at QB who is very familiar with the playbook as a back up the past two years. Southwick will also be a runner something Kellen Moore was never so that adds a new dimension to an offense that's sound and doesn't turn the ball over or take sacks. To me the game will remain close because of the vanilla play by both offenses.

ParlayJoe

The Brewers are on fire at home of late going 11-2 in their last 13 home games. The Brewers are also 9-2 in their last 11 versus the National League Central. Also, The Pirates Karsten's last 6 starts during game 1 of a series is 0-6. The play is on the Milwaukee Brewers.

Rob VincilettiFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Free plays are 21-10 and this one comes from a nice 14-2 system that plays on certain home favorites off a road favored win by 5 or more runs, while scoring 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a loss and left 5 or more runners on base. Oakland has McCarthy on the mound and he has a superb 2.76 home era this season. He will oppose a Boston team that is under going a house cleaning of sorts and had lost 19 of 28 in August. The Sox have lost 5 of the last 6 here. Oakland is 17-7 of late vs losing teams and 4-1 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5. Look for Oakland to take the opener here tonight.

Dave CokinFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee vs North Carolina State
Pick: Tennessee
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Terrific opener between two improved squads. I'm giving the edge to Tyler Bray as the star tonight, and I'll look for Tennessee to win and cover.

Scott SpreitzerFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boise State vs Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Michigan StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Boise State program is on a firm foundation...as long as Chris Peterson is calling the shots, they're going to be "in the thick of things." But very few programs can overcome the kind of losses the Broncos have suffered in quick fashion. BSU not only lost "numbers," but lost several quality athletes who're now playing for pay in the NFL. The defense was decimiated by graduation with just two returning starters. And of course, on offense, the Broncos return just four starters, losing four-year starter QB Kellen Moore, RB Doug Martin, and All American OLT Nate Potter. BSU expected to have five starters back on offense, but lost starting center Cory Yriarte, who is out for the season after suffering a knee injury in summer conditioning. One of my early season handicapping tools is to look for teams that lost their starting center, starting QB, and top RB -- Boise is one of those teams. The rebuilding offense will face a Spartan defense that returns eight starters. MSU was one of the best defenses in the nation last season in total yards allowed and were excellent at getting to opposing QBs. On the other side of the ball, Boise's interior defense is likely to get pushed around a bit by the Spartan ground game. MSU has to replace Kirk Cousins, but I don't believe it's quite as tough as replacing Moore. Andrew Maxwell knows the offense like the back of his hand, and unlike BSU QB Joe Southwick, Maxwell has four returning starters in front of him on the offensive line, along with bruising RB La'Veon Bell. HC Mark Dantonio's Spartans have won 22 games the last two years combined and they are now in position to make a huge opening week splash with a win over a public Boise State team. I'm recommending a play on Michigan State, minus the points.

JR O'DonnellFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals +100
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At 7:05 PM EST the first pitch will thrown in an important game between the visiting St Louis Cardinals (71-59 & 31-33 road) and the Washington Nationals (78-51 & 36-24). Cards are down "8" in NL Central and fighting for a wild card spot, while the Nat'ls are in first up "5" in the NL East. Cards send out righty Adam Wainwright (13-10, 3.63 ERa& 1.18 WHIP), who has been splendid at late winning his last "5" in a row and lowering his ERA .40. He faces lefty Gio Gonzalez (16-7, 3.28 ERA & 1.16 WHIP) of the NATS who has averaged "7" innings per outing in his last "5" starts and gone 3-2, and pitched well in every one but the last one. STL has the #1 scoring offense, but Washington has the #1 scoring defense. Something has to give, and we're betting on the home team who is 54-34 vs. right hand pitchers. Play the Nats

Tom FreeseFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Arizona DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 65-67 Diamondbacks are in Los Angeles for game 2 of their 4 Game series with the 70-62 Dodgers on Friday. Arizona gives the Ball to 9-11 Cahill while 9-8 Harang toes the rubber for Los Angeles. Cahill starts this contest with a 3.99 ERA Overall giving up 71 earned runs in 160 innings pitched allowing 62 BB and recording 121 K's. In the opposite dugout, Harang begins his day with a 3.70 ERA giving up 61 earned runs in 148.3 innings of work allowing 68 BB and fanning 116 Batters. The DBacks are 4-0 in their last 4 Road Games and 9-3 in their last 12 Friday Games. The Dodgers are 0-5 in Harangs last 5 starts as a Favorite and 0-4 in his last 4 Home Starts. Look for the D-Backs to win easily tonight.

DAVID BANKS

San Jose State Spartans +25

The Stanford Cardinal begin life without Andrew Luck on Friday, but they will still field a formidable team in a season that opens up with this home contest vs. the San Jose State Spartans from Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, CA at 10:00 ET on Pac-12 Network. A lot of teams would be devastated after losing the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, tight end Coby Fleener and starting offensive linemen David DeCastro and Jonathan Martin to the NFL, but not the Cardinal, who in fact enter this season still ranked 21st in the country.

Often forgotten after all that Luck did to revive the Stanford program is the fact that the Cardinal ranked 18th in the country in rushing offense last year with 210.7 yards per game on the ground, and that was after ranking 17th in rushing offense in 2010. Well, running back Stepfan Taylor is back for his senior season after rushing for 2467 yards in those last two seasons combined, the 11th best rushing total in the country over that span. But what about the two departed linemen you may ask? Well, Stanford had its best recruiting class in over a decade and the fifth ranked recruiting class in the nation this year, and that included two four-star recruits in offensive linemen Andrus Peat and Kyle Murphy. In other words, the blocking will still be there to open up holes for Taylor and also to pass protect for new starting quarterback Josh Nunes, a junior who himself was a four-star recruit when he arrived at Palo Alto two years ago. The defense returns seven starters from a unit that ranked second in the Pac-12 last year in both scoring defense (30th nationally) and total defense (28th nationally), although one of those starters, linebacker Shane Skov, is suspended for this game due to a DUI arrest.

San Jose State may not be at Stanford's level, but the Spartans have an up-and-coming program. This team finished at 5-7 last year to fall just one win shy of being bowl eligible, a marked improvement after going 3-22 combined in the previous two years, and San Jose ranked 23rd nationally in passing offense with 276.8 yards per game through the air. Granted, Quarterback Matt Faulkner is now departed, but his replacement has great potential as David Fales fits right into the Spartans' system after passing for over 4600 yards and 37 touchdowns in two years while completing 61.8 percent of his passes at the JUCO level. His favorite target will no doubt be last year's leading receiver Noel Grigsby, who is still just a junior although he already has over 1700 career receiving yards at San Jose State. If Stanford has a bit of an Achilles Heel, it is that it ranked 95th in the country in pass defense in 2011, so the Spartans may actually be able to put up some points here.

That was not the case the last two years when Stanford annihilated the Spartans by scores of 57-3 and 42-17 respectively with Luck under center. This series has been dominated by the home teams, as they have gone a perfect 8-0 both straight up and ATS in the last eight meetings. Of course, this is the eighth time in the last nine years that this game has been played in Stanford, although San Jose State did pull the 35-34 upset as a 10-point underdog the last time it was home in 2006.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tennessee Under 7 +135

It’s difficult to take a team to go over its posted season win total when you can’t find a home game that you feel they should win. That same task is even more difficult when the team you are examining could easily go 0-4 to start the season. The Titans fall into both categories.

This Tennessee squad will have their work cut out for them. In today’s NFL, it starts at quarterback. Second-year head coach Mike Munchak named 2nd year player, Jake Locker, as his starter. It is clear that Munchak has concerns with Locker, (will keep the starting quarterback job “unless there’s a reason to make a change.") as his #1 but in case of failure, veteran Matt Hasselbeck will be suited up for his 14th season in the bigs. Neither guy offers much confidence. Locker may turn out to be a good one but he has yet to start a game and in his few appearances last year, he completed just 51% (34 of 66) of his passes.

It doesn’t help help having Chris Palmer as the team’s offensive coordinator. Not only has Palmer had a laundry list of jobs, he came out of a 2010 retirement to take this position. Palmer’s offense is quite complicated and even a savvy and headsy veteran like Hasselbeck had difficulty with it. "Running in the run and shoot, with a quarterback that young, who struggles with accuracy, I don't see how that's going to work," said one scout. "Palmer wants his quarterbacks to see the game like a wide receiver, anticipate what the receiver is going to do, and adjust that for everyone in the route. Locker is still just trying to read the game like a quarterback.”

To make matters worse, Tennessee ’s best receiver is not without issues. Kenny Britt will attempt to rebound from an ACL injury and if that wasn’t enough, he’s headed for a suspension after being arrested for eighth time in three years when he was busted for a DUI back in June.

RB Chris Johnson had a disappointing 2011 season after an all-star 2010 campaign. If there isn’t a strong passing game, will he be able to shine again?

On the other side of the ball, the Titans lack a key aspect for being successful in this league. Tennessee managed just 28 sacks in 2011, second-worst in the NFL. They’ve hired personnel in an attempt to improve those numbers but we don’t see anything or anyone notable to believe that improvements are forthcoming.

Oh, almost forgot. Their best corner, Cortland Finnegan signed a $50 million contract this offseason...with the Rams.

Of course, each team’s schedule plays a part in their respective season win total. Let’s breakdown Tennessee ’s:
Would you go over 7 in a 12 game schedule? That’s what ‘OVER 7’ players could be in for here as the Titans could easily go 0-4 in the first month of the season. Tennessee opens at home to NE (current line is NE -6½), then they fly to San Diego to face the Chargers, back home to take on the Lions and then off to Houston.

October is a bit easier. A road game at Minnesota Vikings, then on four day’s rest, they’ll return home to play Pittsburgh on a Thursday night. That one is followed by a trip to Buffalo and the month ends with a home game to the division-rival Colts. Facing that quartet, a 1-3 month is almost as likely as a 3-1 mark. Let’s saw it off and call it 2-2, leaving them at 2-6 for the first half of the year.

In order to get to 8, the number needed to lose the under play, the Titans would have to go 6-2 in the season’s 2nd half.

The first challenge will be hosting a strong Chicago Bears squad. 2-7? Then, off to Miami, a question mark, at best. Tennessee then gets to enjoy their bye week but they’ll return to play three consecutive divisional games with a trip to Jacksonville , at home to Houston and finishing in Indianapolis . The Titans will close out by hosting the Jets on a featured Monday nighter, a trip to Green Bay (brrrrr!) and finally as hosts to the Jaguars.

If Tennessee is fortunate enough to win in Miami and then take two of three in that divisional set (possible, but unlikely), that still only gives them five wins. That would require sweeping the Jets, Packers and Jags to get to eight wins and we know that’s not going to happen.

Giving the Titans the benefit of the doubt, seven wins would be an achievement. Five or six wins is a more realistic expectation and one that will allow us to cash this UNDER 7 WINS ticket at season’s end.