SPORTS WAGERS
N.C. State +137 over Tennessee
Tennessee lost six of its final eight games a year ago and finished 1-7 in the SEC. The consensus is that with 19 returning starters and with a healthy Tyler Bray at QB, the Vols are in position to make some noise but the story is getting tiresome. Bray does have tremendous upside and he could surely thrive, but there are other concerns. The team’s top back Raijon Neal has only carried the ball 73 times in two years. Top wideout Da'Rick Rogers was dismissed from the team for violating undisclosed team rules. That leaves Justin Hunter (2 TD’s last year) and junior college transfer Cordarrelle Patterson to pick up the slack.
The Wolfpack get little respect every year but continually deliver some decent football while winning their share of games. They went 8-5 a year ago and blew away national ranked Clemson 37-13 before beating Louisville in the Belk Bowl. Mike Glennon returns after an outstanding first year as starter (backed up Russell Wilson previously) in which he completed better than 62 percent of his passes for 3,054 yards and 31 touchdowns. With a year under his belt and with four offensive linemen returning, he could be even better. In addition to a capable passing attack, NC State has a solid back in James Washington, who went off for over 900 yards and seven TD’s.
The Wolfpack are simply the more consistent team. They rarely beat themselves and they have the killer instinct when the opportunity arises. Tennessee is a bit of a wild card again. The talent is there, the results are not and every year they disappoint. The Vols will have to prove that they’re worthy of spotting points against a very difficult opponent. So far they have proven nothing. This game is on neutral turf (Georgia Dome) and we find it puzzling to find Tennessee as chalk. But that suits us just fine.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA -102 over Philadelphia
The Braves come into this series tied with St. Louis for first in the Wild Card race. The Pirates are a half game out and the Dodgers are there too, just 1½-games back. Every series is crucial from here on in. The Braves warrant our attention as they are as tough as shoe leather in their own yard.
Roy Halladay has been stellar in August, which is nothing new but he’s already been knocked around twice by Atlanta this year (11.1 IP, 11 ER). He also has a 4.31 ERA on the road.
Mike Minor is a lefty and the Phillies have six wins in 19 tries on the road against southpaw starters. Minor has a 2.45 ERA post All-Star break and it comes with full skills support. He has not walked a single batter in three straight starts and has pitched into the seventh inning in four straight. Minor already dispatched of Philly on July 28 (8 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks) and there’s no reason he can’t do it again.
TORONTO +114 over Tampa Bay
The Blue Jays are 16 games out of first and 13½ games out of a Wild Card spot. With a month to go and having to leapfrog over a bunch of teams, Toronto is finished. There’s no chance that they would send Brandon Morrow, one of their prized possessions, out there after being on the DL for two months unless he was feeling strong and 100% ready.
Morrow makes his second start since coming off the DL. He was somewhat effective in his first start back with two runs allowed in 4.2 frames. That game was to shake off the rust. He still has an elite strikeout rate and a 3.06 ERA on the year and that’s with a low strand percentage of 73%. There’s no denying that he’s as talented as almost any pitcher in baseball but his maddening inconsistency prevents him from being considered among the elite. He’s just 28 and has many gems left in that talented arm.
Jeremy Hellickson is almost the opposite of Morrow. Outstanding surface numbers but completely pedestrian skills right across the board. Hellickson had 13 wins and a sub 3.00 ERA last season. 2012 is looking a lot like last year with the same average skills. Hellickson’s groundball/line-drive/flyball profile is 41%/21%/38%/. He has 48 walks and 91 strikeouts in 139 innings. His xERA is 4.45. Hellickson’s stats are comparable and to guys like Joe Saunders, only the results have been very different. These are average skills with great results, strongly suggesting a forthcoming ERA correction. Sell high.
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St Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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MLB Free Play - St Louis at Washington With the combination of Adam Wainwright getting the start tonight, and the Cardinals in a major hitting slump right now having scored only 1 run in their last 3 games - makes for a highly recommended play on the under in this spot here this evening. Under is 6-1 in Wainwrights last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. Under is 5-1 in Wainwrights last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 3-0-1 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
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SF Giants -1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Quite simply a SP mismatch here, as Bumgarner vs Volstad is mismatch city, and of course we have the definite edge in the bullpen too, here. Add on how anemic the Cubs are vs LH pitching, and they face one of the games best lefties, and I definitely expect Bumgarner to out pitch Volstad here & hand the ball over to their very solid bully. Cubs just .225 avg vs LH this season & a anemic .625 OPS. SF fighting for the playoffs & the Cubbies of course "playing out the strings" here....SP edge, bully edge, fade Cubs vs LH & a definite motivational edge here IMO, adds up to SF covering the RL & my money is on the SFG RL this afternoon.
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Cincinnati Reds -182
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Astros have lost 5 straight and 48 of their last 56. Reds are Reds are 36-15 in their last 51 overall, 5-1 in their last 6 on the road and 9-1 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Reds are also 37-16 in their last 53 versus the Astros, including 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Houston. Take Cincy.
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St. Louis Cardinals -102
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St. Louis' Wainwright is in top form. He has won 5 straight starts without allowing more than 2 runs in any of those wins.
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Washington's Gonzalez is certainly having a nice season. However, I expect the lefty to get roughed up tonight. The Cardinals have lunched on southpaw starters this season, hitting .294 off them and scoring 5.9 runs per game. They are 27-13 against lefty starters on the year, including 17-5 in their last 22 games versus a left-handed starter.
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With the way Wainwright has been pitching, and with the way St. Louis has owned lefties, I'll gladly get behind the Cards at this price.
Steve JanusFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cards/Nationals UNDER 7.5
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I expect a very low scoring affair Friday night between the Cardinals and Nationals. Two of the National League's top starters will be taking the mound in Adam Wainwright and Gio Gonzalez.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Wainwright has returned to form late in the year. He is 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.871 WHIP over his last three starts! He now has a respectable 3.63 ERA and 13 wins on the season. Gonzalez also comes in on fire, going 2-1 with a 2.94 ERA over his last 3. Gonzalez has a 3.19 ERA over 11 starts at home.
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The UNDER is 4-1-1 in Wainwrights last 6 starts overall and 6-2-2 in his last 10 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
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The UNDER is 3-1-1 in Gonzalezs last 5 starts overall and 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
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It's also 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
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Detroit Tigers -133
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This is a huge series for the Detroit Tigers. They have lost three straight games coming in to fall three games behind the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central division. They are looking at this Game 1 as their most important contest of the season.
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Doug Fister continues going under the radar each season. The right-hander has posted a 3.67 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 19 starts this year. He sports a 3.51 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox as well.
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Jake Peavy has struggled in his last two starts against Detroit this season. He has given up 10 earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in those two outings for a 7.30 ERA.
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The Tigers are 19-4 in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season. The White Sox are 1-7 in Peavy's last 8 road starts. Chicago is 1-7 in its last 8 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Detroit is 22-6 in its last 28 home games. Bet the Tigers Friday.
Chuck O'Brien
My free pick run is now at 101-64-2, and tonight I am playing the Texas Rangers over the Cleveland Indians. The two-time defending American League champions owe me for a couple nights back, and it starts here with this 1♦ comp play, as they're laying an awfully cheap price to a team that has played itself out of the playoff picture.
It took a minute for right-handed starter Ryan Dempster to right his ship, but he appears to be just fine now, in his new digs down in Arlington. The 35-year-old quick-fire artist is now 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts for Texas. Though his ERA is 5.46 since being acquired from the Cubs on July 31, he's 3-1 with his new team and shown dominance in weaker teams. Toss out out a pair of eight-run games - against the Angels and Yankees - and he has an ERA of 1.30.
Now he gets to take that two-seam, 90 mile per hour fastball with good run and sink to Cleveland, where the Indians have struggled as one of the league's worst home-hitting teams. The Tribe only bats .250 in Cleveland. Texas, on the other hand, ranks third in the league with a .267 road batting average.
And though he's on the road, make note Dempster has a much better road ERA (2.50) this season, than he does at home (3.55). He's found a knack for missing bats and keeping the ball in the park, and tonight he should have no trouble stifling the struggling Indians, who come in mired in a 3-13 slide against A.L. West teams and 0-6 the last six Fridays.
Take the Rangers - and lay the chalk.
1♦ TEXAS
Matt Rivers
8-1 free play run.
Friday's free play winner is to take the points in tonight's Tennessee-N.C. State contest.
Neutral site game tonight, and I am all about backing the underdog Wolfpack.
Plenty of starters back from an 8-5 team that closed last season with three straight wins and covers. In those wins, the 'Pack rang up a whopping 124-points. QB Mike Glennon returns and is fresh off a season in which he threw for over 3,000 yards and 31 touchdowns.
Tennessee is a team that added seven new assistants in order to try an improve a team that won just five games last season. Not sure why the Volunteers are actually laying points in this one, as they failed in their lone try as a road favorite last season.
The Wolfpack are a positive 9-3-1 against the spread when listed as the underdog, and it is hard to argue their 26-13-1 spread mark as the dog since coach Tom O'Brien took over back in 2007.
N.C. State out of the gate with an outright upset win over the revamped Volunteers tonight at the Georgia Dome.
2♦ N.C. STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Under in the Orioles-Yankees game from Yankee Stadium.
Big series in the Bronx opens tonight, and I don't see many runs being scored, as Baltimore comes into this game having played Under the total in three of their last four games, while the Yankees have been Under in five of their last seven overall.
Pitching matchup also suggests not a lot of runs being scored, as Baltimore hurler Miguel Gonzalez has allowed two runs or less in three of his last four starts, while each of his last five assignments have ended up playing Under the posted total.
Hiroki Kuroda counters for the Yanks, and his 9-4 home mark with a 2.22 home ERA should be all the evidence you need to tell you that the O's will see plenty of 0's up on the scoreboard tonight.
Kuroda's last eight starts have ALL landed Under the total.
Orioles and Yankees open the weekend with a low-scoring game tonight.
5♦ BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Friday night is on the Washington Nationals against the St. Louis Cardinals, as the National League East leaders are laying a cheap price tonight in the second game of this four-game we%k1%kend set. Washington struck first, in its first meeting with the defending World Series champs. Last night's 8-1 win by the Nats set the tone for what could be an important message here in the last half of the season, as it marked the first of seven contests the teams will play before the end of the regular season.
Washington, which is 5-1/2 games ahead of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, appears to have recovered from scoring merely six runs during a five-game skid by scoring eight runs in back-to-back wins now. And even though the Nationals figure to have their hands full with Cardinals-ace Adam Wainwright, who is 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA and a 33-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, while holding opponents to a .203 batting average, I'm not too conce%k2%rned knowing how hot the Washington bats can get.
Don't look now, but rookie outfielder Bryce Harper - from right here in Las Vegas - has homered three times in the past two games, and six times since Aug. 4. Let Wainwright come across with one mistake tonight, and I'm saying Harper is going deep again to pace this offense.
And it's not as if we have a slouch going for us tonight, with Gio Gonzalez stepping to the mound tonight. He's 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his last three starts, and will be look%k3%ng to tie Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto with a major-league leading 17 wins.
I'll take my chances with the Nationals.
2♦ WASHINGTON
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Boise State vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -7
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Boise St lost alot of their quality players to last years draft, while Michigan St lost players also, top programs like Michigan St just reload. Michigan St kicks off the season at Home and their top 10 defense should make the difference.
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1 Unit on NY Mets -152
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Mets have the edge with R.A. Dickey on the bump. Dickey is having a tremendous season. He is 16-4 with an ERA of 2.68 in 26 starts. Dickey has absolutely owned the Marlins. The Mets are 7-0 in his last 7 starts against them, and he has held them to 2 runs or fewer in each of the last 6. Bet the Mets.
MLB Predictions
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 -105
The Orioles took 3 of 4 against Chicago and have now won 5 of their last 6 games scoring 30 runs over those 6 games (5 runs per game). The Yankees lost 2 of 3 to an injured Blue Jays team at home and have now lost 6 of their last 9 games. Miguel Gonzalez is on the mound for Baltimore and he is 5-3 on the season with a 3.66 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and .248 opponents batting average. On the road his numbers are great going 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA. He pitched in New York last month going 6.2 innings giving up 4 earned runs. Hiroki Kuroda is pitching for New York and he is 12-9 with a 2.98 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 2.37 opponents batting average. He has been solid as of late with a 1.91 ERA in August going 2-2. A few good stats for Baltimore here: they are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and they are 12-5 in their last 17 road games vs a team with a home winning % of .600 or better. They are also 6-1 in their last 7 divisional games. Somehow this Orioles team has just been findning a way to win. Also note that they are 4-1 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts. The Orioles are 4-2 in New York this season, and I like the value getting a run on the run line. Take the Orioles who should keep it tight or possibly outright win tonight.