Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 8

DUNKEL INDEX

NFL

Oakland at Minnesota
The Raiders head to Minnesota on Friday night to open their preseason. Oakland is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Raiders favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3)

Game 263-264: Miami at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.670; Atlanta 124.729
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 6; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2 1/2); Over

Game 265-266: Buffalo at Carolina (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 122.521; Carolina 118.676
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 33
Vegas Line: Buffalo 1 1/2; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1 1/2); Under

Game 267-268: Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 116.743; Jacksonville 120.518
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 4; 32
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 1; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-1); Under

Game 269-270: New Orleans at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 120.253; St. Louis 126.409
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 6; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-3); Over

Game 271-272: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.284; Chicago 120.337
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Chicago by 2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2); Under

Game 273-274: Oakland at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.818; Minnesota 120.861
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Over

WNBA

San Antonio at Tulsa
The Stars head to Tulsa tonight and come into the contest with an 0-4 ATS record in their last 4 road games. Tulsa is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-4)

Game 601-602: Washington at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.606; Indiana 114.062
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1 1/2; 149
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+5); Over

Game 603-604: Connecticut at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.272; New York 109.039
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 154
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+3 1/2); Over

Game 605-606: San Antonio at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 105.603; Tulsa 112.540
Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 7; 160
Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 4; 165
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-4); Under

Game 607-608: Atlanta at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 106.659; Los Angeles 112.486
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 6; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 2; 160
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-2); Under

Bryan Power

Buffalo vs. Carolina
Pick: Buffalo

Already, we've seen the line move in favor of the Bills. That's no shock to me as conventional wisdom holds that a team playing in its 2nd preseason game will have a significant edge on an opponent playing its first. Though I lost w/ Buffalo in Sunday's Hall of Fame Game, I thought that they outplayed the Giants. They lost because a reserve defensive back was beaten badly on a long throw and completely misplayed his man and the ball. For the game, first downs were even at 19 per side. The Bills problem was that each of their backup quarterbacks threw an interception in the end zone. That likely cost them not only the cover, but the game as well.

Carolina is a team that a lot of people, myself included, is down on this year. Yes, the Panthers went 12-4 and won the NFC South a year ago. But their luck turned in close games from previous seasons and HC Ron Rivera got more agressive in his fourth down playcalling. This year's team is exceptionally weak in three areas: 1) offensive line, 2.) secondary and 3.) receiverss. In fact, Cam Newton may have the worst set of receivers in the league coming into the year.

With so many holes on the roster, I expect the Panthers to struggle this preseason. With one game already under its belt, I expect Buffalo to be sharper and come away w/ the win here.

Sleepy

Buffalo Bills Pk

Carolina has it's first preseason game tonight. Buffalo is on it's second game of this Preseason. This is more of a play on Buffalo here. Carolina will be without start QB Cam Newton. Carolina also has 3 other QB's to work into the mix tonight. That should create less scoring and a few more punts than most would think. Buffalo will have a few extra series on offense. Buffalo will be more in tune as they had 1st, 2nd & 3rd string reps last week. They will look to iron out any wrinkles from last week.Buffalo QB's Tuel and Lewis had some good production last week an will improve this week for sure. I think Buffalo will have a actual game plan this week as Carolina will be trying to just get some game reps. Buffalo seems like a team that is trying to get younger as Carolina looks to be getting older. Buffalo has more depth with the 2nd and 3rd units and i believe it will show tonight. Carolina depends on the defense for the most part, and i think if they have a shot at any regular season success they will need to limit the defense in the preseason. Bryce Brown and Robert Woods among others looked pretty good last week for Buffalo. They are playing for starting reps and many touches this year with Buffalo. I think this line is wrong by more than a few points. It would not shock me to see Buffalo win by double digits.

Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -134

Colorado is a weak road team and is stuck with southpaw starter Tyler Matzek (2-6, 5.31 ERA). The team is 1-9 his last 10 starts, off an 11-5 loss at Detroit allowing 10 hits, 8 runs in 4 innings. The Rockies are 6-20 in their last 26 during game 1 of a series, 17-44 in their last 61 overall. Arizona is 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Chase Anderson (3.19 ERA) is very good and on a roll, allowing 1, 1, 2 and 1 run the last four starts. The Rockies are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Rockies are also 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in Arizona and 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.

Scott Spreitzer

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Washington Nationals -116

Washington beat the Mets with a 13th inning walk-off home run yesterday, extending their lead to 4 1/2 games over the Atlanta Braves. Stephen Strasburg will look to deal ATL their 9th straight loss in this big weekend series opener. Strasburg hasn't always enjoyed his starts against the Braves, but the current version is not scoring runs. The Braves have scored a total of 18 runs during the 8-game skid. Strasburg had a couple of so-so starts on July 18 & 23, but he's back on track in his last two starts and in four of his last six. The righty has 54 strikeouts and just 10 walks in his last 46 2/3 IP. Ervin Santana has thrown a ton of pitches of late, at least 102 in each of his last four starts. I believe there will be some regression for the righty in this one, especially with the likelihood he's not going to get much help from his slumping teammates at the plate. The Nats enter on a 58-28 road-chalk run and we'll back them tonight. I'm recommending a play on the Nationals on Friday.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Washington Nationals -116

The Nats cashed big in afternoon action on Thursday beating the Mets in Extras. Now they travel to Atlanta to take on a reeling Atlanta Team that has lost 8 straight and is scoring just 2 runs per game in that stretch. The Braves have lost all 5 games to winning teams in the 2nd half. Washington fits a powerful road warrior system that has won at a 90% clip. We want to play on road favorites off a home win, vs an opponent like Atlanta off a road favored loss and scored 4 or less runs. The Nationals have S. Strasburg on the mound and we will back him over Santana and the Braves.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Will Rogers

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -133

The Orioles are coming back to Baltimore after a successful road trip to Canada, where they won 2-of-3 versus the Blue Jays. They've played some good baseball lately going 6-2 in their last eight games, and we get a reasonable price to back the home team in this contest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Orioles hand the ball to Chris Tillman (8-5, 3.78 ERA) who's undefeated in his last four starts. The 26 year old tossed seven scoreless innings allowing only four hits in a 1-0 win versus the Mariners his last time out. He's only 2-5 over 11 starts home at Oriole Park for the season, but has a 2.78 ERA. The Cardinals will counter with right-hander Justin Masterson (5-6, 5.63) who makes his second start since coming over from the Indians. His debut was not all that impressive, he surrendered five runs on seven hits with three walks over six innings.

2. Home cookin' - The Orioles have won their last four home games versus a right-handed starter, and Masterson fits the bill here. Their own starter points toward a positive trend as well, Baltimore is 4-1 in Tillman's last five home starts.

3. X-factor - Masterson has walked 20 batters over his last 24 innings. Control issues are nothing new for the right-hander.

Art Aronson

Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -145

The visiting White Sox start Jose Quintana (6-7, 3.04 ERA) who is coming off a solid outing, the right-hander allowed an unearned run over five innings in a loss to the Twins. Unfortunately for Quintana, he has just one win in his last six trips to the bump due to lack of run support. Note that Quintana owns a pedestrian 4.00 ERA in 18 innings pitched with zero decisions in three games started vs. Seattle. The Mariners will counter with Hisashi Iwukuma (9-6, 2.94 ERA); Iwakuma allowed only a solo home run over 7 2/3 innings but suffered the loss against the Orioles on Sunday. Note though that Iwukuma has gone at least seven innings in six straight starts while giving up two runs or fewer in five of them. I don’t think we need to overanalyze this one; Chicago is 5-9 on the road this season as an underdog in the +120 to +150 range. The Mariners easily took care of the White Sox yesterday and all signs point to another relatively easy victory; condsider SEATTLE in this one.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Jimmy Adams

Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers
Play: Buffalo Bills -1½ -105

The Bills were able to get rid of all their preseason jitters in the “Hall of Fame” game, a contest in which they actually outplayed the Giants, despite losing. Buffalo is likely to be one of the surprise teams in the league this year, much like the Panthers were last year. How far the Bills go this year will largely depend on QB E.J. Manuel.

Manuel didn’t play well in the opener but expect a better effort from him in this situation. He’ll be looking to connect with the 4th overall pick in the draft, Sammy Watkins. In a draft that was very deep at the WR position, the Bills gave up a lot to secure Watkins, and in turn, there’s a lot of pressure on him. The stars won’t play much in this one, so look for C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson to be on the sidelines for most of the game. Buffalo is very high on 3rd string RB Bryce Brown, who ran well in the HOF game. Brown will receive the bulk load of the carries in this one, as they want to see what he can do and possibly make a trade to get better at a different position.

You can expect a tremendous drop-off from the Panthers this season. This team got worse in pretty much every way possible. They lost their franchise receiver in Steve Smith, and didn’t bring much in, so lack of talent at the WR position will be very costly.

Newton will be throwing to all new faces, so his timing will definitely be off. He is also coming off of ankle surgery in the offseason, so he won’t be playing much at all in this one. The Panthers have holes at pretty much every position, especially on the offensive side. With the Bills having already played a game, along with the significant talent gap between these two squads, look for the Bills to cover the number in this one.

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Edges - Giants: Bumgarner 10-3 with 1.58 ERA away team starts (as opposed to 4-7 with 5.60 ERA home) this season. Royals: Vargas 4.77 home ERA (as opposed to 2.50 ERA away) this season. With Bumgarner in sharp KW form with 18 strikeouts and 3 walks his last three starts, and 3-0 with a microscopic 0.39 ERA his last three-way team starts, we recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

DAVE COKIN

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT CHICAGO BEARS
PLAY: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +2

Most coaches don’t have much to say about what they’re planning to in pre-season games. Back in the good old days, it was actually pretty common practice for the coaches to basically give away their exhibition game plans. That doesn’t happen as much anymore, although it’s possible to pretty much get a good clue as to what’s intended with depth chart rotations frequently available.

Chip Kelly has a chance to be the exception to the rule, at least for the time being. The second-year Eagles head coach was chatty in an interview I saw with him yesterday, and I’m using that information to make a play this evening.

Kelly talked about the difference between his first training camp and this one. He offered that last year he was more into evaluating what was on hand rather than doing anything specific, but that this isn’t the case this time around. Kelly stated that he is going to implement some regular season playbook material right from the outset this camp, and I sat up and took notice for two reasons when he said that.

First off, I don’t agree with Kelly doing this. If I’m the coach, I am going to keep as much as I can under wraps. The less the opposition knows, the better. To me, this is giving away free information to opposing coaches.

But I like the fact that Kelly is doing so form a personal perspective. If he’s running the fast break and actual playbook material in the first pre-season game, that should be an advantage against a Chicago defense that has zero reason to game plan for this game and from what i can gather, hasn’t done so to any extent. It sure sounds like they’re going to play mostly zone and will be primarily evaluating at linebacker and in the secondary, where there are some legit depth chart duels taking place.

Clearly, there is no guarantee that the Eagles will be sharp running their fast break. But if Kelly is actually going to do what he says, I can’t see how it’s not an advantage for the Philly side. Pre-season is all about getting an edge and then hoping it pays off. That’s the storyline for me in this game, and I’ll therefore be taking the small number with the Eagles.

Bob Balfe

Atlanta Falcons -3

To say the Dolphins Offensive Line is a mess would be the understatement of the year. Nobody returns from last year on that starting line and this was a team that had to win one of its final two games to make the playoffs and failed to do so. I don’t think this is a quality football team this year. It will take a while for this team to gel and in the meantime you just hope the quarterbacks stay healthy. Atlanta is a tough crowd at home and on this surface I expect them to win with their speed. Take the Falcons.

Buffalo Bills -1.5

There is always an advantage when a team has a game under the belt already and especially when they fought hard and lost the football game. Cam Newton is not going to play and this team goes as he goes. I don’t expect the Panthers to play much of their starters and this will be a game that in the second half Buffalo can pull first downs running the ball with mobile QB’s. This is a Bills team that is going to make a playoff push this year. The Panthers have a great defense, but they will be extremely vanilla in the preseason. Take Buffalo.

San Francisco Giants -120

Madison Bumgarner has been very solid all season long and he is starting to get stronger as the year goes on. The Giants bullpen is sensational. Neither team really does well against left handed pitching so I expect runs to be at a premium this evening. In a case like so I lean more towards Bumgarner who has better numbers and that bullpen which can go deep into the night. Take the Giants.

Robert Ferringo

Miami Dolphins +2.5

It feels like it has been forever since I put the wraps on a dominating 2013-2014 football betting season. Last year we laid the foundation for my amazing season – nearly $8,000 in profit – with a great preseason. And this is really where it all begins so let’s start off with a winner. And let’s call this one the Hard Knocks Game. Miami was featured in the HBO show just two years ago and the Falcons are the current focus of the show. It sounds foolish, but I have actually noticed a trend that the teams on that show seem to play a little harder during the whole of the preseason. It is mainly because they know that if they screw up they are going to be focused on in the following episode. That said, the same is true for the opponent. And I have noticed that the teams featured on Hard Knocks seem to be a bit distracted by all of the attention early in the preseason. To wit, the Hard Knocks teams have gone 1-5 ATS in their first preseason game since the show was rebooted in 2007. The Chiefs lost in 2007. The Cowboys in 2008. The Bengals and Jets got hammered in 2009 and 2010, respectively. There was no show in 2011. In 2012 the Dolphins got slapped in their opener. Then last year the Bengals became the first team to win its preseason opener while being on the show. Atlanta doesn’t look like it has much talent. And Mike Smith has been one of those coaches that just mails it in during the preseason. He is a woeful 7-17 ATS in his career during the preseason, including a horrific 1-11 ATS in his last 12 games. Miami is a little deeper in the quarterback pool and they are in a make-or-break season for Coach Philbin. I can’t really figure out why the Falcons are favored in this one and I think Miami will win this game outright

Mike Davis

Padres / Pirates Under 7

Ian Kennedy is the ace of the Padres staff and he has pitched really well as of late. In his last 6 starts, he has pitched 37 innings allowing just 25 hits and 10 earned runs while striking out 39 batters. Included in those starts was a brilliant performance vs. the Dodgers as Kennedy pitched 8 innings allowing just 3 hits and no runs. Kennedy has faced the Pirates once this season and he had a normal Ian Kennedy performance. In that start, he pitched 6 innings allowing 5 hits and 2 earned runs while striking out seven Pirates’ batters. The Pirates counter with Vance Worley who has also been very good this season. He sports a 4-1 record with a 2.43 era and he has been especially good in his last three starts. In those outings, he pitched 21 innings allowing 18 hits and just 2 earned runs. You have to go back two years to find Worley squaring off with the Padres. He faced SD twice in ’12 and he pitched really well. He pitched 13 innings allowing 10 hits and 3 earned runs while striking out a staggering 20 batters. San Diego has scored the least amount of runs in MLB and they are a staggering 50 runs behind the next team. While Pittsburgh ranks in the top 12 in runs scored, they have been dealt a big blow with McCutcheon being hurt. He is their “rock” and runs will be tough to come by without him in the lineup. My numbers indicate a combined score of 4.74 in this game. Take the Under.