Jason Sharpe
St. Louis Cardinals +115
A very quiet trade that no one has talked much about involved the St. Louis Cardinals acquiring Justin Masterson from the Cleveland Indians last week. Masterson is the exact kind of ground ball type pitcher that has excelled in the past for St. Louis. Despite having a rocky season overall this year so far, Masterson has shown in the past he has excellent stuff and can have elite levels games from time to time. A change of scenery should only help him this year. The Baltimore Orioles continue to surprise many that follow baseball closely including myself. The Orioles find ways to win games and have really been doing well lately in close contests. Chris Tillman goes for them here and is pitching much better of late but he’s still just an average pitcher at best. Baltimore has taken advantage of an American League East division that is way down this year compared to past seasons. Take St. Louis here.
Allen Eastman
Carolina Panthers +1.5
I want to get the football season started with an NFL winner! This play isn’t from my amazing NFL 411 System (115-76 for $19,200 profit) but I still like it nonetheless. The Bills are ready for a letdown. It was an emotional weekend for the Bills and their fans last weekend in Canton. And it ended with Buffalo losing to the Giants. Now Buffalo has to go back on the road for the second straight game and play for the second time in less than a week. They are not going to care much about this game and I think that fatigue is going to be a factor. Especially if it is hot and humid down in Carolina. Carolina actually has revenge for a tough loss in Buffalo early last season and I think this game means a lot more to the Panthers. I think that the wrong team is favored in this game. I am going to take Carolina.
James Manos
Nationals at Braves
Play: Braves
Atlanta returns home after an absolutely disastrous 0-8 SU road trip that has put them behind in the NL East. That lengthy losing streak and now facing the first place Nationals will make this series seem like a "make or break" matchup for the Braves so I expect their best effort. Atlanta is rested while the Nationals must travel off an extra-inning affair and that sets up nicely for the home squad. Strasburg has been much more mortal this season especially away from home and Santana is in good form. BIG series for the Braves and they need to start off with a win.
Tony George
Buffalo – 2
After a defeat in the Hall fo Fame game, I like Buffalo here to play vastly better in their 2nd game as opposed to Carolina playing their first game even on the road. My sources tell me that the Buffalo coaching staff was very disappointed in the offense in their first game, and plan on utilizing the offensive starters more tonight which gives an early edge to the Bills. I do not expect much scoring in this one, as we have seen NFLX action in Week one so far, counting the Hall of Fame Game with the Unders going 6-1 ATS.
The Bills are loaded 3 deep at RB that will bode well for them tonight and I thought the defense played fairly well in their first game as well. Oddsmakers favoring the Bills here even on the road so a small tip of the hand for those who see the value in playing your 2nd game of the Preseason as opposed to your first.
LT Profits
Colorado vs Arizona
Pick: Under 8.5
It could be a low scoring game between the teams with the two worst records in the National League when the Colorado Rockies visit the Arizona Diamondbacks. Highly regarded rookie Chase Anderson has been a bright spot for Arizona going 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA, allowing two runs or less in four straight starts! He limited the Rockies to one run on four hits in six innings in Colorado earlier and is facing a Rockies’ offense batting .229 vs. right-handers away from Coors Field. Colorado southpaw Tyler Matzek was selected in the first round of the MLB Draft, but the tall hard-thrower has had an uneven rookie year at 2-6 with a 5.31 ERA. Still, he has allowed three runs or less in six of 10 starts and Arizona is hitting .216 vs. lefties the last 10 games. The ‘under’ is 8-2-2 in the Rockies’ last 12 road games.
Tom Barton
Arizona vs Colorado
Pick: Arizona -125
The Dbacks lineup may look like a minor league team but they are still looking so much better than this depleted and ineffective Rockies lineup. The Rockies struggles on the road are epic right now. With just 17 road wins on the year this team has been horrible away from Coors all year but it's gotten much worse lately. The Rockies have lost 18 of 20 on the road and are averaging 2.8 runs away over the last 20. To go one step further they have been held to 3 runs or less away from Coors in 11 of the last 13 games. Now they face a red hot starter that is flying under the radar. Chris Anderson has a 1.80 ERA over his last 4 starts. Anderson has allowed just two teams in the last 11 to score more than 2 runs and those were just 3 and 4. The Dbacks have won 3 of his last 4 games and at home he has allowed 4 runs in his last 3 games. The Rockies send Tyler Matzek to the hill and he has looked terrible away as well. Matzek is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in five starts away from home and is coming off of a start where he allowed 8 runs over 4 innings. The Dbacks have the home field, pitching advantage and get to face the worst bullpen in baseball as well. This one is a must play.
Brandon Shively
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Money Line: -133 Cincinnati Reds -133
I like the Reds to continue with their momentum and win this game as it appears they have broken out of their offensive slump and have an offense to give their starting rotation enough run support to keep their 3 game winning streak alive. Tonight they will have Mike Leake on the mound who has a 1.24 WHIP on the season. He just pitched vs. the Marlins in his last start and only scattered 3 hits in 6 IP as the Reds won the game 7-3. He did walk a season high 4 batters but Leake is a pitcher that does not walk a lot of batters and I look for him to be back in control tonight. Now in 3 career starts vs. the Marlins, Leake is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA. The Reds are averaging 5 runs a game over their last 7 games while hitting .278 from the plate. The pitching staff is doing their job as well limiting opponents to a .209 batting average and only 2.7 runs a game. This fits in well considering the Marlins are only hitting .195 as a team the last 7 games, scoring 2.7 runs a game. The Reds are 10-5 this season (66%) as a home favorite of -125 to -150. The Marlins will have Eovaldi on the mound and they are only 2-8 in his 10 road starts this season. Eovaldi has not been striking out batters lately and has been walking too many batters and producing too many fly-balls. Although Eovaldi is coming off a quality start vs. the Reds, I will note that the Marlins are 0-6 in his last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Reds are 8-1 SU the last 9 matchups vs. the Marlins and are 5-1 in Leake's last 6 starts as a home favorite. We also want to Play against ALL teams when the ML is +125 to -125 (Miami) after a game where they had at least 10 less hits than their opponent, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. This Play Against Situation is 70-39 since 1997 (64%)
Ben Burns
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Seattle Mariners -146
The Mariners were my free play yesterday. Not surprisingly, they won 13-3 over the struggling White Sox. With Hisashi Iwakuma on the mound tonight, I expect another easy win for the home team Friday.
In three of their last five games, Chicago has allowed at least 13 runs. One of those came when tonight's starter Jose Quintana last pitched, although ironically he only allowed an unearned run in his five innings pitched before the bullpen imploded vs. Minnesota. But with an offense that's scored all of seven runs its last four games (just 10 hits the last 2), Quintana's margin for error is rather slim.
This is especially the case going up against Iwakuma, who has allowed two earned runs or less in every start but one since the beginning of July. He has a 2.15 ERA his last seven starts. He allowed only five hits in 7.2 innings pitched his last start, but was a hard luck 1-0 loser vs. Baltimore. But I don't think lack of run support will be an issue today. Case in point, the White Sox have lost four in a row if their opponent scored at least five runs in its last game.
Larry Ness
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners
My guess would be that after spending many an August out of contention, the Seattle Mariners are enjoying being in the thick of the wild card race here in 2014. Seattle scored only 30 runs while going 5-9 at Safeco in July but has outscored Atlanta and Chicago 24-8 while winning its first three home games of August.
Seattle continues its four-game home series with the White Sox in search of a SEVENTH win in its last 10 games. The 60-54 Mariners are just a half-game behind Kansas City for the AL's second wild card spot, while the White Sox (55-61) aren't doing themselves any favors with losses in FIVE of their last six to drop 6 1/2 games behind the Royals.
Friday night's pitching matchup features Chicago's Jose Quintana (6-7, 3.04 ERA) and Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma (9-6, 2.94 ERA). Quintana settled for a no-decision in his last outing, despite allowing one unearned run on five hits in as many innings in a 16-3 loss to Minnesota on Sunday. The no-decision was the SIXTH in his last nine outings. That's hardly news, as Quintana has not factored in the decision in 37 of his 78 career starts. He does own a 1.69 ERA over his last nine outings but he's just 3-0, while the White Sox are only 4-5 in those nine starts.
Hisashi Iwakuma is 4-2 with a 2.15 ERA in his last seven starts, although a first-inning home run by Baltimore's Nick Markakis was the difference in a 1-0 road defeat Sunday in which he lasted 7.2 innings. He deserves to be MUCH better than his 9-6 record (Seattle is only 10-8 in his starts), as he's got a 2.94 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, while posting a 101-11 KW ratio.
Iwakuma is OVERDUE for a win against Chicago, as he lasted eight innings in each of his only two starts against the White Sox, each of which came last year. He allowed three runs and seven hits total while not factoring in the decision of either game that resulted in Mariners losses. Iwakuma does his part and this time around, the Mariners supply some runs.
Jimmy Boyd
Cincinnati Reds -126
The Reds are once again showing great value as a small home favorite. Cincinnati has won 3 straight by a combined score of 21-5 and are 6-2 over their last 8 games overall. The Marlins on the other hand have dropped two straight and are a mere 2-6 in their last 8.
I'll take my chances on the Reds adding to their strong run with Mike Leake on the mound. Leake has a strong 3.32 ERA and 1.167 WHIP over 10 home starts and comes in with a red-hot 2.29 ERA over his last 3 starts. On top of that he's a perfect 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA over 3 career starts against the Marlins. Considering Miami is averaging just 2.7 runs and hitting a mere .195 over their last 7 games, hard to not like Leake to improve to 4-0.
Cincinnati is also a dominant 42-19 in their last 61 home games as a favorite of -125 to -175 and 22-4 in Leake's last 26 home starts against a team who strikes out 7+ times per game.
Adding to this is a strong system on Cincinnati. Favorites with a money line of -110 or higher who are a poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are a sizzling 106-43 over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Reds.
Dennis Macklin
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds -126
The Marlins have lost six of eight and are hitting just .171 as a team and averaging less than three rpg. over the last week. The Reds were in a similar spot this time last week but have gotten their usual great pitching but have raided their average 100 points in their L7 hitting a robust .278 while plating five rpg. Mike Leake does his best work at home and rocks a razor sharp 2.29 ERA over his L3. The Reds look to be worth a look here.
Nick Parsons
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -136
The Orioles took two out of three in Toronto, a series the Jays really needed to win, and have now opened up a five game lead in the AL East. The O's return home tonight against a desperate Cardinal team that turns to the newly acquired Justin Masterson. The former Indian righty has been awful of late, posting a 10.67 ERA despite getting a 9-7 win in his Cardinal debut. Chris Tillman has been rock solid all year and sports a 2.78 ERA in 11 Camden Yard starts and a 2.00 ERA in his L3 overall. Techs are all Baltimore and they get the nod here as the Birds continue their march to the AL East title.
Steve Janus
Dodgers/Brewers Under 8.5
I believe there's a ton of value on the Dodgers and Brewers to finish UNDER tonight's total of 8.5. Los Angeles will be sending out Roberto Hernandez, who is a big time groove on the mound. Hernandez has a 2.18 ERA and 0.871 WHIP over his last 3 starts and not that long ago (July 9) went into Milwaukee and held the Brewers to 1 run on 3 hits over 8 innings of work. Taking the rubber for the Brewers will be Kyle Lohse, who I look to bounce back from a bad start at St Louis. Lohse has a sensational 2.32 ERA and 0.879 WHIP over 9 home starts.
Key Trends/System - UNDER is 14-4 in Lohse's last 18 home games against teams who average 0.9 or less home runs per game and 20-6 in his last 26 starts against an NL team who is averaging 4.3 runs or less in the second half of the season. The UNDER is also 15-7-3 in the Dodgers last 25 road games against a right-handed starter and 21-7 in their last 28 games when listed as an underdog. Add it up and that's a 70-24-3 (74%) system telling us to BET THE UNDER 8.5!
Dave Price
Atlanta Braves +102
The Braves are glad to be home following an 0-8 road trip. They are an impressive 71-34 in their last 105 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. They have also had their way with Washington, winning 24 of the last 33 meetings overall and each of the last four at home. The Nationals have lost seven of 10 with Strasburg on the mound. They have also dropped his last five starts against winning clubs and seven of his 10 versus the Braves. The right-hander is just 1-7 with a 4.68 ERA in 11 road starts this season. Atlanta's Santana is 7-2 with a 3.29 ERA in 10 home starts. The Braves are 4-0 in his last four home starts.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Braves +103
The Atlanta Braves return home highly motivated for a victory Friday. They have lost eight straight to fall 4 1/2 games behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East. They had yesterday off, while the Nationals did not, which will be an advantage for the home team Braves, who are 31-24 in Atlanta this season.
Ervin Santana has been an excellent addition to the rotation this season. The right-hander has gone 10-6 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 21 starts, 7-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in 10 home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in his last three starts overall. He has posted a 3.82 ERA in five career starts against Washington.
Stephen Strasburg has been a little off all season. He has gone 8-9 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in 24 starts, including 1-7 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 11 road starts as he has clearly been at his worst away from home. Strasburg is 0-1 with a 7.15 ERA in his last three starts against the Braves.
Atlanta is 63-26 (+24.5 Units) against the money line in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last three seasons. The Braves are 14-1 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by four runs or more over the last two seasons. Santana is 17-4 (+14.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher in his career.