Jesse Schule
Oakland Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings -3
A lot of people seem to like the Vikings as a dark horse pick this season, but I'm not convinced that this Minnesota team is going to be much better than it was last year. I do however think they could win a few games here in the pre-season, especially with three decent quarterbacks all battling for the starting job.
They open the exhibition season at home against the Raiders, and they couldn't ask for a better opponent. The Vikes have met Oakland four times in previous exhibition games, winning three of the four.
Raiders head coach Dennis Allen has only managed to win twice in eight pre-season games over the last two years.
Matt Cassel will start at quarterback for Minnesota, but Teddy Bridgewater is expected to see his fair share of snaps. Vikings fans have high hopes for the former Louisville pivot, and so far he's earning praise from his coaches:
"He's going to make plays," Turner said. "When he had an opportunity out here, he's made plays. He's made big plays throwing the ball up the field, and he's made big plays checking the ball down."
I think the Vikes will get their rookie coach a "W" in front of an optimistic home crowd tonight.
Jeff Alexander
LA Angels -183
The Angels are showing value with Weaver on the hill, even at this price. The Red Sox are a miserable 3-12 in their last 15 and 14-38 in their last 52 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The Angels are 46-15 in their last 61 versus teams with a losing record and 39-16 in their last 55 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. They are 40-12 in Weaver's last 52 home starts, including 23-5 in his last 28 home starts versus teams with a losing record. The are 38-17 in his last 55 starts as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 29-10 in his last 39 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. The Red Sox are 3-11 in the last 14 meetings and 1-5 in the last 6 road meetings.
Joe D'Amico
Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers
Pick: Buffalo Bills
Carolina finished the regular season last year at 12-4 and had one of the NFL's top offensive and defensive units before getting ousted, 23-10 by San Francisco in the Playoffs. Barring injury, they are a definite Playoff contender again. The only problem is that New Orleans is also in the NFC South. They did go 3-1 both SU and ATS in last season's pre-season play but looking at their depth chart right now, the Panthers backups on both sides of the ball are a bit thin. Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams are solid but will see limited action, if any. This leaves the "O" in the hands of Derek Anderson and Jonathan Stewart, who are capable, but then there is nobody. Buffalo was 6-10 LY after going 2-2 (both SU and ATS) in exhibition play. The bills are slated to win 6 1/2 games and finish at the bottom of the AFC East. They came out in the Hall of Fame game and fell, 17-13 to the Giants. Three fumbles crushed Buffalo on top of the fact that standout WR, Sammy Watkins had no receptions. Watkins will be sure to get more involved tonight while the established QB corps of Manuel, Lewis, Tuel, and Dixon rise up here as well. Lest not forget, the Bills possess one hell of a RB unit in Spiller, Jackson, Dixon, and Brown. Buffalo did beat Carolina, 24-23 in September of last season. Carolina will not jeopardize their key players here. And Buffalo needs this win for their season ticket sales, their fans, and most of all themselves.
MLB Predictions
Houston Astros -115 & -1.5 +175
The Texas Rangers won their final two of their most recent series vs the White Sox, but are just 2-4 in their last 6 overall and 45-69 on the season (24-36 on the road). The Astros have a slightly better record at 47-68 and 26-33 at home, but have lost three straight after winning three straight over the weekend. Tonight's starter for Texas is Miles Mikolas who is 1-4 with a 7.29 ERA, .294 OBA and 1.53 WHIP. He has pitched much better on the road, but overall he has been shaky in his 6 starts. Houston faced him back on July 7th and they scored 9 runs on 12 hits against him in just 3.1 innings. The Astros will send Brett Oberholtzer to the mound who has started to pitch pretty well. He is 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA, .291 OBA and 1.38 WHIP overall on the season, but over his last 8 starts he is 4-1 with a 3.08 ERA and the team has gone 6-2 in those 8 starts. Take note that the Rangers are 14-39 in their last 53 games overall, 6-21 in their last 27 road games, and 4-14 in their last 18 road games as an underdog. They are also 1-5 in Mikolas' last 6 starts. The Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games, 4-0 in Oberholtzer's last 4 starts and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. Houston has won 5 straight vs Texas, with four of those five being by at least 2 runs. I'm taking the Astros to win and also putting a unit on them to win by a couple or more with a nice price on the run line.
San Francisco Giants -114
By all accounts this is a game that is shaping up to be about Madison Bumgarner. I expect him to lock down the Royals in this spot Friday night and the offense should be able to take care of Jason Vargas who seen better days in his career than what he produced in his last start. Vargas has a 3.69 ERA which is fine, but most of his good starts came months ago near the beginning of the season. Vargas has an ERA of 4.76 in his last three games and got destroyed for 7 runs in his last start against the Oakland Athletics. He's been getting hit at home this season, sporting a 4.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. His last start at home against the Angels he gave up 6 runs and 9 hits in only four innings of work. It's really been a lot of the same for Bumgarner this season at home, but he'll be far away from San Fran in Missouri for this contest. It is quite the contrast, a 5.60 ERA at home compared to 1.58 on the road. Also, while Vargas has found trouble in his most recent starts, Bumgarner allowed no runs twice in two of his last three starts, both of those on the road. Outside of one porous start against the A's, Bumgarner has given up more than 2 runs on the road only once, a start that came in Colorado. The Royals have been playing well lately, winners of their last four games, but I feel like Bumgarner and the Giants will bring that to a halt tonight in Kansas City.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Seattle
Pick: Seattle -160
The Seattle Mariners buried the Chicago White Sox last night 13-3. The White Sox are an improved team, but their bullpen is amongst the worst in the league. Outside of Chris Sale, who seems to work deep into games, their pen is exposed on a near nightly basis. Seattle is right in the thick of things for a Wild Card berth, and they have two pitchers at the top of the rotation that can matchup with anyone. Hisashi Iwakuma is 9-6 with an ERA on the season of under 3. He has allowed 2 runs or less in six of his last seven starts, and is pitching well. Chicago has caved in on the road when facing a winning team where they are an ugly 28-66 in their last 94, and 5-13 behind tonight's starter Quintana in that role. The M's are now 18-8 behind Iwakuma vs. a losing club. Back Seattle.
Ian Cameron
Edmonton at Montreal
Play: Edmonton -5
I was debating all week long whether or not to lay nearly a TD with the Edmonton Eskimos against absolutely pathetic Montreal but I don't see any light at the end of what has become a dark tunnel for the Alouettes. West teams are 11-4 ATS in head-to-head meetings against the East this season and there is no doubt Edmonton is the better team – and you could argue they are in the better spot too coming off their bye week and their first loss of the season. Edmonton quarterback Mike Reilly has been much more comfortable in his second year as the starter while their defense has been flat out dominating so far this season which has me shuddering to think of how Montreal's anemic offense will perform. The Alouettes are a train wreck offensively as quarterback Troy Smith was yanked in the second quarter and backup Alex Smith wasn't any better completing 9-of-23 passes with an INT in a brutal 31-5 blowout loss against struggling Toronto. Montreal was coming off a bye too – the perfect spot for them to right the ship but they obviously fell flat. We saw late money rush in on Montreal late Thursday afternoon due to news that Edmonton ruled out WR Fred Stamps and CB Joe Burnett but to me it was an overreaction. The two injury concerns are not enough to sway me off the Edmonton side and in fact, now we are seeing Edmonton laying -5 across the board giving anyone that hasn't bet the Eskimos yet even more value.
Dave Essler
Rangers / Astros Over 8.5
First of all the SP's. Miles has just been awful. The Astros crushed him earlier this season and he failed to make it through the fourth inning. I would expect that he makes some adjustments, but it's going to take a LOT of adjustments for Houston not to get their half here. The only downside is the Astros flying home last night from Philadelphia, which is why I actually lean Rangers a bit here. Mikolas has been better on the road, but for the month of July opposing teams hit .315 against him. Again, even some regression and Houston scores. I had actually been an Oberholtzer fan earlier in the season when not too many teams had seen him, but in the month of July he allowed almost twice as many flyball outs as groundball outs, and given that the Rangers hit LHP that much better, in this park a couple should leave it. The Astros bullpen did the meltdown things last night, which does two things. It probably shatters their confidence as well as uses arms they didn't plan on using with a 5-1 lead. Texas has the day off, but their pen has been shaky all season, and with Mikolas we should see it sooner rather than later. On the year, away from home, they've got a bullpen ERA of 4.66 with ten blown saves. Not good. And being rested, they should put out the A team lineup. The Rangers on the season are 23-9 to the over against LHP. Oberholtzer at home has a 4.56 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP. Just far too many ways both teams get to four, making this a winner. There seems to be a little early money shaded to the under, but shit happens. See yesterday when the really cool money was on the Rockies and we were on the Cubs.
Harry Bondi
BUFFALO (-2) over Carolina
Buffalo's offense could not have looked worse than they did last week in the Hall of fame game against the NY Giants. We expect them them to be much better in their second showing against a Carolina team in it's first pre-season game. Having already played a pre-season game against a team that has not is a big advantage and has cashed at a 50% clip the last 10 years. In addition the Buffalo QB rotation of E. J. Manuel ( up to 20 plays because it is their second game), Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel and Dennis Dixon is far superior to the Panthers Cam Newton ( not expected to play), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard and Joe Webb. Bills prevail in their game two!
Sam Martin
Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Miami comes into Cincinnati limping after dropping six of their last eight games overall, and we'll look for the Marlins losing streak to continue at least one more game tonight. Reds are riding high after winning three in a row against Cleveland - the last two at home - and all three wins came by decisive margins of 7, 5, and 4 runs.
More of the same from the Reds tonight, as they send Mike Leake to the hill who is on fire with just one earned run allowed in his last two starts combined covering 13 2/3 innings of work. And he'll be confident taking the mound tonight knowing he's 3-0 in three career starts vs. Miami with an ERA south of 2.00. Add in Eovaldi's 2-8 TSR away from home and the Reds is the only logical call to make here.
Bruce Marshall
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons
Pick: Miami Dolphins
not really in love with Dolphins but this is a coach squarely on the hot seat (so, for that matter, might be Atlanta's Mike Smith), and those sorts often like to push a bit harder in preseason. Mostly an anti-Falcons vote because Smith has been so low-key about these games, Falcs 1-11 SU in preseason the past three years. Atlanta revamping OL, and "D" retooling as well. One series from Ryan, then Yates and Renfree, not too scary at QB for this game. Reports are tricky at this time of year, but they have been somewhat encouraging from Dolphin camp, OL supposedly improved Tannehill reportedly having a good camp (but did throw too many picks in recent scrimmage), and reports of an aggressive defense have spilled from camp. True, Miami just 1-8 vs. line in preseason for Philbin, so this is a light vote, but no reason for Atlanta to be favored by 3 other than the knee-jerk home team preference.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton/MONTREAL Over 46
It’s no secret that scoring is way down in the CFL and as a result of that over bettors have been getting hit in the head with a lead pipe week after week. Furthermore, the posted totals are also seeing a significant drop and so we’ll look to take advantage of this buy-low opportunity.
Montreal has gone under in four of its five games. Over their past two games, the Als have scored 10 points. In this league, that’s unheard of and it’s not like Montreal doesn’t have weapons. Brandon Whitaker is a beast. He’s one of the most dangerous weapons in the CFL, yet the Alouettes have not been utilizing him the way they should be. The Als are making this game more complicated than it is with some creative play-calling that just isn’t working. After going two weeks without scoring a TD, the Als figure to keep it simple with short passes and many more touches for Whitaker. The Als also brought in ex-CFL and NFL QB Jeff Garcia to work with a couple of other recently hired coaches in Don Matthews and Turk Schonert. Matthews is a Hall of Fame coach and Schonert is a former offensive coordinator in the NFL for the Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints. Schonert has been working with QB’s in the NFL since 1992. Put three great offensive minds together with all that experience, throw in Brandon Whitaker and it’s safe to assume that the Alouettes offense will function at a much higher lever this week and put some points on the board.
Meanwhile, Edmonton has gone under in all five of its games. How can that be with perhaps the best QB in the CFL in Mike Reilly? Between these two teams the under is 8-1 in nine games. Reilly has thrown for over 1100 yards and has a completion % of 64%. He’s thrown for nine TD’s against just four picks. The Als defense has allowed 34, 31, and 41 points against respectively over the past three games. Reilly and the Eskies have had two weeks to prepare and should have little trouble putting up points. There are two “buy-low” opportunities in this game. The Alouettes to win or cover is most certainly a buy-low angle that we considered. However, we see a better buy-low opportunity in playing this one over because it’s very likely that the Als offense comes alive this week. With all that practice time focusing on Montreal’s offense, the Als defense has taken a back seat and Edmonton figures to come in and put up some easy points.
NOTE: We’re passing on the Hamilton/B.C. game. We’re leaning Tiger-Cats but we’re not pulling the trigger because we’re concerned about Hamilton’s “state of mind” after losing three of its last four games by a combined eight points. That could take a psychological toll but if it has not, Hamilton can certainly win this one outright or cover the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas +106 over HOUSTON
The battle of the Lone Star State continues here and there are plenty of reasons to back this very live pooch. First, Texas has underachieved all year. They were supposed to contend for the division but a horrible start along with several key injuries put them far behind the eight ball a month into the season and they never recovered. Now that their season is over, the Rangers could be a very live pooch in the final seven weeks and we’ll put that to the test here. It may surprise you to learn that the Rangers are fifth in the majors against lefties with a solid BA of .272 and they’ll face one here in Brett Oberholtzer. The Rangers outscored the White Sox 19-1 in winning their past two games and one of those victories came against Chris Sale. Furthermore, the Rangers have dropped five straight against the Astros this season while being outscored over that span, 41-18. We can assure you that it is not sitting well with Ron Washington and the rest of the team. Rangers starter, Miles Mikolas is an interesting case. He was mostly a reliever in the minors, and posted excellent numbers in his high-minors seasons (minor-league ERAs of 2.83 in 2012, 2.96 in 2013). He made six starts and 10 relief appearances in Triple-A this year with a fine 38/3 K/BB ratio in 45 IP. Texas has stated this is not a fill-in starter and that he'll be in the rotation for the rest of the year and that they like what they see. Keep an eye on how Mikolas' stuff plays as a ML starter, and given his minor league track record, he's worth following.
Meanwhile, Brett Oberholtzer pitching for the Astros has to be considered one of the biggest risks one can take when betting a favorite. Oberholtzer has a BB/K split of 21/58 in 91 innings. He has a weak groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 32%/21%/47%. Oberholtzer has 10 K’s over his past 27 innings to go along with an xERA of 5.05. He was a fringe prospect before he was called up and the only reason for the recall was because Brad Peacock couldn’t throw strikes and was sent down. Oberholtzer isn’t even considered a #5 starter. That 4.56 ERA at home and (xERA of 5.16) and zero plus skills say stay away, particularly on a team like the Astros that just dropped three in a row to the Phillies and offers up no value as the chalk.
Detroit -1½ +132 over TORONTO
R.A. Dickey is 6-3 at Rogers Center with a 4.26 ERA, which is serviceable but certainly not trustworthy. Dickey is not an enigma. We all know what he brings to the table. Half the time he’ll do well and half the time he won’t make it past the fifth or sixth inning. That said, he has a horrible history against Detroit’s current lineup. In fact, current Tigers have 31 hits in 90 AB’s against Dickey for a combined BA of .344 with an OPS of 1.031! He’s also been taken yard five times and has a lousy BB/K split of 8/12 in those 90 at bats. Throw in Dickey’s declining groundball rate and his propensity for giving up HR’s and this start spells trouble.
The Jays scored one run on Miguel Gonzalez last night. In Houston last weekend, they scored once on Collin McHugh and once on Scott Feldman. In between, against Brett Oberholtzer they managed to squeeze out two runs. They Blue Jays have scored 13 runs over their past six games and five of those came in one game. This team is seeing golf balls and they don’t figure to wake up against Anibal Sanchez. From a psychological standpoint, Toronto is in trouble against Sanchez before a single pitch is thrown. Over his last 14 innings against the Blue Jays, Sanchez has allowed seven hits and two runs. Sanchez missed nearly a month between April and May with a bad blister on his middle finger and as a result his K’s dipped dramatically. It appeared to have altered his grip but that is no longer the case. In his last start, Sanchez walked none and struck out 12. Over his last 13.1 innings, he has a BB/K split of 2/18 with a groundball rate of 57%. Sanchez is back on track and the Blue Jays figure to pay the price.
Cleveland +118 over over N.Y. YANKEES
Yankee waiver wire acquisition Esmil Rogers is saddled with perhaps the worst matchup of the day against Cleveland. The erratic Rogers was relegated to the Blue Jays bullpen in 2014 after a dominant start/disaster start split of 35%/35% (and by subtraction, 30% mediocre) as a starter in 2013. So much for that 2012 skill spike that lasted half a season. The 2013 version looked very similar to his pre-'12 mediocrity, save for an unlucky hr/f that sabotaged him. Rogers has decent command and his groundball rate as a starter suggests some upside in that role but he still hasn't solved lefties, so we can't really trust him there, either. Rogers has not started a game this year while appearing in just 18 games (25 IP) in relief and most of those were in mop up roles in which the Jays either had a big lead or big deficit. Being in no pressure situations, Rogers posted a 5.84 ERA over those 18 relief appearances. That all changes here, as he’s being given a start in the heat of a pennant race in pressure filled New York in front of 50,000+. The Indians hit right-handers well.
Trevor Bauer saw 16 and 17 major league innings, respectively, in '12 and '13 before control issues sent him packing. Called up in late May, Bauer looks to have finally secured a starting gig. Is he up for good this time? He's solved one piece of the puzzle so far by making a concerted effort to improve his control, and has made impressive strides, cutting 2013's 5.7 BB/9 almost in half. His K rate has rebounded close to the elite levels he posted in Triple-A and he's touching 95 mph regularly on the radar gun. However, he's not inducing the swinging strikes one might expect given his velocity, suggesting hitters still aren't convinced he can command the plate. While the bump in line-drives allowed is concerning, Bauer's hard hit% isn't outrageously high. If he can turn those line-drives into groundballs (and he’s damn close) in the second half, good things will happen. At 23, Bauer has already taken his lumps in the majors and looks to be making the requisite adjustments to survive and potentially thrive at the major league level. What's more, four of his past five starts have been of the pure quality variety so it's quite possible he's begun to hit his stride. Walks and pitch count will continue to be a concern, but there's something interesting brewing here. A true breakout in the second half wouldn't surprise us at all. Bauer a dog against Rogers is a play we’d make 100% of the time.
Ross Benjamin
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -133
I have to scratch my head as to why the Cardinals coveted Justin Masterson so much at the trade deadline. He's now gone 0-4 in his last 4 against the money with a atrocious 10.80 ERA and monster 2.67 WHIP. In his 1-start versus Baltimore this season as a member of the Cleveland Indians he was shelled for 5 earned runs and 8-hits in just 5 2/3 innings of work. Contrarily, the Orioles starter Chris Tillman has displayed superb form over his last 3-starts posting a 2.00 ERA and 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio.
Any American League team that's hitting .265 or less on the season, and has a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or less, versus a National League opponent with a starting pitcher who has an ERA of 5.20 to 5.70, has gone 45-17 (72.6%) since the start of the 1997 season.
Scott Delaney
My free winner tonight is in exhibition football, as I like the Oakland Raiders against the Minnesota Vikings. The line is a flat field goal, and during the regular season I will have you buying half points up or down on this line. This being preseason, I'll leave that up to you for now, but you might as well get used to the format.
For the preseason, much of the time, you'll hear me refer to the quarterback rotations a lot, as they make a big deal the first couple weeks. And I think Oakland has a much better rotation than Minnesota in my eyes, as the Raiders have Matt Schaub, Derek Carr, Matt McGloin and Trent Edwards.
Those first two names are pretty big names, you have to admit. They alone could light up the friendly skies, and the Raiders have plenty to prove immediately, including Carr, who is looking to get his career going as soon as coach Dennis Allen decides Schaub is done for the night. I've seen Carr play, and he's a guy who can take charge. He won't let up for every minute he's in the game and he'll command the offense just like he did while he was with Fresno State.
And speaking of Schaub, he will be the 18th different quarterback to start a game for the Raiders over the past 12 years, so there's something to prove here as well.
As for Minnesota, the storyline is surrounding Teddy Bridgewater, and I'm not sold on him in the NFL - yet. My mind can be changed, but I really don't know if he's ready just yet. His decision making to me needs work, especially at the pro level. I know he's currently listed third on the depth chart, but he is most certainly the most anticipated quarterback taking the field at TCF Stadium.
5♦ OAKLAND
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Detroit Tigers over the Toronto Blue Jays in American League action.
The Tigers don't care so much that they're still on the road as much as they care about being out of New York! Despite having an advantage over the Bombers over the last few years, they dropped three of four (and could have been all four) and were out-pitched by a patchwork staff... and that never seems to happen to Detroit.
Anibal Sanchez takes the hill for the Tigers as the only pitcher not to face the Yankees in their most recent series. He recorded a season-high 12 Ks while allowing just two hits over seven innings of scoreless baseball in a 4-0 win.
He was recently in a funky stretch of allowing at least four runs per game until this last game and it appears he figured out what was ailing him. He's pitched well against Toronto but didn't get any run support in his last outing and failed to record a decision despite pitching brilliantly.
R.A. Dickey (9-11, 4.03 ERA) counters for the Blue Jays and comes in off of a sub-par performance vs. Houston in which he allowed five runs on nine hits in an 8-2 loss. He's won only three of his last 11 starts because when he pitches the Blue Jays forget how to hit. He has the worst run support of any pitcher on the team and that will come back to haunt him again tonight.
Take the Tigers as your free play of the day.
3♦ DETROIT