Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Atlanta Braves to finally end their losing skid.
Atlanta lost all 8 games played on their west coast swing, and now they come home faced with a must-win series against their division-rivals, the Washington Nationals.
The Nats have won their last pair, and 4 of their last 6 to take over first place in the N.L. East over the sliding Bravos, but Washington has not proven that they can consistently win against Atlanta, so look for the Braves to snap their skid tonight at 8 games.
Atlanta has won 7 of the last 10 season series meetings, and they have also won 7 of the last 8 series meetings at Turner Field against Washington.
It will be Stephen Strasburg and Ervin Santana to the hill. Santana is 2-0 with an ERA just over 1 in his last 3 starts, and he is the owner of the Braves last win back on Sunday, July 28th.
Strasburg has pitched well lately, but the Braves have had his number getting to him for 10 runs in 10-plus innings of work, and have tagged him with a pair of losses in as many starts.
Braves end the bleeding tonight.
3♦ ATLANTA
Gabriel Dupon
I like the Royals tonight, as I think this line is off a bit considering their momentum and should carry over nicely into this one against the Giants.
The SMART INTANGIBLE with the Royals - Momentum. Kansas City comes in on a four-game win streak, and has won seven of 10 after sweeping the Diamondbacks in Phoenix.
The SMART INTANGIBLE working against the Giants - Road Woes. The Giants arrive after losing yesterday's matinee contest in Milwaukee, 3-1. The Giants have split their last 10 games overall, and aren't necessarily playing all that well to be visiting a surging Royals team.
In conclusion, why Kansas City is my SMART PLAY in this game - Though I know the Giants are handing the ball to left-hander Madison Bumgarner, who has never faced the Royals, and I know he ranks among the NL leaders with a 1.58 road ERA this year, I don't trust his past against the American League. Bumgarner is 4-4 with a 4.41 ERA in 10 career Interleague starts.
Meanwhile, the Royals are in a good spot to capitalize on their win streak and momentum, while the Tigers are reeling from their series loss to the Yankees. Kansas City is just 2.5 games back of Detroit, and it conceivably could end up in first place by the end of the weekend by keeping the winning run alive.
4♦ KANSAS CITY
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on the New York Yankees over the Cleveland Indians.
Cleveland has lost three straight and now travels into the Evil Empire to take on the Yankees, and I think this is a good weekend for the pinstripes to gain some needed momentum. They continue their grind in the American League East, as they're five games back of first-place Baltimore.
New York should feel good about itself after a series win over American League Central-leading Detroit, including Thursday's 1-0 win. The Yankees have won two straight and six of eight.
Cleveland, which was humiliated in the Ohio Cup against the Cincinnati Reds to start this week, is a horrendous 23-36 on the road this season, so this is a real bad spot and bad time to be headed to the Bronx.
Take the Yankees here.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Brad Wilton
Going to back the Mariners on the Run Line tonight as they host the White Sox fresh off last night's 13-3 romp.
Chicago's pitching has been mostly invisible over their last 7 games, as they are allowing 9.5 runs per game in that stretch, surrendering a whopping 67 runs!
With Hishashi Iwakuma on 4-2 run with a 2.15 ERA his last 7 starts, it isn't hard to imagine Iwakuma simply shutting down the Pale Hose, and watching his team score another bushelful of runs against the bleagured Sox staff.
Seattle has won 3 straight, Chicago as lost 3 straight. Better make that 4 in a row on the winning side for the M's, and 4 in a row on the losing side for the Sox, this one again by 2 runs or more.
4♦ SEATTLE
Nelly
Giants / Royals Over 7
The Royals are back to within 2.5 games of the Tigers in the AL Central with wins in seven of the last eight games. Kansas City has scored at least four runs in each of the last four games as the offense has picked up the pace despite some inconsistency this season. Over the last 10 games Kansas City is scoring 4.4 runs per game and the numbers vs. left-handers in that span have been incredible, batting .358 with 8.5 runs scored per nine innings. Madison Bumgarner is certainly one of the better pitchers in the NL and while he is coming off a complete game shutout in his last start, he has allowed four or more runs in six of his last 10 outings. He has great numbers on the road this season as he has oddly struggled at home but this is not a venue he has ever pitched in as his comfort level may not be as high. Over eight runs per game have been scored at Kauffman Stadium this season and the Royals have fared well in interleague play this season, going 11-4. San Francisco will face Jason Vargas in just his second start back from nearly a month on the DL. Vargas allowed seven runs in just over four innings last week in his first start back n action and he has not pitched well at home this season. In Kansas City Vargas owns a 4.77 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP. The Kansas City bullpen also owns terrible numbers at home this season and wit a very low number on today's game the 'over' looks promising.
BONES BEST BETS
ANGELS -1 -137
Very similar to last night’s big bet on Wainwright and the Cardinals – this is a bet we are laying tonight with extreme confidence. These -1 bets are one of our favorite betting options in all sports. Weaver at home is a force (2.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and the Angels are the 2nd best home team in the league at 38-21. The Angels will jump all over Allen Webster early and often tonight in what has blowout written all over it.
DODGERS ML +139
Pitching matchup isn’t the greatest but the Dodgers should not be +139. Hernandez has given up 4 ER in 2 starts against the Brewers this season and owns a solid 0.87 WHIP and 2.18 ERA over his last 3 starts. Additionally the Dodgers have won 3 straight over a very tough Angels team.
NATIONALS @ BRAVES OVER 6.5 -120
The Nationals scored 4 runs in their only meeting against Santana this year. The Braves have faced Strasburg 2 times this year and they scored 6 runs in each of those games. The Nationals have been swinging hot bats scoring 12 runs their last 2 games and at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 11 games. When Strasburg and Santana pitch this year their teams are a combine 24-16 o/u. Strasburg has a 4.68 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the road this year in 65 innings pitched. There is a lot of value in this over and we just need 3 runs from each team. On the year both teams average over 4 runs scored and 4 runs against when these pitchers start.
GIANTS @ ROYALS F5 UNDER 4 -135
Two hot pitchers here tonight and both clubs playing well. We expect a duo here between Madison Bumgarner, who is 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA and Jason Vargas, who is 8-5 with a 3.69 ERA. KC has allowed three or less runs in eight of their last nine games, and the Giants are averaging under 3 runs per their last 4. Pay the juice to get this to 4 and we should be good.
Andre Gomes
Philadelphia Phillies -102
This is a rematch from a game played almost two weeks ago in which we cashed a big play w/ NYM and B. Colon. The Primary angle for that game was the potential letdown spot for Burnett:
“Burnett is coming from an outstanding performance against the Giants in his last in which he held SFG scoreless for 8IP’s! The problem was that he made 131 (!) pitches! With “just” 4 days off, I expect him to tire and struggle a bit tonight.
I’ve made a research this season when Burnett’s throw +110 pitches, what happened in the following start?
113 vs. LAA, 05/14, next start -> 05/20 @MIA 3ER’s allowed w/ 5.40 ERA & 4.13 FIP
116 vs. NYM 05/30, next start -> 06/04 @WAS 8ER’s allowed w/ 12.00 ERA & 6.30 FIP
111 @STL 06/20, next start -> 06/25 vs. MIA 3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 2.13 FIP
116 @MIA 07/01, next start -> 07/06 @PIT 3ER’s allowed w/ 3.86 ERA & 1.99 FIP
He didn’t fare well in those games…”
Well, Burnett was pounded as he allowed 7ER’s in just 5.0IP’s! Then in the next start he was ejected @WAS and threw only 51 pitches, so unlike his last start vs. NYM, we can expect him to be “fresh” and ready to go.
On the other end, we won that play w/ Colon as he allowed just 1 ER in 7.2 IP’s. However, note that PHI had 10 hits against him! They simply weren’t clutch! PHI is coming from a nice 3-games sweep vs. HOU, while the Mets had to play a 12-innings game yesterday @WAS, so PHI is also having a “spot” advantage in here as well.
OC Dooley
White Sox +150
The “intangible” surrounds last night’s 13-3 loss by the White Sox who not only have major revenge, they are also incensed as star rookie Jose Abreu (major league homerun leader) was HIT BY A PITCH twice in Thursday’s opener of the weekend series. When looking at this pitching matchup it would appear that Seattle has a sizeable advantage as Hasashi Iwakuma has some of the game’s best statistics since the middle of June. However Chicago’s Jose Quintana very quietly has been effective holding the opposition to “three or less” earned runs in each of the past nine starts where his ERA in that lengthy span (1.69) has been sensational. Even though the team was dominated last night it should be pointed out that in each of the most recent “series” on the ROAD the offense of the White Sox has a per-game average (6.3) that is eye opening. Thus all Quintana needs is a little bit of run support especially considering that in an earlier start this campaign he handcuffed the Mariners attack to the tune of 10 strikeouts