Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, August 9

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Milwaukee at Seattle
The Brewers look to build on their 7-0 record in Kyle Lohse's last 7 starts against a team with a losing record. Milwaukee is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105)

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lannan) 14.161; Washington (Haren) 15.748
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-165); Under

Game 903-904: San Diego at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 15.036; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.205
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+140); Over

Game 905-906: Miami at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Turner) 15.209; Atlanta (Beachy) 16.925
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-200); Over

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Rusin) 15.558; St. Louis (Lynn) 14.531
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+170); Under

Game 909-910: Pittsburgh at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.807; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.241
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Under

Game 911-912: NY Mets at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 15.041; Arizona (Corbin) 16.605
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-180); Over

Game 913-914: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 15.556; White Sox (Danks) 14.666
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 915-916: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hendriks) 14.234; White Sox (Leesman) 15.783
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Oakland at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Parker) 16.490; Toronto (Rogers) 14.961
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-130); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.631; Cleveland (Kazmir) 15.777
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+100); Under

Game 921-922: Detroit at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 18.379; NY Yankees (Nova) 14.593
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Over

Game 923-924: Boston at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Peavy) 15.664; Kansas City (Santana) 16.799
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-105); Under

Game 925-926: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Garza) 16.801; Houston (Bedard) 14.019
Dunkel Line: Texas by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Texas (-185); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-185); Under

Game 927-928: Milwaukee at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.418; Seattle (Saunders) 14.498
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Over

Game 929-930: Tampa Bay at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.535; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 16.015
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under

Game 931-932: Baltimore at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.637; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.703
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+110); Over

Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cardinals / Packers Over 34.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I am not going to have large thoughts on this play as it is pretty cut and dry and is more of a Database Play than anything else. I do know that the Coach of the Packers loves to show off the offense and try out lot's of offensive formations during pre-season. He also likes to preserve his defense, meaning that the 1st and 2nd teams do not get a lot of work. Actually a number of squads do this in the early going as there is no reason to strut their stuff this early. AZ has a pretty good QB Rotation and is not expected to play the frontline D players that much either. This team played OVER their 1st 3 last year following the HOF Game with 44, 58, and 59 points in those games. The Pack is 16-8 OVER in recent years during the games that don't matter. This one is worth a shot and especially with the number of 34.5 which is below the key 35. A part of me would like to wait and see and perhaps get 34 but I don't think that it is going there.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle MarinersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Milwaukee BrewersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Brew Crew sends the steady serves of Kyle Lohse up against James Saunders and the Mariners in Seattle Friday evening, Milwaukee will do so knowing Lohse is 6-1 with a 2.40 ERA in his last seven overall team starts. On the other side of the coin, Saunders enters with a sloppy 6.89 ERA in his last three starts and is just 1-2 with a 5.25 ERA at home in his career team starts against Milwaukee. Back the better arm here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mets vs. DiamondbacksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jeremy Hefner (4-8, 4.23 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Hefner is coming off a no-decision vs. the Royals on Saturday, giving up three runs over six innings, scattering eight hits and walking no one while striking out six in the quality outing. Hefner will take his respectable 3-3, 3.93 ERA road record into Arizona to throw opposite Patrick Corbin (12-3, 2.33 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off eight hits with two walks while striking out six in his team's eventual 5-2 loss to the Red Sox on Saturday. Corbin though has a big opportunity to return to the winners circle vs. the soft-hitting Mets and improve upon his stellar 8-1, 1.50 ERA home record. These teams played a four-game set in New York in July and each contest flew above the posted number. But "recent performance" plays a part in my handicapping repertoire and each of these competent starters comes into this contest with momentum; with the shift in venue, I believe all signs point to a lower-scoring pitchers duel this time around. Consider a second look at the "under" in this matchup.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland IndiansSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cleveland IndiansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indians are off a tough series vs Division leading Detroit and were swept. Now they have the LA. Angels coming in as they try and snap a 4 game losing streak. Our Big system is based on this premise as we play on home favorites that are off a home loss by 2 or more runs, if they scored 4 or less runs and are taking on an opponent like the Angels that are off a home dog blowout loss by 5 or more runs, which came at the hands of Texas 10-3. In a battle of home losers the home teams come out on top having won 17 of 20 the past 10 seasons. The Angles will face lefty S. Kazmir and they have lost the last 5 on the road vs leftys. The Indians have won 7 of 9 at home when KaZmir starts and he has been solid of late with a 1.89 era in his last 3 starts. He will oppose J. Weaver tonight and he is just 2-4 on the road with an uncharacteristic 3.96 road era. Look for Cleveland to break through on Weaver and emerge with a win.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Red Sox at Kansas City RoyalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jake Peavy put a lot of emotion into his last start, a win for his new team in his first start with Boston. Now he heads out on the road against Kansas City, a team he is 5-7 with a 4.60 ERA against. The Red Sox are 17-35 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Royals are 13-3 in their last 16 overall and have Ervin Santana going, 8-6 with a 2.97 ERA. His last three starts: 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA! Santana is 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA over his last four starts and 4-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 11 starts at home this season.

Bryan Leonard

Kansas City Royals +100

Ervin Santana will try to help the surging Royals continue their good play when he gets the ball against Jake Peavy and the Red Sox. Santana has thrown 11 quality starts over his last 12 outings and sports a very nice 2.71 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home. Santana is one of the more vocal players on the Royals team and their latest surge has certainly given him an extra boost, especially after the team chose not to trade him. He has allowed just six runs, four earned, over his last 28.1 innings.

Jake Peavy has had his struggles against the Royals since he joined the White Sox in 2009. Over 70 innings, Peavy has a 4.50 ERA against the Royals. Peavy's ground ball rate has dropped for the fifth straight year, and fly balls are a problem at Kauffman Stadium with its spacious gaps and deep corners. Not coincidentally, Peavy owns a 5.80 ERA and a .327 batting average against in six career starts at Kauffman Stadium. It's a small sample size, but it makes sense because of Peavy's trends.

The Royals are playing with a lot of confidence right now and have an advantage in the starting pitcher matchup and also with the bullpens. As a home dog, they're definitely a good value.

Alex Smart

Texas Rangers -1½ -110

The Silver Boot series makes a stop deep on the heart of Texas this weekend as the lowly Astros host the red hot Rangers.The Rangers have accumulated a 7-2 record vs Houston this season , and have won five straight at Minute Maid Park since losing the season opener. Garza the Rangers starter tonight owns a 1-1 record along with a stingy 2.82 ERA in three starts since joining the Rangers.Garza also owns a stable 3.88 ERA in seven starts against Houston in his career Meanwhile/Bedard his Astros pitching opponent is 0-5 with a 3.97 ERA in his last six starts . I know he has pitched decent ball, this season, but I myself always get the feeling he going to implode and tire at any time, especially here late in the campaign where his surgically repaired shoulder will start to show some wear and tear. I know the Rangers offense, can sputter some times. But against a Houston side that is the easiest team to score on in the league( 5.3 runs per game,) and also third lowest scoring team in the league at 3.8 runs per game that the Rangers have an advantage tonight and in this series.

Jesse Schule

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Pick: Miami Marlins

The Fish are coming off a three game sweep at the hands of the Pirates, but all three of those losses were in close, low scoring ballgames, two of which were decided by a single run. Miami is 3-4 in it's last seven on the road, but only once have the Marlins lost by more than one run. They face a stiff challenge tonight in Atlanta, as the Braves have won 13 straight. Jacob Turner will toe the rubber for the visitors, and he's winless in his last four starts. Turner (3-3, 2.68 ERA) has pitched well during that span, and he's turned in three straight quality starts. A lack of run support saw the Fish lose all three of those games by a margin of just one run. He allowed two runs on four hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the Braves on July 10, and that was the last time he earned a "W". The Braves hand the ball to 26 year old Brandon Beachy, who is still in search of his first major league win this year. Beachy allowed four runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings, not factoring in the decision in a 5-4 win over the Phillies his last time out. Prior to that he was rocked for seven runs on eight hits over just 3 2/3 innings in a no decision, in another game the Braves would come back and win by a single run. With the Braves coming off a big sweep of division rivals Washington, they are due for a let down against the last place Marlins. If there is ever a time to let up, this would be it. Miami has a chance to catch the Braves by surprise, and with a favorable pitching matchup, I expect to see them keep it close in the series opener.

Bruce Marshall

Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants
Pick; San Francisco Giants

We have been picking our spots very carefully with San Francisco over the past six weeks, seldom looking to go with the Giants as they have faded from the NL West race. And going against Orioles ace Chris Tillman and his 14-3 record would not seem to be the sort of spot to back San Francisco, either. But Tillman has been getting uncommon run support as he has won 10 of his last 11 starts, and we're not sure that is going to be the case tonight against Giants starter Ryan Vogelsong, who returns from a near three-month stint on the DL from a fractured hand but has been superb in rehab assignments, posting a 1.72 ERA over 15 2/3 innings in four appearances; manager Bruce Bochy says Vogelsong could throw up to 100 pitches tonight. The San Francisco offense did show signs of life in Thursday's 4-1 victory over Milwaukee when hitting their first homer in when Brandon Belt drove in three with his first-inning shot.

Freddy Wills

Tampa Bay -119

David Price takes the mound with good odds ont he road where he's been great over the course of his career. Price has a 1.07 ERA and a 0.47 WHIP over his last three games combined and he'll face a Dodgers team that I believe is going to have some issues against quality pitchers especially lefties without Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp in the lineup. Price in 49 AB against him has held Dodgers hitters to a .570 OPS over his career and the Dodgers are just 12-30 in their last 42 inter league games against LHP. The Rays on the other hand have been scorching vs. LHP all season long.

They will face Chris Capuano who is coming off back to back quality starts, but now he faces the Rays who are 2nd in OPS vs. LHP on the year and are an amazing 39-18 in their last 57 vs. LH starters. They are one of a few teams averaging over 5 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road and Chris Capuano is struggling with a 5.56 ERA at home and a 6.08 ERA at night. Really the only advantage the Dodgers have in this game Friday night is their bullpen, but the Rays are off a day off unlike the Dodgers and they have Price on the hill so the bullpen probably won't play a huge factor.

Hot Pitchers
Matt Garza (2-1, 22.1 IP, 0.99 WHIP, 2.82 ERA)
Erik Bedard (0-3, 17.2 IP, 0.98 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)
Dan Haren 2-1, 19 IP, 0.84 WHIP, 2.84 ERA)
Jerred Weaver (2-1, 22.2 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 1.59 ERA)
Scott Kazmir (3-0, 19 IP, 0.84 WHIP, 1.89 ERA)
Lance Lynn (2-1, 21 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Rick Porcello (3-0, 20.1 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 1.74 ERA)
Ivan Nova (1-2, 21 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Francisco Liriano (3-0, 21.2 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 0.42 ERA)
Patrick Corbin (1-2, 20 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 2.25 ERA)
Ervin Santana (3-0, 21 IP, 1.05 WHIP, 1.71 ERA)
Kyle Lohse (3-0, 18 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 1.50 ERA)
Chris Capuano (3-0, 17.1 IP, 1.04 WHIP, 2.60 ERA)

Cold Pitchers
Kyle Gibson (2-1, 14 IP, 1.71 WHIP, 7.07 ERA)
Esmil Rogers (0-3, 16.1 IP, 2.14 WHIP, 8.27 ERA)
Jeremy Hefner (1-2, 15.2 IP, 1.53 WHIP, 6.32 ERA)
Joe Saunders (1-2, 15.2 IP, 2.04 WHIP, 6.89 ERA)
Ryan Vogelsong (1-2, 11.1 IP, 1.94 WHIP, 7.15 ERA)

Andrew Lange

Baltimore at San Francisco
Play: Baltimore

Look everyone, Ryan Vogelsong is back! There aren't a lot of pitchers I bet against no matter what the matchup but Vogelsong is one of them. Back after rehabbing a broken hand, he steps right in to face one of the American League's better offenses. He's likely rested and ready but I'm going to force him and the Giants to beat me – at least twice – before I quit on this fade. I'm not in love with Baltimore's Chris Tillman but he's in a far more ideal situation tonight in San Francisco as oppose to at home vs. an AL East squad. He's got some pretty strong splits which are obviously better on the road (3.23 ERA, 2.71 K/BB, .713 OPS, 5 HRs). The Orioles just swept San Diego and play their next nine against the NL West (no LA Dodgers). At 5.5 games back in the AL East, this is an excellent chance to close the gap. Locked in on the road favorite tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Red Sox/Royals Over 7½

Both of these teams are rolling offensively. Boston has a .280 team batting average against right-handed starters this season and they are scoring 5.4 runs per game in those matchups. The Royals have averaged 5.0 runs per game over their past seven games on a .263 batting average.

Jake Peavy has a 6.10 ERA when pitching on the road and I expect to see him give up a few early runs. Kansas City is a great place to hit home runs and Ervin Santana has a problem with giving them up. In his 11 home starts this year he has allowed 13 home runs. The over is 5-1 in Boston's last six games against a right-handed starter so do not expect Santana to match his season averages tonight.

Jordan Haimowitz

Patriots vs. Eagles
Play: Under 42

New England has had a nightmare off season while the Eagles have had the same. The Pats have lost just about every offensive weapon and sport little depth. Philly lost a big wide receiver and the Riley Cooper incident didn't help anything. Expect very little offense in this one. Head Coach Bill Belichik will be focusing on defensive efficiency tonight while Chip Kelly will have his hands full adapting to the NFL early on.