Bob Balfe
Jets/Lions Over 36.5
Here we go. 24 hours ago I talked about how playing preseason totals was not the smartest thing to do. I just think in this game we will see a QB battle from Sanchez and Smith and you have to assume the Jets are playing to score because they need serious offensive help. The Lions have so much firepower on offense that come the second half I see their backups cleaning up. This is not a Jets Defense that scares many anymore and we all know the Lions are average at best on that side of the ball. Look for points tonight. Take the Over.
Saints -3 over Chiefs
Right off the bat the Saints have the advantage just on this playing surface. Andy Reid never cared about preseason and I don't know if he is the right fit for this team because he is pass happy. Jaamal Charles is the only RB that is worthy on this team and with his carries going down this team is now the Eagles of the AFC, so predictable. Not a good things when you are not a good football team. Kansas City does not have a ton of depth and I really like the Saints roster as far as 1st, 2nd, 3rd stringers go. Take New Orleans.
Mariners -130 over Brewers
The Brewers are not a great road team and can't hit left handed pitching. Seattle is actually hitting the ball pretty well right now which is refreshing for fans who suffered years of 2-3 run games every single night. Take the Mariners
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
The simulator shows a high probability that the Rockies will not be nice hosts to the MLB best-record Pirates. Pirates have won five straight and taken a 4-game lead in the NL Central Division. Colorado has lost 5 straight and have essentially played themselves out of contention in the NL West division. However, this is a game where the line is off by a significant amount because of the facts I just mentioned. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 12-75 mark for 62% winners and has made 51 units/unit wagered since 1997. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) that is an average hitting team batting .255 to .269 and with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games and is now facing a good starting pitcher posting an ERA <=3.70. Colorado Rockie starter is a perfect 8-0 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
Fezzik
Carolina -2.5
Off a disappointing 2012 season, look for Carolina to make a statement here, against a Bears team learning new systems. Carolina's rush attack should work well vs. the Bears D, jump on this before it goes to 3.
Doug Upstone
Kansas City Royals +100
At this point in the season, numbers rarely lie. Edwin Santana has an ERA which is over ONE run below Jake Peavy and is at home. Kansas City has played .800 baseball since the All-Star break. Play the Royals Friday night. Good luck.
Jack Jones
Oakland A's -111
After losing six of their last seven games overall, the Oakland A's have dropped into a first-place tie with Texas in the AL West. Needless to say, they'll be highly motivated for a victory heading into Game 1 of this series with Toronto Friday.
I like their chances of getting back on track with Jarrod Parker on the mound. The right-hander has gone 7-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Parker has been at his best on the road, going 3-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.
Esmil Rogers is getting too much respect from the books tonight. The right-hander has gone 3-6 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.473 WHIP in 12 starts and 24 relief appearances. Rogers is 1-1 with a 5.08 ERA in five home starts, and 0-2 with a 7.16 ERA in his last three starts overall.
In his lone career start against Toronto, Parker gave up two earned runs over seven innings for a 2.57 ERA. Rogers was rocked in his lone career start against Oakland on July 29 of this year, giving up eight runs, six earned, over 4 1/3 innings for a 12.47 ERA. Bet the A's Friday.
Joe D'Amico
Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants
Pick: Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore is the only team in the AL East coming off a victory. As a matter of fact, the Orioles have won the L2 by a combined, 14-4. The Birds are just 1 1/2 GB of the WC and only 5 1/2 GB of Boston and Tampa Bay in their Division. The O's offense ranks 1st in HRs (152), and 4th in both Team BA (.266) and RPG (4.75). Chris Tillman takes the mound today. The RH is 14-3 on the season winning four straight outings. He faces the NL West's worst team in San Francisco. The Giants are 57-63, losing 17 of their L24 at home. Outside of Team BA, the team ranks in the bottom third in just about every offensive category. They can hit the ball but just can't drive in runs. This has been an issue all season long. Ryan Vogelsong makes his first start since breaking his right pinkie finger back on May 20th. The RH is in over his head today. The Oriole's are 22-7 I Tillman's L29 starts, 7-3 their L10 games played on the road, and 7-0 their L7 during Game 1 of a series. The Giants are 13-27 their L40 overall, 2-9 their L11 games played at home, and 6-15 their L21 games played during Game 1 of a series.
Wunderdog
Oakland at Toronto
Pick: Toronto +107
Things can change quickly in sports, and we have seen that first hand in the suddenly competitive AL West. The Oakland A's opened a comfortable six-game lead only to see it completely vanish in a week's time, as they have lost six of their last seven. Texas caught fire to even things up. The Oakland offense has gone stone cold as they have produced a grand total of 15 runs on their way to a 1-6 mark in their last seven games. The A's have also dropped four straight following an off day. Toronto looks to stay perfect coming home off a long seven day or longer road trip, where they are 7-0 in their last seven at home. Toronto is 15-7 in their last 22 vs. the AL West, including 4-1 vs. Oakland. Play this one on Toronto.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Kansas City/ New Orleans Over 36.5: Yes New Orleans is 6-1 to the Under in their last 7 Week 1 preseason games, but I see this as a different situation. Last year Sean Payton was suspended for the whole year and you can bet that he just can't wait to get back on the field and call some plays and lightup the score board. Brees probably won't play that much but still that wont stop Sean from being aggressive the rest of the game. on the other side we have Andy Reid taking over in KC and he is an offensive minded coach as well and Im sure he will be looking to put some points on the board to give this floundering KC some confidence right from the start. Big game for both coaches and I expect them both to look to put plenty of points on the board in this one.
Miami -1 over Jacksonville: The Jaguars may just be the worst team in the NFL this year and I expect them to look that way even in the Pre-Season. Jacksonville went 2-14 last year and yet could still only parlay that into a very average draft. The also were very quiet on offense in free Agency signings, and did get rid of a ton of players from last year. They have just 40.9 % of their rushing back from a year ago and 67% of their receiving yards back. The Jags put up just 16 ppg last year and did very, very little to help out the offense, other than drafting OT Joekel. This team will struggle to score big time this year. Miami Upgraded their offense with WR signing Mike Wallace, who should be playing in this one and their OL should be much better with the drafting of Dallas Thomas. Defensively the Dolphines have the edge as well and they did play very well last week vs a much better offense than they will face tonight. Miami clearly outplayed the Cowboys last week but they lost the game and that now makes Joe Philbin 0-5 SU & ATS in his 5 career preseason games with the Fish. Well that trend should stop tonight as the Dolphins bounceback from last weeks tough lossvs a Jags team that will not win more than 4 games all year, including preseason.
SPORTS WAGERS
CLEVELAND -113 over L.A. Angels
The Angels have lost four in a row and they’re now 13 games out. Against lefties this season, L.A. is batting .239 and has 10 wins in 29 decisions. They face a tough one here in Scott Kazmir. Kazmir has not been taken yard in five straight games. Over that span he has a 1.72 ERA to go along with an elite WHIP of 0.89. Kazmir’s groundball rate is also trending the right way and is now up from 44% to 51% over his past 10 starts. Current Angels have just five hits in 27 AB’s against Kazmir for a BA of .185. The Indians are coming off some tough losses against the Tigers but they are still very much in this thing, as they sit just three games back in the Wild Card race.
Jered Weaver went 20-5 last season and he’s 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts. Weaver is the reason that the Indians are such a short price here because on paper, Weaver looks like rather appealing taking back a price. Don’t believe any of it, as it is all an illusion that is about to come crashing down. Weaver is one of the rare pitchers that have been able to stave off lucky hit and strand percentages over his career and this season is no different. He comes in with a high and very lucky 82% strand rate over his past five starts. Weaver’s margin for error keeps getting smaller and smaller. His fastball velocity has dipped to even new lows. His FB velocity trend by season over the last four years: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.6. Weaver will have a much harder time inducing soft contact with a mid-80s fastball. He also has one of the worst groundball/fly-ball splits among AL starters at 33%/43%. Most people think that Weaver is an ace but we’re here to tell you he is not. His skills rank among the least appealing in the majors and it’s only a matter of time before we see a string of implosions from him and people will wonder why. The answers are above. Jered Weaver is not even an average pitcher anymore and he’s about to pay the price.
TORONTO +103 over Oakland
Esmil Rogers has been struggling lately and the Blue Jays have dropped his last four starts but there are some things to like in his profile that include an increasing groundball rate that is up to 54% over his last five starts and 23 K’s over his last 27 innings. Rogers’ xERA over that time period is 4.00. However, this one is not about wagering on Esmil Rogers as much as it is about fading the overvalued A’s as road chalk.
The Blue Jays have won three of four and just scored 17 runs in a three-game series in Seattle. It would take Oakland a month to score 17 runs in Seattle. The Blue Jays have several hot hitters in a batting line-up that is vastly superior to the A’s line-up. Oakland has lost six of seven. Over that span they scored more than four runs just one time and have scored three runs or fewer in five of those. Over the past month, the A’s .199 batting average is the worst mark in the majors. Despite a 3.73 ERA over his last five starts, Jarrod Parker has actually seen his skills flounder lately with poor command and a 4.88 xERA over that time frame. Parker’s strikeout rate is declining and another problem has been that batters are squaring up his pitches when they do hit them. They have a .640 SLG % against his four-seam fastball, a .632 SLG% against his sinker, and a .478 SLG% against his slider. Those are some alarming numbers, The Rogers Center in Toronto is an extreme hitter’s park that enhances HR’s by 24% compared to other parks. Jarrod Parker’s groundball/fly-ball profile of 36%/41% is not likely to play well here. Parker is actually laboring worse than Rogers, the A’s are also laboring and Oakland is wrongly billed as the favorite here.
SPORTS WAGERS
DETROIT -3½ over N.Y. Jets
The season hasn’t even begun yet and New York Jets general manager John Idzik is hoping QB Geno Smith wins the starting quarterback job. That has to make Mark Sanchez feel all warm and fuzzy, but the fact is you expect a second-round pick to move into the starting lineup quickly. Again, this will be the most-scrutinized yet least-impactful position battle of the preseason. With a dearth of talent surrounding these two QB’s, it’s not going to matter who wins the starting QB job. Both will see playing time tonight but probably not much after the first quarter and certainly not in the second half when Greg McElroy Jr. will get in there. The Jets have a lot of evaluating to do and that’s what this preseason is going to be all about for perhaps the worst team in football. The scoreboard will mean nothing to coach Rex Ryan, who is 0-4 in Week 1 of the preseason schedule.
By contrast, Jim Schwartz is 12-4 overall in the preseason in his four seasons as a head coach. The Lions are loaded and deep on offense and you can expect to see this pass happy attack go right to it with Matthew Stafford playing the first couple of series followed by Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore and/or Thaddeus Lewis. Moore is a Boise State product that put up sick passing numbers in college and that fits right into the Lions mold. Moore and Lewis will get the most playing time here and both are very capable of making plays. Offensively, Detroit is in fine shape and should easily put up 21 points or more in this contest. One should never overlook the records of coaches in preseason, especially in Week 1 and Week 4. Coaches have different agendas in the preseason and Lions head coach, Jim Schwartz likes to get his team in a winning frame of mind. Rex Ryan couldn’t care less. Ryan hates to show the opposition anything in meaningless games and that should hold true even more this season because the Jets talent pool is so scarce. In Week 1 of last year’s preseason, the Lions whacked the Brownies 36-3 while the Jets scored 6 points in a 17-6 loss to the Bengals. Two seasons ago in Week 1 of the preseason, Detroit destroyed the Bengals 34-3. Do you see a pattern here? We certainly do and it strongly suggests that Jim Schwartz wants his teams’ confidence level sky high once the real season begins. That should hold true again here.
Saskatchewan +3 over CALGARY
The Stampeders are 4-1 and they’re widely considered one of the powers in this league. That may turn out to be true but right now, we’re not buying. Calgary won its season opener over B.C. by a score of 44-32. That was a very emotionally charged game for the host Stampeders because it came right after the devastating floods in that region and everyone was jacked up. The Stampeders next three wins came against the Alouettes twice and the Blue Bombers once. In fact, Calgary beat Montreal the first time by a score of 22-14 and in the rematch, the Stamps fell behind 24-0 in the first quarter before the Als collapsed. Calgary did not have an easy time with the Blue Bombers either. The Stamps only loss came against these Riders in Week 2 by a score of 36-21. The Stamps were shutout in the second half of that game. Calgary is also forced to go with Kevin Glenn after Drew Tate came up lame in practice this week. Glenn is capable but to beat the Riders, a team needs to be at their absolute best and Glenn is not Calgary’s best. He’s also not very mobile.
The Riders are a must bet taking points. They are destroying everyone in their path and the numbers speak volumes. Saskatchewan sports the top offense at 36.6 points per game and the stingiest defense at 17.4 points per game. Over 68 possessions this season, Saskatchewan's average starting point has been its own 39 yard line. The opposition, by contrast, has had an average starting point of the 29-yard line over 72 possessions. That advantage, multiplied by an average of 14 possessions per game, is roughly equivalent to the length of a CFL field. The Roughriders' dominance in terms of field position is further accentuated when the comparison pertains to the number of possessions that have begun on or beyond the 40-yard line. Saskatchewan has enjoyed such favorable field position 42.6 per cent of the time. The opponents' percentage: 18.1. Not only that, the Roughriders' opponent has been hemmed in on the 20-yard line or closer to its goal-line 23.6% of the time, compared to Saskatchewan's figure of 13.2%. The consistently long fields add up to even longer days for the Riders' foes. So why are the opponents consistently in a hole? The monster kickoffs of Ricky Schmitt are one factor. His average of 69.7 yards per kickoff is easily the league's best. Saskatchewan is first in line in the take-away-giveaway category (plus-14). Nobody else is close to that mark. The Roughriders have feasted upon 15 turnovers while relinquishing the ball only once - and that was on special teams when the visiting side's failure to defend against an onside kick in Toronto was ruled a fumble. The impressive take-away/giveaway total is reflective of a redesigned Riders defense that is capable of making game-changing, field-position-altering plays. From offense to defense to special teams, the Riders have been near flawless and they’re going to be as jacked up for this intense rivalry as they’ve been all season. Calgary is good but they’re not in the same class as the Riders. It’s been proven once already this season and it’s not likely to be any different here.
Ross Benjamin
Baltimore -130
Although Chris Tillman's numbers don't jump off the screen at you he has been one of the better money line pitchers in baseball this season. The Orioles have won an outstanding 12 of their 13 games this season with Tillman as their starter. The Giants Ryan Vogelsong returns from the disabled list and makes his first start since May 20th. Vogelsong was terrible in his 9 starts this season before being sidelined posting a very lofty 7.19 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and allowed 11 home runs in just 46.3 innings. The Giants are a dismal 1-12 this season when facing a starting pitcher who allows an average of 1 home run or more per start on the year.
Joe Duffy
Green Bay Packers -1
Joe Duffy’s picks continue to win and win. We are 59-37 overall underdog moneyline winners outnumbering the moneyline chalk losers 36-9. In MLB, it is 58-35. Wise Guys, we are 21-11 with 29 moneyline underdogs. The NL Game of the Month in the Dodgers led the way last night. The first Wise Guy of the NFL season is among three NFL winners and three MLB from the us.
Now though let’s focus on a free NFL winner. It is to take Green Bay (-1.5) to Arizona. Our true line (previously known as outlaw line) is the Packers (-6). The true line is what the line would be without public perception or bad line moves.
We will admit our true line is substantially more effective in the college and pro regular season, but a 4.5 scalp is still very significant in NFLX. Even if Eddie Lacy is out, Green Bay has gotten much deeper and RB and will thrive running against the second and third teamers.
Yes, they do have nagging injuries on the OL, but they have 15 big uglies on the roster, so they still have 9-10 guys to rotate. Even No. 4 QB B.J. Coleman has looked great in practice for the Packers.
Generally we are not a fan of journey QBs in the preseason. As we often say, there is a reason why they are career back-ups. But Vince Young is getting another chance (we have lost count), so look for him to take this game pretty seriously.
Arizona is likely without their top two RBs Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Williams. Yes, the Redbirds have rebuilt their offense. All I have seen is a bunch of spare parts led by one of the most overrated QBs of our era. Reports from their camp are lukewarm. Packers in a rout.
Dave Price
Detroit Tigers -108
The Tigers are in good position to pick up a 13th straight win as they take on a struggling New York club that has dropped four in a row. Detroit's Porcello has been terrific of late. The Tigers have won his last five starts while he's held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in each. New York's Nova has been pitching well, but he's getting no run support. Plus, he's been lit up by the Tigers, going 0-3 with a 9.87 ERA in four starts against them. The Tigers have won three of Porcello's last four starts versus the Yankees. Detroit has won six of the last seven head-to-head meetings. It is also 5-2 in its last 7 at Yankee Stadium. Take the Tigers.
Jeff Alexander
Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +110
The D-backs are 18-4 in Corbin's starts this season, including 10-2 in his home starts where he has a 1.50 ERA. He has given up just 1 run in 4 of his last 5 starts, which means the D-backs will have an excellent chance to cover the run line if he provides them with another gem. The Mets are 7-15 in Hefner's starts, including 1-4 in his last 5. He's allowed 5 runs or more in 3 of his last 4 starts. Lay the 1.5 runs with Arizona.
Craig Davis
Yep, call me a glutton for punishment. I am jumping right back on the NY Yankees despite a recent 2-6 road trip and a three-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Chicago White Sox.
They are finding ways to lose games... kinda like I've been doing lately.
But not tonight.
If the Yankees are going to win again, it's going to be with Kuroda or Nova on the hill. And as fate would have it, Nova is on the bump tonight.
Vegas isn't stupid. They know that despite the Tigers winning 12 games in a row, they are, in fact, facing New York's hottest pitcher in his own backyard.
Nova (5-4, 3.08 ERA) has been rolling, individually, recording an amazing 1.66 ERA over his last five starts, yet the team gives him absolutely no run support.
In his last start, Nova four-hit the Padres in a 3-0 Yankees win last weekend, pitching seven scoreless innings. Joe Girardi once said Nova has the best "stuff" of any Yankees pitcher. While his record isn't showing it... his ERA sure is.
The Tigers will counter with Rick Porcello (8-6, 4.28 ERA) who has actually pitched rather well of late. But he's still the low man on the totem pole in the Detroit rotation and that doesn't happen by accident.
Take the Yankees in a value play as your free play of the day.
4♦ N.Y. YANKEES