Brett Atkins
I'm on a 10-6 runs with my last 16 free selections and today I've got a comp winner coming from the NBA's marquee game as I play the Lakers to get it done at home today over the Cavs.
You know Kobe Bryant has been waiting for this matchup since the schedule was announced. He’s been in the Christmas Day marquee game several times in his career, but now he gets to show off his championship ring with this matchup against LeBron James, Shaq and the Cavs. Talk about incentive for the world’s best basketball player!
Los Angeles has won five straight games and Kobe looked like he had a nice tune-up Tuesday when he put up 40 points, grabbed eight rebounds and dished out six assists in a 111-108 home win over the Thunder. I know the Lakers didn’t cover, but it was a definite look-ahead game to this one.
The Lakers won the season series over the Cavs last year, scoring a 105-88 home win as a five-point favorite and then they went to Cleveland and solidified their dominance with a 101-91 road win as a five-point underdog.
Los Angeles is on ATS runs of 7-3 against Central Division teams and 5-2 at home against teams with a winning home record. Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after taking one day off.
This is the type of game Kobe likes to come out and put up a big number. A lot of incentive for him to dominate this game and we’ll see “playoff” Kobe today. Lay the chalk and play the Lakers.
3♦ L.A. LAKERS
Jay McNeil
The Magic are finally getting their full array of talent on the floor, while the Celtics are hurting right now.
Orlando beat Houston 102-87 Wednesday with its regular starting five on the floor for just the second time this season. Despite the team's inability to field its full complement of players, the Magic still have raced out to a 22-7 record and look like a definite threat to defend their conference championship.
The Celtics are going to be missing Paul Pierce, who is out with a knee injury, and Kevin Garnett, although he is expected to play today, is bothered by a thigh bruise that kept him out of Boston's 103-94 victory over Indiana. And with Marquis Daniels and Glen Davis still out of the lineup, the Celtics could have problems matching up with Orlando today.
The Magic have held five of their last six opponents under 100 points, and Dwight Howard and Vince Carter should pace the Orlando offense against Boston.
The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and I think that trend continues today. Take the Magic to win big playing at home in this Christmas Day matchup.
4♦ ORLANDO
Charley Sutton
I’m heading out to Hawaii where I’m taking UNLV in the Diamond Head Classic against USC.
UNLV comes into this game on a roll, having started 12-1 SU and having gone 8-3 ATS in its 11 lined games this season. USC, on the other hand, has won just 7 of its first 11 games and has covered in just 3 of its 10 lined games.
Over their last six games the Trojans have covered in just two games and now have to battle a UNLV team that’s covered in 4 of its 5 games away from home.
The Rebels head into this game riding a 3-game cover streak and will make it 4 covers in a row against USC tonight.
3 ♦ UNLV
Joel Tyson
In the NBA, lay the points with the Lakers over the Cavaliers this Christmas Day.
Cleveland is playing their 4th game in 6 days, and all of them have come away from home.
As amped up as the Cavaliers may be for this game, it has got to be tough playing on the road on Christmas Day, and the fact the Lakers are 16-2 at home has also got to be tough.
The Lakers swept Cleveland in last year's season series both straight up, and against the spread, and I like them to win meeting number one this afternoon in Los Angeles both straight up, and against the spread.
Take LA minus the points.
3♦ LA LAKERS
Karl Garrett
Miami at NY KNICKS -2
The New York Knicks get to show the nation just how much they have improved, as they open the Christmas Day NBA slate by hosting the Miami Heat.
Miami is just 4-5 straight up their last 9 games, while New York brings a 3 game winning streak, and wins in 7 of their last 9 into this home matinee.
The home team has been the winner the last 5 times these teams have met, and has also won in 7 of the last 10 series showdowns.
With this line pretty much being a pick, a New York win would pretty much secure the cover, and with the Knickerbockers restoring some respect in the Big Apple with their play this season, the G-Man will look for New York to take care of business in this Christmas Day opener.
Take New York as the small home chalk.
2♦ NEW YORK
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Clippers at PHOENIX -9'
I'm on an amazing 12-1 FREE play streak and I've delivered a 35-15 comp play run over the last 50 days. Tonight I've got a comp winner coming on the NBA hardwood as I lay the chalk with the Suns at home to wipe out the Clippers.
You might be surprised at the Clippers’ record, as their 12 wins seems surprisingly high for that franchise. But looking deeper inside the number explains a lot and explains why it’s safe to lay the chalk today with the Suns.
Los Angeles has been beating the other bottom feeders of the NBA but unable to have any significant win over a decent team. I’d put Phoenix in the decent category and I have them winning this one by 15.
The Clippers have topped the 100-point mark twice in the last 10 games, but none of the last two as they’ve fallen in San Antonio and Houston, failing to cover in either place. Los Angeles concludes a six-game road trip with this one and you know it’s got to be tough for them to be closing a road trip on Christmas night against a team that can score like the Suns. They are just 11-26 ATS in their last 37 road games and 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 games overall.
Phoenix has also dropped two in a row, but the Suns problem is on defense. They have scored 102 points or more in four of the last five games, averaging 108.6 points a game and shooting 49.9 percent from the floor.
The Suns have won five straight and eight of nine (4-5 ATS) over the Clippers and the last time these two squared off in the desert, Phoenix got a 140-100 win, easily cashing as nine-point favorites. The Suns have scored 103 points or more in each of the last five matchups, with a 140 and 142 thrown in there during blowouts.
Look for the Suns to put up a big number and the Clippers can’t match it. Lay the chalk with Phoenix tonight.
4♦ PHOENIX
Dominic Fazzini
Southern Cal vs. UNLV -3 at Honolulu
No complimentary selection Thursday with just the Hawaii Bowl on the schedule. But I'm going back to the Aloha State to resume my winning ways with my free plays, as I'm on a 45-30 run right now!
Did you get a chance to watch UNLV play Hawaii on the Warriors' home floor Wednesday night? The Rebels played their best defense in the first half since Tark the Shark was patroling the UNLV sideline in the early 90s.
The Rebels took a 44-21 lead into halftime as Hawaii didn't score for the first six minutes of the game, and the Warriors had more turnovers (11) than field goals (five) in the first half. It was the second straight night UNLV held an opponent to 53 points, doing the same to SMU on Tuesday.
UNLV is getting balanced scoring as well, averaging 78 ppg, and has only lost once, on Dec. 12 to No. 12 Kansas State.
USC has improved since getting point guard Mike Gerrity on the floor the last three games, and has won five straight overall, but the Trojans are 2-4 ATS in their last six games, and I think the Rebels' defensive pressure and depth will wear USC down.
UNLV is 4-1 ATS in its last five games, 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite and 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games. Take the Rebels to win tonight by at least five points.
3♦ UNLV
Tony Weston
Very light slate of action last night and no Comp Play to go out. Well, I’m back and I’m cashing in with a strong Comp Play winner on the Lakers at home against the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavs come into Los Angeles having struggled to make money, covering in just 4 of their last 10 games.
Now they battle a Lakers team that’s lost just 4 games SU all season and is beating its opponents by more than 8 points per game (103.6-95). AT home, things are a little better as Los Angeles is beating its opponents, on average, by a score of 105-93.7.
Also, the Lakers have covered in 7 of their last 10 games against the Central Division and are 10-4 ATS their last 14 games when installed as a favorite of between 5 and 10 1/2 points.
Los Angeles will do it again as they get over against the Cavs.
3♦ LAKERS
LT Profits
Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers
As much respect as we have for LeBron James, who has basically made the Cleveland Cavaliers what they are virtually by himself, we look for the Los Angeles Lakers to prove they are the best team in the NBA this season.
The Lake Show is 23-4 overall including 16-2 here at home, where the Lakers are winning by an average of +10.3 points per game. Sure, the offense is as good as it has always been, as they are averaging 103.6 points per game overall and 105.0 points at home. However, the addition of Ron Artest this season has added a toughness to the defense, further separating the Lakers from the rest of the league.
Now the Cavaliers have won seven of their last eight games including going 2-1 on the Western trip so far. However, this is a statement game and a possible NBA Finals preview, so Cleveland is certain to see the Lakers A game here. It is questionable whether or not the Cavs are even the best team in the East, as the Celtics and Magic are in that conversation, and we certainly feel that Cleveland is a couple of notches below the Lakers when both teams are at their peak.
This was evident even last season, when the Lakers were the only team to win a meaningful game at Cleveland the entire regular season and they blew the Cavaliers out by 17 points here in LA. Look for another double-digit Lakers win here.
Pick: Lakers -5.5
Hollywood Sports
USC at UNLV
Play: UNLV
In the final round of the Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu, look for UNLV to cover the spread against USC to win the championship. The Runnin' Rebels (12-1) are a savvy bunch with impressive wins against Louisville and at Arizona. They should take care of a USC team (7-4) happy with themselves after defeating St. Mary's in the semi-finals of this tournament (60-49) as a six-point underdog. The Trojans have covered only twice in their last seven games coming off a win. While both teams prioritize their defensive efforts, UNLV should have the significant edge here. USC's defense helps them have an average winning margin of 3.9 PPG -- but UNLV's tough defense translates into a +11.1 net point winning margin. And away from their home court, the Trojans allow their opponents to score 74 PPG. The Rebels, on the other hand, hold their opponents to just 61.8 PPG and a stingy 36.3% shooting percentage away from Las Vegas. UNLV has covered four of their last five games as a favorite and seven of their last ten games when coming off a win. Their defense and strong team-play should lead them to a comfortable victory. Lay the points with UNLV.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW YORK –2 over Miami
The Heat has picked it up recently with three wins in four games and now sit two games over .500. They’ve also been decent on the road with a 5-4 record and anything above .500 on the road in the NBA has to be considered huge. Having said that, this is about as big as it’s been for the Knicks in close to a decade. The Christmas NBA games will be aired in 215 countries in 39 languages. The five games will also be shown on American Forces Networks to all military bases and ships around the globe and this one tips it off. The Knicks get a chance to show the world that they’re not the same team that has been an embarrassment to the city and league for years and it’s true, they’re not the same. The defense is getting better each game. They have some tremendous young talent in David Lee, Chris Duhon and Danilo Gallinari among others. They also have a very decent bench. They’ve gone 8-3 in December and Mike D’Antoni will most definitely have them jacked up, focused and ready to go and the joint should be rocking with playoff-like atmosphere. It’s just a great opportunity for the Knicks to put a stamp on its “turning the corner” phase of the rebuilding process and it says here they do just that. Play: New York –2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
L.A. LAKERS –5½ over Cleveland
The Cav’s look good indeed but this isn’t the Kings, Grizzlies, Thunder, Pistons or Nets. This is the Lakers, the best in the business in a game that means something. Well, sort of. It means nothing in terms of standings but it definitely mans something to Phil Jackson, Kobe and the rest of the Lakers. You see, the Lakers don’t have a lot to get excited about these days. Every game is just another game in a long season but every game represents a step closer to May, when the real season begins. So, it’s not often the Lakers can get excited but with Shaq and LeBron in town and the whole world watching you know that Lakers will treat this one like the seventh game of a playoff series. The Lakers have a huge edge inside and should absolutely destroy the Cav’s in the paint. Yeah, LeBron can and likely will go off for 30 or more but so what. The Lakers are the superior team by a wide margin and Kobe just has to win on National TV or he won’t eat or sleep for a month. Anyway, Gasol and Bynum in the paint will ruin this invader. Ilgauskas and Shaq are big and both can score, especially Ilgauskas but as far as defending, they’re both about as mobile as a fire hydrant and the Lakers will exploit that all game. Play: L.A. Lakers –5½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
GoodFella
NYK -2.5 vs MIA
Short and sweet for me here- I really like the way the Knicks are playing ball the last 2 weeks, as they have won 7 of their L/9 and are playing with great confidence and continuity & I look for more of the same on their homecourt on Christmas morning. I really think if they can contain D-Wade and not let him take over this game that the Knicks have a great shot to cover this short number. We also have some nice little reverse line movement on this play as well. Majority on the Heat and the line going the other way. Lay the short number with the Knicks Christmas morning fellas.
JACK JONES
Los Angeles Lakers -8 over Cleveland Cavs
I don't expect the Cavs to be up to the task of winning in Los Angeles on Christmas day. Cleveland has struggled on the road this season, running up an 11-6 record so far. The Lakers, on the the other hand, have been one of the strongest home teams in the NBA yet against this season, earning a 16-2 mark thus far. LA's average home game ends in a 105-95 victory, while Cleveland's average road game is still a victory, but only a 101-97 one. On a neutral court I would have to give the Lakers the edge in this match up and on their home court there's no way I can pass them up at this low number.
Tom Freese
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 14-2-1 ATS their last 17 games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40% and they are 13-5 ATS off an ATS loss. The Suns are 4-1 ATS off a straight up loss and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Friday games. The Clippers are 22-46-1 ATS their last 69 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60% and they are 4-12-1 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. Los Angeles is 9-27-1 ATS when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. PLAY ON PHOENIX -
O.C. Dooley
Lakers -5’ vs Cavaliers
The bottom line is that the Lakers finally come in at a slight line value due to the NBA scheduling two of its biggest starts (Kobe, LeBron) going up against each other. The Lakers are on an incredible 16-1 tear but against the spread (9-8) have just been a .500 investment due to constant “over pricing” which comes with their marquee defending NBA Champion price tag. Actually the line for today’s game has risen from an opening figure of 4 points, but in my mind is still a manageable price. Today the Lakers will attempt to stay UNDFEATED (10-0) against opposition from the Eastern Conference. Certainly Kobe Bryant and company have had enough rest as they have not taken the court since Tuesday. On the other hand Cleveland played at Sacramento on Wednesday and were extended into OVERTIME. It was not all that long ago when Cleveland actually owned the Lakers in this series winning 5 consecutive meetings, but it was Los Angeles that took both clashes last campaign. As mentioned earlier in this analysis the Lakers have actually been a poor investment for bettors due to constant high price tags. But my database research indicates that in the past two years the Lakers are actually a decent 20-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread 4 times in a 6-game span