Dave Price
1 Unit Toronto Raptors +8½
The defending NBA champs are 0-3 and will have a difficult time covering this hefty number after getting their hearts ripped out last night by Kevin Durant's 3-pointer at buzzer. The Mavs will likely do enough to get the win, but I expect Toronto, who is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 road games, to give them all they want and more. Dallas is just 15-33 ATS in home games against Eastern Conference foes under coach Carlisle and is winning these games by just 2.9 points on average. Take Toronto.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
BYU/ Tulsa Over 56.5: The Cyclone offense, which ranks 23rd in the country in scoring (34.1) and yards (454.4), is led by fifth-year senior quarterback G.J. Kinne, who rushed for more than 400 yards, threw for 25 touchdowns and passed for 300 or more yards five times this season. Kinne gets plenty of help from running backs Ja'Terian Douglas and Trey Watts, who each ran for more than 800 yards, with Douglas leading the FBS with 8.2 yards per carry. While BYU's running game can't boast quite the same production as Tulsa's, the Cougars' top rushers - JJ Di Luigi and Michael Alisa - combined to break the 1,000-yard mark. QB Riley Nelson replaced Jake Heaps in the mid- season and he threw for 244 ypg in his six starts with 16 TD's and just 5 INT's. BYU has hit the 40 point mark in 3 straight games and they have averaged 41.3 ppg in the 6 games since Riley took over at QB. I don't see either defense being able to slow down these offenses here.
Mississippi State/ Wake Forest Under 48: I just don't expect a lot of points in this one today. The Bulldogs have played some good defense this year as they have allowed just 19.9 ppg overall and they are 23rd in the nation vs the pass as they have allowed just 194.1 ypg through the air. The State offense has not been that great this year as they have averaged just 355.1 ypg (87th) and they are 92nd in passing, putting up just 186.2 ypg through the air. The Bulldogs have scored just 25.5 ppg (71), but they have really struggled to score down the stretch as they have averaged just 18.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Wake has struggled on offense this year and despite putting up 26.8 ppg (22 ppg in their last 3), they have averaged just 374 ypg (76th) and should have problems putting up points vs this tough Bulldog defense. The Wake defense has struggled some this year, but the Bulldogs haven't really looked good on offense down the stretch. I expect the defenses to come up big vs some two average offenses in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Iowa State/ Rutgers Under 44.5: Google News play. Im gonna look at the Under in this one. The Cyclone defense played very well down the stretch as they allowed just 20.8 ppg in their last 5 games, compared to allowing 35.8 ppg in their first 7 games. Now this defense gets to take a weak Rutgers offense that is 100th overall and has scored just 22.3 ppg in their last 4 games. This is a field position offense that relies on not taking chances and letting their defense win games. Rutgers also doesn't get a lot of big plays as they are 109th in yards per play (4.5). ISU has a solid running game (36th), but passing has been an issue for them (74th). ISU will look to run in this game as the Knights are 56th vs the run, but 13th vs the pass. ISU comes in 89th in yards per play (4.9). This will be a game of a game of running, defense and non-big plays and I really don't expect it to hit 40 points.
Oklahoma -13.5 over Iowa: Google News play. To take a quote form Bob Stoops "We've had some significant injuries over the last half of the season, but this is an opportunity for other players," said Stoops. "We're excited about our trip to Tempe and the opportunity we've got to reach 10 wins." I gotta believe that this Oklahoma team will be fired up for this one. 10 wins is a big deal in CFB and after starting the preseason #1 and coming off the humiliating loss to the Cowboys you can expect that the Sooners will be looking to finish strong. The Hawkeyes have some injury problems of their own with the loss of Coker and with out a running game the Sooners should be able to pressure James Vandenberg in to some mistakes. Even with the offensive injuries the Sooners have they still have plenty of weapons to put up a lot of points and the Hawkeyes average offense just doesn't have enough firepower to keep up. Landry will go out with a big game and the Sooners will erase the memories of the OSU debacle as they win this one with ease.
Tony George
Oklahoma -13.5
One question you always ask yourself at bowl time is who is disappointed in their bowl game and who might in fact have a motivational edge in the game. If that was purely the reason for making a selection against the Las Vegas line, then Iowa would be a clear cut choice here.
Oklahoma was ranked tops in the nation at one point this season and then bitter and shocking defeats and major injuries to key players reared their ugly head for the proud Sooners, and a season ending blowout woodshed butt kicking by in state rival Okie State capped off a miserable year for OU. The Sooners will enter this game without their star RB and WR Broyles who was a Heisman candidate, and since his injury, Heisman hopeful QB Laundry Jones just fell off the map at QB and had an average year at best. In an off field incident December 8th, back up RB Roy Finch has been suspended as of the writing of this article, and is questionable to make the bowl trip, he was cited by local police for property damage and faces team discipline. Fortunately for Oklahoma they are deep at skill positions.
On the other side Iowa ended their season with a 20-7 loss at Nebraska, and have been inconsistent all year after losing NFL draft pick Ricky Stanzi at QB, they have failed to stay consistent on offense all year and lack big play capability. Iowa has has some ugly losses as well, including a road loss to Minnesota. It should be noted that head coach Kirk Ferentz is 7-2 ATS as a Bowl coach for them in his 9 seasons, and Iowa is always a strong play in Bowl games.
Looking at the numbers here overall and the intangibles, they clearly favor Oklahoma, especially on offense where they outgain the Hawkeyes 140 yards per game in total yards. Oklahoma was involved in season ending shootouts against Baylor and Okie State and their defensive numbers are skewed somewhat, and Iowa's offense does not match up well against OU's defense and their overall team speed.
On defense the teams are pretty even, but OU played in a much more high octane style conference in the Big 12 versus the bump and grind style of most Big 10 teams. The contrasting styles between these two conferences in terms of a body of season long work favor Oklahoma. Iowa just flat out lost to every good team they played this year. The Hawkeyes one signature win was against Michigan at home where they were outgained in total yards, but Michigan gave up 3 crucial turnovers in that game that put Iowa on top.
At days end this is a ton of points in any bowl game involving 2 teams from BCS conferences, but my sources close to Oklahoma tell me they are ready to play this game and are looking for some "face saving" efforts in this one. As I compare Iowa's offense and defense to teams that OU has played, Kansas State comes closest to Iowa's scheme and OU beat K State 58-17 on the road this season and that was off the Texas Tech loss. Iowa simply cannot trade punches in this game in my opinion on the scoreboard and as much as Iowa has shown up in the past in bowl games, Oklahoma has too much firepower on offense and pull away late here.
Jack Jones
Tulsa / BYU Over 57½
Oddsmakers have set the bar way too low in this game Friday. I have Tulsa and BYU combining to score more than 60 points in the Armed Forces Bowl today in Dallas, Texas. This is a match-up of two potent offenses that can score in bunches.
Tulsa is scoring 34.1 points/game this season behind 454.4 total yards/game. They have a balanced attack which makes them very difficult to deal with. The Golden Hurricane rush for 206 yards and throw for 248 yards per game.
BYU is averaging 30.6 points/game this season and 410.8 total yards/game. Like Tulsa, they also have a balanced attack that averages 166 yards on the ground and 245 yards through the air. This team has really taken off offensively since Riley Nelson took over at quarterback against Utah State. The Cougars are scoring 39.4 points/game in their last seven.
BYU is 6-0 to the OVER in their last 6 when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The OVER is 5-1 in BYU's last 6 games overall. The Cougars are 4-1 to the OVER in their last 5 non-conference games. BYU is 4-1 to the OVER in their last 5 vs. Conference USA opponents. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
Charlie Scott
Rutgers vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State
I made this 1 of my Best Bets in TheLasVegasSportsLine.com Bowl Blowout contest and still feel Iowa St is a good bet. Iowa St is the better team, much more potent offense from a better conference, with a tougher schedule. One common opponent is at U Conn who beat Rutgers 40-22, Iowa St Won @ UConn 24-20. More importantly, Iowa St seems excited to be playing in Yankee Stadium and staying in NY, while for the Rutgers kids it's not a vacation at all, but yet just another day in the Hood across the river !
Tom Grassi
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers
The Cavs notched this first win of the season on Wednesday when they beat the Pistons up in Detroit 105-89. Meanwhile, the Pacers looked to be much improved this season and they have started out at a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS. Cleveland has a slew of young players and don’t see them winning many games this season. Good idea to play against Cleveland after a win. Indiana roughs up the Cavs tonight. Lay the points.
Wunderdog
Rutgers vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -1
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights will face the Big-12's Iowa State Cyclones in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights finished an unexpected 8-4 and challenged for the Big East Championship. That has a nice ring to it, but the Big East was loaded with mediocre teams that seemingly all had a chance for the title, because on any given week they were all capable of beating each other and often times did. It was a similar story last year with UConn, surprisingly winning it only to get hammered vs. another Big-12 team Oklahoma. Iowa State looked hopelessly lost after a four-game losing streak, but pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season handing Oklahoma State their first loss for their sixth win. They came close to pulling another upset on the road in their finale against Kansas State. This team may be 6-6, but they have played a much rougher schedule and became much more competitive late in the season. They held Oklahoma State to 31 points and their season low was 30, and Oklahoma to 26 which was their second lowest at the time they played them. The Cyclones are now 5-0 ATS against teams with a winning record the last five times they have faced them. Go with Iowa State in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Western Michigan +21
This experienced Western Michigan squad is better than its record might lead you to believe. It has recovered from its sluggish start with 4 straight wins, and it will be motivated to perform well here after disappointing showings against Purdue and Gonzaga early on. The Broncos catch Duke at just the right time as the Blue Devils haven't played a game since Dec. 19. While Duke will be chomping at the bit to get back on the court, it will also show some rust from the long layoff. There are times when the over-under line gives us good insight into how odds makers expect a game to go, and this is one of those times. With the total up over 150, the books are expecting a high-scoring affair. This bodes well for us considering Western Mich is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games when the total is 150 to 159.5. Duke is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 home games when the total is 150 to 159.5. It is only winning these games by an average of 12.4 points. The high total suggests Western Michigan will be able to score enough points to keep this one within the number. We'll take the points this evening.
Lenny Del Genio
Wake Forest at Mississippi St.
Prediction: Mississippi St.
Dan Mullen?s Mississippi State Bulldogs did not gain bowl eligibility until the final regular season game when we cashed them as a Rivalry Game of the Month play over Ole Miss, 31-3, as 17-point chalk. Mullen will be hoping for a repeat of last year?s Bowl performance, a 52-14 beatdown of Michigan, yet another instance where we played the contingent from Starkville. Meanwhile, a 41-7 loss in their own finale against MSU?s SEC rival Vandy does not bode well for Wake Forest here, particularly when you consider the Deacons are 1-5 ATS off a loss by 28 or more the last three seasons. Take Mississippi State
MTi Sports
76ers at Jazz
Play: Under
The Jazz are 0-8 OU (-13.6 ppg) since November 26, 2009 at home after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four and the 76ers are 0-7 OU (-12.7 ppg) since April 05, 2011 after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. Consider these two UNDER.
Vegas Experts
Nashville at St. Louis
Play: Nashville
Nashville takes on St Louis tonight and seem to have tons of under-rated value as +160 underdogs. Nashville beat them twice already this season, once was just two weeks ago at home and they beat them earlier this season 4-2 on the road as +125 dogs. Nashville looks to end the Blues six game win streak tonight with another win to make it 3-0 SU against them this season.
Teddy Covers
Rutgers @ Iowa St.
PICK: Rutgers
Iowa State wasn’t very good this year. The Cyclones did have one signature win, a thrilling double OT victory at home against Oklahoma State. And Iowa State did put together a road blowout, beating up on Texas Tech 41-7 the week after the Red Raiders had knocked off Oklahoma in Stillwater. But when you look at the entirety of the Cyclones schedule, you walk away underwhelmed with their accomplishments. Iowa State was a team that closed out the season on a 3-6 SU slide. Five of their six wins came by four points or less, or in overtime – even the one point win over FCS Northern Iowa, a win they needed to become bowl eligible.
Iowa State finished ninth in points scored out of a ten team Big 12. They ranked eighth in total offense and third down conversion percentage. Iowa State’s defense wasn’t much better, finishing seventh in the conference in points allowed and #6 in yards allowed, despite the fact that five of their six losses came by two TD’s or more – games where opposing teams weren’t looking to pile up points and yards by the fourth quarter. A mid-season QB change to Jared Barnett wasn’t a difference maker – Barnett threw only six touchdowns in 213 attempts. Leading rusher James White averaged less than 60 yards per game, and other than Darius Reynolds, the receiving corps lacked playmakers. The Cyclones did pull off a minor upset in their last bowl game, beating Minnesota 14-13 in the 2009 Insight Bowl as two point underdogs, but it’s hard to project that victory having much meaning on a cold December afternoon in the Bronx on Friday.
Rutgers was as lucky as they were good in 2011, repeatedly finding ways to win coinflip type games. Two of their eight wins came in overtime (South Florida and Syracuse, neither of whom was a bowl team). A third win (Navy, another non-bowl team) came by a single point thanks to a late blocked field goal. But Rutgers certainly had more quality wins than Iowa State did, beating up on bowl bound Cincinnati, Pitt and Ohio U; all by double digit margins. They beat Army on this field back in November, and while a return trip to the same venue is not always a good thing, the Scarlet Knights should enjoy enough crowd support here to make them a worthy favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +8½ over DALLAS
The Mavericks stock was incredibly low after two absolutely putrid games to open the season. Dallas was embarrassed by Miami on opening day and followed that up with an even worse 22-point loss against Denver. With a 0-2 record and looking lost out there, the Mavericks traveled to Oklahoma City last night where nobody gave them much of a chance. As a 6½-point pooch, Dallas lost by two points on a buzzer beater trey by Kevin Durant. Dallas played well, they covered and although they’re 0-3, some credibility is restored. Meanwhile, the Raptors have a following in Canada and other than that, they’re a tiny dot on the NBA map. In other words, when you wager against the Raps, you’re going to pay a little extra to do so and that’s precisely the case here. The Raps have two games under their belt and still no credibility, as they beat Cleveland (big deal) and lost at home to Indiana just like they were expected to. That said, they’re a bit better than most realize. They have a deep and competent bench, they’re actually playing some strong defense and they have direction for the first time in years under new coach Dwayne Casey. Casey, an assistant with the Mavericks the last three seasons, knows this enemy well and should have his undervalued squad well prepped to compete. Possible upset. Play: Toronto +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Jersey +11½ over ATLANTA
Wagering at the beginning of the year provides many good opportunities and this one qualifies. The Hawks are 2-0 after blowing out New Jersey by 26 in the opener and followed that one with an 18-point win over Washington. They barely broke a sweat in either game and now this complacent club may figure all they have to do is show up. Atlanta is grossly overvalued here based on two games. The Hawks won 44 games and made the second round of the playoffs last season but that can be misleading. They gave up more points than they scored in the regular season, went 10-17 after the All-Star break, lost one of the top sixth men in free agency (without replacing him) and they’ll be without Kirk Hinrich for nearly half the season. Atlanta's bench looms as a major weakness. The Nets are the hardest team to project because of all the potential wild cards. While Kris Humphries finally signed, they still have a ton of cap room and might sign Andrei Kirilenko. For now, the Nets are a mishmash. Star guard Deron Williams has been playing in real games since October and should be in tip-top shape and Brook Lopez can be productive as a secondary offensive weapon in the middle. That's a solid offensive foundation and certainly one that should improve on last season's 27th-place standing in offensive efficiency. They should be respectable all year but two bad losses in succession combined with two easy wins by Atlanta allow us to take back a bunch of extra points here. Play: New Jersey +11½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Doug Upstone
Miss. State / Wake Forest Under
On Friday we head to Nashville for the Music City Bowl, where we find a total this deserves a look. Play UNDER on teams like Mississippi State when the total is between 42.5 and 49, after allowing 3.75 or less yards a play in their previous game, in a contest between two teams with eight or more offensive starters returning. (32-9 the last 10 seasons)
Dave Essler
Minnesota +8
It's ONLY +8 with the most public team in the NBA versus one of the most publicly faded. We've got Adleman who I DO like as a coach. His teams typically score against anyone, and I've always like Kevin Love and his intensity. This will be a huge benchmark to see where this "new" T-Wolves teams stands. I like Beasely going against his old team. I like the fact that Derrick Williams can play both ends of the floor. They've held opponents to 43% from the floor, which includes 21% from behind the arc. They've outrrebounded opponents at both ends. They simply need to score (Love has been a 37% shooter) and make their free throws, and being at home and playing Miami should inspire that.