Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Memphis Grizzlies -5½
Motivated by back-to-back losses to start the season, expect the Grizzlies to break into the win column in impressive fashion this evening. The Grizzlies have been an awesome investment at 51-25-1 ATS in their last 77 games overall. They are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss. Even without Mike Conley, who is expected to be sidelined with an ankle injury, this hungry Memphis squad has more than enough fire power (Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, Tony Allen, O.J. Mayo) to cover this number. Lay the points.
Chuck O'Brien
Your free winner tonight is out of the NBA, and I'm siding with the Charlotte Bobcats over the visiting Orlando Magic. And make note, this is not a knee-jerk reaction to the other night's performance against the Miami Heat, whom the 'Cats lef by as many as 15 before losing 96-95. Wednesday's game had nothing to do with my first reaction when I handicapped the week of basketball.
I'm going against Orlando in this one.
The Magic is 2-1 on the season, yes. But I don't like what I am seeing and hearing with the cohesiveness on this team. The whole Dwight Howard Sweepstakes is going to be the downfall of this team, and mark my words, it's going to take a toll in games like this. Every night after a game, and every afternoon after practice, the all-NBA center reiterates that his trade request is intact and he wants out of Orlando.
So when the Magic hit the road to take on a team they should beat, I don't think they're going to be thinking much about the game and will defeat themselves by looking past teams like Charlotte.
Now, about the Bobcats...
The only advantage the Magic have in this game is with Dwight Howard, and right now, he's not enough for me to side with Orlando against a team that is going to be hungry to win games like this all season. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, all season long, what you're going to see is how they'll play up to the level of competition and down to teams like themselves.
I think we're consistently going to see guys like D.J. Augustine step it up against the power teams, and become lax when it comes to mediocre teams. Gerald Henderson may be the key component to keep this team focused in every game, I'll give the Bobcats that much. And for this game, let's not forget former Magic forward Corey Maggette is a starter for Charlotte.
2♦ CHARLOTTE
Matt Rivers
Friday's comp play release is to back Rutgers as the small favorite at Yankee Stadium against Iowa State in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Both schools come in off losses their last time out, but it is Iowa State that actually comes in riding a two-game losing streak, and the Cyclones did lose six of their last nine after starting the year at 3-0.
Rutgers' Greg Schiano quietly put together wins in seven of 10 to close the season out to get his team back to a bowl game after missing the postseason last year. With the Knights playing so close to their home campus, you can expect the Yankee Stadium crowd to be rocking their scarlet red for Rutgers.
The Knights have won their last four bowl games straight up, and they are 4-1 against the spread in bowl play under Schiano. They also finished the year with a 4-1 spread mark in non-conference play, and their defense led the Big East in total and scoring defense. Expect that vaunted stop unit to make the difference in this near-pick contest.
3♦ RUTGERS
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at the Minnesota Timberwolves as a home underdog to cover against the Miami Heat.
With the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the Heat are the more talented club and you would think it could win by double digits.
That is if the Heat is focused and ready to play. With the NBA season, some teams are not mentally ready to play. That’s why the Heat struggled against the Charlotte Bobcats. Miami rallied for the win, but not the cover.
At home, the Timberwolves will give their best effort and may have the Heat on the ropes. Kevin Love offers some matchup problems for the Heat. They still lack consistent play inside.
Miami is just 1-2 ATS so far this season. The Timberwolves are 0-2 straight up this season, but 2-0 ATS.
Take the points.
2♦ TIMBERWOLVES
Derek Mancini
For tonight's Free Play, I'm siding with Seton Hall as the small favorite over the visiting West Virginia. This line stands out to me because of the way these two teams began league play. West Virginia delivered an impressive win and cover against Villanova, while Seton Hall got destroyed at Syracuse. Fast forward two days later and all of a sudden the Pirates are a slight favorite over WVU? What gives?
What gives is this line is indicating a bounce back effort by a very good Seton Hall team tonight at home - and I'm inclined to agree. Match ups, motivation, and situational edges all go to the Pirates, who are 7-0 SU (3-1 ATS) at home this season. Their defense has been rock-solid in front of the home fans, but more importantly its their offensive balance that will be key here tonight.
Jordan Theodore has emerged as one of the premier point guards in the country, averaging 6.9 assists per game to go along with his 15 ppg. He's joined in the backcourt by Fuquan Edwin, who's sticky fingers (36 steals) rank him as one of the best defensive guards in the country. That's a match up edge for Seton Hall, because after Truck Bryant the Mountaineers experience a significant drop-off at the guard position. Down-low, Kevin Jones and Herb Pope will equalize each other, especially after how poorly Pope has played in his last couple games - he'll come to play tonight. Neither team has much of a bench, but overall the Pirates have the size (with Pope, Auda, Mobley and Geramipoor) to contend with WVU inside.
Bottom line, this is a nightmare match up for WVU, as Seton Hall has all the right pieces to counteract their strengths, plus the motivation coming off an ass-whipping by Syracuse to get it done tonight at home. Take Seton Hall over West Virginia in this Big East dust-up Friday.
4♦ SETON HALL
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Friday night takes you into the depths of mid-major college basketball, as I give you the South Dakota State Jackrabbits against the Oakland Golden Grizzlies in Summit League action. I've had my eye on the 'Rabbits ever since a preseason event in Macon, Georgia, where they knocked off Niagara, Sam Houston State and Mercer en route to the tourney title. Mercer was the home team, and to be able to take a team of farmboys into Georgia and knock off the host school on its own court by 13 points, well, let's just say it caught my attention.
The 'Rabbits just improved to 11-4 and remained perfect in league play with a 94-58 thumping of IPFW at home in Frost Arena, where tonight's game will take place, handing coach Scott Nagy his 300th victory. The game marked the fourth time in five games that at least five 'Rabbits scored in double figures - all South Dakota State wins.
The Jackrabbits are led by a kid named Nate Wolters, a stud from Minnesota who should easily come away with Summit League Player of the Year honors by season's end. He ranks 10th in the nation in scoring, with 21.5 points per game, while the team is 35th in the country with its 78.2 points per game average.
I admit it, I've been an advocate of Oakland during the preseason, but I've been waiting for conference play to get rolling with South Dakota State. The 'Rabbits are 6-1 against the spread, and they're coming into this game in sextuple revenge. Yes, that's not a typo - it means Oakland has won six straight meetings. But this year, the Jackrabbits are the best team in this conference, and it's time to turn the tables in this series.
Play the little known Jackrabbits (unknown, 'til now), as they roll to a double-digit victory over visiting Oakland.
4♦ SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Jeff Benton
Your Friday night freebie is the 76ers as the road favorite at Utah.
Philadelphia opened the new 66-game season on the road and this will be their third of five in a row away from home this year. After opening with a close loss at Portland, Philly was able to blast Phoenix at Phoenix, and I think they will have their way with Utah tonight in Salt Lake City.
The Jazz appear to be very unsettled, as Utah is off to an 0-2 start, and they have not been close in double-digit losses at the Lakers and at Denver. Home opener tonight for Utah, but with the Sixers one of the teams I expect to make some noise as the season advances, I don't feel the Jazz have a particular advantage tonight even with them playing on their home floor.
Doug Collins continues to get production from his young team, and Philadelphia makes it two in a row on the road in the win column both straight up and against the spread. Lay it.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
Your free winner tonight is going to be in the late bowl game, as I take a look at the total in the Insight Bowl, on the campus of Arizona State at Sun Devil Stadium. Believe it or not, I like this game to stay under the posted number.
The Big 10 and Big 12 lock horns tonight in beautiful weather, it's perfect for a physical showdown, and I think the Oklahoma Sooners are going dictate a tenacious style tonight, forcing the Iowa Hawkeyes to lock in their heels and play just the same.
Whether or not the Sooners can cover the big number is another question - I answer that with my teaser on my premium play - but I can tell you they're still capable of playing at a staunch level that will keep this total low. I admit, the Sooners have been a bit of a dichotomy on defense, allowing more than 40 points in three of their last six games, but then again, allowing 17 or less in five of their last nine.
Iowa rolls into this one in a good spot to challenge the Sooners for a bit, as Oklahoma ended up having a disappointed campaign when there were so many who thought they should be contending for a BCS title. The Hawkeyes can mix it up in the trenches, and will challenge Oklahoma for much of the first half, mark my words.
Iowa comes in on under runs of 4-1 in December, 4-1 on neutral fields, 7-2 against the Big 12 and 17-6 when catching points. The Sooners are on under runs of 10-2 in December, 4-1 after a straight-up loss - and even though it's been awhile since they've played, it's still pride with this defense - and 10-4 on grass.
This one stays low tonight.
3♦ Iowa/Oklahoma UNDER
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Temple/ Delaware Over 138.5: What's this, the Owls are playing the uptempo game these days? That seems to be true. The Owls come in averaging a healthy 75.5 ppg and have averaged 59.8 shots per game, which is 39th in the country. In their last 5 games the Owls have put up 76.8 ppg on 44.1% shooting overall and they have hit over 40% from long range. Normally when ya thought of the Owls you would think of defense, but that is not the case this year as they have allowed 70.8 ppg on 44.5% shooting. The Blue Hens come in averaging 68.5 ppg overall, but that offense really picks up at home where they have averaged 73.5 ppg on a solid 46.8% shooting. Delaware has been average at best on defense as they have allowed 67.7 ppg and 67 ppg, but I see the Owls strong offense being able to tag the Blue Hens for at least their seasonal average of 75 points. The Owls last 5 games have averaged 148.2 ppg and that about where i see this one ending up. KEY TRENDS--- TEMPLE is 11-2 OVER in December games over the last 2 seasons and 16-5 OVER after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NC WILMINGTON -4 over Furman: The Paladins have started the year as 6-6 but they have been night and day when it comes to playing on the road vs at home. Furman has gone 4-1 at home this year but on the road they have gone just 1-5 in their last 6 and have been outscored by 8.8 ppg in the process. NC Wilmington has spent a great deal of the early part of the year on the road and they have a 3-7 record to show for it. At home they have gone 1-2 but in their 2 losses (Davidson and Marshall) they last by just 3 and 5 points respectively. The Seahawks have also lost by just 9 points at both Wake Forest and Maryland, lost by 2 at Toledo and beat Illinois State on the road, so not only has this team been tested but they have shown that they are not far off from turning things around. Playing at home for just their 4th time all year, vs an inferior foe, should energize this team enough to come up with a big win.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Air Force/ Eastern Michigan Under 113: Air force has played some higher than normal scoring games of late, but i feel that will change tonight as they play an EMU team that really likes the slow pace as well. Air Force has scored 66.7 ppg on 45.7% shooting overall this year, but away from home they have put up just 60.3 ppg. Eastern Michigan has really struggled on offense as they have averaged just 54.7 ppg overall, including just 53.2 ppg away from home and a mere 49.2 ppg in their last 5 games. EMU has also shot a pathetic 34.9% and that wont get it done vs an Air Force team that hhas allowed just 59.8 ppg on 38.3% shooting this year. EMU has not been too bad on defense as they have allowed just v64 ppg on 43.2% shooting, but that may be due more to the slow pace they play. Speaking of slow pace these two teams really like it as Air Force is 343rd in the nation in shots per game (47.4), while EMU is 308th (50.4). Unlike the Oakland game bellow, this will be a game where the shot clock is in play on just about every possession. I look for a game in the mid 100's here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under in a Neutral court game where the total is 129.5 or less - in a game involving 2 slow-down teams (<=55 shots/game) with an average rebounding team (AIR FORCE) (+/-3 reb/game) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -6 reb/game). This play is 26-4 since 1997.
2 UNIT PLAY
DUKE -21 over Eastern Michigan: The Blue Devils have been dynamite at home as they have gone 5-0 and have outscored teams by 21 ppg there. Duke has put up 86.4 ppg and have shot 53.2% from the floor in their home games and they will be taking on a WMU team that has struggled on defense away from as they have allowed 82.5 ppg on 46.1% shooting on the road. The Broncos just don't have enough offense or defense to hang with the mighty Blue Devils here. Look for duke to win by 25+.
1 UNIT PLAY
Oakland/ South Dakota State Over 173: When these two teams get together they have fun as the last 3 meetings have produced 197 ppg, with the last 2 games topping the 200 point mark. Oakland scores a ton, but due to their style of play they allow over 80 ppg. SDSU doesn't score as much as Oakland overall, but they really play well at home putting up 89.3 ppg, while overall they have allowed 70.8 ppg. This will be a fun one to watch.
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (1-1 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well Ihave organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the system play has a good shot at covering or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here.
Play Under in Neutral court games if a team (E MICHIGAN) is off 2 consecutive road losses of 10 or more and they are a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season. This play is 51-15 since 1997 and 3-1 this year. Play Under 113 in the Eastern Michigan/ Air Force game.
Play Against Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (JAMES MADISON) that average +/- 3.5 PPG differential and they scored 60 or less in their last game vs a team that is outscored by -3.5 to -8 PPG differential on the year. This play is 26-5 the last 5 seasons, including 2-0 this year. Play on Stetson +7.5 over James Madison.
Jeff Scott Sports
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (2-0 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well Ihave organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the sysytem play has a good shot at coveing or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here. I just like 2 plays tonight.
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - good ball handling team from last season - committed <=14 turnovers/game and playing a division opponents in first month of the season. This plays is 42-12 the last 5 seasons, including 8-2 this year. Play Memphis/ Houston Under 196
Play Under - Any team (CHARLOTTE) that was a marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, and are off 1 or more consecutive losses. This play is 73-36 the last 5 seasons. Play Charlotte/ Orlando Under 184
Andrew Lange
George Mason at College of Charleston
Play: College of Charleston -3.5
Laying -2.5 to -4 with home teams can be tricky because in most cases, the two teams involved are evenly matched and the only thing separating them is a sometimes phantom home court advantage. But in this particular matchup, I see the favorite as the legitimately better team while also owning a home court advantage that is real. College of Charleston was not expected to do much this season after losing a host of seniors including all-everything guard Andrew Goudelock. But 12 games into the season it looks as if this year's edition isn't too far removed 2010-11's 26-win squad. And that type of success has been the norm under head coach Bobby Cremins who has produced 22+ win campaigns in four of his five seasons in Charleston and looks headed for a sixth in 2012. The Cougars have no seriously blemishes on their resume with wins over Clemson, UMass and Tennessee. Their two competitive losses to Central Florida and at Louisville are nothing to be ashamed of. The offense has scored one point per possession in every game but two and the only knock that I see is a defense that at times can be soft on the interior. George Mason meanwhile came into this year with high expectations off a 27-win campaign and a host of solid returnees. The difference though is head coach Jim Larranaga left for Miami and the Patriots brought in Paul Hewitt who has been a .500 coach for the better part of the past half decade. Mason's resume this year doesn't exactly get the blood pumping with overtime losses to Florida International and Florida Atlantic. They also lost at Virginia and at home against Duquesne – two of only a few truly quality opponents. And despite playing the 320th ranked non-conference schedule, the Patriots went 7-4 against those teams and topped a point per possession in only five of those 11 games. Lastly, don't forget C of C's home court, which has witnessed only two losses over the last three years – one of which last year to a 22-win Clemson squad that reached the NCAA Tournament.
Hollywood Sports
Wizards at Bucks
Prediction: Under
The Wizards (0-2) come off a 101-83 loss at Atlanta on Wednesday -- and the Under is a decisive 45-20-1 in their last 66 games played with one day in-between contests. Washington has also played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total. Milwaukee (1-1) comes off their 98-95 win at Minnesota on Tuesday -- and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total following a victory. The Bucks have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And the Under is 18-7-1 in Milwaukee's last 26 games played at home. Take the Under in this one.