Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 31,2010

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota @ Michigan State
PICK: Michigan State

A quick check of the Big Ten standings finds the 11-1 Golden Gophers looking down at pre-season Top 10 choice Michigan State (8-4)… but not for long. While the Gophers have a couple of quality wins against North Carolina and West Virginia, neither of those two schools is currently in the Top 25. And neither compares to top-ranked Duke, No. 4 UConn, No. 5 Syracuse or even No. 18 Texas – the four losses on State’s slate. While a victory over Washington is the lone quality win for Izzo and company, that tough opening schedule should have them more than ready for this conference lid-lifter. As it is, the Spartans are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in conference home openers. Michigan State is also a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS at home in this series when seeking revenge and tonight’s payback comes in the form of an early Big Ten tourney loss to the Gophers last season. Minnesota has never performed well at the Breslin Center (0-11 SU, 2-9 ATS) and their 1-10 ATS mark on the road versus a foe with conference revenge says they won’t start on the last day of year. Lay the points as Sparty rings in the New Year and improves to 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in this one-sided series since 2007. We recommend a 1-unit play on Michigan State.

Jim Feist

Central Florida vs. Georgia
Play: Under 55

Central Florida is primarily a running team, averaging 191 yards rushing behind junior RB Ronnie Weaver (890 yards, 4.8 ypc) and freshman QB Jeff Godfrey (13 TDs, 6 INTs). That doesn't bod well against this Georgia defensive line. After a 1-4 start to the season, the Bulldogs are on a 5-2 SU/3-3 ATS run and the defense allows just 23 ppg. Central Florida's strength is on the defensive line, so look for a lower scoring bowl game than oddsmakers think. Play Central Florida/Georgia Under the total.

Craig Trapp

Central Florida vs. Georgia
Play: Under 53.5

No one is giving this solid Central Florida team any chance. This defense is very good and Georgia will find this out very quickly. CF can't outscore Georgia so expect the to run the ball and really grind this game out. Georgia might win but it won't be in a shootout, in fact this one is going to be under by two TD's!

Rob Vinciletti

Northern Arizona vs. Montana State
Play: Montana State +1

Montana St is off a nice win vs Weber. St tonight they take on Northern Arizona knowing they are 5-0 at home winning by an average 19 points per game. They have done well as a short home dog of late. N. Arizona is 3-14 ats with 1 or less day of rest the past few years and a horrendous 7-26 when playing teams with a winning record. Not a good idea laying points in this spot. Take Montana St tonight plus the points.

Tom Stryker

Washington @ Indiana
PICK: Indiana -6

Just two days ago, Indiana (+2') strolled into Washington and left with a crushing 104-90 defeat in its pocket. The Pacers haven't forgotten about that beating and they'll be primed for revenge this afternoon.

The fact that this game is being played in Indianapolis is huge for the home team. In their own backyard, the Pacers have dominated the Wizards to the tune of 28-6 SU and 21-11-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings. In this role priced as a favorite of -5 or more, Indy improves to a rewarding 19-7-2 ATS!

If you want to go against the Wizards, the time to do it is after they've picked up a straight up victory. According to my NBA database, there's nothing magical about Washington in this specific situation! In their last 54 games coming off a straight up win, the Wizards are a shocking 9-45 SU and 16-38 ATS including a bankroll-busting 0-15 SU and 1-14 ATS in this role entering off a blowout victory of 11 points or more.

Off three consecutive losses to Memphis, Boston and Washington, Indiana won't be in a good mood when it takes the floor inside Conseco Fieldhouse. Matched up against a Wizards bunch that has struggled on foreign courts posting a woeful 0-16 SU and 6-10 ATS in their last 16 as a guest dating back to last season, the Pacers will ring in the New Year with a sweet blowout revenge victory. Take Indiana.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New Orleans Hornets at Boston Celtics

Hornets are only 5-10 SU on the road and check in with an 0-3 ATS mark off a home loss as they visit Boston on New Year's Eve. The buzz surrounding the team's 8-0 SU/ATS start is now a distant memory as they've gone just 7-15 ATS at the betting window ever since. Celtics return home off a road loss in Detroit and are 11-1 ATS off a double-digit away defeat.

Play on: Boston

EZWINNERS

Central Florida Knights +6.5

Georgia's defense against the run forgot to show up in their last two games of the season as they allowed 726 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground against Auburn and Georgia Tech. In this game the Bulldogs defense is going to have their hands full with a UCF team that averages 192.5 yards on the ground with the 25th ranked rushing offense in the FBS. The Bulldogs offense was very good to end the season, but I like the Knights to do a good job of slowing down this Georgia offense. UCF's defense was 12th in the nation allowing only 18 points per game and I look for them to come up big in this game. Take the points.

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS

2★ CLEMSON

First meeting. USF is making its 6th str bowl appearance but its 1st under HC Holtz. They are 3-2 SU/ATS all-time but are 0-2 SU/ATS vs BCS tms in bowls being outscored 70-21 (Oreg, NCSt). This is USF’s 2nd trip to the Car Care Bowl losing 14-0 to NCSt in their 1st ever bowl in ‘05. Holtz is 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in bowls and LY his EC tm (+7’) lost a heartbreaker in OT 20-17 to Ark despite a 393-283 yd edge. Clem is 16-16 all-time in bowls and this is their 6th str bowl (2-3 SU/1-4 ATS) and 1st Car Care Bowl. HC Swinney is 1-1 SU/ATS in bowls beating KY LY 21-13 (-6’). The Car Care Bowl targeted CU due to their fans’ reputation for traveling well and the Tigers should certainly have the crowd edge here as CU is just 130 miles away. Both tms faced Miami (FL) with CU losing 30-21 (outgained 376-311) and USF winning 23-20 in OT despite being outgained 353-294 (3-1 TO edge). CU is 3-6 SU/4-5 ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 19-18 and outgained 327-312 while USF is 2-5 SU/ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 21-15 and outgained 319-274. USF is 3-2 SU/ATS on the road TY winning 2 gms in OT outright as dogs. CU is 1-4 SU/3-2 ATS on the road but their 4 losses were by an avg of 4.3 ppg incl a 27-24 OT loss to #1 Aub.
There was great anticipation at USF after Holtz took over in Jan. The Bulls played 6 gms decided by a TD or less (3 wins incl 2 in OT) and captured their 1st ever win over Miami. One sore spot all year was the erratic play of QB Daniels. He has suffered numerous inj’s TY (missed finale) but is expected to return here. Daniels threw 7 of his 12 int vs FL and WV, both gms that were closer than the final suggests. Holtz wanted the RB’s to get more of the carries TY and that comb with Daniels’ inj caused his rush #’s to plummet (-535 yds). RB Plancher stepped up teaming with Murray as a solid RB duo. The WR corps was banged up with ‘09 st’rs Griffin and Love missing the entire yr. Bogan became the top threat with converted QB Landi #2. The OL avg 6’3” 301 with 3 Sr st’rs and paved the way for 149 ypg rush (4.0) while all’g 24 sks (8.1%). Overall USF is #89 on off and #41 on def. The DL starters avg 6’3” 278 with 2 Sr st’rs and all’d 132 rush ypg (3.6) with 17 of the tm’s 28 sks. USF’s sk leader DE Marshall (brkn foot) missed the L/5 gms but could ret here. LB Williams leads the tm in tkls and tfl. USF is #55 in our pass D rankings all’g 188 ypg (59%) with a 16-13 ratio vs a very soft slate of opposing QB’s. USF is #60 in our ST rankings with a low net punt avg (34.4, last in BE) but strong ret specialists with KR Lindsey #2 in the BE in avg and PR Mitchell #4. PK Bonani ret’d from a severe inj TY and was nearly perfect inside the 50 (16-17).

CU began the season 3-3 for the 9th time S/’95 and 3rd year in a row. After two easy wins, they faced their toughest test in the entire month of Sept when they traveled to Aub. After punching Aub in the mouth, CU all’d a comeback and fell in OT, which started a streak of 3 str losses. They faced two Top 25 non-conf teams (only ACC tm to do so TY) for the 2nd time S/‘89 and they’re believed to be the 1st tm in the reg ssn to play 2 non-conf teams that played for a conf champ (SC/Aub). The off comes in rated #64. Colorado Rockies #1 DC QB Parker struggled with int TY but mended his rift with Swinney after being benched vs SC and will start the last gm of his career here. RB Ellington was leading the ACC in rush TD’s and all-purp yds when he was inj’d vs NCSt but is OFY. Harper has filled in nicely, putting up 343 yds (5.1) the L/3. Fr Hopkins set CU records for rec’s and rec yds by a frosh. The OL (6’6” 313, 1 Sr) paved the way for 146 ypg (4.1) and all’d 16 sks (4.3%). The DL (6’4” 290) totalled 25.5 of the tm’s 28 sks, led by ACC DPY/Nagurski winner Bowers (15.5). The DL is constantly harassing opposing QB’s, tallying 89 qbh. The LB unit is led by Hawkins. The secondary ranks #20 all’g 192 ypg (52%) with a 16-14 ratio. Top tkl’r McDaniel enters this gm two int away from the CU record. Both CB Brewer and S Hall have IR TD’s TY. The D is ranked #13 overall while the ST’s come in at #9 led by Ray Guy semifinalist P Zimmerman (only ACC P in final 10). They avg 11.0 on PR while the PR D all’s 5.8 ypr and in the last 6 gms allowed 17 yds! (all vs SC in last gm). The KR’s avg 23.6 ypr with 1 TD while the KR D all’s 20.8.

There’s a reason Clemson’s last 8 gms have gone Under the total as no Tigers gms have topped 40 pts during that stretch. If Clemson’s offense comes to play, this could become a blowout. USF will have either a young QB or the inconsistent Daniels under C and either could possibly implode vs this front 7. USF had a pair of impressive bowl gms but those were vs MAC and CUSA teams. This year against the two quality D’s of Florida and WV, they were outscored 58-20. FORECAST: Clemson by 8

2★ NOTRE DAME / MIAMI UNDER

These ‘80’s era rivals both make their first trip to El Paso to face each other for the first time S/’90 which resulted in the quickest sellout in Sun Bowl history. NO leads the all-time series 15-7-1 but UM has won 6 of the L/8, many with Title implications. ND ended its 9 gm bowl losing streak in their last postssn gm, a 49-21 win over Hawaii in the ‘08 Hawaii Bowl and they are 2-8 ATS in their L/10 bowls. Kelly is 2-1 SU/0-3 ATS in bowls. As of presstime OL coach Stoutland will coach this gm with the rest of the staff intact. UM last won a bowl in ‘06 and is 1-3 ATS its L/4. ND should have a solid crowd edge although UM sold its allotment of 8,000. Incl USC ND went 6-5 SU/5-4-2 ATS vs bowl elig foes outscoring them on avg 26-21 and outgaining them by 24 ypg. UM went 5-4 SU/4-5 ATS vs bowl elig foes outscoring them on avg 26-22 (+81 ypg). UM fielded a young squad as 20 frosh saw the field TY (still 18 upperclassmen st’rs) while ND has 15 upperclassmen incl 7 Sr’s. Both tms ply’d Pitt TY as UM covered as an AF (-3’) 31-3 and ND won 23-17 as a 6 pt HF.

ND went into the yr with just 1 non-true Fr scholarship QB in Crist. After Crist tore his patella vs Tulsa, Rees was forced into the lineup leading ND to 3 str wins. This is the 1st time S/’71 that the ND RB’s haven’t had a 100 yd gm as leading rusher Wood became the st’r after Allen underwent career ending surg as ND lost its #1 QB and #1 RB for the 1st time in a season S/’66. To make matters worse top TE Rudolph only ply’d in the 1st 6 before being KO’d. #2 rec Riddick missed 4 of L/5 (inj) but ply’d in the finale. Four of the 5 OL started every gm and the OG play improved when they moved back to a 3 pt stance. ND (6’4” 307, 2 Sr) all’d 20 sk (4.4%) although they finished just #96 NCAA in rush off. ND finished with our #46 off and #18 D. Despite losing their top player NT Ian Williams (knee, CS), ND all’d 2 TD in their L/4 and held B2B opp (Utah & Army) without a TD for the 1st time since the ‘88 National Champ ssn. The 22 pts all’d in the L/3 is the fewest in a 3 gm stretch S/’93. The leading tkl’r is LB Te’o. ND is #34 in pass eff D (206, 62%, 9-14) led by S Smith. Kelly’s L/2 Cincy teams finished #1 and #8 in our ST rankings but surprisingly, ND struggled to find a KR until true Fr Jackson emerged and the unit finished #47. Primary PR Goodman avg’d just 1.4. ND all’d just 6.1 on PR and 19.3 on KR. P Turk was inconsistent but did manage to land 23 inside the 20. The star unquestionably was Groza finalist Ruffer who hit all 15 of his FG att’s.

Former HC Shannon spent much of the season defending his QB, Jacory Harris and criticizing his WR’s. Harris suffered a shoulder inj vs Pitt, then admitted he was also playing with a groin inj later in the season (missed 3). Vs UVA he took a nasty hit and was KO’d for the MD gm. Fourth string true Fr QB Morris led the Canes to a couple of wins and remained the st’r despite Harris being cleared. After Morris’ 1st int vs USF, Shannon pulled him and both saw action in the finale. Sr RB Berry improved his stats TY and speedy rFr Miller emerged as a solid #2. Future NFL’er Hankerson became the 1st 1,000 yd rec here S/’02 (Andre Johnson) and passed Michael Irving’s record for TD rec’s in a single ssn. The OL avg 6’5” 321 with 1 Sr st’r and paved the way for 190 ypg rush (4.9) while all’g just 16 sks (4.0%). Overall UM finished with our #22 off and #5 D and the Canes lead the NCAA in tfl. The DL avg 6’4” 289 with 1 Sr st’r led by Bailey (7 sk), Ojomo (5) and Vernon (6). LB’s McCarthy and Spence are the #1 and 2 tkl’rs. UM has our #7 pass eff D all’g 146 ypg (49%) with a 7-16 ratio. 1st Tm ACC Harris locked down the 1 CB spot and he had nearly as many pd as he had passes comp vs him while Hill held down the other CB spot and led the tm with 11 pd. 1st Tm ACC P Bosher handles all K duties and boomed 17 punts of 50+ while also nailing a 51 yd FG at Ohio St (set UM rec’d for consec FG’s). Johnson leads with a 21.1 avg on KR although Miller only has 2 less yds (on 3 less att) and a TD. Benjamin is the top PR but only avg 5.0 ypr although he’s had a PR TD. The Canes allow 21.5 ypr on KR and 8.9 ypr on PR (only avg 4.8 ypr).

If you mention Miami, Notre Dame or Brian Kelly, you think of offense. However, times have changed and both tms have been led by defensive units which rank in our top 18. Injuries have plagued Miami and now they expect to be led by their OL coach which would favor a more conservative game plan. ND has not topped 28 pts in their L/5 gms but their D finished on an incredible run holding Utah, Army and USC to 22 total points and an avg of 234 ypg. The Canes have gone 0-6-1 Over/Under to finish the year while the Irish have gone Under 4 straight and we’ll call for another Under here. FORECAST: UNDER 47

4★ GEORGIA

These 2 met one time previously (‘99), a gm in which UCF (+27’) nearly pulled the upset (24-23) in Athens vs a #11 ranked GA squad. This is UCF’s 3rd bowl in 4 ssns (2nd Liberty Bowl). UCF was clearly the most dominant CUSA tm TY going 8-1 incl a win over Mem in this very stadium less than a month ago. UCF HC O’Leary is 2-5 all-time in bowl matchups but does have some history vs GA from his days coaching at GT (3-4 record). UCF has 11 Sr’s among 15 upperclassmen st’rs and has ply’d 5 bowl elig tms going 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) outgaining those foes by 344-333 ypg (24-24 avg score). GA (14th consec bowl) has played B2B non-BCS/non-NYD bowls after a string of 7 str prestigious bowls. Overall GA HC Richt has gone 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in bowls winning and covering the L/4. GA struggled on the road TY with a 1-5 SU/ATS record incl neutral site OT loss to FL. GA has 7 Sr’s among 15 upperclassmen st’rs and has ply’d 8 bowl elig tms going 3-5 SU (2-6 ATS). GA was outgained by a 402-368 margin vs those foes.

UCF’s #69 off avg’d 34 ppg and 384 ypg. The biggest story early on however was at QB as true Fr Godfrey took over the starting reins in wk 3 from Calabrese. Godfrey had an All-Conf ssn while Calabrese was still used as a change of pace Wildcat before an ACL inj in Oct. Stanford trans Crow will be Godfrey’s bkup here but saw very little time. Starting RB Harvey tore his ACL and RS leaving the job to the duo of Weaver and Murray who actually surpassed Harvey’s 1,109 mark of LY. While UCF is more run-oriented, three WR’s posted 470+ yds giving the young QB plenty of options. The OL (6’5” 305) is led by 1st Tm CUSA RT Reid who helped pave the way for 193 ypg (4.4) while all’g 20 sks. The Knight def (#39) led CUSA in ttl def as they surrendered 18 ppg and 318 ypg. In fact, the group didn’t allow more than 326 yds over the 1st 7. The DL (6’3” 261) is led by ‘09 DPY Miller and all’d 110 ypg rush (3.4) while accounting for 25 of the tm’s 29 sks. The LB unit is led by 3rd Tm CUSA Young who led the tm in tfl. UCF’s secondary all’d 208 ypg (54%) with a 21-15 ratio finishing with our #13 pass D ranking. The premier player on the unit is CB Robinson who has now earned All-Conf honors in 3 consec ssns. While the off and def have been solid in UCF’s run through CUSA, the kicker pos was a pain in O’Leary’s side all yr as they hit just 10-20 FG’s forcing the Knights to go for it on 4th down a few more times than they wanted. McDuffie finished 2nd in the nation in KR’s while Robinson bolstered the tm’s PR unit finishing #10 in the NCAA. All together UCF finished with our #1 ST ranking.

This hasn’t been the typical ssn for GA as they are used to playing on NY’s Day or in BCS bowls and they were lucky to escape with a 42-34 win over rival GT in the finale to land here. RFr QB Murray played surprisingly well finishing #3 in the SEC in pass ypg and #4 in pass eff finishing ahead of veteran QB’s like SC’s Garcia and Miss’ Masoli. The run gm struggled (148 ypg, 4.2) with inj’s and susp to the top 2 Ealey and King. The largest problem on off was that WR Green was susp the 1st 4 gms (sold a jersey) and the tm went 1-3 without him. When he ret’d in gm 5 vs Colo, he wasn’t in gm shape and the altitude also bothered him and he didn’t play the full gm which gave GA its 1st 4 gm losing streak S/’90. With Green healthy, GA went 5-2 to finish the yr and he is #2 in the SEC in rec ypg (96.4) and is expected to leave early and be the 1st WR taken in the ‘11 draft. The veteran OL was shuffled 5x’s during the ssn but settled on the same 5 st’rs for the L/3 gms. The OL avg 6’5” 311 with 2 Sr st’rs and all’d 22 sks (6.9%). Overall the off finished #18. The #27 D adjusted to new DC Grantham’s 3-4 as the ssn went on but all’d 400+ yds off in 4 of their L/5 gms. GA actually all’d 23 more rush ypg than LY (149 ypg) but their ppg all’d went down (from 25.9 ppg in ‘09 to 23.1 ppg TY) for the 1st time in 4 yrs. AA LB Houston leads the SEC in sks and is #2 in tfl per gm. GA is #46 in our pass D rankings all’g 187 ypg (55%) with a 15-14 ratio. The #7 ST unit boasts ‘09 Ray Guy winning P Butler and strong-legged K Walsh with solid return units.

There are times to play against an SEC team, especially if they fall to the Liberty Bowl. At 6-6 GA has 2 options: either a positive finish or a losing season, which would put added pressure on HC Richt. The checklist shows the disparity between these tms and while UCF’s D can potentially slow GA, they will not stop them. UCF’s offense has looked impressive but that was vs CUSA opps and on the year they faced 5 defenses in the bottom 20 and found their success without having to face a D rated in our Top 50.
FORECAST: Georgia by 21

1★ SOUTH CAROLINA

The Chick-fil-A Bowl will pit the runners-up of the SEC and ACC for the 1st time ever. This is the 19th meeting between these two (1st S/’91, FSU 15-3), but the first time they’ve met in a bowl gm. Although they weren’t the ACC’s top pick in the pressn, big things were exp from FSU TY. They lost two close gms (on a fmbl and a “wide right”) however and had to rely on a MD win over NCSt to get to the ACC Title gm, where they lost to VT. The Chick-fil-A Bowl has had its eye on FSU for awhile, since FSU’s last trip to this bowl was in ‘83 (still playing it outside). This will be HC Fisher’s 1st bowl. The Noles went 7-3 SU but just 4-6 ATS vs bowl tms TY winning by an avg of 29-23 but being outgained 375-364. Spurrier is 7-9 SU/ATS all-time in bowls and just 1-3 SU/ATS at SC. SC is 4-11 all-time in bowls and their L/2 bowls have had embarrassing outcomes with blowout losses to Iowa (31-10) and Conn (20-7) LY. SC ply’d its last gm in this building, another embarrassing blowout loss to Aub in the SEC Title gm (56-17) so this is their chance for redemption. Overall SC has faced an incredible 11 bowl tms TY (Aub 2x) with a 7-4 SU/6-5 ATS record outscoring those tms 33-25 and outgaining them 384-371. SC was 3-3 SU/ATS on the road (6-3 as AF under Spurrier). The Chick-fil-A is expecting its 14th consec sellout and both tms should be well represented as it’s just a 5 hr drive from Tallahassee and 3.5 hr drive from Columbia.

For the first time since ‘00 (Chris Weinke), FSU began the season touting a Heisman candidate in Ponder. He bruised a tricep vs Okla, then ended up needing fluid drained from his elbow and only topped 250 pass yds in a gm once TY. He DNP the ACC Title gm, but should be ready to go here after resting his elbow for over a month. FSU’s RB’s were banged up towards the end of the year as Thomas missed the L/3 and Jones was bothered by an ankle sprain. Third Tm All-ACC Haulstead had 20 fewer rec’s than the top guy (Reed) but found the EZ 4 more times. FSU’s OL (6’4” 298, 2 Sr) was only able to start 77% of the gms together. They gave up 25 sks (6.6%) but paved the way for 168 rush ypg (4.8) behind 4x All-ACC Hudson (only 7th 4x All-ACC in conf history). The Noles have our #21 off. FSU’s #20 D leads the NCAA in sks with 46. The DL all’s 128 ypg (3.3) totaling 33.5 of the tm’s sks led by 1st Tm ACC Jenkins’ 13 (T-#3 NCAA). LB’s Bradham and Smith are the tm’s #1 and #2 tkl’rs. The Noles have our #23 pass eff D all’g 221 ypg (58%) with a 16-12 ratio, led by 2nd Tm ACC Rhodes and 3rd Tm ACC Reid. FSU’s #23 ST’s has provided highs (walk-off 55 yd FG vs Clem) and some lows (“wide right” vs NC). PR/KR Reid avg 9.0 on PR with 1 TD and 24.1 on KR (long 55) but has not found the EZ. The PR D allows 7.4 ypr while the KR D allows 21.6.

SC earned its 1st berth in the SEC Title gm since joining the league in ‘92 and several major improvements on offense made that possible. First, QB Garcia finally had a more mature attitude and settled down in the pocket making fewer mistakes. Prob the most important improvement was at RB where PS#1 RB Lattimore took over and changed SC’s whole gameplan taking pressure off of Garcia. Suddenly the oft-maligned OL looked better, and SC was no longer scratching for pts like in years past (+11.4 ppg over LY’s 20.6). Soph WR Alshon Jeffery had an outstanding ssn finishing in the top 3 for the Biletnikoff Awd as the NCAA’s top receiver. The OL avg 6’5” 303 with 2 Sr st’rs and thanks in part to Lattimore and in part to new OL coach Elliott improved from 121 rush ypg (3.6) LY to 156 ypg (4.1) TY while allowing 9 less sks (28, 7.9%). Overall the offense is #27 and the defense is #24 in our rankings. The DL avg 6’4” 275 with 2 Sr. It was a disappointing inj-riddled yr for DE Cliff Matthews but he played through his inj’s and the DL only all’d 104 rush ypg (3.2) which was #1 in the SEC. SC also leads the SEC in sks with 39 (+11 from LY). The LB’s lost st’r Wilson after 1 gm but SPUR Allen was a nice surprise with 10 tfl. The secondary was the problem all year other than 1st Tm SEC CB Gilmore who led the tm in tkls. SC is #93 in our pass D rankings all’g 254 ypg (63%) with a 22-9 ratio and was forced to go to a walk-on at times at the other CB spot after ‘09 All-SEC Culliver was lost for the yr in gm 8. The ST are #62 with K/P Lanning solid in both areas but the returns tms are below avg.
Fisher has done as expected, bringing the Noles back onto the national stage. They have, however, lost 3 of their L/6 but have to be pleased with a 9 win ssn incl a convincing win over rival Fla while also beating Mia by 28. Spurrier almost saw his dream realized but they were beaten by a better team in the SEC Champ. Instead of expecting a letdown, we feel they’ll bounce back convincingly after being out of that gm early. Rankings-wise, these tms are fairly even but in a close game, we’ll side with the SEC tm almost everyday. FORECAST: S Carolina by 6

NORTHCOAST POWER PLAYS

MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL Friday, December 31, 2010 @ 12:00 pm • ESPN
USF (7-5) Charlotte, North Carolina CLEMSON (6-6)
Both teams have relied on their defenses this season and the Tigers just do it a little better. PP
is forecasting Clemson with a 346-261 yd edge and they also have a substantial ST edge.
4* CLEMSON 22 USF 14

SUN BOWL Friday, December 31, 2010 @ 2:00 pm • CBS
NOTRE DAME (7-5) El Paso, Texas MIAMI, FL (7-5)

PP gives the Hurricane a 386-309 yd edge with a combined 41 points. We like the “under” here
as Miami has gone 0-6-1 O/U the L7 gms while ND has gone “under” 4 straight games.
4* UNDER THE TOTAL

LIBERTY BOWL Friday, December 31, 2010 @ 3:30 pm • ESPN
UCF (10-3) Memphis, Tennessee GEORGIA (6-6)

This forecast makes it easy. We have an SEC team needing a W for a winning season with PP
forecasting a 421-269 yd edge. UCF has made great strides but this is poor matchup for them.
4* GEORGIA 34 UCF 20

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL Friday, December 31, 2010 @ 7:30 pm • ESPN
FLORIDA STATE (9-4) Atlanta, Georgia SOUTH CAROLINA (9-4)

PP has SC forecasted with a 401-359 yd edge but it also calls for the Seminoles to keep it under
the number. Both teams lost their conf championship and we’ll see which can bounce back bettter.
NO PLAY: SOUTH CAROLINA 27 FLORIDA STATE 26

POINTWISE

PROPHECY: NOTRE DAME 22 - Miami 20 RATING: 6

They meet again. From '71 thru '90, these 2 collegiate gridiron icons met 19
times, but amazingly, haven't faced each other since. For the Irish of Notre
Dame, the road to regain their former status has been rocky, to say the least.
Oh, they've posted a pair of 10-3 campaigns since '93's 11-1 record, which put
an end to a brilliant 6-yr run of 12-0, 12-1, 9-3, 10-3, 10-1-1, & 11-1-1. Just a
cumulative record of 48-48 in 8 of the last 10 seasons. Davie, Willingham, &
Weiss (19-6 first 2 years, 16-21 last 3) haven't been the answer. This year,
they've moved the ball fairly well, reaching at least 20 pts in all but 2 games, vs
11-1 Stanford, & in a 367-106 RY deficit loss to Navy. As noted above, those
367 RYs by the Middies are a far cry from the 127 RYpg allowed by the Irish in
their other 11 contests. ND suffered a major blow with the loss of QB Crist in
a 28-27 loss to Tulsa on Oct 30. But his replacement, frosh Rees is at 63%,
with 905 yds & 10 TDs, leading a 3-0 windup, both SU & ATS. But overland,
the Irish rank just 96th, never topping 155 yds. The 'Canes were hoping for
more this year, with early wins of 31-3 & 30-21 at Pitt & Clemson seemingly
bearing that out. But they followed that with an inexplicable 45-17 home loss
to FloridaSt, & later on lost at 4-8 Virginia. Hot-&-cold QB Harris (14/12) has
been hit by the injury bug, but is okay for this contest. RBs Berry & Miller
combined for 1,498 yds & 11 TDs, for a decided edge over the anemic running
game of the Irish. The 'Canes will go it without HC Shannon, who got the axe,
after losing their home finale to SoFla in OT, so offensive line coach Stoutland
will be on the sidelines. The dog is 6-1 ATS in Miami bowl games, so Irish nod.

PROPHECY: SOUTH FLORIDA 17 - Clemson 16 RATING: 5

Eleven bowls in twelve years. That about describes the consistent success of
the Tigers of Clemson, who are making their initial visit to this particular bowl,
which is a home game of sorts, for the ACC entrant. A year ago, they rode the
brilliance of C.J.Spiller to a 21-13 win & resultant 1½ pt cover, over Kentucky,
in the Music City Bowl. That snapped an 0-3 bowl run for Clemson, with one
of those setbacks coming at the hands of Kentucky in the '06 Music City Bowl.
So a bit of revenge in '09. Note that the last 5 Clemson bowls have seen final
scores of 19-10, 28-20, 23-20, 26-21, 21-13. Right, low scoring, tight affairs.
And that just about sums up this Tiger season, which has seen finals of 30-21,
21-16, 16-10, 14-13, & 16-13 in 5 of its 8 ACC contests. As the above stats
show, CU is hardly an offensive juggernaut, ranking 73, 82, 86, & 81 in run,
pass, total, & scoring "O". But defensively, they rank 22nd in total as well as
9th in scoring, with that stop unit anchored by DE Bowers (15½ sacks). Note
losing in OT to 13-0 Auburn, & on the final play at FlaSt. Competitive. For the
Bulls of South Florida, this marks their 6th consecutive bowl campaign, & thus
far, they stand at 3-2, both SU & ATS. That includes a 14-0 loss to NCSt as 4
pt dogs in the '05 Meineke. Skip Holtz has taken over the reins of a program
built by Jim Leavitt, & he is bowl tested (2-2 ATS with EastCaro the past 4 yrs).
Much like CU, SoFla relies on its "D" (19th in scoring, 20th in total), as its "O"
is sporadic: 31, 9, 6, 38, 28, 24, 10, 23, 16 pts in its last 9 games. QB Daniels
is mobile, which is essential vs the Clemson "D", but is just 9/12 (CU's Parker:
12/10). The spot is minimal, but the Bulls have hung tough in all games but 2.

PROPHECY: GEORGIA 41 - Central Florida 30 RATING: 2

Talk about your balanced offenses. Over the course of the season, the Knights
of Central Florida ran for 2,502 yds, & passed for 2,493 yds. Good enough for
a spot in the C-USA title game, & eventual 17-7 win over SMU for the outright
conference title. Under George O'Leary, the Knights are becoming a holiday
fixture, with this their 4th such appearance in the last 6 years. Incidentally,
O'Leary posted an 0-11 log in his first season at the helm ('04), before turning
it all around. Well, not entirely around, as the Knights are yet to emerge with a
bowl win, losing 49-48 in OT (missed PAT) in the '05 Hawaii, 10-3 (4 TOs) in
the '07 Liberty, & 45-24 in the '09 St Petersburg. Frosh QB Godfrey finished
8th in the nation in QB rankings: 68%, 2,042 yds, & 13/6. Overland, the Knights
sport 3 runners with at least 500 yds, & have topped 227 RYs 6 times. Defensively,
CFla ranks #9, #10, & #16 in scoring, rushing, & total "D". But they are
definitely stepping up in class here (note the AOPR above), & are taking on a
squad as bowl-tested as they come. For the Bulldogs of Georgia, this marks
their 14th straight bowl season, with the streak beginning in the '97 Outback.
And what a streak is has been, not only winning 11 of those 13 outright (only
misses by scores of 20-16 & 38-35), but covering to the tune of 10-of-13. A
year ago, they entered the Independence Bowl with 5 losses, the most ever in
Richt's then 9-year reign, but disposed of TexasA&M, 44-20 (17-pt cover).
Thus, a new low this season, with 6 losses. The GA "D" isn't to be trusted, but
note Dogs' 41 ppg average in their 5-2 windup, with QB Murray at 2,851 PYs,
& 24/6. And WR Green seems peerless. Simply cannot buck 'Dawgs in bowls.

PROPHECY: FLORIDA STATE 33 - South Carolina 31 RATING: 2

For the first time since the '77 Tangerine Bowl, the Seminoles of Florida State
won't have Bobby Bowden pacing the sidelines. Arriving in Tallahassee in '76,
he guided the 'Noles to 31 bowls in his 34 years at the helm, missing only in
'76 (5-6), '78 (8-3), & '81 (6-5). But every year since, with this marking an
astonishing 29th straight bowl campaign. Time marches on, thus Bobby has
been replaced this year by Jimbo Fisher, who was moved up from defensive
coordinator. And the Gators have responded in the stop unit aspect, moving
from 108th in total "D" in '09 to 41st this year. This squad exemplifies the word
competitive, with only that hiccup 47-17 loss at Oklahoma in their 2nd game
bucking the trend, as FlaSt's other 2 regular season losses were by scant 4 &
2 pt margins. Their 9 regular season wins are their most since '03, & they
reached 30+ pts in 8 games, including a 31-7 rout of Florida. QB Ponder has
missed 2 games, but should be ready. No doubt that the Gamecocks of South
Carolina will also be ready, as they are yet another bowl-tested squad since
the arrival of Steve Spurrier in '05, with this marking their 5th bowl slot in his 6
years. The past 2 years have seen 31-10 & 20-7 holiday season losses for
the 'Cocks (17 & 17 pt ATS losses). Returning 15 starters, including QB Garcia,
they've certainly had their moments, including a stunning 35-21 upset of then
#1 Alabama (21-pt cover). And that directly on the heels of a 35-27 loss to
Auburn, blowing a 27-21 lead, with 4 TOs in the 4th. And, of course, their SEC
title rematch was no contest. In RB Lattimore, SC has perhaps the best player
on the field. But the 'Noles have covered their last 6 bowls. Grab the TD spot

NELLY

RATING 1: CLEMSON (-4½) over South Florida

Clemson (-4½) South Florida (40) 11:00 AM
The Tigers are 1-4 in the last five bowl games and this team may have a
hard time getting up for this game. Sloppy play on offense cost this team a
much better season as four of six losses came by less than a touchdown and
Clemson took undefeated Auburn to overtime on the road earlier this year.
QB Kyle Parker lost some favor with the coaching staff and though he is
headed towards a baseball contract it still appears that he will start this
game. Parker was benched in the finale against South Carolina after costly
turnovers but the strength of this team is on defense, allowing less than 18
points per game with spectacular numbers against the pass. South Florida
QB B.J. Daniels sat out the final game of the season and his status is still not
clear for this game. Daniels had a very disappointing season but South
Florida is led by defense as well, with some of the better numbers in the Big
East. Clemson played a far tougher schedule and appears to be slightly
stronger on both sides of the ball but this is a fairly even match-up with the
line right where it projects. Coach Holtz is just 1-3 in bowl games and he was
not able to get his team going for huge home games late in the year, falling
to both Pittsburgh and Connecticut with a lot on the line. CLEMSON BY 6

RATING 3: NOTRE DAME (+3) over Miami, FL

Miami, Fl (-3) Notre Dame (47) 1:00 PM
While some of the off field issues have garnered more attention than the on
field performance, Coach Kelly will have a chance to end his first season at
Notre Dame on a high note with a win over a marquee program. Notre Dame
closed the season with three straight wins over quality teams including
breaking the long losing streak against USC, something neither of his
successors could do. Miami is a team in transition with Al Golden recently
announced as the next coach. Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland will lead
the team in this game however to keep some continuity going. With a staff
looking for jobs and several players with eyes on the NFL this is not ideal
situation for Miami although this is a talented team. Miami beat five teams
that will play in bowl games but losing the final two games of the season at
home sealed the fate for Coach Shannon after four years. Injuries forced
both teams to regroup and shuffle their lineups but Notre Dame impressively
ignited its defense late in the year, allowing just 22 points in the final three
games. The Irish have a poor track record in recent bowls but Miami has
failed to cover in four straight bowls. NOTRE DAME BY 4

RATING 5: CENTRAL FLORIDA (+6½) over Georgia

GEORGIA (-6½) Central Florida (55½) 2:30 PM
Central Florida may come from Conference USA but the Knights have a
team that should be able to compete with anyone, even in a match-up with a
SEC team. UCF finished 10-3 and all three losses came in close games
against bowl teams. While Conference USA has lost the last four Liberty
Bowls, each of the last six games has been decided by eight points or less.
UCF coach George O’Leary also has plenty of experience playing the
Bulldogs from his days coaching at Georgia Tech. UCF should be well
motivated after getting blown out in its bowl game last season and this has
not proven to be a typical Georgia team. The Bulldogs were fortunate to get
to 6-6 after a 1-4 start to the season and while the offense has put up big
numbers the defense has allowed 29 or more points six times. Georgia has
won and covered in four straight bowl games and Coach Richt is 7-2 S/U in
bowl games but this may be his toughest challenge, motivating a
disappointing team to face a smaller conference team in a far less
prestigious game than the program is generally used to. Georgia obviously
played a stronger schedule but UCF was a better per carry rushing team on
both sides of the ball and line value is with the dog. UCF BY 7

RATING 1: FLORIDA STATE (+3) over South Carolina

South Carolina (-3) Florida State (54) 6:30 PM
While this has technically been the strongest year at South Carolina since
Coach Spurrier took over the program, another bowl loss coupled with the
blowout SEC Championship game loss would leave a very unsettled tint to
the season. The Gamecocks have lost badly in the past two bowl games and
while this is a more prestigious game, returning to the same field as the ugly
loss to Auburn may not be advantageous. Florida State is in the same boat,
technically improvement was shown in Jimbo Fisher’s first season but the
opportunity was there for greater things. Florida State has been a great
performer in bowl games including back-to-back convincing wins the last two
years. Statistically these are very similar teams as both defenses have great
talent and produce a lot of sacks, but also allow more yards than expected.
Both offenses rely on the passing game a little too much to be a complete
team at an elite level. The Seminoles are the better rushing team, averaging
4.8 yards per carry but South Carolina’s worst defensive games have come
against strong passing teams, which Florida State can be at times. FSU BY 2

THE GOLD SHEET

South Florida 17 - Clemson 16—Despite a third straight bowl bid under its
young head coach Dabo Swinney, the 2010 campaign has to qualify as a
disappointment for 6-6 Clemson. After all, the Tigers made it all the way to the
ACC title game the previous season. But their offense regressed without
speedy multi-dimensional RB C.J. Spiller, taken No. 9 in the NFL draft by Buffalo
after being named the conference’s offensive player of the year in 2009, and
blazing WR/kick returner Jacoby Ford, who’s become a home-run threat for the
Oakland Raiders. Soph QB Kyle Parker (12 TDP, 10 ints.), who spent much of
the off-season mulling a pro baseball career, failed to develop much of a rapport
with his young, rebuilt WR corps. Plus, top RB soph Andre Ellington suffered a
season-ending toe/foot injury in late October after he had scored 11 TDs and
rushed for 642 yards in the first seven games. The offensive frustrations
reached a head in the finale of the regular campaign, as Parker had a heated
sideline argument with Swinney after being benched during Clemson’s lopsided
home loss to rival South Carolina.
South Florida (just 24 ppg & 312 ypg) has had its own problems on the attack
this season. Nimble soph starting QB B.J. Daniels will be available after missing
most of the last two games with a thigh injury, although Daniels (12 ints. vs. only
9 TDP) has definitely had trouble digesting new head coach Skip Holtz’s
playbook.
What each team brings to this matchup is a stingy defense, so, despite the
relatively low total (40½ at TGS press time), “under” might be the best
recommendation. The hard-charging Tiger stop unit, spearheaded by jr. DE
Da’Quan Bowers (nation’s-best 15½ sacks), is permitting just 18 ppg, while the
sure-tackling Bulls have relinquished just 20 ppg. And these two squads are a
combined 18-5 “under” the total this season. As to the side, it won’t be a big
surprise to see USF spring a small upset as long as the skittish Daniels
maintains his composure and doesn’t commit game-altering giveaways.

Notre Dame 27 - Miami-Florida 23—Thankfully, we haven’t had to endure the
old “Catholics vs. Convicts” label once attached to this rivalry a generation ago
by many Domers. And, from Notre Dame’s perspective, what did a few sins
compare to Miami running up the score in 1985, 58-7, in what would be Gerry
Faust’s last game as coach? The Irish sought and received divine intervention
(mostly from the referees) to help with a still-discussed 31-30 win in ‘88 that
paved the way for Lou Holtz’ only national title at South Bend. The schools then
split a pair of mean-spirited games in 1989 & ‘90, complete with a pregame brawl
in the latter, before declaring a truce to hostilities that previously included one of
the dullest games in college history, a 0-0 tie at the Orange Bowl in 1965!
No such passions are being aroused for the impromptu renewal of this series
(which was already due to re-ignite in 2012) in far-away El Paso, where much of
the discussion regarding these two has involved off-field matters, not pregame
fights. Specifically, Miami’s abrupt dismissal of HC Randy Shannon after the
Canes lost their regular-season finale vs. South Florida. Temple’s Al Golden
was hired on Dec. 12, but Miami will be led in this game by OL coach Jeff
Stoutland. Meanwhile, HC Brian Kelly’s maiden run at Notre Dame might have
been even more traumatic, stained by the tragic death of a student videographer
in October when the camera tower he occupied toppled in a windstorm.
The Irish, however, did rally in November with three wins and covers to get
bowl-eligible, coincidentally after QB Dayne Crist went down with a knee injury.
Frosh QB Tommy Rees played the Mariano Rivera reliever role quite well by
leading the late win streak that was also fueled by improved work from d.c. Bob
Diaco’s stop unit, which held Utah, Army, and Southern Cal to a mere 233 ypg
down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Canes’ performance pattern became uneven
along with the form of QB Jacory Harris (who eventually missed 3 games due to
concussion). It’s unclear whether Harris, who tossed 13 TDP and only 5 picks
in leading the Canes to 5 wins, and just 1 TD and 7 picks in four losses, or
backup Stephen Morris, who blew hot and cold in relief, will start in El Paso.
ACC sources report many Canes were troubled by Shannon’s ouster, and
their reaction is hard to predict. We do know ND seemed to turn the corner in
November, when its “D” stepped up and young QB Rees flashed lots of upside.
Along with Kelly’s underdog credentials (15-2 last 17), that’s enough for us to
see this game as does Pope Benedict.

Georgia 41 - Ucf 23—Been there, done that. So it goes with UCF, “bowling”
again after another impressive regular season, with sparkling straight-up and
pointspread records (both 10-3) mostly accumulated against Conference USA
opposition. But recall 2007, when, like this year, George O’Leary’s troops won
C-USA in impressive fashion, and were then favored in this same Liberty Bowl
game against blunt-edged SEC rep Mississippi State. UCF was stonewalled in
an eventual 10-3 loss vs. Sly Croom’s Maroon. More of the same a year ago,
when the Golden Knights also entered their bowl in St. Petersburg with impressive
pointspread credentials, only to be unmasked by another BCS conference rep,
this time the Big East’s Rutgers, which won in an easy 45-24 gallop.
The question must be asked if anything is going to be different this time for
UCF than its last two bowl assignments when overpowered by BCS conference
opposition. Indeed, when “stepping up” this season, O’Leary’s team lost at
home vs. NC State and at Kansas State, making the Golden Knights SU losers
in their last seven vs. BCS league foes. And Georgia appears more menacing
than UCF’s last two bowl opponents.
True, the Bulldogs endured a bumpy ride in 2010, losing four of their first five
games, with the early-season suspension of WR A.J. Green removing the most
potent component from HC Mark Richt’s offensive mix. Green’s return in
October, coupled with the ongoing maturity of RS frosh QB Aaron Murray (24 TDP
& just 6 picks), triggered a stretch drive by UGa that not only saw it score 41 ppg its
last seven outings and finally secure a bowl berth in the finale vs. Georgia Tech, but
also remove some pressure from the long-serving Richt, whose 10-year run in
Athens appeared on shaky ground at midseason. The late-season rally
temporarily muted the war drums, although a loss in this game would put this
Richt edition again under .500 and likely re-ignite the debate in Bulldog Nation.
While UCF would appear to own the defensive edge, keep in mind that it was
not facing SEC opposition most weeks, as was Georgia. O’Leary’s true frosh
QB Jeff Godfrey (2042 YP) impressed after taking over for holdover Rob
Calabrese in late September, but facing a steady diet of soft C-USA defenses is
different than dealing with a legit SEC stop unit. The Dawgs’ recent bowl
success (won and covered last four) and the apparent urgency attached to this
result for Richt make it easier to lay the price with UGa in Memphis.

*Florida State 33 - South Carolina 31—While we can’t confirm or deny the
rumors at TGS press time, there are persistent reports coming out of Columbia
that South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier is seriously considering
retirement after this game. And who could blame the ol’ ball coach for hanging
up his visor after the rollercoaster ride the Gamecocks provided him this season.
USC followed an early hard-fought loss at Auburn with a convincing home win
over defending national champ Alabama, but then fell the very next week at
Kentucky. The Cocks were blown out at home by Arkansas on Nov. 6 and went
on the road and crushed Florida at The Swamp in their next game. Finally, after
a dominating victory at rival Clemson, USC was emasculated, 56-17, in the SEC
title game rematch against Auburn.
In comparison, it was relatively smooth trip for Jimbo Fisher in his first
campaign at the helm of Florida State. Sure, the Seminoles fell to Virginia Tech
in the ACC championship game. But it was their first trip to the conference title
tilt in five seasons, and a victory over the Gamecocks in Atlanta would give FSU
its first 10-win campaign since 2003.
Statistically, the Seminoles’ defense is one of the most improved platoons in
the nation, shaving more than 10 ppg off the generous 30 ppg it allowed in 2009.
However, many of State’s nation-leading 46 sacks came against lesser
opposition than potent South Carolina. The Noles figure to have plenty of
trouble containing a Gamecock attack that boasts maturing jr. QB Stephen
Garcia (65%, 20 TDP), NFL-caliber 6-4, 233-lb. soph WR Alshon Jeffery (79
catches for 1387 yards & 9 TDs), and terrific true frosh RB Marcus Lattimore
(1198 YR & 19 TDs). Likewise, the vulnerable South Carolina defense (254 ypg
passing) appears ill-equipped to hold back the balanced FSU offense,
especially with heady sr. QB Christian Ponder (missed two of last four games
with elbow problems) now rested and back closer to full strength. Definitely
favor “over” the total in this matchup, and, to a much lesser extent, the underdog
Seminoles (although any official retirement announcement by Spurrier might be
enough extra motivation for the Cocks to prevail).

GOLD SHEET EXTRA TECH PLAYS

NOTRE DAME

Granted, Notre Dame has had its problems in bowl games for over a
decade, but the Irish have also never been to the postseason with HC Brian
Kelly, either. That all changes December 31 at El Paso in the Sun Bowl vs. old
rival Miami-Florida. And since the Fighting Irish are an underdog, Kelly will be
performing in what has been a very profitable role for his teams, which are 15-
2 their last 17 getting points at Notre Dame, Cincy, and Central Michigan. The
Irish also closed with a rush, winning and covering their last three, just the
opposite of the Canes, who dropped 6 of their last 8 spread decisions, helping
cost HC Randy Shannon his job.

CKO

11 GEORGIA over Ucf
Late Score Forecast:
GEORGIA 41 - Ucf 23

Granted, UCF has been a pointspread force lately (19-6 vs. line since LY), but most of that damage was done vs.
modest C-USA opposition. Golden Knights have consistently undershot vs. higher-level foes, including LY’s bowl
loss vs. Rutgers and an early-season setback vs. NC State, and Georgia represents another major upgrade from
UCF’s normal victim list. Dawg attack (41 ppg last 7!) found traction in October when WR Green returned to lineup
and RS frosh QB Murray began to get comfy. Very important for Mark Richt to win this bowl and avoid careerdamaging
sub-.500 SU mark.

OVER (47) in the Notre Dame-Miami (Fla.) Game (Sun Bowl, Dec. 31)—Brian Kelly’s offense
is coming along; defense still has speed problems