PLAYBOOK
Clemson over South Florida by 7
Contrary to popular opinion, Clemson fans are not into sister-kissing ties
of any kind, and that includes this year’s mediocre 6-6 effort (4-4 in the
ACC) by the Tigers. Neither is head coach Dabo Swinney, whose job is on
shaky ground after Clemmie was thrashed by hated rival South Carolina,
29-7, to end the regular season. That’s why sophomore QB Tajh Boyd is
expected to get the start over Kyle Parker, whose two-year career appears
to be coming to an unceremonious end following a heated exchange
with head coach Dabo Swinney during the loss to the Gamecocks. In his
fi rst season with South Florida, coach Skip Holtz has also had to suffer
through inconsistency at the QB position thanks to the erratic play of B.J.
Daniels. However, despite missing most of the season’s fi nal two games
with a leg injury, Daniels is expected to return today and he gives the
Bulls a legitimate pass-run threat to contend with. When we consulted our
database over what looked to be a fairly even matchup, we were surprised
to see so many pro-Clemson numbers. ACC bowlers are a solid 14-4 ATS
versus Big East opponents – including 6-0 ATS when laying more than
2 points – while Big East bowlers are just 3-10 ATS taking on a foe off a
SU loss. The underdog is also 1-4 ATS in Bulls’ bowl games and fi rst-year
coaches playing off a loss are 7-17 ATS as bowlers. Yes, USF is making its
sixth consecutive bowl trip but this year’s collection of cattle stumbled their
way to a 2-6 ‘In The Stats’ mark in the season’s fi nal eight games. With
Swinney under big-time pressure to deliver a meaningful win, Clemson
gets the nod on this fi nal day of 2010.
Miami Fla over Notre Dame by 6
Sooner or later, it just had to happen – a renewal of the ‘Catholics vs.
Convicts’ rivalry between the Irish and the Canes. Too bad Miami head
coach Randy Shannon won’t take part as he was pink-slipped after a
season-ending home loss to South Florida. Perhaps even more puzzling is
the fact that the ‘U’ closed out with a 4-3 SU and 2-5 ATS record – while
going 7-0 ITS! Offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland was named interim
coach, and he’ll lead the Hurricanes in today’s bowl while newly hired
head coach Al Golden (Temple) waits in the wings. Miami and Notre Dame
have met 23 times but this will be the fi rst for Irish head man Brian Kelly
– a bad sign according to our database. First-year coaches are just 29-46-1
ATS in bowl games, including 16-33-1 ATS versus a foe that allows less
than 23 PPG, and these coaches are also a wallet-emptying 2-11 ATS in
bowl games against an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Kelly has buried
his backers with an 0-3 ATS effort in his three bowl appearances, a number
that fi ts perfectly with Notre Dame’s woeful 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS failure as
bowlers since 1995. In a ‘golden moment’, expect a big-time performance
from Miami’s defense to compliment the return of the oft-injured but
dangerous QB Jacory Harris as the Hurricanes blow through El Paso and
improve to 9-4 ATS in the postseason.
Georgia over Central Florida by 3
Midway through the season, we made a case that the Knights might just
be the best team in the state of Florida in 2010. But with seven of UCF’s
ten wins coming against mostly mediocre Conference USA competition,
it’s time for George O’Leary’s to either nut up or shut up as they take on
traditional SEC power Georgia. If you’re surprised to see the 6-6 Dawgs
laying a touchdown to the Knights, look no further than head coach Mark
Richt’s outstanding 41-5 SU streak of success when playing outside his
conference. But this isn’t one of Richt’s better squads and his disappointing
14-11 SU mark over the past two years has put him squarely on the hot
seat. Unfortunately, SEC bowl favorites are 2-8 ATS after scoring 40 or more
points in their last outing and the Bulldogs have compiled a toothless 2-5
SU and 1-6 ATS record against foes with a winning record this year. Things
look a bit more golden for the CUSA champion Knights. Liberty Bowl dogs
are 5-1 ATS in the last six games and CUSA bowlers boast a strong 11-3
ATS as dogs of 7 or more points. UCF head coach George O’Leary has also
prospered in this situation. Not only has he gone 23-9 ATS as a dog off a
win of 4 or more points, the underdog in O’Leary/SEC games has grabbed
the green in nine of eleven meetings. In a situation where Georgia’s Richt
will merely be looking to get a win and stave off the wolves, we’ll pick up
sword, shield and as many points as possible before heading into battle
with the Knights.
S Carolina over Florida St by 6
This looks like a good one! Two teams strong enough to reach their
respective conference Championship games – but not talented enough
to avoid being deep-fried by the competition – square off in the Georgia
Dome. Kudos to FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher, who threaded his way
through the minefi eld of Bobby Bowden’s forced retirement to revive
the Florida State program. The Seminoles’ nine regular-season wins were
the most since 2003 and the record included wins against rivals Miami
and Florida for the fi rst time in the same season since 1999. But Florida
State’s net yardage differential slipped 74 YPG over its fi nal four contests
due to the absence of QB Christian Ponder in half of those games. While
E.J. Manuel looks to be a capable replacement next year, they need a
healthy Ponder to stand a chance today (rumors are swirling that he may
miss the game to undergo elbow surgery). South Carolina returns to the
scene of the crime this evening as they were blasted by Auburn, 56-17,
at this venue less than a month ago – so you can rest assured that coach
Steve Spurrier and his Gamecocks will want to bury every memory of that
dismal performance with a solid effort here. A former player and coach
at Florida, Spurrier is more versed on the Seminoles than any opponent
he’s ever faced. He’s also 11-4 ATS off a loss versus ACC opposition, plus
he’ll be looking to make amends for last year’s no-show in the PapaJohns.
com Bowl where the Cocks lost 20-7 to UConn as 4-point chalk. Like Notre
Dame’s Brian Kelly, Jimbo Fisher shows up as a fi rst-year bowl coach: those
guys are just 16-33-1 ATS versus a foe allowing less than 23 PPG and 7-17
ATS when playing off a loss. South Carolina’s stud RB RB Marcus Lattimore
has not scored a touchdown or rushed for 100 yards in his last two outings
so look for a breakout game from the true freshman. And remember, too,
that the Gamecocks produced their two biggest wins, upsetting then-No.
1 Alabama and winning at Florida, following losses. Lay it if you play it.
LT Profits
Central Florida +6½
While there is no doubt that the SEC is light years stronger than Conference USA, the Central Florida Golden Knights are the one C-USA team that plays excellent defense, grading out nicely nationally in that area, and this should serve them well vs. the NCAAF betting odds here in this Liberty Bowl matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Golden Knights are 10-3 straight up and they have one of the best records in the country against the NCAAF odds, also at 10-3. They also gave a fine account of themselves vs. some quality non-conference foes early in the season, losing by just four points at Kansas State and by seven points to NC State. The fine performances by both of those teams this bowl season bodes well for the UCF chances of at least covering ATS in this spot.
The Knights finished 12th in the entire country in scoring defense at only 18.0 points per game this year while playing in an offensive minded conference, and they were also 18th in total defense allowing only 318.1 yards per contest in NCAAF betting. Perhaps most important statistic in regards to this game however is that UCF is allowing just 6.2 per pass attempt, ranking them 21st in the land in that category.
Georgia finished only 6-6 straight up and 5-7 ATS, and the key to stopping them is containing their superstar wide receiver A.J. Green, which is where the stout Golden Knights pass defense comes into play in the interesting NCAAF matchup.
Also, while the SEC may still be the deepest conference in the country, all of the best teams are in the West Division. The Bulldogs are a mid-tier SEC team hailing from the East, much like the Tennessee Volunteers who lost a virtual home game to North Carolina out of the ACC last night.
We look for the Central Florida defense to keep them in this NCAAF Bowl matchup from start to finish, resulting in a safe cover against the NCAAF betting odds and quite possibly an outright upset.
Karl Garrett
South Florida vs. CLEMSON at Charlotte, N.C.
G-Man taking a look at this Meineke Car Care Bowl for Friday afternoon, and here we have a pair of schools that have had their struggles throughout the season when it comes to getting in the end zone.
We also have a pair of schools that feature some solid stop units, as Clemson's defense allowed just 18 points per game for the year, while South Florida's defense was not far behind, allowing 20 points per game this season.
That being the case, look for the defenses to dictate the action in Charlotte today and look for a low-scoring affair between the Tigers and the Bulls.
These teams have combined to go UNDER the total in 18 of their 23 lined games for the season, and another UNDER today would not be a suprise at all.
If the offenses all of the sudden have a break out game so be it, but after watching both teams during the course of the year, the G-Man is calling for the scoreboard operator not to be too busy adding numbers up.
Play the LOW in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
2♦ UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Notre Dame vs. Miami (-2'), at El Paso, Texas
For today's comp selection, a lot of the Sun Bowl today depends on Miami QB Jacory Harris. He was clearly upset with the firing of Miami coach Randy Shannon, but he knows a win in the bowl game today would be the best way to show that the season wasn’t a waste.
Harris returned from a concussion against South Florida but threw a bad interception late in regulation that sent the game into OT where the Hurricanes lost 23-20 as 13-point favorites. Home losses to Virginia Tech and South Florida was not the way Miami wanted the season to end, but impressive wins over the likes of Georgia Tech, Maryland and North Carolina shows what the team is capable of.
When Harris is on, he’s real good with 13 TDs and just five INTs in five Miami wins and just one TD and seven INTs in four losses.
Miami’s defense is second nationally against the pass and eighth in the country with 37 sacks. They will need to get after Notre Dame freshman QB Tommy Rees who took over late in the season and led the Irish to three wins with 905 yards, but he tossed eight INTs. The Irish held opponents to 233.3 yards per game during the three-game winning streak but before that they averaged 393.1 yards before that.
Notre Dame is on ATS slides of 1-6 in bowl games, 2-6-1 after a spread-cover and 0-5 as a bowl underdog.
Lay the small points today and play Miami. Look for big things from the Hurricanes defensive line and just enough offense to get the job done. Play Miami.
5♦ MIAMI
Stephen Nover
Notre Dame vs. Miami (-2'), at El Paso, Texas
For Friday's Free Bowl Play, let's turn to a matinee battle between Notre Dame and Miami, Florida.
Coaching upheaval versus key injuries. That's one of the factors in deciding which way to go in today's Sun Bowl game between Notre Dame and Miami.
I like the Hurricanes in this matchup. Some are scared away, or backing the Irish, because Miami just fired head coach Randy Shannon. I say that move was long overdue. Shannon may have been able to recruit, but he wasn't a good coach. So no loss there with offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland serving as interim coach.
Notre Dame is racked by injuries to key players including quarterback Dayne Crist, leading rusher Armando Allen and star tight end Kyle Rudolph. All are out.
Freshman Tommy Rees is Notre Dame's quarterback. Rees doesn't have a lot of arm strength and is going against the nation's No. 2 pass defense. The Hurricanes allowed only seven touchdown passes all season while forcing 28 turnovers and recording 37 sacks.
Note that this matchup is in El Paso. The temperatures will be in the 40s, but there will be strong winds of more than 20 mph. That's going to hurt Rees more than strong-armed Jacory Harris.
Harris is back for the Hurricanes after missing three games due to a concussion. He's a great talent although inconsistent. Harris will want to impress new coach-in-waiting Al Golden, formerly of Temple.
The Irish were 4-5 until winning their last three beating Utah, Army and Southern California. I give the Irish credit for finishing the regular-season on a winning streak, but I'm not impressed with these victories.
The Irish caught Utah the week after the Utes were destroyed at home by TCU. That game burst their bubble and left a week-long hangover. Army played one of the weakest schedules in the nation and Southern Cal was down and unmotivated. Rees had four turnovers in a 20-16 victory against USC. The Trojans ranked 109th in pass defense.
I'm more impressed with Miami beating Pittsburgh, 31-3, on the road. Notre Dame, by contrast, defeated the Panthers by six in South Bend. The Hurricanes also beat Clemson, Maryland and North Carolina - all bowl teams. North Carolina just defeated Tennessee and Maryland destroyed East Carolina in its bowl game.
This is Brian Kelly's first year with Notre Dame. The Irish haven't turned the corner yet under Kelly. They are 1-6 ATS in their previous seven bowl games.
2♦ MIAMI, FLA
Chuck O'Brien
Georgia (-6') vs. Central Florida, at Memphis, TN
For Friday’s complimentary selection in college bowl action, take Georgia minus the points against Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl.
Usually I would look to fade an SEC opponent – especially one as prestigious as Georgia – that’s 6-6 and laying points against a 10-3 Conference USA squad that you know is excited to be playing in ANY bowl game and is in a “We’ve got nothing to lose” situation. But this is one instance where I believe the Bulldogs, despite a very un-Georgia-like season, will come with the right mindset and energy.
Why? Because they don’t to be remembered as the first Dawgs team since 1996 to end up with a losing record. Beyond that, the Bulldogs want to do everything they can to save coach Mark Richt’s job (Richt is on the hot seat not only because of what happened this year but because this is the third straight season that Georgia failed to reach a BCS game).
While Central Florida is to be commended for a 10-3 season (SU and ATS), it’s tough not to cast a skeptical eye toward the Golden Knights’ schedule. They faced just two BCS opponents (Kansas State and N.C. State), and lost both games. The other defeat was a 10-point loss to Conference USA rival Southern Miss. Those were three of just five bowl teams that UCF played (SMU and East Carolina being the others).
Meanwhile, Georgia’s SEC schedule featured seven bowl teams (including road games against the two SEC title game participants, Auburn and South Carolina, plus Florida and Arkansas), plus a non-conference game versus rival Georgia Tech. And Georgia deserves credit for hanging in there after a 1-4 start, closing the season with five wins in the last seven games (only miscues were at top-ranked Auburn, plus a three-point overtime loss to Florida).
Georgia has won four straight bowl games (4-0 ATS, all as a chalk) and is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight postseason contests. The Knights, conversely, are 0-for-3 in bowl games (last year they got drilled 45-24 by Rutgers as a 2½-point underdog).
If the Dawgs show up like I think they will, we’ll see the SEC vs. Conference USA talent discrepancy show up in a big way. Chuckster is calling for a 17-point Georgia win.
4♦ GEORGIA
Joel Tyson
Florida State vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (-3) - at Atlanta, GA
Last college football game on the docket for the year 2010, and the South Carolina Gamecocks make a return visit to the Georgia Dome, the site of their SEC massacre at the hands of the Auburn Tigers back on December 4th.
Will it be "deja vu" all over again?
This time around, I doubt it. Florida State had a fine season under first year coach Jimbo Fisher, but an elbow injury to Christian Ponder forced him to miss 2 of the last 4 games the Seminoles played, and Ponder's injury is the type that could flare up again before this game is done.
State went just 2-5 against the spread over their final 7 games, including their straight up and against the spread loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship contest, while South Carolina was able to cover their last pair and 5 of 8 this season when laying points.
The Gamecocks have been outclassed in each of their last 2 bowl games the last 2 seasons under Steve Spurrier. Look for the third time to be the charm.
Take South Carolina minus the points in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl tonight.
3♦ SOUTH CAROLINA
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta at OKLAHOMA CITY (-5)
For today's comp selection, inconsistency has been the big problem for Oklahoma City this season, but I’m expecting a big performance from them tonight when Atlanta comes into town for this New Year’s Eve contest.
The Thunder won both meetings last season against the Hawks and they’ve covered in each of the last four and nine of the last 10. At home last season, Oklahoma City scored a 106-99 win as 1 ½-point favorites. Thunder star Kevin Durant went for 33 points and 11 rebounds and PG Russell Westbrook had 12 points, nine rebounds and nine assists.
Oklahoma City scored a 114-93 home win over New Jersey on Wednesday, cashing as nine-point favorites and getting 27 points from Durant. The Thunder average 106.2 points per game at home while the Hawks manage just 94.4 points per game on the road.
The Hawks are just 9-8 on the road this season and they are on ATS skids of 3-7 after a victory, 2-6 against Northwest Division teams, 1-5 on the road, 1-7 against Western Conference teams and 0-4 on Fridays. The Thunder are on positive ATS runs of 8-3 overall, 5-2 at home, 7-2 as a favorite and 4-1 on Fridays.
I’ll lay the points with Oklahoma City tonight as they win this one by 10.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Stephen Nover
Minnesota (+8') at MICHIGAN STATE
For Friday's Free College Play, let's turn to the Big Ten battle between Michigan State and Minnesota.
Michigan State has proven unworthy so far of its lofty No. 2 preseason ranking. The Spartans finished non-conference action with a mediocre-for-them 8-4 record.
The Spartans are coming off a bad home loss to Texas in which they scored a season-low 55 points had only 18 field goals and 10 assists, shooting 29 percent from the floor.
While I expect Michigan State to come back strong from that outing, the Spartans aren't at the stage to lay this many points against a solid Minnesota team that already opened its Big Ten season.
The Gophers gave Wisconsin all it could handle on the road losing 68-60 in a game that was much closer than the final score. The game was tied 56-56 with 5:27 left.
Minnesota, thanks to its big frontcourt, is a strong rebounding and shot-blocking team. The Gophers also are physical, which is a key to matching up against Michigan State.
The Gophers also have good depth. Look for a better performance from Al Nolen, who was a rusty 0-for-6 from the floor against Wisconsin playing 22 minutes after returning from a stress fracture in his foot.
The Spartans rank last in the Big Ten in turnover margin at minus 10. They also are banged-up with star guard Kalin Lucas (Achilles) and fellow backcourter Korie Lucious (ankle), their fourth-leading scorer, less than 100%.
Grab the points because the Gophers are a live dog in this 4:00 PM Eastern tipoff.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Chuck O'Brien
Florida at XAVIER (PK)
For Friday’s complimentary selection in college basketball, take Xavier in a pick-em spot against Florida.
The Musketeers are a perfect 6-0 on their home court this season, outscoring visitors by nearly nine points per game. Xavier’s biggest advantage at home? Rebounding, as the Musketeers yank down an average of 39 boards per contest in their building, or almost 11 more than their opponents. In contrast, Florida averages just 32.7 rebounds per game when it hits the road.
The Gators are 9-3 this season, including a solid win over Kansas State 57-44 two weeks ago. However, they also were crushed by Ohio State in Gainesville (93-75); they lost at Central Florida as a 3 ½-point road favorite; and two days after knocking off Kansas State, Florida fell to Division II Jacksonville at home 71-68 in overtime. Translation: Billy Donovan’s squad is extremely inconsistent, and with just one quality victory this season (Kansas State), the Gators cannot be trusted right now, not even in a revenge spot (back in February, Xavier went to Florida and rolled to a 76-64 win as a four-point road ‘dog).
Both teams are struggling against the number – the Gators are in a 2-8 ATS slump; Xavier is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six – but the Musketeers have covered in five of their last six against SEC foes and seven of their last eight on Friday. At the same time, Florida has gotten to the window just twice in its last seven against teams with a winning record.
Chuckster likes the home team here by at least eight points.
3♦ XAVIER
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New Jersey Nets at Chicago Bulls
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The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Nets are 0-14 ATS (-10.0 ppg) as a dog after a game in which they had more turnovers than assists and 0-11-1 ATS (-8.5 ppg) on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Brook Lopez was the Nets' high scorer. Consider laying the big number
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1 Unit Notre Dame +3FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Fighting Irish enter today's game with plenty of momentum following 3 straight impressive victories. Miami, meanwhile, limps in off back-to-back defeats. Plus, this team has had to deal with all the internal changes surrounding the firing of coach Randy Shannon, something which has bothered some key performers. "I'm very disappointed," junior quarterback Jacory Harris said. "Coach Shannon is like my father figure."
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The Notre Dame defense, led by linebacker Manti Te'o, was terrific down the stretch, holding opponents to just 233.3 yards per game. That's a big reason why the Irish look good catching a field goal. Plus, it has not been wise to go against teams coached by Brian Kelly in the underdog role. That's because his teams are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog.
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The Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog while the Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Miami is also 1-4 ATS in its last 5 Bowl games as a favorite. At this stage of the game, Kelly's program is in better shape. Take Notre Dame and the points.
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South Florida +6 over ClemsonLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This line simply does not make any sense at all. It’s based solely on reputation but it has no merit. The Tigers finished the year with a 6-6 record and had it not been for wins over North Texas, Wake Forest and Presbyterian they wouldn’t have even been Bowl eligible. The Tigers went 4-6 down the stretch and possess an offense that can’t run or pass. They virtually have less skilled players at the key positions than any Bowl team this season and one has to wonder where the points are going to come from. The Bulls could put up 10 points here and potentially win or cover. South Florida won four of its last six games with the two losses over that stretch coming against Pitt by 7 and against Connecticut by just three. The Bulls are a very decent team with a very good defense and this might just be the biggest overlay of the postseason. Bulls outright. Play: South Florida +6 (Risking 2 units) Play: South Florida +2.00 (Risking 1 unit).
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NY Islanders +3.27 over DETROITLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Regardless of the outcome this is an automatic play because of the tag and there’s not much more to say. This line would have made sense a couple of weeks ago when the Islanders couldn’t win a game but things have changed. They’re playing inspired and winning hockey right now and they’re even coming off a win over the red-hot Penguins. The Islanders have gone 5-1-1 over their last seven games and they actually catch the Red Wings in a vulnerable spot. Detroit returns home from a four-game trip and they wanted to win its last game against the Stars badly because they had previously lost 11 of 12 games to Dallas. They played their hearts out and beat Dallas 7-3 but the game was a lot closer than the score indicates. Dallas led 3-2 late in the second and the game was tied 3-3 going to the third. The Red Wings rarely see the Islanders and chances are they won’t be nearly as jacked up as they were last game or they’ll be to face the Flyers on Sunday. The Islanders may not win this game but they absolutely have a legit shot to beat these Datsyuk-less Wings. Play: NY Islanders +3.27 (Risking 2 units).LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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DALLAS +1.01 over VancouverLARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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They’ve won three in a row and over that stretch the Canucks have outscored the opposition 16-7. Vancouver has not lost in regulation in 10 straight games and is the hottest team in the NHL right now. The Canucks most recent win was 6-2 over a tough Flyers team that ripped apart the Kings last night. Why then, are the Canucks laying a half puck and taking back 50 cents? In other words, of you wager on the Stars +½ puck, you would have to lay 63 cents to do so and you might not find a single person that’s willing to make that wager. This is clearly an enticement to try and get you to bet the wrong side, that being the Canucks -½ +1.50. The line tells us that the correct play is not to take the Stars +½ -1.63, that’s crazy, but to play them in regulation because they’re supposed to be winning or at the very worst tied after 60 minutes. Play: Dallas +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
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Toronto vs. HoustonFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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At first glance the Raptor scoring looks to have taken a drop based on their recent injury situations, but when taking a closer look we find that rarely has Toronto played a team that wants to get up and down the floor. The last three times they faced an offensive minded team the final points scored were 230 against the Lakers, 239 against Denver and 223 against the Knicks. The Rockets are a team that wants to push the pace and because of recent low scores in Toronto games we have a reasonable number here in which to take advantage.
The Rockets have reached the century mark in 8 of their last 9 games including scoring 119 last time out against Miami, a team that is considered one of the best defensive squads in the league. The only teams able to hold this offense in check as of late are Eastern Conference squads who slow the pace like Detroit and Milwaukee. That won't be the case tonight as Toronto enjoys fast break basketball. Look for plenty of shots to be taken as the pace will be fast and furious.
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Golden State / Charlotte UnderFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The total on any Golden State Warriors game is going to be inflated high as the Warriors score about 102 points per game and more critically allow over 106 points per game. This is not the same high scoring Warriors squad of the past few years however and the 'under' is actually 19-12 in Golden State games this season including 12-5 in road games. This is a second game in three days in the southeast for the Warriors after a tough loss to Atlanta on Wednesday and this will be the second highest total for a Warriors game in any of the last six games. That should not be the case with the low scoring Bobcats hosting tonight as Charlotte has averaged just 92 points scored per game. Charlotte has taken a step back on defense this season allowing 97 points per game but this squad appears to have new life with the coaching change. Paul Silas is not the defensive oriented coach that Larry Brown was but his emphasis has been on the defensive end with the Bobcats winning each of the last two games since he took over. Charlotte topped 100 points in both games but they faced two of the worst teams in the league. This game featured the highest total of the season in any Charlotte game (by several points) and there is simply not justification for that much of an adjustment. The 'under' is 10-5 in Charlotte home games this season as the Bobcats hold foes to just 42 percent shooting. Both teams are also below average from the free throw line so if this game comes down to foul shots late, there are likely to be some misses to keep this game 'under'. Take advantage of value in the total in this match-up.
Tom Freese
Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Houston Rockets
Toronto is 11-20 straight up this year. The Raptors are 9-20 ATS their last 29 games when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. Toronto is 2-5 ATS their last 7 games overall. The Raptors are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as an underdog. Houston is 15-16 straight up this year. The Rockets are 6-0 ATS their last 6 games off a straight up loss. Houston is 7-1 ATS their last 8 games as favorites. Houston is 7-2 ATS their last 9 home games and they are 10-4 ATS their last 14 games overall. The Rockets are 8-2 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game.
Rocketman
Washington U vs. UCLA
Play: UCLA +3.5
Washington is 2-3 SU on the road this year while UCLA is 8-1 SU at home this season. UCLA is allowing only 62 points per game at home this year. UCLA is 12-1 SU at home vs Washington since 1997. Huskies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Huskies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Huskies are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. Bruins are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on UCLA today!
Black Widow
1* on Toronto Raptors +9
The Houston Rockets should not be this heavily favored against any team in the NBA. Houston is just 15-16 this season and have been plagued by injuries all year. Though the Toronto Raptors are only 11-20 this year, they have been much more competitive than expected. They are scoring 100.7 points/game and allowing 104.5 points/game while getting outscored by only 3.8 points/game. This team is showing some of their best value of the season tonight in Houston. Plays against home favorites (HOUSTON) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 30-8 (78.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Raptors are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 road games and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Toronto and the points.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5
I'll back the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight as a small home favorite against the Atlanta Hawks. The Thunder are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Atlanta and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings overall. Oklahoma City won both meetings with the Hawks last season, including a 106-99 home victory. The Thunder are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They have won seven of those games all by 8 points or more.
Oklahoma City is now 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games and have one of the most energetic crowds in the league, thus one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. The Thunder have gone 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when favored by 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference foes. Take the Thunder Friday.