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MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Ohio (9-3, 7-4 ATS) vs. Central Michigan (10-2, 9-2 ATS)
(at Detroit)
Central Michigan is gunning for its third Mid-American Conference title in the last four years when it takes on Ohio at Ford Field in Detroit.
The Chippewas closed the regular season on a 3-0 SU and ATS run – all as a double-digit favorite – including Saturday’s 45-31 rout of Northern Illinois, barely cashing as a 13-point chalk. Central Michigan, winners of the MAC West Division, posted the first-ever undefeated and untied conference record in school history, and its only losses this season were at Boston College and at Arizona, both schools from BCS conferences.
Ohio claimed the East Division crown last weekend with a 35-17 win over Temple, cashing as a two-point home ‘dog. The Bobcats, who piled up 494 yards against the Owls, rattled off four straight wins (3-1 ATS) down the stretch to secure the division title, with the offense averaging 30 ppg.
This is a rematch of the 2006 MAC title game, with the Chippewas routing Ohio 31-10 as 3½-point favorites, as QB Dan LeFevour – then a freshman – threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns. Last year, Central Michigan went to Athens, Ohio, to face the Bobcats and took a 31-28 victory as 2½-point road chalk with LeFevour again lighting them up for 361 passing yards and 45 rushing yards and a score. LeFevour will be playing in his third MAC title game tonight.
The Chips have won and covered three straight meetings in this rivalry, and the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last five meetings and seven of the last eight.
Central Michigan’s offense puts up 34.2 points and 419.9 total yards per game, with LeFevour leading the attack. This season, the fourth-year senior has completed 71.2 percent of his passes for 2,787 yards with 25 TDs and just five INTs. LeFevour, who is currently tied for the most career touchdown passes in Division I-A history at 146, also has rushed for a team-high 652 yards and 14 additional scores this season.
Defensively, the Chippewas allow just 17.8 points per game and 331 yards per contest. No opponent has scored more than 31 points against Central Michigan, which held eight of 12 foes to 23 points or less.
The Bobcats’ offense put up 73 points the last two weeks against Temple and Northern Illinois, with QB Theo Scott tossing five TD passes and no INTs. Scott had 324 yards passing and three TDs last week against Temple and rushed for another 69 yards and two scores. Scott tweaked an ankle against the Owls but is expected to play today. On defense, the Bobcats allow just 21.4 points and 352 total yards per game, but 153 rushing yards per contest.
Ohio is on ATS runs of 7-2 overall, 8-2 in MAC games, 6-0 on Fridays, 4-0 as an underdog and 7-2 against teams with a winning record. Central Michigan is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last four Friday games, but otherwise it is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 39-15-3 overall, 25-7-2 in MAC contests, 25-8-2 as a favorite (6-2 when laying points this year), 23-9-2 after a spread-cover and 11-5 against teams with winning records.
The Bobcats are on “over” streaks of 4-0 as an underdog and 4-0 against teams with winning records, while the Chippewas are on “over” runs of 8-2-1 against winning teams and 5-1 in Friday contests. However, Central Michigan has stayed below the posted number in six of seven after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
NBA
Boston (15-4, 9-10 ATS) at Oklahoma City (10-8, 11-7 ATS)
The Celtics wrap up a four-game road trip in Oklahoma City looking for their seventh straight win.
Boston got a hard-fought 90-83 victory in San Antonio on Thursday, cashing as a one-point underdog, making it a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) on the current road trip. The Celtics have now rattled off four straight spread-covers on the heels of six-game ATS slide. Kevin Garnett had 20 points and seven rebounds while Rajon Rondo added 12 points and 12 assists to lead the Celtics over the Spurs.
Oklahoma City crushed the Sixers on Wednesday, winning 117-106 as a 6½-point home favorite. The Thunder have won three of their last four (SU and ATS) and at home this season they are averaging 101.3 points a game while allowing just 94.7, going 6-3 ATS as a host (3-1 ATS last four).
Boston has won five straight in this series (4-1 ATS) and seven of the last 10 (both SU and ATS) dating back to 2004. Last season the Celtics went to Oklahoma and scored a 96-83 win as a 9½-point road favorite and also crushed the Thunder 103-84 in their matchup in Beantown as 11-point favorites. The host is on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five series clashes.
The Celtics are still just 5-9 ATS in their last 13 overall and 2-4 ATS in their last six against Western Conference teams, but they are also 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is on positive ATS trends that include 20-8-1 against Eastern Conference squads. 5-2 at home, 18-6 as a home ‘dog, 4-1 on Friday and 6-2 against Atlantic Division teams.
Boston has topped the total in four of six overall, four of five as a favorite and seven of nine on Friday, but the Celtics are on “under” runs of 11-2-1 against Northwest Division teams, 18-8 when they play the second night of a back-to-back and 6-2 against the Western Conference. The Thunder have gone over the posted total in eight of 10 overall, four of five at home and five straight against the Eastern Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 10-3 as home ‘dogs and 6-2 against Atlantic Division squads. Finally, the “under” has been the play in six of eight meetings between these two in Oklahoma City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
Miami (10-8, 8-10 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (14-3, 8-9 ATS)
The surging Lakers will try to make it eight straight wins when they welcome the Heat to the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Miami is on a four-game West Coast road trip, having split the first two, beating Portland 107-100 as a 6½-point ‘dog on Tuesday and then losing 114-96 in Denver on Thursday, failing as a nine-point road pup. The Heat have lost six of their last nine overall and have really struggled at the betting window, failing to cash in nine of their last 11.
Los Angeles has won seven in a row overall (5-2 ATS), scoring in triple digits in each of the seven wins while keeping the opposition in double-digits in each game. The Lakers beat up the Hornets 110-99 on Tuesday but came up short as a 15-point home favorite. Over its last five games, L.A. is averaging 109.4 points and shooting 48.4 percent from the floor, while allowing just 91.6 ppg.
The home team has won eight of the last nine (5-4 ATS) in this rivalry, including both matchups last year when the Lakers got a 108-105 win at home, but came up way short as 11-point favorites, then lost 89-87 in Miami as an eight-point chalk. The underdog is on a 6-2 ATS run when these two get together, but despite getting the money in L.A. last year, the Heat are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Hollywood.
The Heat are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Pacific Division teams. Meanwhile, the Lakers are on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 7-3 at home, 8-3 as a favorite, 6-2 against Eastern Conference teams, 10-4 after getting two days off and 4-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Miami is on several “over” streaks, including 6-3 overall, 11-5 when they play the second night of a back-to-back, 4-1 on the road and 4-1 against Pacific Division teams. Los Angeles has topped the total in nine of 14 as a favorite and three of five against Eastern Conference teams, but the Lakers are also on “under” runs of 13-6-1 at home, 20-8 when playing on two days of rest, 7-2 against Southeast Division teams and 5-1 at home against teams with winning road records. Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in seven of the last nine overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
DUNKEL INDEX
Ohio at Central Michigan
The Chippewas look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10 1/2 points or greater. Central Michigan is the pick (-13) according to Dunkel, which has the Chippewas favored by 17 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-13)
Game 307-308: Ohio at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 77.749; Central Michigan 95.375
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 17 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 13; 53
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-13); Over
NCAAB
Wofford at Michigan State
The Terriers look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Wofford is the pick (+20) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by only 17. Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+20).
Game 521-522: Kent State at Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 57.281; Xavier 69.091
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 12
Vegas Line: Xavier by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+14 1/2)
Game 523-524: Akron at Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 55.794; Texas A&M 66.871
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 11
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 12
Dunkel Pick: Akron (+12)
Game 525-526: Troy at Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 53.938; Auburn 59.130
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5
Vegas Line: Auburn by 9
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+9)
Game 527-528: Colorado at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 54.595; Oregon State 58.190
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-2 1/2)
Game 529-530: San Diego at UC Riverside
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 57.765; UC Riverside 57.373
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: San Diego by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC Riverside (+2 1/2)
Game 531-532: Wofford at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 55.226; Michigan State 72.198
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 17
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 20
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+20)
Game 533-534: Manhattan at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 51.181; Niagara 61.276
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 10
Vegas Line: Niagara by 13
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+13)
Game 535-536: St. Peter's at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 49.184; Iona 58.657
Dunkel Line: Iona by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 8
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-8)
Game 537-538: Loyola-MD at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 49.922; Canisius 54.108
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 4
Vegas Line: Canisius by 1
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-1)
Game 539-540: Northern Colorado at Montana State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 53.078; Montana State 54.477
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Montana State
Game 541-542: Northern Arizona at Montana
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 50.831; Montana 56.630
Dunkel Line: Montana by 6
Vegas Line: Montana by 8
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+8)
Marc Lawrence
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
The Raptors look to get back on the win track when they visit the Wizards in Washington Friday night with revenge on their minds from a 106-102 loss suffered in Toronto this past Tuesday. The Raptors take the court knowing they are 5-1 ATS as a dog off a loss of 30 or more points when taking on an opponent of a win. With Toronto 6-2 SU and ATS when seeking revenge in this series, look for to make amends here tonight.
BIG AL
Boston Celtics at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
Last night the Celtics won 90-83 in San Antone, and that was their sixth straight win. But San Antonio isn't really playing well this season, so that victory didn't come as much surprise. However, a team playing above expectations is this Thunder ball club, with 10 wins in its first 18 games. Oklahoma City has won three of its last four, including a 117-106 triumph over Philly. In that ballgame, the Thunder were led by Kevin Durant, who poured in 33 points, and Russell Westbrook, who dished out 15 assists. Oklahoma City has won six of seven games vs. Eastern Conference foes this season, including all four at home. And the Thunder are 44-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons. Boston is in the midst of a long road trip, and played last night, while the Thunder had last night off, and are in the middle of a long home stand (so they've not been travelling). Take the points with the rested Oklahoma City Thunder.
Matt Fargo
Charlotte Bobcats at New Jersey Nets
Prediction: New Jersey Nets
How bad is New Jersey? Obviously the record gives us that answer as the loss to Dallas on Wednesday set the NBA record for the worst start in league history at 0-18. We knew the Nets would be bad but I dont think anyone saw this one coming. They have dropped three straight and seven of eight against the number as well and that only means one thing and that is value. In their last home game before the Mavericks, the Nets were actually favored by 2.5 against the Knicks and now they are getting 4.5 points from the Bobcats and Charlotte is not seven points better than New York. Despite New Jersey being winless, I dont think Charlotte deserves to be a road favorite over any team but the linesmakers hands are tied here as they have no choice. The Bobcats are 1-7 on the road this season and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Nets are actually 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. New Jersey also falls into a solid contrarian situation. Play on home underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games going up against an opponent that has covered five or six of their last seven games against the spread. This situation is 55-25 ATS (68.8 percent) since 1996. 3* New Jersey Nets
Jim Feist
Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Miami Heat +11½
The Miami Heat have been very strong on the road, with a winning record. We saw this again this week in a surprising 107-100 victory at Portland Trail, shooting a sizzling 53% against a strong Blazer defense. Miami has multiple offensive options with Dwyane Wade, Michael Beasley, Quentin Richardson and Jermaine O'Neal. The Lakers fattened up on some lousy teams during this win streak, and now the oddsmakers are making the defending champs big favorites each game. They failed to cover against the Knicks and Hornets and this will be the best teams they've faced in three weeks. Play the Miami Heat.
Bobby Maxwell
Dallas -5' at MEMPHIS
Improved my FREE play record to 20-9 after Thursday's winner with the Celtics as they went into San Antonio and not only covered, but got the outright upset. Tonight I've got another comp winner from the NBA hardwood coming at you as I go ahead and lay the chalk with the Mavericks in Memphis against the Grizzlies.
Dallas has the offense going again, having scored 104 points or more in four of their last five games, going 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the process. And the Mavs aren’t playing bad on the road this season, winning five of their last six (SU and ATS) on the highway.
Dallas got a 117-101 win in New Jersey as a seven-point favorite and the only loss this team had on the road came in Cleveland on Saturday. It looks like center Erik Dampier might have figured things out, finally, as he put up 18 points and 11 rebounds last time out and is having a solid season.
Memphis is just getting back after a five-game road trip that saw it go 2-3 (1-4 ATS). The Grizzlies edged Minnesota on the road Wednesday 97-95 but came up short as a three-point favorite. They’ve failed to cover in each of their last three and four of their last five.
Dallas has won eight of the last 10 matchups with Memphis, but dropped the last two last season. Dallas is 5-4 ATS in the nine head-to-head matchups. Going back further, Dallas is 17-7-1 in the last 25 meetings and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 matchups in Memphis.
Like the way this Dallas team is playing on the road this season. Go ahead and lay the chalk and play the Mavs.
4♦ DALLAS
Jeff Benton
Milwaukee +4 at DETROIT
Hope you took advantage of Thursday’s easy freebie winner on the Nuggets. It’s back to the NBA on Friday, as I back the Bucks plus the points at Detroit.
One question: How in the hell can the Pistons be laying points to ANY team right now? They’ve lost eight of their last nine games, and they were favored just once during this stretch. That was against the Clippers … in Detroit … and the Clippers won 104-96! You know how many times during their 1-8 slump that the Pistons have scored 100 points? Zero. In fact, they were held to 91 points or less five times.
Granted, the Bucks have had their own struggles, losing five of their last six games following a 3-0 SU and ATS run. But Milwaukee’s last three were decided by exactly two points and eight of their last 12 were decided by six points or fewer. That should tell you this is a competitive Bucks ballclub.
Milwaukee has already defeated the Pistons this year (96-85 win on Halloween as a two-point favorite), and in their last trip to Detroit last season, the Bucks rolled 92-86 as a 6½-point underdog. Milwaukee is on ATS runs of 7-1 against the Eastern Conference and 4-1 as an underdog of less than five points, while the Pistons are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall, 17-35 ATS In their last 52 at home, 10-202 in their last 32 as a home favorite and 7-19-1 ATS In their last 27 against division opponents. Take the points, and enjoy watching Bucks rookie Brandon Jennings do his thing against a depleted Pistons’ squad that’s still without key cogs Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton (injuries).
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Dominic Fazzini
Indiana at UTAH -8
I continue to give you money-making opportunities for free as Oregon State covered the spread Thursday against Oregon. That makes me 19-6 over my last 25 complimentary selections, and I'm going to hand out an NBA winner today!
The Jazz, after a slow start this season, have really picked things up. They are 6-1 over their last seven games, including three straight wins, and have gone 7-2 ATS over their last nine games, covering in the last three.
Utah is 4-1 SU on its current homestand, and is coming off of a 120-93 victory Monday over Memphis. And now the team has had four days to rest and is likely getting versatile forward Andrei Kirilenko, who is averaging 13.4 points per game and is one of the NBA's best defenders, back after he missed Monday's game with a strained back.
Even if Kirilenko doesn't return tonight, the Jazz should be fine as they are shooting at a high percentage, largely due to the fact they are averaging 31 assists over their last three games. Forward Carlos Boozer also is playing his best ball of the season, averaging 23.9 points, 11.3 rebounds and 4.1 assists over his last nine games.
Defense is also propelling Utah, which is allowing an average of about 91 over its past seven games.
The Pacers, on the other hand, are struggling defensively, giving up 108 ppg as their have gone 1-7 SU and ATS over their last eight games.
Indiana has lost three straight games at Salt Lake City, and is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS as a road underdog and 0-5 ATS playing on one days' rest. Take the Jazz to cover the points tonight as they win by double digits.
4♦ UTAH
Karl Garrett
Indiana at UTAH -9
Thursday comp play winner on Oregon State-Oregon OVER the total.
For Friday in the NBA, look for the Jazz to feast on a tired Pacers team.
Indiana just lost on Wednesday night at Sacramento, as the Pacers have dropped 3 straight, and 7 of their last 8 both straight up, and against the spread.
Utah comes into this home game having last played on Monday night, and they are riding a 3-game win and cover streak as they hit the court this evening. Overall, the Jazz is on a 7-2 spread run, and their numbers in the series are also solid, as Utah has dumped Indiana in 3 in a row, and 5 of the last 6, while covering in 4 of those 6.
The regular season in the NBA can be a grind, and right now the schedule is not in Indiana's favor, as they take on a hot home team that hasn't played in 3 days.
Lay the wood with the Jazz.
3♦ UTAH
LT Profits
Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors
The Washington Wizards and the Toronto Raptors are two teams heading in opposite directions, and we look for the Wizards to post a rather safe win at home here tonight.
Many experts were predicting the Wizards to be the most improved team in the NBA this season, as when healthy, they do have a formidable starting unit. Well, Antawn Jamison made his season debit on November 18, joining Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler in the starting lineup, and all the Wizards did that night was upset the Cleveland Cavaliers.
As Jamison has been playing himself into game shape, Washington has indeed been playing like a playoff contender, as they have won four of their last fives games including a 106-102 win over these Raptors in Toronto on Tuesday. It is also worth noting that Earl Boykins is a top competitor for the Sixth Man of the Year Award this season with his play off the bench, so with Boykins or Arenas in the game, the Wizards have a quality point guard on the floor at all times.
While the Wizards are starting to catch fire, the Raptors have been plummeting with their current five-game losing streak, and they have played poorly on the road all season, where they are just 2-9 straight up and 3-8 against the spread while losing by a dreadful average of -11.1 points per game. Toronto is second to last in the NBA in defense, ahead of only the Golden State Warriors, and they have been simply atrocious on the road, surrendering 115.2 points per game.
The Wizards have the floor leadership at all times to take advantage of that dreadful defense, so lay this modest spot at home tonight.
Pick: Wizards -4
Tom Freese
Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Over
Utah is 16-5 OVER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 19-9 OVER their last 28 games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. The Jazz are 7-2 OVER off a double digit win and they are 4-1 OVER their last 5 home games. Indiana is 7-2 OVER their last 9 games as underdogs and they are 9-4 OVER vs. NBA Northwest Division games. The Pacers are 3-1-1 OVER their last 5 games when playing with one day of rest and they are 4-0 OVER their last 4 games as road dogs of 5.0 to 10.5. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Tony George
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Milwaukee +4
How about a road win for an average team? I say yes tonight. Detroit is a shell of their old selves, and are the walking wounded with Ben Gordon at best a game time decision. Makes no never mind, he has not paid dividends and with Prince and Hamilton still out, Detroit’s offense is not productive. Add in the fact Ben Wallace played 30 minutes in the last game and score zero points, and you have the makings of the wrong team favored. The Bucks can score, Jennings is a stud and they have some chemistry on offense, which is more than I can say for Detroit. With the backcourt of Bell and Jennings, that is the difference in this ballgame from a scoring standpoint.
John Ryan
Toronto Raptors vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Toronto +3.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto as they take on Washington set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 78% probability that Toronto will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-3 for 89% winners since 2004. Play on road teams that are explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season and after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half. AiS shows a 90% probability that Toronto will hit between 39 and 45% from behind the arc. Note that Washington is just 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when their opponents make 39% to 45% of their 3 pointers in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take Toronto.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Bobcats/Nets UNDER 181
Bottom Line: The Nets have been an Unders machine this season at 13-4-1 Under on the year. They know they can't run and gun with teams so they have taken the air out of the ball to compete. They see Charlotte as a real chance to end their skid tonight and that means that the Nets will really buckle down on the defensive end. Plus, Charlotte is a team that prefers to play half court hoops, only averaging 82.2 ppg on the road. New Jersey is 9-0 Under when it scores 86 or less points in a game this season and when you consider that it only averages 86.6 ppg, that's a strong possibility. We'll make a small play on the Under here.