Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 6

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Denver at Boston
The Celtics host a Denver team tonight that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games in Boston. Boston is the pick (+5) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+5)

Game 801-802: Philadelphia at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 112.903; Charlotte 116.222
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 3 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 6; 196
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+6); Under

Game 803-804: Milwaukee at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 105.499; Washington 122.170
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 16 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 10; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-10); Over

Game 805-806: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 108.904; Atlanta 119.858
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 11; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

Game 807-808: Orlando at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 116.981; New York 115.448
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 1 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 809-810: Denver at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 120.989; Boston 120.852
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 5; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+5); Under

Game 811-812: Golden State at Houston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 117.182; Houston 130.739
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 13 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 813-814: Oklahoma City at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.628; New Orleans 118.777
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4; 206
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-4); Over

Game 815-816: Toronto at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.167; Phoenix 118.269
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+4 1/2); Under

Game 817-818: LA Lakers at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 118.658; Sacramento 118.723
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3); Over

Game 819-820: Utah at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 110.621; Portland 126.807
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 16; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 11 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-11 1/2); Under

NHL

Detroit at New Jersey
The Red Wings travel to New Jersey tonight and look to improve on their 6-2 record in their last 8 games versus the Devils. Detroit is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105)

Game 1-2: Minnesota at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.597; Columbus 11.610
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-105); Under

Game 3-4: San Jose at Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.884; Carolina 10.392
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-175); Over

Game 5-6: Detroit at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.001; New Jersey 10.817
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over

Game 7-8: Anaheim at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.993; Chicago 12.827
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-175); Under

Game 9-10: Colorado at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.128; Calgary 10.501
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Under

Game 11-12: Phoenix at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.230; Vancouver 11.172
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+135); Over

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

Bowling Green/ Northern Illinois Under 58.5: Big games breed tightness, conservative play and Unders and I see this one shaping up that way. The winner of this game will win the MAC title, but more importantly for NIU is that a win here should put them in a BCS bowl. This game does feature some good scoring offenses but also the defense have been solid as well. The Bowling Green defense has allowed just 13.8 ppg this year, while ranking 7th in total defense and 4th vs the pass. On the other side we have a NIU defense that may be 74th overall, but they allow just 23.6 ppg on the year and have allow 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. I expect both teams to have trouble moving the ball in this one, which could give us a game in the 40's.

Brandon Shively

Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Golden State Warriors +6

Interesting enough, the road team is 3-0 SU and ATS the last 3 meetings. This will be the first time they have met this year, but Golden State is in great position to win this game. Golden State has went on the road and played some Western Conference teams tough this year. They lost by 2 @ San Antonio, lost by 4 @ Dallas (on a back-to-back), and lost by 1 @ Oklahoma State in overtime. The Warriors are scoring 108 ppg their last 5 games and shooting 41% from the 3 point line. The Rockets have come back to reality after beating the Spurs, now losing their last two games, both as hefty favorites. Chandler Parsons has missed those last two games and appears to be an important part in the Rockets offense. He is listed as questionable for this game, and I like Golden State to be able to run with the Rockets as Curry and Thompson are the best guard duo in the NBA.

Trends:

Warriors are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.
Warriors are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
Head-to-Head Trends:
• Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
• Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +3½

Sacramento (4-12) is favored but not playing well, 21st in points scored, 20th in points allowed. They shot 39% in their last game, a home loss to Oklahoma City. The Kings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss. The Lakers (9-9) aren't championship material but playing a lot better than the Kings. LA is well rested not having played since Sunday and the Lakers are on a 6-1-1 ATS run, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record. The Lakers are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Sacramento.

Rob Vinciletti

Orlando vs. New York
Play: Under 193½

This game fits a solid totals system that pertains to road teams with rest like Orlando that scored 120 as a road dog in their last game and covered the spread, vs an opponent like the Knicks that are off a road game with a point spread that was +3 to -3. Orlando has played under 6 straight times on the road off a road game where they scored 120 or more points, 3 of 4 with 2 days rest and 5 of 7 vs teams who allow 99 or more points. The Knicks have stayed under in 7 of 9 vs teams who average 99 or more points and have made it a point to trust each other and play better on the defensive side of the ball. the system above as cashed 90% since 1996. Look for this one to stay under.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Red Dog Sports

Thunder vs. Pelicans
Play: Under 208

These two have played 4 unders and 1 over in the last 5 meetings. OK City is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and Anthony Davis and his 18.7 ppg looks to be out. Take a look at the under on Friday night when the Pelicans face the Thunder.

Justin Bay

Orlando vs. New York
Play: Over 193½

Orlando Magic
- Average 101.75 PPG on the road
- Allow 104 PPG on the road
- Average 38.4 PPG in the paint
- Average 50 RPG
- 15.9 Turnover %

New York Knicks
- Average 96 PPG @ home
- Allow 111 PPG @ home
- Average 34.6 PPG in the paint
- Average 47.4 RPG
- 12.1 Turnover %

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -6½

Cleveland Cavaliers
- Average 92.8 PPG
- Allow 100.1 PPG
- Average 34 PPG in the paint
- Average 53 RPG
- .100 win % on the road

Atlanta Hawks
- Average 99.2 PPG
- Allow 99.5 PPG
- Average 41.4 PPG in the paint
- Average 48.9 RPG
- .667 win % at home

California vs. UC Santa Barbara
Play: UC Santa Barbara +2

California
- Average 75.2 PPG
- Allow 66 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 104.01

UC Santa Barbara
- Average 75.4 PPG
- Allow 73 PPG
- AOPR Rating: 109.62

EZWINNERS

Bowling Green +4.5

After taking the loss the last two times I have faded Northern Illinois you would think I have learned my lesson, but I think the third time is a charm. This number looks extremely low for the undefeated Huskies that can win another MAC championship and possibly a second straight BCS bowl birth with a win here against Bowling Green. NIU's offense scores over 42 points per game, but the old expression that "defense wins championships" will be put to the test in this game. Bowling Green sports the number one defense in the MAC allowing under 19 points per game. The Falcons offense also helps to contribute to the success of the defense because this Bowling Green team leads the nation in time of possession. If the Falcons can do that in this game against a Huskies defense that can be shaky at times they should be able to walk away with the straight up win. Take the points.

DAVE COKIN

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
PLAY: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER -4

I’m more about matchups and the math than anything else when it comes to handicapping sports. But there are a handful of trends that I’ll willingly play when the situation arises, and that’s the case tonight as Oklahoma City heads to New Orleans.

This is simple enough. The Thunder are one tough team when they’re playing off a loss. The numbers speak very clearly here. 55-13 outright and 45-22-1 ATS. There’s a rationale in play here as well. When a powerhouse team loses a game, chances are you’re going to get a big effort out of them the next time out. It’s certainly not chiseled in granite this will happen every time. But when it takes place as frequently as it has with the Thunder through what is no longer a small sample, it’s worth following.

The bad news is that there’s no bargain to be found with the number tonight. The Pelicans are playing pretty solid ball lately, winning six of their last nine, and they’d love to knock off one of the league’s elite tonight. There’s no way I expect this to be any kind of cinch.

But the main catalyst here is undeniable. Until such time as it’s prove that Oklahoma City is no longer reliable in this scenario, they’re play on material off a loss. That’s the situation tonight, and I’m going ahead with the call on the Thunder minus the points.

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Arizona State -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We think this is a generous line for Arizona State and we will gladly back the short road favorite in this spot. These teams are really very similar on the offensive side, both averaging about 75 ppg. But as has been the problem for the past several years, Depaul really struggles to defend teams in the half court. The Demons have allowed almost 75 ppg while the Sun Devils are only allowing 66 ppg, and keep in mind that State has played a much more challenging schedule so far this season. That early season 7-2 mark features a couple of really nice wins over UNLV and Marquette. Arizona State has a advantage on the glass as well, which will come into play. Devils just a better team and we like them in this spot.

Dave Price

Sacramento Kings -3.5

The Lakers have been a poor investment on the road where they are on a 19-32 ATS slide. When the very public Lakers have been installed as road underdogs, it's been a tip of the hand from odds makers as L.A. is on a 9-21 ATS skid when catching points on the road. The absolute worst time to back the Lakers on the road is when they check in off a loss at home. Consider that they are 1-13 ATS in road games following a home loss over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 107.9 to 101.0. The Kings are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four home games against the Lakers with the wins coming by 9, 17 and 16 points. Lay the number.

Jeff Alexander

Kentucky -3.5

The Wildcats will want this game just a little bit more as they will be motivated by last season's upset loss at home to Baylor. The Wildcats have been a solid non-conference investment at 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 versus non-SEC foes. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus Big 12 opponents. Additionally, Kentucky is 12-4 ATS when playing away from home versus teams that average 77.0 points or more per game since Calipari took over. They have held these teams to an average of 66.1 points while defeating them by an average of 6.6 points. Kentucky is the superior defensive team, ranking 4th nationally in field goal percentage defense. Its defense will be the difference tonight.

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Bowling Green Vs Northern IllinoisSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 58.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Northern Illinois Huskies are looking to remain undefeated and basically lock up a BCS berth, but the Bowling Green Falcons probably have the best defense the Huskies have faced all year as well as the ability to run the ball and kill some clock, thus keeping Jordan Lynch on the bench. The Falcons are ranked seventh in the country in total defense allowing 296.6 yards per game and fifth in scoring defense at 13.8 points, which is almost unheard of for a MAC team. Offensively, BGSU is averaging 209.7 rushing yards per game on 5.0 yards per carry, led by Travis Greene and his 1422 yards on 6.1 yards per rush. Now, Lynch will probably find a way to pull this game out for Northern Illinois, but we feel it will be a tough and relatively low-scoring battle. The ‘under’ is 21-8 in the last 29 Bowling Green conference games.
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California Vs UC Santa BarbaraFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: California -1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The California Golden Bears make their first trip to the Thunderdome since 1979 to face big man Alan Williams and the UC Santa Barbara Gauchos. Williams is averaging 27.5 points and 10.8 rebounds, but luckily for the Golden Bears, Richard Solomon has returned from his eye injury, giving Cal two big men to Santa Barbara’s one. Solomon should match up with Williams, freeing up David Kravish, who is averaging 12.8 points, 8.6 rebounds and has 17 blocked shots, to work on the other smaller Gauchos’ defenders. Those two bigs make the California defense impenetrable on the interior as the Bears are third in the country in two-point defense allowing a miniscule 39.4-percent success rate. Add in a tougher non-conference schedule so far and coming out of the better conference and California should prevail on the road. California is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. the Big West.

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Milwaukee Bucks + over Washington WizardsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There is little to like about what the Bucks have done so far this season at 3-15 and while no one expected Milwaukee to be a title threat, this was a team that many saw as a playoff team in the Eastern Conference and a team that could be on the rise. Injuries have taken a huge toll with three starters missing significant time, leaving the Bucks with a thin roster and forcing a lot of young players into significant action. The Bucks still have decent roster and this is a team that has likely bottomed out and will present value in the coming months. Along with the injuries this is a team in transition with a new coaching staff and system and several new additions after losing much of the scoring from last year's team. Milwaukee snapped its long losing streak last week and the Bucks will be up for this game after losing to the Wizards in overtime less than two weeks ago. The defensive numbers for these teams are nearly identical and Washington is being overvalued with its home court that has been strong in the last year. The Wizards have won four of the last five games and Washington is 6-2 S/U and 5-3 ATS at home this season. Washington is 1-3 ATS when favored by more than five points however and this will be the biggest favorite spread for Washington all season. It could certainly be a flat spot coming off big division wins over Atlanta and Orlando and while the Bucks continue to lose, three of the last four losses have come by eight or fewer points and Milwaukee has two overtime losses in the last eight games. Washington has nine wins on the season but none of the last eight wins has come by more than nine points as the Wizards play almost exclusively close games.