Jimmy Boyd
Oklahoma City Thunder -5
The Thunder have won eight of their last nine games. They are coming off a road loss against Portland, and I expect them to rebound with a strong performance against a Pelicans team that has not been a good team to back at home. New Orleans is just 3-6 against the spread in their nine home games this season. Oklahoma City should put up a big number against a Pelicans defense that is allowing 101.8 points per game. The Thunder have no problem scoring on the road, averaging 101.5 points in those games.
The Pelicans are 2-12 ATS in home games against good defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 43 percent or less from the field. New Orleans is allowing opponents to shoot just 42.7% from the field this season. The Thunder should also dominate the boards in this game. They average 54 rebounds per game. The Pelicans are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference opponents, and they are 1-4 ATS when playing with a single day of rest.
Doug Upstone
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Golden State Warriors +5
On Friday, Play On road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Golden State, who are averaging 103 or more points a game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. What has happened is the momentum from the last game carries over for the underdog and they are a sensational 29-5, 85.3 percent the past 17 years.
Don Best Consensus
76ers at Bobcats
Pick: Under
Charlotte is quietly the #2 defense in the NBA behind Indiana, allowing 91.7ppg. Under is 10-1-1 in CHAR last 12 overall. Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia's 2nd leading scorer at 17.7ppg, is expected to miss. Charlotte will be able to play their pace at home.
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Bowling Green +5 over Northern IllinoisFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game will be played at Ford Field in Detroit and while the Huskies are unbeaten at 12-0, the Falcons are not getting the respect they deserve. It is so difficult for a college team to run the table and that was further proved with four unbeatens losing outright over the past four weeks. No question this is a quality Northern Illinois team but they have also played one of the easiest schedules in the country and with that come a lot of crooked numbers. Additionally, the Huskies have surrendered far too many yards and points but the scoreboard has masked those defensive deficiencies.
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The Falcons are peaking at the right time and one can never ignore a quality team that has hit their stride at precisely the right time. Since losing to Toledo, Bowling Green has reeled off four wins in a row and averaged 44 points per game over that span. More impressively, the Falcons only allowed a total of 17 points against in all four of those games combined. The Falcons defense is ranked 5th in the country, allowing just 13.8 points per game in an offense oriented conference. In a game that the Falcons have every bit as equal a chance of winning as the Huskies, we’ll gladly step in and take back 5 big points. Upset possibility.
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Utah +11½ over PORTLANDFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jazz got off to a wretched start with one win in their first 15 games. They opened the season with eight straight losses and most of those were of the blowout variety. However, they are playing better now with three wins over their past five games. Those three victories occurred against the Bulls, Suns and Rockets and one of their losses over that span occurred against Indiana by nine. Trey Burke gave the field a head start, but he's gaining quickly in a winnable Rookie of the Year race. A newcomer to Utah's starting lineup, Burke has led the Jazz to their best stretch of the season and now the Jazz find themselves in a favorable betting spot.
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After 17 games, the Trail Blazers were sitting at 14-3 but were not getting much credit due to a soft schedule. All the so-called experts were suggesting that the Blazers were an improved squad but that they were not among the elite teams in the Association. The true test was about to come with Indiana and Oklahoma City on deck. Well, the Blazers answered the bell with two impressive victories over both those teams and put the rest of the league and fans on notice. This team is for real and in defeating the Pacers and Thunder, Portland has finally gotten the respect they deserve. That sets up this situational wager. With the Jazz in town, Portland is in a huge letdown spot in which they could easily get caught showing up in body only. This is a classic sell-high opportunity and one we’re buying into. One should never ignore situational handicapping and this one fits perfectly.
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VANCOUVER -½ +113 over PhoenixFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Coyotes have a very nice record that now sits at 16-8-4 but perhaps it’s time we start looking at this team as one that has been extremely lucky so far. The advanced stats on the Coyotes reveal a team that ranks 21st out of 30 teams in time of possession in the offensive end during even strength play. That ranks Phoenix below the Islanders, Florida and Calgary among others. The results of playing the majority of their games in their own end is starting to show up in the standings too. Phoenix has dropped six of its last nine games and that includes a 4-1 loss to Calgary. In that game in Calgary, Thomas Greiss started and allowed four goals on 18 shots (.778 save %), which only adds to the Coyotes goaltending woes. Prior to defeating the Oilers 6-2, Mike Smith’s save percentage in the previous four games was .886, .893, .826 and .867. In summarizing, the Coyotes are a team that is spending too much time in their own end and that’s not getting the goaltending to compensate. The reason for their winning record is an unsustainable 10% of their shots going in and once that normalizes, like it’s beginning to now, the Coyotes will head south in the standings.
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The Canucks return home from a four-game trip here but that’s something of no concern, as Vancouver has thrived in these situations before. Upon returning home from a 7-game trip in late October, Vancouver defeated the Capitals, 3-2 and outshot them 34-17. In mid-Novemeber, the Canucks returned home from a four-game trip to play the Sharkies and although they lost 2-1 in OT, they were clearly the better team, outshooting the Sharks 20-9 in the second period while dominating play for long stretches. This time the Canucks return home in good form, having picked up six out of a possible eight points on said trip. The Canucks rank third in the league behind Anaheim and Chicago in shots on net per game and 14 spots higher (at #7) than the Coyotes in time spent in the opposition’s end. The fact that the Canucks have fewer points than the Coyotes is a statistical anomaly that will correct itself soon. Lastly, the Coyotes have six wins in their past 22 visits to Vancouver and that’s when they were getting solid goaltending. That’s no longer the case.
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Wunderdog
Denver at Boston
Pick: Denver -4
The Boston Celtics had a good run when they brought in the Big-3, won an NBA Championship, and were a solid playoffs team every year. They have now all departed as well as the coach, and their best remaining player in Rajon Rondo remains out with a knee injury. What is left is a group of role players that have to fill starting roles, and not surprisingly Boston is 8-12. The Nuggets started slow at 1-4, but have gotten their act together, having gone 10-3 in their last 13, including seven of their last eight. They should not be overlooking this game off a distasteful loss last time out vs. Cleveland. Boston is now 3-8 ATS after scoring 100 or more in their previous game, and lack the consistent night in night out effort now. Lay the buckets and take Denver.
Larry Ness
Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
There was a lot of talk that Kobe would return for this game but that?s been shelved. The Lakers will have to make do without their star for at least one more game, when they try to win a third straight road game with their short-handed rotation Friday night against the Kings in Sacramento. Bryant practiced for a third straight day Thursday without any setbacks, though the Lakers dispelled the speculation he might play against the Kings. He did mention Sunday's contest against Toronto as a possibility, if he feels like he is ready to return from the torn left Achilles he suffered on April 12.
"Getting a rhythm under my legs, as far as stopping on a dime, raising up and shooting," he said. "And getting your game legs underneath you where you can shoot a jump shot comfortably." The Lakers (9-9) have won FIVE of seven but they'll be without yet another body Friday, with Jordan Farmar (9.2-4.4 APG) expected to miss four weeks after tearing his left hamstring in Sunday's 114-108 home loss to Portland. The loss of Farmar leaves Steve Blake (10.0-7.7 APG) as the team's only true point guard (and even he is dealing with elbow issues), as Steve Nash is still sidelined due to a back injury with no timetable for his return.
The Kings (4-12) have lost five in a row, though three of those defeats were by a combined five points and another was in overtime. However, the lone lopsided result was a 100-86 setback in Los Angeles on Nov 24, the Lakers' third straight victory in the series. Let me also note that the Kings are very deep at the guard position, with Thomas (17.6-4.5 APG), Vasquez (10.4-5.3 APG), Thornton (10.2) and McLemore (9.1). Sacramento has covered THREE of the last four when hosting the Lakers, and LA is still hated by these fans dating back to the Chris Webber/Vlade Divac days. Take the home team.
John Ryan
Toronto at Phoenix
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 200 points will be scored. The SIM projects that both teams will score fewer than 100 points, that Phoenix will score between 93 and 98 points, will make 71 to 77% of their free throws, and that Toronto will grab 48 to 52 rebounds. In past games, Toronto is 200-147 UNDER (+38.3 Units) when they grab 48 to 52 rebounds in a game since 1996. Phoenix is a money making 22-10 UNDER (+11.0 Units) when they make 71% to 77% of their free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons; 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Phoenix is off a most impressive 97-88 win over Houston and were installed as 10 point dogs. Phoenix is 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. Take the 'UNDER'.
Jack Jones
Houston Rockets -4.5
Off back-to-back losses for only the second time all season, I look for the Houston Rockets to be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they welcome the Golden State Warriors to the Toyota Center Friday.
Houston has had a significant home-court advantage this season, going 8-3 while outscoring opponents by an average of 8.9 points per game. Golden State is just 5-6 on the road this year and is getting too much respect from the books as only a 4.5-point dog in this one.
The Rockets have dominated this series of late, going 8-2 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 meetings with the Warriors. Seven of their eight victories came by 6 points or more. Houston is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Golden State overall, including 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home meetings.
Houston is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games overall, including 5-1 ATS in its last six home games. Golden State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Bet the Rockets Friday.
Joe Gavazzi
N. Illinois -3.5
There are 35 Bowl Games this year, meaning 70/125 lined teams will participate. It's a big deal. There is extra practice times for the teams, a monstrous payout to the schools, and nice gifts for the players. Everybody wins which is no small part why the powers that be have been resistant to go to a playoff system. To qualify for a Bowl, you must have 6 wins against division schools with a .500 or better record. I have released EVERY Bowl game for the last 30+ years. Always above .500, by how much varies. But I will isolate the strong plays with a better than 60% history and let you decide. Be careful who you follow, hard-work, experience and expertise should be what you are looking for! Right now you sign up for my Bowl Package, get the Early Bird Package and the rest of College FB from me FREE. Now onto Northern Ill, it's the 200 Club offense of N. Illinois vs. the Defensive Dandy as underdog. Bowling Green enters at 9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS with losses to Indiana, Miss St., and rival Toledo. The offense percolates behind QB Johnson and RB Green. It is the defense that allows 14 PPG that is the trademark of this team. But, these Falcons do not possess a lot of big game experience. Certainly not the kind possessed by perennial champion N. Illinois. In fact, this is the 4th consecutive Championship Game for QB Lynch, the best offensive player in the MAC. The balanced-explosive offense is enhanced by RB Stingily and WR Lewis. The Huskies have won 25 consecutive conference games and are on runs of 35-16 ATS, including 25-9 ATS in league play. Let's back the experience of the perennial champion, the best player on the field in Lynch, with the added motivation of a return to a BCS game.
Chris Jordan
My complimentary winner is on California against Santa Barbara.
This is actually a very interesting matchup, as Cal leaves Berkeley for the second time this season, and makes its way to Santa Barbara for the first time in 34 years. I'm pretty sure this intra-state matchup in the Thunderdome will be entertaining, but in the end, the Golden Bears will be too much for UCSB.
Cal has already won six of its first eight games, and coach Mike Montgomery appears to have his team off and rolling once again. And tonight will be a milestone win for him, as Montgomery will tie former UCLA head coach John Wooden for 27th on the NCAA’s all-time wins list for Division I men’s basketball coaches with tonight's victory.
UC Santa Barbara is 3-3 on the year, with wins over Hawaii-Pacific, UNLV and South Dakota State. Admittedly, the win over the Runnin' Rebels was impressive - I know, I was there - but I don't think the Gauchos pull it off a second time in a row. I personally think they caught UNLV off guard and another meeting would show how the Rebels are playing much more like the team that came close to knocking off Arizona State and Illinois.
And since Cal owns an all-time 71-4 record against current members of the Big West Conference, I think it's safe to say this is the right side of the game. The Bears are also on a 10-4 ATS run against teams from the Big West.
Lay the small road chalk here.
2♦ CALIFORNIA
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Sixers plus the points at Charlotte.
The way I see this game, have to play the underdog or you don't play the game at all.
Philly was able to stop a 4 game losing streak their last time out with an overtime win against Orlando, and they are a decent 4-4 against the spread on the road thus far this season.
As for Charlotte, the Bobcats have lost 4 of their last 5 straight up, and are only 4-6 against the spread on their home floor this season.
Series numbers show the 76ers having won 8 of the last 10 series meetings straight up, so backing them getting a few baskets is definitely of interest to me this Friday night.
With both teams struggling to find traction, this game looks like a toss-up to me, so take the points with Philadelphia.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Craig Davis
Friday night's free play is the Oklahoma City Thunder over the New Orleans Pelicans.
Free play for Friday is on the OKC Thunder to go to New Orleans and get a 9-point win over the Pelicans without the services of Anthony Davis.
Two reasons (well, actually there are several other reasons) that I like the Thunder in New Orleans tonight.
First off, as I gave you two nights ago, I knew the Thunder would struggle against a dominant big man inside. While Serge Ibaka is improving his offensive game for OKC, his one-on-one defense leaves a lot to be desired. LaMarcus Aldridge had his best game of the year and helped the Blazers earn a tough 111-104 home win. OKC owned an 11-point halftime lead and had more than their fair share of chances to win that game, but didn't. So I fully expect them to come to New Orleans tonight and unleash their frustration on New Orleans.
The Pelicans aren't the same team without Anthony Davis inside and I don't see how they're going to stop Ibaka and Durant at the same time. The Pelicans don't have the personnel to match up with them for four quarters.
OKC owns a 10-3 ATS record against the Pelicans in their last 13 meetings and 6-0 ATS in the last six down in the bayou. The Thunder have won six straight and nine of their last 10 SU vs. New Orleans and just simply seem to have their number.
Could get ugly tonight, but I'm calling a 108-99 final in favor of the Thunder.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Scott Delaney
On the heels of last night's blowout winner on Georgetown, my free winner for tonight is on DePaul plus the points at home against Arizona State.
DePaul opened the week with a 93-81 win over Pac-12 member Oregon State; tonight the Blue Demons will finish up its Pac-12 week with a win over Arizona State. The records don't indicate it, because DePaul is 4-3 and Arizona State is 7-2, but the Blue Demons are a formidable foe, maybe too much, for the Sun Devils on the road.
Hey, I've slowly become a bit of a fan of the Devils, after seeing Jahii Carson against UNLV, but after watching their vulnerability last weekend in the Wooden Legacy tourney, I think this trip to Chicago could be trouble.
The Sun Devils lost to Creighton, defeated College of Charleston and lost to Miami, Fla. Now the team switches time zones, not to mention a severe climate change, and will have to take on a rather physical Demons team that might be the most rigid squad - and stiffest test - Carson will have faced thus far.
ASU, which enjoyed weather from the high 60's since Monday - albeit it's decreased everyday to a high of 50's during the day and 30's at night - now enters a frigid zone. And no, this isn't football and they play inside an arena, but you still have to adjust, trust me.
The Demons are a team that is loaded with exuberance, and youth doesn't seem to be bothering it one bit, as a DePaul freshman has earned Big East Rookie of the Week honors in two of the first three weeks of the season. Tommy Hamilton IV was named the league’s Rookie of the Week on Nov. 18, then on Dec. 2 it was Billy Garrett Jr.
This is the only game for the Blue Demons, til next week, when they'll face Florida Atlantic on Thursday right here inside Allstate Arena. So there is no pressure, the team won't be looking ahead to anything and all focus will be on this game.
While the Demons have covered their last four games against Pac 12 teams, the Devils have failed to cover their last six against Big East teams.
3♦ ARIZONA STATE