Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 1,2010

OffshoreInsiders

Oregon vs Ohio State

USC not in a BCS bowl? Ohio State not even sniffing the national title discussion? Things sure have changed over the last couple of seasons. Though the Buckeyes can be reasonably happy to reach the Rose Bowl, 2009 doesn’t necessarily qualify as a success for Jim Tressel’s boys. Ohio State played championship-caliber defense this year, ranking fifth in the nation in (fewest) yards allowed. Cameron Heyward and Thaddeus Gibson highlight a front seven that many sports betting pundits feel is Ohio State’s best in a long time.
However, the Buckeyes’ sub-par offense held them back time and again this season. There’s still time for Terrelle Pryor to pull it all together but the sophomore pivot arguably regressed this season. He ran for 700 yards – his feet are just fine – but passing was another story. He threw 10 picks after throwing just four as a freshman.

The Oregon Ducks, on the other hand, are scoring machines. They ranked seventh in the country with 37.7 points per game this season. These guys run wild with the football. Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli is among the nation’s most dynamic offensive players. He ran for 12 touchdowns and threw for 15 more this season. He has a great complementary player in running back LaMichael James, who ran for 1,476 yards and scored 14 times. James topped 150 rushing yards in six different games and was the driving force behind Oregon’s No. 6 rushing offense.

Oregon leaves plenty to be desired on defense but the Buckeyes’ offense doesn’t scare anyone. It doesn’t take a genius to know that the Rose Bowl therefore comes down to whether or not the Buckeyes’ “D” can hold. I don’t think it can. Oregon ran wild on some solid defenses this year; it churned out a whopping 391 yards in its huge statement victory over USC. Ohio State won’t make it easy but the Buckeyes won’t score enough to keep pace with the high-octane Ducks. Pick Oregon.

pick: Oregon -4

Scott Spreitzer
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LSU at Penn State
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This isn't the LSU Tiger offense of their championship contending seasons. Instead, it's mediocre, relatively speaking. The Tigers have been held under 100-yards rushing on four occasions this season, and went just 1-3 in those games. It's hard to imagine the Tigers finding a consistent running game against Penn State's defensive line and linebacking corps. The defensive tackles will keep LSU's run-blockers off the LBs, so that unit can have a clear path to the ball carrier. On the other side of the ball, when was the last time Penn State QB Daryll Clark had a big game against a big name opponent? He was terrible in last year's bowl loss to USC, piling up some passing yardage only after the game had already been decided. He was a non-factor and even got injured in his action against Ohio State, and he was simply horrible against Iowa. The strength of LSU happens to be their secondary and linebackers, as far as I'm concerned. I don't believe Clark is going to all of a sudden discover the "sweet elixir." Look for both teams to struggle enough on the offensive side to keep this game lower scoring than expected. Good luck - Scott Spreitzer
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Play on: Under

VEGAS EXPERTS
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Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves
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Both of these teams come off an Over in their last game and eight of the last 10 meetings here in the Twin Cities have gone Over the total. What that does is set us up with plenty of value in going with the Under, considering the Magic are 60-37 Under the number the last three seasons with a total of 200 or greater. They are also 21-9 Under after scoring 110 or more points in their previous game. Minny is 9-0 Under when they score between 92 and 97 points and that's the range we see them finishing them in Friday night.
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Play on: Under

DAVID MALINSKY
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Northwestern @ Auburn
PICK: Northwestern +8
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Perhaps it is fitting that a little “Auld Lang Syne” sets this one up, because backing Pat Fitzgerald in this role has certainly been a friend to us the last couple of years. But the markets continue to not adjust properly, and that leaves the door open again.
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After taking over the Northwestern program at an awkward time following the tragic death of Randy Walker, Fitzgerald got off to the predictable slow start, but take a look at the current run – how about a crisp 17-7 ATS in his last 24 appearance in an underdog role. But it is much more than that, with the Wildcats winning the game outright 12 times in that run, and losing another in Overtime. So how do you do that and still remain an underdog so often? Largely because Northwestern wins without a lot of sex appeal. The Wildcats are a mirror image of their coach, who was a hard-nosed LB wearing the school purple not all that long ago. They compete hard and play smart, which keeps them in the hunt against opponents with superior talent, and the tactical abilities of Fitzgerald and his staff turn many of those close games into victories. They are “upsets” to most of the marketplace, but not to us.
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We see more of the same in this game, a rare case of an underdog of more than a TD not matching up badly at all. Auburn adapted well to the Gus Malzahn playbook this season, and Malzahn is a master at taking aggressive defensive schemes and exploiting them for big plays, with the Tigers having 12 offensive TD’s of 40 yards or more. But the Northwestern schemes are all about containment and stopping those kind of plays, forcing the opposition to have to execute cleanly to traverse the field. We have seen the Auburn attack get frustrated by such alignments this season, since it puts a premium on execution for a team still in the first year of a new playbook. The Wildcat defense will not shut the Tigers down, but they will slow them down, and that works for our purposes.
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The Northwestern offense works as well. There was nothing special about an Auburn defense that finished 51st in Total Defense and 73rd in Scoring, and having lost three starters in the secondary from the beginning of the season they struggle against short-passing attacks that want to control the ball. That is what the Wildcats do best under mobile QB Mike Kafka, who threw for 2,898 yards at a 65.7 percent clip, and note that one of the rare recent Wildcat failures in an underdog role came when Kafka got hurt vs. Penn State this season, a game they were still even at 13-13 in the fourth quarter before falling 34-13. If he was not hurt that afternoon they almost assuredly would have been in the money, and it is not out of the question that they could have won the game. We put them right in this one all the way, and no surprise if Fitzgerald grabs yet another outright underdog win.

ALEX SMART
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LSU @ Penn St.
PICK: LSU +2
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The Tigers sort of sputtered a bit down the stretch, but considering how brutal their schedule was, it's hard to blame them. Games against Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida at home and Washington, Georgia, Alabama, and Ole Miss on the road are no laughing matter. HC Les Miles should be thrilled that his squad can still successfully muster a ten-win season. The offense has just been brutal at times in 2009, ranking 107th in the land at just 309.8 yards per game. QB Jordon Jefferson has been the subject of a lot of criticism in Baton Rouge, as he only threw for 1,958 yards and 16 TDs this year in the rough and tumble SEC. Even though the defense only allowed 16.0 points per game, it's hard to argue that its numbers just aren't as good as they usually are. LSU's 'D' only ranked 26th in the land at 326.2 yards per game; for a Miles-coached team, better was expected even if the schedule was brutal.
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Penn State's problem this year was playing in Happy Valley. The Nittany Lions were crippled by both Iowa and Ohio State on their home turf and ultimately went just 2-6 ATS there. It was a relatively disappointing year for both RB Evan Royster and QB Daryll Clark, both of which were on the preseason Heisman watch list. Royster averaged 5.8 yards per carry and amassed 1,110 yards to go with six rushing scores. Clark threw for 2,787 yards and 23 TDs, but his ten INTs really drew the ire of Nittany Lion nation at times this year.
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LSU looks like a team on a mission right now. The Tigers played a significantly tougher schedule than Penn State, and they're ready for the challenge from one of the elite teams in the Big Ten. Don't look for a ton of offense in this one, but that's how the Bayou Bengals like it. Take the points all the way to the bank in this college football betting affair.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Northwestern +8.5
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The underdog has covered the spread each of the last 5 times the line has exceeded four points in this bowl series. With the public largely on Auburn, this tells me that the books are looking for a big payday with a Northwestern cover. Plus, the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. I'll side with the underdog for 1 Unit here.

Jim Feist
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Orlando Magic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +8½
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Minnesota has its frontcourt healthy with Al Jefferson and Kevin Love, and is playing good offensive basketball, on a 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS run. In fact, they are on a 13-4 ATS run. Orlando just finished a 5-game home stand and now starts the holiday season on the road. Are they going to be focused for the start of this 3-game road trip? Especially as a large road favorite. Orlando is 1-3-1 ATS its last 5 road games. Play the Timberwolves.

Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on West Virginia -2.5
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While Florida State would like to send Bobby Bowden out in style, I just can't see it happening here. FSU hasn't been able to stop the run to save its life this season, allowing 204 yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry. When playing away from home it's been even worse as the Noles are giving up 220 yards per game on a ridiculous 6.5 yards per carry. I believe it is asking too much for FSU to shut down Noel Devine and a strong West Virginia running attack averaging 183 yards per game. FSU's offense was QB Christian Ponder and I just can't see them getting the job done here without a guy that completed 68.8% of his passes for 2,716 yards and 14 scores against just 7 interceptions. Backup E.J. Manuel doesn't inspire much confidence as he threw just 2 touchdowns against 6 interceptions in relief of Ponder. FSU likely hangs around for a while, but when its all said and done, the Noles don't have enough playmakers on either side of the football to get the win here. Take WVU for 1 Unit.

SPORTS INSIGHTS

LSU vs. Penn State

After starting the season with five straight wins, LSU struggled against the top teams in the SEC, losing close games to Florida, Alabama and Mississippi. Like LSU, Penn State feasted on its weaker conference opponents this season, but did not have enough firepower to compete with Iowa and Ohio State for the Big 10 title.

Penn State opened as a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS and the public is heavily behind LSU. Sixty-five percent of spread bets are on the Tigers, which shrank the line to -2 early on at many sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights. Four positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on the Nittany Lions, including one each at ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units). With no recognizable Steam on Penn State to push their line back up, the consistent pounding of public support on LSU has just dropped the line to a pick at many books, including Grande, betus, Jamaica and bodog. Go out and grab this value on a public dog with lots of sharp money behind it.

Penn State -110

Northern Illinois vs. South Florida

Northern Illinois finished their season on a sour note, losing their final two games against Ohio and Central Michigan, the top two teams in the MAC. After a hot start, South Florida also struggled down the stretch, dropping five of their final seven games.

South Florida opened as a 4-point favorite at CRIS and public betting has pushed the line to -7. The Bulls are currently receiving 73% of spread bets, yet SportsInsights' Betting Systems have found value on the Huskies, triggering four positive Smart Money plays on Northern Illinois. Like our first game, two of these moves are from ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/VegasVic (+20.26 units), giving us the confidence to go against the public percentages and take the Huskies +7.

Northern Illinois +7

Mississippi vs. Oklahoma State

Coming off big wins against Tennessee and LSU, Mississippi was flat in their final game of the regular season, losing 41-27 to in-state rival Mississippi State. In the 2009 edition of the Oklahoma Bedlam Football Game, the Cowboys got thoroughly dominated by the Sooners, mustering a measley 109 yards of total offense in the 27-0 loss.

Mississippi opened as a 3.5-point favorite at CRIS and are currently receiving 67% of spread bets. Sharp money has jumped all of this game, triggering six positive Smart Money plays on Oklahoma State, including moves from, yes, you guessed it, ABC (+9.24 units) and Cata/Vegas Vic (+20.26 units). The Rebels are a 3-point favorite at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights, but Mississippi is giving an extra half-point at Carib, moving the spread off the key number of three. We like the Cowboys and are grabbing the three and a half while it's still out there.

Oklahoma State +3.5

INSIDER ANGLES

The significance of this Gator Bowl contest between the Florida State Seminoles and the West Virginia Mountaineers is that it marks the final game for Bobby Bowden as head coach of the Seminoles, and emotions will be riding high with this game being played in Florida.

In fact, the Gator Bowl has set aside over 300 tickets to be distributed among former Florida State players, setting up a huge tribute the 80-year-old Bowden, who is the second winningest coach in FBS College Football history.

It is with this backdrop that the 6-6 Seminoles will try to upset the 16th ranked 9-3 Mountaineers. That said, this is not an impossible task. Florida State does have a potent offense, averaging 29.8 points and 421.7 yards per game. They have a very balanced attack, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and an excellent 8.1 yards per pass attempt. The Noles can take advantage of a West Virginia defense that has not played as well away from home, allowing 339.6 yards per road contest.

While the Florida State contest has been clicking, the 24 points the Mountaineers scored in their season finale vs. Rutgers was their highest point output in their last five games. They would have a tough time coming from behind here should the Seminoles jump out to a quick lead, and that seems like a very good possibility given their emotional edge.

Finally, the task for the Mounties will not be made any easier by the fact that this is practically a road game, and they were just 2-3 on the road during the regular season.

Look for Florida State to ride their emotional wave to an upset here, sending the beloved Bowden off in style.

PICK: Florida State +2.5

BANG THE BOOK

Outback Bowl Opening Odds: Auburn -8 Total 54.5

New Year’s Day is upon us and this always marks the day when some really big bowl games start with big conferences and big teams facing off against one another for bragging rights and a bowl win.

This year the Outback Bowl will get the Northwestern Wildcats out of the Big Ten squaring off against the Auburn Tigers out of the powerful SEC.

Auburn plays in a very tough conference and its no surprise that they struggled mightily this year as they are just not skilled enough to compete with the elite in the SEC and this year the SEC was stacked with talent with such great teams to include Florida, Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU just to name a few.

Northwestern had a tough conference in the Big 10 but they also had inconsistent play that plagued them for most of the season. They were inconsistent at times and would lose to mediocre teams and beat powerhouses. The passing attack was the strength of this team and they thrived as underdogs.

The Wildcats are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 and Auburn has a myriad of trends that will oppose them in this game. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Auburn will not be able to stop the passing attack and slow down Northwestern.

Outback Bowl Pick: Northwestern +7.5

Gator Bowl Opening Odds: West Virginia-3 Total 60

When the Gator bowl kicks off this year it will be a very special bowl for the coach of the Florida St Seminoles. Bobby Bowden will coach his last game as a member of the Florida St. Seminoles and ironically he will face the team where it all started when they take the field, West Virginia.

West Virginia is off a good year but they fell short against some teams and it cost them in the end. They finished with wins against Pittsburgh and Rutgers and that was good enough for third place in the Big East and a spot in the Gator bowl. On the year they cost sports bettors with a subpar record against the number, but they were not as much of a disappoint as the Seminoles were.

The Seminoles started the season with ACC title hopes on the line and by the time the end of the season rolled around they were happy to be bowl eligible. The defense was torn apart and the end of the line for Bobby Bowden was here as he is being ushered out of the coaching spot although he wanted to stay for one more year.

For as bad as the ‘Noles played all it would take is this win to make everything alright on the year. They need to win one for the coach and they have all the tools to do it. They are playing this bowl game in Jacksonville and fans will come out to say farewell to one of the greatest coaches of the game. The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games, 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games, and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. The Mountaineers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. ACC and are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following an ATS win. Bobby Bowden will get his team fired up and go out on a winning note!

Gator Bowl Pick: Florida St. +2.5

Capital One Bowl Opening Odds: Penn State -2.5 Total 44

The big teams and the big matchup begin on the first of January and this is a big one as the LSU Tigers square off against the Nittany Lions of Penn St.These teams had identical seasons as both hoped for god things but just ended up losing to the elite of the conference.

For Penn St. the big hurdle was Iowa early in the season and then Ohio St sealed their fate and cost them the Big Ten Title. Joe Pa fielded a good team but at times became too predictable and one dimensional. They did not show up in the big games and this bowl is a good fit for them.

For LSU the schedule did not help them this year. Any team that plays both Florida and Alabama is certainly in for a long year and a couple of losses. To make matters worse the Tigers had a tip to Ole Miss on the schedule and ended up losing that game as well.

Neither of these teams impressed against the number this year and when looking at the numbers, Penn St has a slight edge on the defense. However this was against the Big Ten and the SEC is much better and the caliber of teams that LSU played will prepare them for this game. Jefferson is poised and the experience this year will help him lead LSU to a bowl victory. The Tigers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. The Nittany Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and will come up short in this contest.

Capital One Bowl Pick: LSU +2.5

Oregon -3.5 Total 51

Finally it’s time for the Grand Daddy of them all, the Rose Bowl! Every year the Big Ten Champion and the Pac-10 Champion meet in the Rose Bowl to duke it out to own the title of the Rose Bowl Champion! This year is one of the better bowl games of the year as the Ducks face off against Oregon.

Oregon started off the year with a negative losing at Boise St. and RB Blount throwing the punch that was heard around the world. The players and coaching staff deserve credit for coming back to steady the ship and winning the Pac-10 with big wins over Arizona, USC, and Oregon St.

Ohio St. finished on top of the Big Ten which is familiar territory for this team. They held off strong runs by Iowa and Penn St and emerged victorious but the questions swirling the “big game” still haunt the Buckeyes. They seem to lose all the big games out of conference and they have a very big challenge in the Ducks.

Oregon is strong offensively but if Ohio St. has strength it is on defense. Pryor needs to manage the game on the offensive side of the ball and the Buckeyes will win a big bowl game. They have been good to bettors over the years. The Buckeyes are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall and 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games on grass. They have a surprisingly good record in bowl games against the number. The Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. Jim Tressel and the Buckeyes get trounced by the Ducks and lose the Rose Bowl!

Rose Bowl Pick: Oregon -3.5

Sugar Bowl Opening Odds: Florida -10 Total 55.5

The Sugar Bowl has two great teams heading to New Orleans this week and one thing can be counted on. The offenses are going to light up the scoreboard. These two teams have been able to put up points at will this year and have not concerned themselves with defense.

The Florida Gators were one game away from playing in the Championship before losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship game. They will still be able to get ready in time for this game as Urban Meyer knows how to motivate his troops and this will be Tim Tebow’s last game.

Cincinnati has won the Big East and will look to run the table and remain undefeated by winning the Sugar Bowl but they will have to do it without their head coach Brian Kellly. Kelly left for Notre Dame and left this football team without their leader. The seniors claim they will show the world they are okay without him and with Tony Pike leading the offense they will score points.

The difference between these teams is defense. The Bearcats will not be able to stop the Gators on offense. The Gators will show the Bearcats a speedy defense they have not seen this year. The Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Gators are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Tim Tebow will make sure he goes out a winner and the Bearcats will get blown out in the Sugar Bowl.

Sugar Bowl Pick: Florida -10

Karl Garrett

Northwestern +8 at AUBURN

Thursday winner on Air Force outright over Houston to get the day started for free, and now the G-Man brings it on with Northwestern plus the points against Auburn.

The Tigers may be the better team, but to cover this game they are going to have to win by double-digits, and I just don't see that happening.

Auburn finished the season by failing their last 3 games when laying points, while Northwestern won and covered their last 3 games - including wins over bowl teams Iowa, and Wisconsin - and went 5-2 against the spread this season when getting points.

Northwestern is on a 10-3 spread run their last 13 in the dog role, while Auburn did close the season with outright losses in 5 of their last 7 games.

The Wildcats do have a decent aerial attack that should keep them in the hunt all the way.

Prefer the points in this one to open the year 2010.

Take the 'Cats!

5♦ NORTHWESTERN

Chris Jordan

Cincinnati at Florida, at New Orleans

We have two of the most explosive offenses in the nation, and we're inside a dome.

We have momentum from one of the most successful programs in the nation, and a Big East school looking to prove a point.

If this game doesn't wreak of an Over, I don't know what more to make of what a high-scoring game should look like.

I know there are a number of stats and trends out there that dictate an under, but believe me when I tell you this has turned into an intriguing game for so many reasons.

The Bearcats lost their head coach to Notre Dame, the Gators lost their's to health reasons. Cincinnati is hoping to roll to 13-0, while Florida is looking to save face after a humiliating loss to Alabama in the SEC title game.

All that being said, Cincinnati is sixth in the nation in total offense (464.3 yards per game) and scoring offense (39.8 points a game), and thought Florida bring the fourth-best defense (253.1) in the nation into this game, I believe the Gators are going to have to play offense to keep up in this game.

It would be the wiser choice, as Cincy's defense allowed an average of 36.5 points in its last four games and could be vulnerable to highly inspired Florida offense, which will be out to win one for their "former something or another coach."

The 'Cats won't be too concerned about stopping Florida, either, as they thrive on offensive shootouts, and would much rather have the Gators challenge them on the scoreboard than in the trenches.

This game will creep into the 60s midway through the fourth quarter, bet on it!

4♦ FLORIDA/CINCINNATI OVER

THE GOLDSHEET

Northwestern 24 - Auburn 23–It’s been a high percentage play to take a
touchdown or more in bowl games, and Northwestern has been a very good
underdog over the past two seasons. The Wildcats are 10-3 getting points in their
last 13 chances, and bowl dogs of 7 points or more are 70-36 the last 11 seasons.
Northwestern would appear to have what it takes to hang in with SEC-tested
Auburn. The Wildcat defense allowed just 3.7 ypc, led by jr. LBs Nate Williams
(79 stops) & Quentin Davie (81) and a pair of all-Big Ten defensive players in S
Brad Phillips (led team in tackles) & CB Sherrick McManis (3rd in conference in
interceptions). The defense reflects the personality of tough-as-nails Wildcat
HC Pat Fitzgerald, who played in NU’s only other New Year’s Day bowl
appearances, the ‘96 Rose and ’97 Capital One.

Offensively, the Wildcats boasted the second-best pass attack in the Big
Ten, keyed by QB Mike Kafka (2nd team all-Big Ten). The 5th-year
Northwestern senior minimizes mistakes and definitely adds a running threat,
as he has rushed for 857 yards and 10 TDs in addition to passing for 3733 yards
in his 29 appearances as a Wildcat. Kafka utilizes a number of receivers, led
by all-Big Ten wideout Zeke Markshausen (a Wes Welker type with 79 catches
this season). Three other receivers each caught 30 or more passes, including
Andrew Brewer, who led the team with 7 TD catches.

Auburn obviously can’t be taken lightly, as the Tigers ranked 20th in the
nation in total and scoring offense while slugging through an SEC slate
including Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee (all ranked in the top 20
defenses in the nation). Auburn has balance offensively, averaging 219 yds.
passing and 214 rushing, led by a pair of seniors in QB Chris Todd (3rd in the
SEC in passing efficiency) and RB Ben Tate (105 ypg rushing). OL star 6-8
monster Lee Ziemba (all-SEC) was a main cog in the attack from his left tackle
spot. But most of Auburn’s big offensive numbers were accumulated vs. lesser
non-conference opposition. And the Tiger defense wasn’t a vintage group,
allowing 27 ppg (73rd in the nation), due in no small part to season-ending
injuries to three 2ndary starters.

Northwestern goes into this bowl riding a three-game win-and-cover streak
that included victories over Iowa and Wisconsin. Conversely, Auburn followed
up a promising 5-0 start by limping into the postseason with losses in 5 of its last
7 games. The matchup of NU ace Kafka & his corps of reliable receivers
against a suspect Tiger 2ndary looks promising. Strong tech trends, a solid
defense, and a rare chance to play on New Year’s Day all point to a
Northwestern upset

West Virginia 31 - FLORIDA STATE 23—Gator Bowl officials jumped at the
chance to host Bobby Bowden’s final game for 6-6 Florida State, by-passing
several ACC teams with better records (including Atlantic Division champ
Clemson) in order to match the iconic Seminole head coach against West
Virginia, where Bowden started his Division I-A (now “FBS”) career. And
hundreds of former FSU players will be in the overflow crowd to celebrate their
college mentor’s luminous career. What chance does West Virginia have of
preventing the fired-up Seminoles from capping Bowden’s “retirement party”
with a feel-good victory?

Pretty good, actually. The chemistry among the FSU coaches is shaky at
best. Bowden has made it clear he was forced out even though he wanted to
return for one more season, and new head coach/offensive coordinator Jimbo
Fisher has already started to assemble his own staff. The Seminole defense,
although sure to battle hard for retiring coordinator Mickey Andrews, has been
nothing short of atrocious this season (at least by FSU standards), allowing a
staggering 444 ypg (No. 110 in the nation!). And highly-touted but very raw RS
frosh backup QB E.J. Manuel (2 TDP, 6 ints. in the last 3 games) remains at the
trigger of the Seminole offense due to jr. Christian Ponder’s late-season
shoulder injury.

Sure, West Virginia’s attack struggled to establish an identity this season sans
departed run-oriented star QB Pat White. But the Mountaineers still have
mercurial jr. RB Noel Devine (1297 YR on 5.8 ypc, 13 TDs), who’s back at full
speed after being slowed by an ankle injury. More importantly, West Virginia’s
veteran stop unit (only 21 ppg) is much stouter than the poor-tackling FSU
defensive platoon. (DNP...SR: Florida State 2-

Lsu 24 - Penn State 16—A lot has changed since Joe Paterno’s first bowl
game as Penn State’s coach, in the Gator Bowl vs. Florida State way back on
December 30, 1967, which was the day before the famous “Ice Bowl” NFL title
game between Dallas and Green Bay. The Noles, then coached by Bill
Peterson, were still nine years from Bobby Bowden’s arrival. Both the Nittany
Lions and FSU were independents in those days. Games could also still end
tied back then, as that Gator Bowl did, finishing level at 17.

We suspect a different twist on the “change” theme will apply to this battle in
Orlando...a “change” from most of Paterno’s postseason results since the ‘67
Gator Bowl that have often ended up favoring the Nittany Lions (23-11 SU in
bowls since), that is. In recent years, “Shades” has hardly been an automatic
go-with in bowls, dropping 3 of his last 5. And we’re a bit surprised Penn State
is favored, not only because we and most others regard the SEC (9-3 as a bowl
underdog since ‘06) a few notches above the Big Ten, but also considering the
Nittany Lions’ abject failures in their two toughest games of the season, home
dates vs. Iowa and Ohio State, in which o.c. Galen Hall’s attack was completely
stymied by the best defenses on Penn State’s schedule.

LSU’s big, fast, and athletic “D” faced more difficult assignments and should
keep QB Daryll Clark and the Nittany Lion “O” in check, much as the Hawkeyes
and Buckeyes did earlier this year. Granted, the Tigers were often choppy on
the attack end, with HC Les Miles, perhaps wary of the mistakes committed by
last year’s QBs, often guilty of playing things too safe with soph QB Jordan
Jefferson. The continuing absence of injured RB Charles Scott (collarbone) is
also a concern. But Jefferson still has enough weapons at his disposal to fire
the deciding scoring shots. And, for what it’s worth, Miles (4-0 SU and vs. line
in bowls at LSU) has been a better postseason bet than Paterno in recent years.
(DNP...SR: Penn State 1-0)

Oregon 26 - Ohio State 19–This is an interesting matchup of Ohio State’s
“Silver Bullet Defense,” which ranks as the best in the Big Ten and 5th in the
nation, against Oregon’s high-octane offense (38 ppg, 6th in the nation in
rushing). Ultimately the Duck offense has a wider variety of potential
playmakers than Ohio State, and the combination of high-quality speed and
power will tip the scales in Oregon’s favor.

The Duck attack starts with feisty triggerman Jeremiah Masoli, who has
thrown for 15 TDs vs. only 5 interceptions this season. Impressively, the jr. QB
has also rushed for 22 scores in his last 16 games. The running attack
blossomed this year despite the well-publicized suspension of LeGarrette
Blount after he “went Mike Tyson” at the end of the opening-game loss at Boise
State. Blount was eventually reinstated and blasted for 51 yards on 9 carries
and an important TD in the Rose Bowl-clinching finale against Oregon State.
Redshirt frosh RB LaMichael James made the most of Blount’s suspension,
running for 1476 yards and 14 TDs while being named the Pac-10 freshman of
the year. WR Jeff Maehl and TE Ed Dickson (first team all-Pac-10) were
particularly effective, combining for 94 catches and 12 TDs. Obviously, the
Duck OL had a lot to do with Oregon’s 5.5 ypc, and that group proved itself
despite entering the season with just 20 career starts.

Ohio State has relied on an outstanding defense and the playmaking ability of
QB Terrelle Pryor. The athletic 6-6, 235-lb. soph QB has either thrown for or
scored 42 touchdowns and has 4477 yards in total offense in his 25 games as
a Buckeye. However, Pryor hasn’t been a consistent passer, as he ranked 10th
in Big Ten in pass efficiency and Ohio State was 106th in the country passing
yards. The Buckeye attack turned in much the same numbers in 2009 as it did
in 2008, but didn’t have quite the explosiveness that it did in ‘08, when RB Beanie
Wells and WRs Brian Hartline & Brian Robiskie (all currently in the NFL) were
scoring touchdowns with regularity.

Ohio State has won all 7 meetings against Oregon, including the memorable
1958 Rose Bowl, but that was then; this is now. The Ducks are big, strong and
fast on both sides of the ball. Masoli has come up huge in some key games,
including last year’s Holiday Bowl against Oklahoma State (106 YR, 3 TDR, 258
YP), this season against Pac-10 foes Southern Cal (386 yds. total offense),
Stanford (334 YP), and Cal (253 YP & 3 TDP). Conversely, Pryor has come up
short more often than not in similar situations (5 of 13 passing for 66 yds. in last
year’s Fiesta Bowl vs. Texas; 229 total YP & 0 TDs in a pair of losses to USC in
‘08 & ‘09; just 187 YP in two meetings with Michigan). Chip Kelly has shown in
a very short time at Oregon that he’s a special coach, so steady, seasoned OSU
headman Jim Tressel might not be the decisive difference. Not with the athletes
the Ducks have on hand. (DNP...SR: Ohio State 7-0)

*Florida 42 - Cincinnati 24—An avalanche of off-field news for these two
teams since they last took the gridiron about a month ago. First, Cincinnati head
coach Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame just a few days after his Bearcats closed
an undefeated regular-season with a thrilling 45-44 come-from-behind road win
over Pitt. Central Michigan head coach Butch Jones will succeed Kelly at Cincy
(as he did with the Chippewas), although it will be up to offensive coordinator Jeff
Quinn to lead the Bearcats in this bowl game before he leaves to become the
new head coach at Buffalo. Florida’s highly-respected defensive coordinator
and ace recruiter Charlie Strong was hired to take the helm at Louisville around
the same time, and he’s been doing double-duty with the Gators and the
Cardinals the last few weeks. But the big bombshell came the day after
Christmas, when UF announced that Urban Meyer—he of the two national
championships in just five seasons as head coach in Gainesville—would be
leaving his job due to health concerns. That was subsequently amended, with
Meyer now slated to take an indefinite leave of absence following this game.
Stay tuned for further developments.

In some respects, the matchup on the field seems eerily similar to last year’s
Sugar Bowl, when heavily-favored Alabama, unable to shake the lingering
disappointment of losing the SEC crown (and a spot in the BCS title game) to
Florida, was picked apart by undefeated upstart Utah. And quick-striking Cincy
is certainly a dangerous dog with pinpoint sr. QB Tony Pike (26 TD passes vs.
only 6 interceptions despite missing three games) firing away to acrobatic 6-4 jr.
WR Armon Binns (10 TDC in the last eight games) & scintillating sr. WR Mardy
Gilyard (11 TDC, 3 more scores on kick & punt returns). Still, Meyer’s possible
swan song should give the Gators & indomitable star sr. QB Tim Tebow the
inspiration that the Tide lacked last year. And it’s impossible to ignore the
HUMONGOUS defensive edge that miserly Florida (allowing just 12 ppg—No. 3
in the nation) enjoys over the much more magnanimous Bearcats, who’ve been
scorched for 37 ppg in their last four.
(DNP...SR: Florida 1-0)

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

LSU
Joe Paterno has built a fine record in bowl games over his 44 seasons as
Penn State’s coach, but in recent years those numbers have not been
overwhelming, dropping 3 of his last 5 vs. the number in postseason play.
And we don’t see things improving vs. LSU in the Capital One Bowl New
Year’s Day in Orlando. Remember, the Tigers have won and covered their last
four bowls under HC Les Miles. And LSU has been a main contributor to the
SEC’s stellar recent bowl pointspread record (12-4 vs. line apst two seasons
and 18-7 since 2006). The Tigers are also 15-6 vs. the line against non-SEC
foes since Miles arrived in Baton Rouge in 2005.

NORTHWESTERN vs. AUBURN (Outback, January 1)...Since NU began
appearing in bowls fourteen years ago, the Wildcats are 0-6 SU but they did
get a cover LY in the Alamo vs. Mizzou. Fitzgerald covered his last 3 TY and
has covered 7 of his last 8 away from home. NU also has covered all 8 tries
as a dog away from Evanston since LY! Chizik no covers his last 3 as chalk
TY, and Tigers failed to cover their last 3 away from Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Cats also in profitable 7+ bowl dog territory (61-32 vs. line this decade). Tech
edge-Northwestern, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE vs. WEST VIRGINIA (Gator, January 1)...Bowden
Bowl! FSU just 3-8 vs. line TY but note Bowden is 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 bowls,
including a win over his old affiliation WVU in this same Gator Bowl five years
ago, 30-18. Bill Stewart closed with three straight covers, all in close games,
but he’s still just 9-16 vs. line since last season. Stewart 2-0 SU in bowls (1-
1 vs. line) and Mountaineers have won SU their last 4 bowls since that ‘05 Gator
loss vs. FSU. Tech edge-slight to FSU, based on recent bowl trends

LSU vs. PENN STATE (Capital One, January 1)...Shades has historically
had success in bowls (23-12 vs. line and 12-3 as chalk) but is only 2-3 vs. line
last five bowls. Tigers 4-0 SU and vs. line their last 4 bowls with Les Miles.
Miles also 15-6 vs. line at LSU vs. non-conference foes since arriving in ‘05.
Note SEC 6-2 vs. line bowls each of last two years and 18-7 vs. number in
postseason since ‘06. Tech edge-LSU, based on team and bowl trends.

OHIO STATE vs. OREGON (Rose, January 1)...Rematch of 1958 Rose
Bowl won by Ohio State, 10-7, Woody Hayes over Len Casanova’s Ducks.
Tressel 5-2 vs. line in last seven bowls (he’s 5-3 vs. line in bowls with OSU)
but 1-2 last 3. Tressel did cover twice as dog TY vs. USC & Penn State but just
4-3 as dog since ‘06. Ducks have won and covered their last two bowls
impressively, both as dog (when Chip Kelly was o.c.), but enter having
dropped 3 of last 4 vs. line TY. Pac-10 9-2 vs. line in bowls the past two
years. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on recent bowl mark.

CINCINNATI vs. FLORIDA (Sugar, January 1)...Urban Meyer 5-1 SU and
vs. line in bowls. Gators, however, just 3-5 vs. number last 8 TY after
covering 12 of previous 13. Cincy actually failed to cover last 4 on board TY
(all as chalk) but was 4-1 vs. line last 5 away from Nippert. Bearcats also 10-
4 vs. line last 14 as dog. Note 7-13 1/2-point bowl dogs 58-28 this decade.
Tech edge-slight to Cincy, based on team and bowl trends

CKO

11 NORTHWESTERN over Auburn
NORTHWESTERN 26 - Auburn 23

After posting big offensive numbers vs. soft early slate and zooming to 5-0 SU mark for new HC Gene Chizik, Auburn tailed off noticeably, dropping 5 of last 7. A steady diet of SEC defenses slowed o.c. Gus Malzahn’s spread, and Tigers also fell flat on road, dropping their last 3 away from Jordan-Hare. Although Pat Fitzgerald’s well-schooled NU “D” lacks SEC quicks, it has seen the road map to contain Tigers, while Cats’ sr. QB Kafka emerged as an uncanny playmaker in NU’s late-season uptick. Note that Cats have also covered their last 8 as a dog away from Evanston (including Alamo Bowl LY vs. Mizzou).