Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 1,2010

POINTWISE:

OVERALL

Quick, which of the above teams owns the better won/loss record? Without
peeking, we would guess that the vast majority of fans would say the Tigers of
Auburn. So, despite the fact that the Wildcats of Northwestern actually have the
better SU log, they've been pegged as TD dogs in this contest. The fact that
Auburn has played a tougher schedule, coupled with its final margin edge, bears
out the spot. For the 'Cats, this marks their 7th bowl slot over the past 15 years,
& altho they've covered 2 of their last 3 holiday games, the word "success" hardly
describes their post-season play. As a matter of fact they've not won a bowl
game since the 1948 Rose Bowl. They've made steady progress under 4th-year
head coach Pat Fitzgerald, & need this for their 2nd straight 9 win season. Standing
at just 5-4, they wound up the season by winning their final 3 games, all as dogs
(+43½ pts ATS), including posting 1 of only 2 losses on then 8th-ranked Iowa,
while doubling the Hawkeyes' overland production. They are led by QB Kafka
(65.7%), who finished 2nd in the BigTen with 264.6 PYpg. For Auburn, this is
marks its 35th bowl campaign, & 12th in the last 15 seasons. Last year's rare
miss resulted in securing Gene Chizik as new head coach. He & his staff opened
at 5-0 (4 covers), while averaging 254 RYpg & 259 PYpg. An offensive dream.
But 3 straight losses, & an eventual 7-5 mark, despite extending Alabama to the
final 1:42. Todd (2,377 PYs, 21 TDs), Tate (1,254 RYs, 8 TDs), & Adams (17.8
yds per catch, 10 TDs) present a more than formidable task for the Wildcats. But
the dog is on 13-1 & 29-9 spread runs in Northwestern games, as well as 28-16
ATS in Auburn contests. And the Tigers haven't won a bowl by >3 pts since '03.
PROPHECY: NORTHWESTERN 27 - Auburn 25 RATING: 4

Just the 2nd meeting between these traditional gridiron powers, the Nittany Lions
of Penn State, & the Tigers of LSU. That 1st match, by the way, came in the '73
Orange Bowl, with the Lions (-5½) prevailing 16-9, despite managing just 9 FDs,
& being outgained 479-213. Paterno, of course, is a legend, with the most wins in
major college football history (393), while posting a 23-11-1 bowl record. This
marks the 5th straight bowl season for the Nits, which may seem a bit odd. But
the fact is that PennSt posted 5-7, 5-6, 3-9,& 4-7 records in '00, '01, '03, & '04,
before its recent surge, which has the Lions at 50-13 since '05. With its "Spread
HD" offense, led by QB Clark, & RB Royster, PSt finished the '08 season with the
11th ranked scoring "O" (41 ppg). A definite drop this year, ranking 33rd in that
column, with a 36 ypg deficit from '08. But still a 10-2 record, altho they haven't
beaten a ranked team all season. In their showdown home loss to OhioSt, they
posted just 9 FDs, & had a 228-76 RY deficit. Oh, they've had their moments, to
be sure, behind Clark (62%, 2,787 PYs, 23/10), & Royster 1,104 RYs, & note a
4-0 ATS log away from home, by 62 pts! The Tigers have also been unimpressive,
for the most part, despite just 3 losses, by a combined 21 pts, with 2 to
Florida & Alabama. Remember, LSU has won 2 national titles over the previous 6
years, & under head coach Miles, has scored 40, 41, 38, & 38 pts in covering its
last 4 bowl contests by a combined 111 pts! That is simply amazing. In QB
Jefferson (62%, 16/6) they have an efficient leader, altho he will be put to the test
by the Lions' 8th-ranked "D" (14th in passing efficiency "D"). We simply cannot
ignore that incredible post-season success of the Bengals, so we'll grab the spot.
PROPHECY: LSU 24 - Penn State 17 RATING: 4

The "Bowden Bowl". What a fitting finale for one of the sports all-time greats, as
Bobby Bowden, head coach of the Seminoles of Florida State, takes on his old
team, the Mountaineers of West Virginia. This marks the 28th straight bowl
season for the 'Noles, & the 31st bowl appearance in Bobby's 34 years at the
helm. And it is the 21st time he has led the Sems to a New Year's Day or later
bowl game. By the way, the 28-year streak began with a Gator Bowl meeting
against none other than WestVirginia (31-12 FloridaSt win, as a 2½ pt chalk).
And the 'Noles also took the Mounties, 30-18, in the '04 Gator, as 10 pt favorites.
Just a 6-6 record for FlaSt this year, as they had to win 2 of their final 3 games to
do it, & that includes a 29-26 home win over 2-10 Maryland, as a 19-pt chalk.
Two factors have undermined Bowden's squad this season, namely a horrible
"D" (110th in total, & 97th in scoring), which allowed 36 ppg in 'Noles' final 7 tilts,
& the loss of QB Ponder (shoulder). His replacement, Manuel has thrown for
just 2 TDs & 6 INTs. The Mounties, on the other hand, have continued their
recent excellence (51-12 since the beginning of the '05 season), altho the departure
of QB White has had a dramatic effect on WVa's scoring, as it hasn't topped
35 pts in its last 23 games. RB Devine (1,297 yds) is a long distance threat,
whenever he touches the ball, & QB Brown (64%) is a good one. The dog has
covered all 4 WVa bowl contests since '05, & the 'Noles are 4-0-1 ATS in their
last 5 bowls. So, with Bobby going for win #389, it may seem a Seminole call.
But there is just no way of getting around the many FloridaSt deficiencies this
season. With the spread under a FG, we'll go with the better team, the Mounties.
PROPHECY: WEST VIRGINIA 33 - Florida State 23 RATING: 2

What a match! It seems impossible, but this marks the first Rose Bowl game for
the Buckeyes of Ohio State since 1997. However, that fact is simply the result of
the emergence of the BCS, & all its glory. Thus, despite winning the BigTen title
the previous 4 years, the Bucks played in 2 BCS Championship games, as well
as 2 Fiesta Bowls. Thus, they are more than happy with the change in venue, as
well as a return to this traditional wonder. Under Tressel, the Bucks have posted
an enviable 86-16 record since '02, beginning with that upset of mighty Miami in
the '02 Fiesta, to claim the national title. But recently, they've come up short at
season's end, losing 3 straight bowl games, including a pair of BCS title contests.
This season, they again field one of the top "D"s in the nation, ranking
among the Top 10 in five defensive categories, including 3rd in scoring. But
inconsistency has been their byword this year, with totally dominating showings,
such as its 228-76 RY edge at PennSt, but 22-8 FD & 368-184 TY deficits vs
Wisconsin. And QB Pryor is the epitome of sporadic success (56%, 15/10),
altho he has run for 707 yds. For the Ducks of Oregon, this is just their 1st Rose
Bowl since '94, as their brilliant success over the past 21 years (17 bowls) has
taken a back seat to the awesome accomplishments of USC. Led by frosh RB
James (1,475 yds, 6.9 ypr, 14 TDs), & QB Masoli (59%, 15/5), they've averaged
42 ppg in their last 9 outings, with their only loss since their opener coming at
Stanford, 51-42. And Blount's reinstatement is just another huge weapon for
coach Kelly, taking the pressure off James. The Buckeyes are formidable, to be
sure, but the Ducks simply have too many answers. We'll lay the FG in this one.
PROPHECY: OREGON 34 - Ohio State 24 RATING: 3

Just 1 second. Just 1 tick of the clock. That's all that kept the Bearcats of
Cincinnati from playing for the BCS National Championship. But Texas was
given a reprieve, & that was that, & Cincy, instead of playing for all the marbles,
has been given the unenviable task of trying to prove their worth by taking on the
mighty Gators of Florida. The oddsmakers sure aren't phased by national
rankings, as they've pegged the 5th-ranked Gators as double digit chalks vs the
4th-ranked Bearcats. A year ago, Florida entered its BCS title game with Oklahoma,
with a 45-13 ppg edge, a 22-16 FDpg edge, a 230-105 RYpg edge, & a
213-174 PYpg edge. Well, a look above shows that, except for the 10 ppg drop,
the remainder of the Gators' stats are very similar. Thus, despite their flop in the
SEC title game, this squad is again a powerful force. Its 4th ranked "D" is a full
97 ypg edge over the Bearcats; it still has Tebow (65%, 2,413 yds, 18/5, along
with 859 RYs & 13 TDs); & it still has Meyer as its head coach. We mention
that, because the Bearcats do not have Brian Kelly on the sidelines for this
game, as he has moved on to NotreDame, with Jeff Quinn serving as interim
head coach. Not the best of situations, to be sure. Cincy is a quick-strike
squad, averaging 5.1 ypr, as well as 9.0 ypp. QB Pike ranks 9th in the land in
passing (63%, 2,350 yds, 26/6), with WRs Gilyard & Binns combining for 2,009
yds & 21 TDs. And Gilyard has also returned 3 kicks for TDs. A year ago,
Alabama, after losing to Florida in the SEC title game, simply went thru the
motions in an embarrassing 31-17 Sugar Bowl loss to Utah. We have to see
that as a learning experience for Meyer, Tebow, & Co. Despite Meyer's shocker.
PROPHECY: FLORIDA 41 - Cincinnati 24 RATING: 3

NELLYS GREENSHEET

Auburn (-7) Northwestern (54½)
The Tigers started the season with great promise at 5-0 but this is a team that has limped to
the finish line, losing five of the last seven games with one of those wins being against FCS
Furman. On the other side Northwestern closed the season with three consecutive wins, all as
underdogs and the 8-4 Wildcats were selected over 9-3 Wisconsin with that momentum and
win in the conference finale between those teams. Statistically these teams have fairly similar
defensive numbers but Auburn has had to battle through the more challenging schedule.
Auburn also rushes for nearly twice as many yards as the Wildcats as this is not the
Northwestern team of years past that generally has a sound running attack. Mike Kafka is a
very solid QB for Northwestern and he will be the difference maker if the Wildcats are to have
a chance in this game. QB Chris Todd had a decent year for Auburn in the new system but
the Tigers an inconsistent team on offense. While this bowl game is in a southern city,
Northwestern fans typically travel well and there should be solid support for both sides in this
first ever meeting between these teams. Northwestern has been a solid underdog ATS team
but this is still a program that has not won a bowl game since 1948. Last year the Wildcats
were close, hanging with Missouri for an OT loss and while Auburn should be the team with
superior talent the Wildcats are just one of those teams that is tough to pull away from. All of
Northwestern’s wins came by ten-points or less and a few of the games were contests that the
Wildcats probably deserved to lose but Coach Fitzgerald has done a great job with this team
since taking over in tough circumstances. This will be the first bowl game for Auburn Coach
Chizik and the Tigers didn’t play many close games, either winning or losing by fairly large
margins most of the time. While Northwestern is a tough team to go against, this looks like a
bad match-up as Auburn should be able to pound the ball if they are able to establish a lead in
the game. The Tigers should not take this game lightly given how poorly the season finished
and recall that this is a team that nearly knocked off Alabama in its last game of the regular
season, leaving a confident but hungry squad. AUBURN BY 10

RATING 1: Auburn (-7) over Northwestern
RATING 2: ‘UNDER’ (54½) Auburn/Northwestern

West Virginia (-2½) Florida State (60½)
The Gator Bowl used some fine print in the contract clause with the ACC to steal 6-6 Florida
State for this bowl game while bumping down more deserving squads. While it may not be
fair, it does make for an entertaining match-up and outside of the top few bowls these games
are all about driving interest, attendance, and ratings. This will be Coach Bowden’s final game
and he will match-up against a school he formerly coached. Florida State finished just 6-6 but
the schedule was among the toughest in the nation and a lackluster FSU squad came to play
in the bowl season last year with a blowout win that has Bowden at 21-10-1 all-time in bowl
games. As a result of the historical implications and the prestige of the FSU program the
Seminoles are likely to be a very popular dog play in this game. Florida State only covered
three times all season however and West Virginia is an awfully good team. Many expected
this Mountaineers team to be a middle-of-the road Big East team but they have a chance at a
ten-win season with a win in this game. All three losses came in competitive road games
against bowl teams and the Big East rated as a quality conference this season unlike many of
the past recent years. West Virginia allowed 114 fewer yards per game on the season and ten
fewer points per game on defense while nearly matching the FSU numbers on offense. The
Mountaineers are an excellent rushing team, averaging 183 yards per game and this was also
a team that got a lot of big plays on special teams. Outside of the early season shocker at
BYU, Florida State’s wins all came by very slim margins even against FCS Jacksonville State
and some of the weakest teams in the ACC. Florida State was out-rushed by over 100 yards
in six of the final nine games of the season and that is likely to be the case again in this
match-up. Buying into the sentimental pick in this game could be a big mistake as Bowden’s
players have had plenty of chances to play hard for their coach and rarely have came through
with great performances this season. WEST VIRGINIA BY 7

RATING 1: West Virginia (-2½) over Florida State

Penn State (-2½) Lsu (44)
Although LSU was not that impressive this season, this is still a team that went 9-3 despite
playing a very tough conference draw. This team performed better than last year’s 8-5 LSU
squad that met a lot of criticism and had a few suspect performances and that team blew out a
highly regarded Georgia Tech team in the bowl season. The chasm between the strength of
schedule ratings for these teams in tremendous as Penn State played an incredibly light nonconference
slate and got to play the top two Big Ten teams at home, both games that they
lost. Comparing the statistics between these two teams is not even remotely fair, but knowing
the incredible scheduling disadvantage that LSU faced, the Tigers only allowed 16 points per
game and 326 yards per game, just slightly worse numbers than the Lions put up. Senior PSU
QB Darryl Clark actually had a worse season than last year by most measures and the
running game and offensive production was way down from last year for the Nittany Lions.
LSU’s three losses came by a combined total of 21 points and those teams combined to have
just five losses on the season. LSU faced the toughest slate of rushing offenses in the nation
on its schedule and still had very solid defensive numbers so Penn State will be in for a tough
game on offense. Joe Paterno has an amazing bowl record but an even better Lions team
was whipped in the Rose Bowl last season and the Big Ten simply has not held up in recent
big bowl games. Penn State lobbied hard for a BCS spot that ultimately went to Iowa so this
team could be somewhat disappointed to be in this game. LSU does not have a lot of quality
wins and the offense struggled at times but this team did play tough against the best teams
they faced and there should be no lack of motivation for the disrespected Tigers team that has
great talent and plenty of time to come up with a great game plan. LSU BY 3

RATING 2: Lsu (+2½) over Penn State

Oregon (-3½) Ohio State (50½)
Each of the last three years Ohio State has been a BCS bowl disappointment although the
Buckeyes did play well and cover last season as a large underdog. There are many believers
back on the Buckeyes this season but there are some serious holes in the body of work for
this team. Ohio State only beat four teams that qualified for bowls this season and only the
road win over Penn State was in impressive fashion as the Buckeyes squeaked by Navy and
Iowa, and had a lot of good fortune against Wisconsin. Ohio State was actually dealt a very
easy Big Ten schedule as two bowl qualifiers were absent and having gone 9-3 ATS on the
year leaves Ohio State a bit overvalued in this game. The Buckeyes lost at home early this
season against a USC team from the Pac-10 that proved to be quite average and that was a
team that Oregon crushed 47-20. Playing on the west coast should be an advantage for the
Ducks and statistically on offense this is as impressive of team as can be found in the nation,
scoring nearly 38 points per game through one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Oregon also beat a Purdue team that Ohio State lost to and the other non-conference games
came against quality teams. Although Terrelle Pryor may be a bigger name at QB, Jeremiah
Masoli has been better in every area and Ohio State struggled in the games they played
where the opponent had an effective running game. Oregon averaged 236 yards per game on
the year and although Ohio State’s rush defense looks impressive on paper, the defense
struggled mightily against the best rushing teams faced, Navy, USC, and Wisconsin. While the
Ohio State coaching staff has more experience in these big games this is a great showcase
opportunity for Oregon in a rare year without USC in this game. Oregon was held below 31
points just twice this season and the Pac-10 proved to be the far superior conference this
season. Look for another big game disappointment from the Big Ten despite false renewed
optimism in many circles. Oregon’s defense is a bit suspect so the Buckeyes could get on the
board a few times and have a strong offensive showing, but it likely won’t be enough as a
higher scoring game will not favor their style of play. OREGON BY 10

RATING 2: Oregon (-3½) over Ohio State
RATING 1: ‘OVER’ (50½) Ohio State/Oregon

Florida (-11) Cincinnati (57)
The Gators were beaten badly in what was one of the worst losses ever for Coach Meyer in
the SEC championship. While a redemptive effort may be in order, having the perfect season
and repeat title dreams dashed so severely makes this a very tough situation. This is the
situation that Alabama was in last year and the Tide was crushed by Utah in the Sugar Bowl.
Florida is 2-0 in BCS Championship game but in a lesser bowl the Gators lost as a large
favorite against Michigan two years ago. This could be a similar situation as Cincinnati will be
excited to play for its own perfect season with a shot at a national powerhouse. Cincinnati’s
situation certainly has issues as well however as Coach Brian Kelly has accepted the Notre
Dame position and will not coach the team here. Florida is losing its defensive coordinator,
though he is staying on the staff through this game. Florida should have a huge speed
advantage in this match-up on defense and there will be great pressure on Cincinnati and the
explosive passing attack but the Bearcats have found ways to win and have been a good
team at making mid-game adjustments if needed. Cincinnati did close the season on a 0-4
ATS run and defense did not keep up in several games but this will be the first time that
Cincinnati has been an underdog since the first game of the season. While Florida ended up
with incredibly impressive numbers the final game loss certainly exposed some holes and the
schedule proved to be as easy at it comes in the SEC supplemented by a weak nonconference
slate. Coach Meyer is UC alumni so this game should have meaning for him but
this looks like a problematic situation to lay a lot of points even if fundamentally there are
several edges for the Gators. FLORIDA BY 9

RATING 1: Cincinnati (+11) over Florida

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

Both tms lobbied to play in this gm for their 1st ever meeting and this is NU’s 1st ever Outback Bowl. In fact this is just NU’s 3rd ever NY’s Day bowl and 1st S/’96’s Citrus when Tenn’s Peyton Manning shredded a Cats D led by current HC Fitzgerald in the final college gm for both. NU’s AD told the bowl committee that 18,000 NU alums live in FL plus there are numerous daily flights from Chicago and NU fans flocked to previous bowls. AU is the 1st SEC West tm to play in this bowl S/’96 and sold out their tickets plus (13,000). This is Aub’s 3rd trip to Tampa (but 1st S/’96) going 1-1 SU/ATS previously. AU is 4-3 SU/ATS since ’90 in bowls vs B10 tms and has won 5 of their L/6 bowls (4-2 ATS) with 8 of the L/10 decided by less than a TD. NU’s pressn goal was to win their 1st bowl gm since the ‘48 Rose Bowl (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS). Fitzgerald led NU to an OT loss (+12) to Mizzou in his bowl HC debut in the Alamo Bowl LY. This is Aub HC Chizik’s first bowl as a HC, but he grew up in the Clearwater area and coached HS in St Pete. NU went 4-1 ATS as an AD TY with 3 outright upsets while AU has gone 1-3 ATS on the road. NU played just 5 bowl tms going 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS) getting outscored 27-20 despite outgaining those foes 358-356 and pulling big upsets in their L/2. Aub is 3-5 SU (4-4 ATS) vs bowl tms TY being outscored 28-24 and outgained 397-353. NW has 8 Sr starters (13 upperclassmen) while Aub has just 7 Sr starters but 18 upperclassmen.

The Cats ended the ssn with a 3 gm Nov win streak knocking off 9-0 Iowa and ending Wisconsin’s BCS dreams. The Big Ten’s leading passer QB Kafka, a 5th yr senior, waited patiently for his 2nd chance to lead the Cats’ spread. The run gm was snakebitten due to inj’s with true frosh Fields leading the tm with just 294 yds. WR Markshausen came into the season with 1 career catch but the former walk-on blossomed along with big play WR ex-QB Brewer. The young OL (4 underclassmen starters) disappointed with Fitzgerald forcing linemen to win their jobs on a weekly basis. The rush numbers declined from 142 ypg (3.8) in ‘08 to 119 (3.1) while the sks all’d increased from 22 to 29 despite a more mobile QB. The D struggled with inj’s to the top playmakers. 2008 All-B10 DE Wootton was not 100% early on after LY’s knee surgery. When healthy Wootton had the tm’s biggest play of the ssn when he forced and rec’d a fmbl in the EZ for a TD vs Iowa. The top LB is Davie who led the tm in tfl. The secondary features 3 All-B10 performers in the L/2Y in CB McManis, S Phillips and S Smith yet all 3 missed time in ‘09 due to inj. Smith (thumb) is expected to play in the bowl after missing the 4 of L/6. NU is #54 in pass D. The ST’s are #87 with K/P Demos earning 2nd Tm All-B10 honors as a K but struggled as a P with the tm’s 31.7 net ranking #115 in the NCAA.

The Auburn faithful weren’t too excited when Chizik was hired, but after a 5-0 start and climbing to #17, the fans were sold. Reality came crashing down in their 3 gm losing streak when they were blasted by Ark, lost an embarrassing gm at home vs KY and then were pounded by LSU. They rebounded with a big win over Ole Miss but lost to their biggest rivals GA and Bama (though it was a nice showing vs Bama). One of Chizik’s best moves was hiring OC Malzahn from Tulsa who brought in his spread offense. Since ‘08’s disastrous try at installing the spread, fans were hungry to see some yards and pts TY and Malzahn provided both (#3 in SEC in scoring off and total off). Overall QB Todd was solid with a 21-6 ratio, but struggled during the tm’s losing streak avg only 144 ypg (52%) with a 1-1 ratio. RB Tate finally fulfilled his promise staying healthy all yr. At WR, Adams emerged as a big play threat finishing #4 in the SEC in rec ypg. The OL avg 6’5” 300 with 1 senior starter and only all’d 18 sks in 331 pass att (5.4%) while the tm avg 5.0 ypc rushing, their best ypc since ‘95. Overall Aub has our #11 off and #41 def. Aub’s 1st tm defense is solid, but there isn’t much in the way of bkups with the starters forced to play most of the snaps. AA DE Coleman leads the SEC in sks. AU is #36 in our pass D rankings, but lost solid FS Etheridge to a scary neck inj in the 9th gm and has no depth in the secondary. Aub is #91 in our ST rankings with PK Byrum and P Durst still solid despite breakdowns in coverage and poor returns.

Both are excited to be playing on a NYD bowl but we continue to be impressed with what Northwestern and Fitzgerald does with his squad. They excel in the role of an underdog and in the L/2Y have been a dog 13 times covering 10 and pulling the upset 8 times. There is no question that Auburn has more talented players but we also thought that Missouri was more talented than NU LY and in that game, NU lost a heart-breaker in OT. The Wildcats covered all 4 conf AG’s TY and they continue to play fundamentally sound ball which is a great characteristic for a defensive minded underdog.

FORECAST: NORTHWESTERN (+) Aub by 3 RATING: 2* NORTHWESTERN

This will be the final game of HC Bobby Bowden’s long and illustrious career. All the attention will be focused on Bowden who left WV in 1976 to go to Florida State. WV HC Stewart was a player for Bowden in his 1st year at WV in 1970. The Noles began their streak 28 straight bowl games (longest in the nation) in 1982 when they defeated WV 31-12 in the Gator Bowl. A loss here would give FSU their worst record since he arrived, a victory will give him 316 wins. FSU is 21-10-1 SU and 19-10-1 ATS in bowls under Bowden. FSU has played 7 bowl caliber teams (2-5 SU/ATS) being outgained 463-424 and outscored 35-31. FSU has met WV in the Gator twice and is 2-0 SU/ATS incl a 30-18 (-10) win in ‘05. West Virginia has played up/down to the level of their competition this year suffering losses vs Aub (5 int), USF (RB Devine inj) and a close one vs #5 Cincy in which they held one of nation’s top pass offenses to 221 yds and a ssn low 24 pts. They then upset #8 Pitt in the Backyard Brawl avenging losses the L/2Y. WV has played 8 bowl caliber teams (4-4 SU/ATS) outgaining them 372-343 and outscoring foes 25-23. HC Stewart is 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) in bowls. WV has 6 senior among 15 upperclassmen while FSU has 7 seniors among eleven. Both teams were upset by USF. #18 FSU was stunned at home17-7 while #20 WV lost on the road 30-19. FSU is 5-0-1 SU (4-0 ATS) and WV is 1-5 SU (0-5-1 ATS) in Gator Bowls. Mountaineer fans always travel well to the Gator Bowl but in Bowden’s final game, WV will be outnumbered as the game sold out in less than 24 hours after the matchup became official!!!

Starting QB Christian Ponder suffered a shldr inj vs Clemson and is out for the year. His replacement is rFr Manuel (PS#4). RB Thomas is the top rusher but has been held to just 65 total rush yds the L/2 gms. Owens and Reed are the top 2 WR’s. The OL avg 6’4” 286 opening holes for 4.6 ypc and all’d 20 sks (4.8%). The unit is anchored by one of the ACC’s top OL’s LG Rodney Hudson but he suffered a knee inj vs WF and missed the L/2 reg ssn gms (?? here). The Noles have our #30 offense and #79 defense. The D-line avg 6’3” 267 and is all’g 5.3 ypc rush (#108 NCAA w/203 ypg rush). The DL only has 6 of FSU’s 21 sks. The LB’s are the #1, #2 and #4 tklrs and the leader of the unit is 2nd Tm ACC Dekoda Watson. The secondary has also struggled and has our #104 pass eff D. The Noles are all’g 240 ypg pass (61%) with a 26-13 ratio. FSU has our #29 spec tms. FSU is avg 20.5 ypr KR and 16.8 on PR. They are allowing 21.4 ypr on KR and 8.0 on PR.

WV has our #49 offense avg 382 ypg and 27 ppg. This year Stewart once again tried to convert to a more balanced attack rather than relying on WV’s bread and butter run. The key to the season was keeping QB Brown and RB Devine healthy. Brown threw for 334 vs EC but had a meltdown (4 int) vs Aub, then suffered a concussion vs Marshall and wasn’t the same. RB Devine, WR/RB Sanders and Fr WR Austin are all playmakers with similar speed and size (5’8”). Devine was slowed in 3 with an ankle injury but should be 100% here. FB Clarke, who is 228 lbs but plays like 260, has 7 TD’s. WR’s Arnett (#2 rec) and Lyons (6’8”) are the deep weapons on the outside. The young OL (1 Sr) avg 6’4” 292 and is paving the way for 184 ypg (4.7) while all’g 19 sks (5.8%). WV plays a 3-3-5 defense and has our #26 ranking, all’g 21 ppg and 330 ypg. The DL avg 6’2” 283, all’g 118 rush ypg (3.6) with 18 of teams 29 sks. LY’s All-BE DT Berry was inj’d then suspended and missed 7 sts, but soph DE Miller (#1 tfl) emerged a presence up front. LB Williams returned after missing LY with injury, but was still hampered by injuries. Lazear stepped his game up and led the team in tkls. WV has our #26 pass eff D. The secondary is all’g 212 pass ypg (52%) with a 19-17 ratio. FS Sands led the BE in int with 5 and Hogan (former WR) has turned into a top cover corner. WV has our #48 ST’s rank, with the bright spots being P Kozlowski (39.1 net) and K Bitancurt (93 FG%). WV is avg 22.1 on KR and 9.6 on PR but allows 24.1 on KR (#101 NCAA) and 8.0 on PR.

The Gator Bowl Committee upset many ACC folks by grabbing Florida St but the bowls are a business and they showed they made the right move with tickets immediately selling out. Great sentiment here as Bowden started his career at WV and WV HC Stewart even played for him for a season. The Seminoles D has been thrashed this year but they’ve played one of the nation’s toughest schedules and now face a WV offense that over the L/5 gms has avg’d just 20 ppg. Look for new wrinkles from a talented Florida St offense as Bowden still enjoys the limelight and will have a few tricks up his sleeve.

FORECAST: FLORIDA ST by 7 RATING: 2* FLORIDA ST

The FBS’s all-time wins leader, Paterno, lobbied hard for a BCS bid, but instead will meet LSU for just the 2nd time ever (a 16-9 Lions win in the ‘73 Orange Bowl) marking the Lions 1st visit to the Capital One Bowl S/’03. Overall PSU is 1-3 SU/ATS in Orlando. LSU has played here once before losing to Iowa 30-25 (-6’) on a Hail Mary pass on the last play of the game in Saban’s final game as the Tigers HC. The outside perception is that the SEC has dominated this bowl, but LY’s Georgia win over MSU broke a 4 game B10 SU/ATS win streak. Paterno is the NCAA’s all time bowl winner with a 23-11-1 SU, 21-10-1 ATS record winning 6 of his L/8 SU and ATS vs SEC tms. Miles is no slouch either going 4-0 SU/ATS in the postseason at LSU winning by an avg of 36 ppg when the Tigers were a dog. The ex-Michigan man is 1-1 SU/ATS in bowls vs B10 tms (both vs OSU). PSU is 8-2 SU/ATS away from home the L/2Y while LSU is 6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS outside of Death Valley. Except for LY’s bowl PSU has been fav’d in every game the L/2Y going 14-10 ATS. LSU is 2-6 ATS as a dog the L/3Y. Both teams took on 6 bowl opps with PSU going 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS winning on avg 24-13 and outgaining those foes by 89 ypg while LSU was 3-3 SU/ATS winning by a 21-19 avg despite being outgained by 45 ypg. The Lions have 9 Sr starters and 15 upperclassmen. LSU has 10 Sr starters and 15 upperclassmen. LSU has sold their allotment of 13,000 tickets and PSU usually travels well also. Four of the tms’ combined 5 losses have come vs tms in BCS bowls.

It was a strange year in Baton Rouge as the Tigers offense never took off (#11 in SEC ttl off), but the improved defense headed up by new DC Chavis equalled a 9-3 record and the #3 bowl spot in the SEC. LSU was actually outgained on the year by an avg of 327-310 with the only other SEC tms outgained on the yr being UK and Vandy. OC Crowton played conservatively with soph QB Jefferson to avoid LY’s debacle with Lee throwing 7 pick 6’s. Despite having 2 big, strong RB’s in Scott and Williams, the running game was strangely stifled even before Scott and Williams went down with inj’s. Scott (brkn collarbone) and Williams are expected to miss the bowl. True frosh QB Shepard even filled in at RB, but Ridley is expected to start. With the conservative off, LSU’s receiving numbers were down even though LaFell and Toliver are some of the top WR’s in the SEC. The OL avg 6’4” 303 with 2 Sr starters, but underachieved this year. Black has started 52 consec gms at LT earning the Jacobs Blocking Trophy as the SEC’s OL of the Year but even he struggled at times TY. Overall LSU is #58 on offense and #12 on defense. Chavis’ defenses are usually led by the LB’s and TY the top 4 tklrs are LB’s. The sacks are down 8 from LY (28 in ‘08), but the points allowed dropped from 24.2 to just 16.0 TY. LSU’s spec tms rank #8 with solid K Jasper, excellent net punting and one of the fastest ret specialists in the country in Holliday.

QB Daryll Clark was the Big 10’s OPY in ‘08 but lost his top 3 targets who had combined for 466 career rec’s with the tm’s leading returning WR from ‘08 having just 174 yds. Clark also had a virtually new OL in front of him which had to replace 3 starters and moved the 2 returning starters to new positions. The OL struggled early on with RB Evan Royster rushing for 100 yds just once in the 1st 4, but he rebounded to finish #2 in the B10 in rushing. Clark started out hot as D’s overplayed the run, but struggled vs Iowa and OSU’s tough defenses. With a big 4 TD performance vs MSU he ended the season as the B10’s pass efficiency leader and set PSU’s single season records in passing yds and TD passes. Speedy soph WR Derek Moye led the team in rec’s. The Lions once again had 1 of the NCAA’s top D’s. PSU ranks in the NCAA’s top 10 in several def categories and is tied with Florida for allowing the NCAA’s fewest TD’s (15). The DL is anchored by the B10’s DPY, DT Odrick. Linebacker U once again lived up to its reputation with all 3 starters garnering All-B10 recognition despite Bowman and Lee missing several games due to inj’s. PSU is #22 in pass eff D, but the all new secondary played very few true passing offenses (none in NCAA’s Top 25). PSU’s special teams were some of the worst in Joe Pa’s distinguished career finishing #100 with K Wagner hitting just 1-6 from 35+ and huge gaffes contributing substantially in losses to Iowa and OSU.

If you check the body of work this year, you will find very few quality Tiger wins. In fact, they’ve been outgained by 17 ypg this year while being the only team that ranks in the bottom 13 of offensive ypg to have a winning record. Penn St lobbied for a BCS bid but if any coach will motivate his squad, it will be the Hall of Famer Paterno. While the Lions are favored, there is no question the Big 10 still is perceived as an inferior conference to the SEC especially speed-wise which adds a final motivating factor.

FORECAST: PENN ST by 10 RATING: 3* PENN ST

The Bucks are 7-0 vs the Ducks (L/’87) incl a 10-7 Rose Bowl victory back in ‘57. This is OSU’s 14th trip to “The Granddaddy of Them All” with their last trip coming after the ‘96 ssn (6 B10 titles ago!). The Ducks also haven’t been to Pasadena for postssn play S/’94 (haven’t won here S/’17) and will be making their 5th visit to the Rose Bowl. Both fan bases are excited for this game after long Rose Bowl droughts and snapped up their ticket allotments. OSU HC Tressel is 4-4 SU (5-3 ATS) all-time in bowls but has dropped 4 of his L/5 (all BCS bowls). For Oregon, Kelly is in his 1st yr as the Ducks HC but was the OC the L2Y when he recruited OSU’s Pryor. The Bucks have 6 Sr starters among 17 upperclassmen while UO has just 4 Sr starters with 15 upperclassmen. OSU went 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) on the road TY while the Ducks went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) including beating UCLA at the Rose Bowl. The Bucks have plyd 6 bowl eligible tms going 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) with 28-16 scoring and 333-302 yd edges. UO has gone 6-2 SU (4-4 ATS) vs bowl eligible tms with 34-25 scoring and 427-343 yd edges. Both have faced USC and Purdue in ‘09 but with very different results as the Bucks dropped both meetings (1-1 ATS) being outscored by a 22-17 margin and outgained 337-276 while UO was victorious in their meetings (1-1 ATS) with 43-28 scoring and 485-389 yd edges.

OSU won its 5th straight B10 title, but it wasn’t easy. The B10’s pressn Off POY QB Terrelle Pryor never quite lived up to the hype in ‘09 and the low point came when he turned the ball over 4x in a loss at Purdue. In the aftermath Pryor’s HS coach called him ‘robotic’ in Tressel’s offense and wondered whether he should’ve gone elsewhere. In the L/5 Pryor’s pass att’s fell as the zone read option became the bread and butter. The team avg 258 rush ypg (5.1) vs 149 ypg (4.0) in the 1st 7 and OSU led the conf in rushing in league gms, despite rarely having the RB tandem of Saine and Herron healthy. Pryor became the 1st OSU QB to lead the tm in rushing since Les Horvath in ‘44 and he had just 1 int in the L/4. Posey was PS#4WR out of HS with Julio Jones, AJ Green and Mike Floyd being PS#1, 2 and 3. In his 1st full-time season he actually led those highly acclaimed WR’s in rec’s. Due to injuries the OL started 6 lineups with only C Brewster and OG Browning starting all 12. DC Heacock called the DL his best S/‘03 and they lived up to the billing leading the league in rush D (83, 2.7) and going 9-10 players deep including All-Big 10 performers DE’s Heyward and Gibson. LB’s Homan and Rolle were the team’s top 2 tacklers. All-Big 10 S Coleman is the D’s heart and soul and he finished the season with 2 int vs Mich. OSU is #14 in pass eff D with 23 int (#2 NCAA). The ST’s finished #33 as the B10’s leading scorer K Pettrey was KO’d for the season vs NM St which forced ex-MLS soccer player Barclay into the limelight when he booted the Rose Bowl clinching FG in OT vs Iowa.

After a dismal off performance at Boise (8 pts, 6 FD’s, 273 ttl yds), the Ducks rattled off 7 consec wins (6-1 ATS) incl 524 and 613 yds vs Cal and USC. For the ssn, the UO off finished with our #8 rating avg 38 ppg and 425 ypg. 1st Tm P10 QB Masoli is arguably the most dangerous player in the conf with his zone read ability. In his 11 sts (out vs UCLA), Masoli avg 248 ttl ypg (27 ttl TD). The running gm looked to be a concern after RB Blount was susp, but rFr James (6.9 ypc) emerged and surpassed the P10 frosh rushing record for a ssn. Blount returned in the finale (51 yds, TD) and will be James’ primary bkup here. WR Maehl and TE Dickson (Mackey semifinalist) were key in the pass game as both have topped the 500 yd plateau on the yr. The OL avg 6’5” 296 (97% of sts) paving the way for 5.5 while all’g just 12 sks (3.8%). The UO def is ranked #25, all’g 24 ppg and 329 ypg incl holding 5 tms under 300 ttl yds (3 bowl tms). The DL avg 6’5” 261 (2 Sr) all’g 3.4 ypc and had 20 (63%) of the tm’s 32 sks and started all 48 gms. The LB unit is led by Matthews and Paysinger who tied for 3rd on the tm w/72 tkls. The secondary all’d 203 ypg (55%) w/a 16-13 ratio finishing with our #19 pass def despite key inj to All-P10 CB Thurmond (OFY) and ROV Ward (out 5 gms). With their absences, Boyett and Lewis stepped up (#1 and #2 tklrs) to fill their roles. UO has our #23 ranked ST unit led by KR Barner (24.3, 1 TD) and the solid foot of K Flint (15-17 FG’s).

Exciting and interesting matchup with the Ducks diverse offense against the Buckeyes defense. Large edge to Tressel and OSU preparing for a 5th straight BCS game but first Rose Bowl since 1996. Oregon, meanwhile, has not played in a BCS game since the Fiesta Bowl in ‘01 and has not played in the Rose Bowl since 1994. In the last 5 bowls that Ohio St’s been a dog, they’ve covered 4 and won 3 of them outright, incl the National Championship win in 2002.

FORECAST: OHIO ST by 7 RATING: 3* OHIO ST

David vs Goliath. These two tms meet for the 1st time S/’84, a 48-17 UC loss. The matchup features 2 high powered off’s but Cincy will now be with an interim/new HC. Meyer looks to defeat his alma mater and spoil UC’s 1st undefeated season in schl history. Both tms had a shot at the title game as UC is off a comeback victory over Pitt in which they trailed by 21 pts and had Neb held on they could have been playing Bama. UF is off a disappointing 32-13 loss to Bama in the SEC Champ. This is UC’s 2nd str BCS bowl, losing LY to VT in the Orange Bowl 20-7. Kelly is 2-1 in bowls here but 0-3 ATS. UF is off their 2nd Nat’l Title under Meyer with a 24-14 (-6) win LY over Okla. The Gators will be playing in the postssn for a 19th consec yr (37th overall) and Meyer is 5-1 SU/ATS (3-1 w/UF). UC played 7 bowl tms (8-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) TY outscoring them 36-26 and outgaining them 464-383. UF has played 9 bowl tms (5-4 ATS) outscoring them 30-14 and outgaining them 421-260. UC is 9-4 ATS as a dog the L/3Y and UF was 16-3 ATS as fav but just 6-7 TY. UC has 10 Sr starters among 14 upperclassmen (5 underclassmen on D) while UF has just 6 Sr starters along with an outstanding Jr class holding 11 starting jobs. UC fans are notoriously poor travelers which forced them into the final pick of the BCS bowls, so the adv favors UF with the shorter trip and major bowl exp. This will be UC’s 1st Sugar Bowl while it is Florida’s 8th appearance here.

UC has our #10 off avg 39.8 ppg and 464 ypg. HC Kelly led UC to its 1st 12-0 record in schl hist and showed he could do it without Pike at QB who was mentioned in the early running for the Heisman. Pike re-inj’d the same arm that limited him LY and missed 4 sts before returning to throw for a schl rec’d 6 TD vs Illinois. Kelly did have Pike available in 3 of those 4 gms, but soph Collaros was playing at such a high level, he was hard to replace. Kelly actually said it was a good problem to have two #1 QB’s. The quick tempo off is dead last in the NCAA avg only 25:30 TOP per gm. RB Pead and Ramsey (missed most of 3) provide the often overlooked run game, that can be a challenge for defenses as seen by Pead’s 175 yds vs a stout WV run D. AA WR Gilyard (#2 all-purp) is the star of the show and gets much of the attention, giving opportunities to WR Binns, Woods and TE Guidugli. The OL avg 6’4” 291 (2 Sr) paving the way for 144 ypg (5.1) all’g 11 sks. Cincy’s #54 D ret’d just 1 st’r from LY but all’d just 350 ypg and 20.8 ppg. Cincy switched to the 3-4 TY under new DC Diaco and the DL avg 6’4” 285 all’g 141 rush ypg (3.5) with 21 of the tm’s 35 sks. The secondary is all’g 209 ypg (62%) with a 13-16 ratio led by rFr Frey with 4 int. UC has our #9 ST’s led by one of the nation’s most electrifying playmakers in Gilyard, who has 2 KR TD’s and 1 PR TD. Jake Rogers handled all 3 kicking duties and has 22 TB on 87 KO’s.

Not many tms would be disappointed to go to the Sugar Bowl, but UF is. They were hoping to play for their 3rd BCS Title in 4Y, but ran into a more motivated Bama tm in the SEC Title gm and wound up here. The loss to Bama halted UF’s school record 22 gm win streak. Tebow still is one of the top QB’s in the nation, but his stats are down TY due to some weaknesses in the OL and inexperienced WR’s. UF is still #5 in our off rankings, but the OL has allowed 26 sks TY (16 more than LY, 10th in the SEC). The OL starters avg 6’6” 313 with 0 Sr starters. Mackey Winner Hernandez and WR Cooper had excellent seasons, but there was a lack of depth behind them. The RB’s were nicked up at times and Tebow finished as the tm’s top rusher for a 3rd str yr even though Demps and Rainey both have sub 4.4 spd. UF ranks #4 in our D rankings and was #1 almost all yr until a total meltdown vs Bama in which they all’d 32 pts and 490 yds, the 2nd worst in the Meyer era at UF. DE Dunlap (T-#1 sk) was susp for the Title gm after an arrest, but could return for the bowl. The DL avg 6’3” 287 with 1 Sr starter. MLB Spikes is still an AA but had a rough yr after the eye-gouging incident vs UGA. The secondary features AA Jr CB Joe Haden who is exp to leave early for the NFL. UF ranks #6 in our pass D rankings all’g 152 ypg (52%) with a 7-20 ratio.

Last yr Alabama lost the SEC Title and fell flat in the Sugar Bowl against a motivated Utah tm, and now UF is in the same position but there’s no greater leader and motivator than Tim Tebow. UF DC Strong who was hired as the HC of Louisville will return to Florida to coach the bowl. We expect him to get the D back to their high standards despite the lingering disappointment. UC has not seen this type of pressure that the Gators’ front-7 presents and Florida’s speed advantage will be obvious here.

FORECAST: FLORIDA by 23 RATING: 4*FLORIDA

NC POWERPLAYS

PP says Auburn will win by 16 (line 7’) with a 453-342 yd edge. NW is 10-3 as a dog with 8
outright upsets in the L2Y under HC Fitzgerald, so we don’t want to go against that streak.
NO PLAY: AUBURN 36 NORTHWESTERN 20

WV comes in as a 3 pt fave over Bobby Bowden in his fi nal game. PP predicts an outright upset
by FSU with a 442-408 yd edge. We’ll go big on this one as long as FSU is a dog because we know
the players will want to send Bobby out a winner.
4.5★ FLORIDA ST (if a dog) 29 WEST VIRGINIA 27

PP says this will be a tight, low-scoring bowl with PSU pulling out a 3 pt win (line 2’) but allowing
just 252 yds to LSU while gaining 358. With 2 strong D’s and erratic offenses the Under looks like
the best bet.
3★ UNDER 44 LSU/PENN ST

PP says Oregon will pull out a 1 pt win over Ohio St with the ydg forecast almost dead even. We
like OSU +3’ as the Bucks are 4-1 ATS with 3 outright upsets the last 5 bowls as a dog.
3★ OHIO ST (+) 25 OREGON 26

Cincy will of course be without their HC and the Gators have a defense that will slow them down.
PP is calling for Florida to fi nish with a 456-319 yd edge but with only a 10 pt forecast, we’ll pass.
NO PLAY: FLORIDA 33 CINCINNATI 23

PLAYBOOK

Auburn over Northwestern by 3
The 8-4 Wildcats enter this contest with three SU underdog wins.
While that’s certainly the reason they’re playing on New Year’s day, our
database tells us that this is most likely the reason they won’t earn an
Outback Bowl win: bowlers off three SU underdog wins are an unlucky
0-13 SU. While we question their chances for the outright win, we’ll
gladly provide the answers for a pointspread cover. For starters, Big
10 bowlers are a bloomin’ 6-1 ATS versus SEC foes off back-to-back SU
losses. That ties in nicely with the SEC’s 1-10 ATS mark as favorites off
back-to-back SU losses. Auburn also goes down under as a bowl favorite
or dog of seven or less points versus an opponent off a win, posting a
putrid 1-11 ATS record in this role. While Gene Chizik looks to have the
Tigers heading in the right direction, let’s not forget 1st-year coaches
are just 6-16 ATS as bowlers off a SU loss. Aubbie’s 4-1 SU and ATS mark
as bowlers after facing Alabama tempers our enthusiasm a bit but the
seven points, like the ‘Chocolate Thunder from Down Under,’ is just too
good to pass up.

5* BEST BET
Florida St over West Virginia by 13
This is the second straight year that the Gator Bowl will be welcoming
a 6-6 team to Jacksonville. However, last year’s Clemson bunch didn’t
garner one one-hundredth the amount of attention that FSU will
command this year. This is last game of Bobby Bowden’s illustrious
44-year career and this could be the biggest sendoff since Johnny
Carson left the airways. Gator Bowl offi cials sure did it right as
the West Virginia Mountaineers, Bowden’s only other Division 1-A
coaching job, provide today’s opposition. Bowden had only one
losing season in his 6-year stint in Morgantown and has had only
one losing campaign in his 34 years at Tallahassee. It sure seems
like this 5* Best Bet is a bit sentimental but we have plenty of “dad
gum” ammo to back it up. For openers, the ACC has dominated the
Big East in bowl play with a 13-3 ATS mark, including a perfect 5-0
ATS off a SU loss. In addition, ACC bowl dogs are a very profi table
35-18-2 ATS, including a juicy 11-0 ATS off a loss in their last 11
games. And ol’ Bobby himself rarely misses wide right entering a
bowl game off a loss, posting a brilliant 10-1-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS
mark. In fact, the amiable Bowden doesn’t take kindly to losing
at all, registering a solid 56-18 SU and 50-28-2 ATS mark in games
off a loss. West Virginia’s Bill Stewart has done an admirable job
since taking over the reins from Rich Rodriguez. However, besides
contending with a fi red-up FSU bunch looking to send Bobby out a
winner, he must deal with our INCREDIBLE STAT on page two. He
must also deal with the fact that Big East bowlers are just 1-8 ATS
versus an opponent off a SU loss. Stewart, to his credit, has handled
sub .700 foes on the SU scoreboard, carding a 13-0 record, but he’s
just 3-8 on the ATS scorecard. Keep this thought in mind as you’re
recovering from last night’s hangover: the Hillbillies have allowed
an average of 35.4 PPG in their last ten bowl games. WVU’s record
as favorites in games in which they allow more than 30 points? Try
1-18 ATS! Look for Bobby to improve on his 20-9-1 SU and 19-10-1
ATS mark as a bowler with the Seminoles and, fi ttingly, leave with
another win. What else would you expect from one of the best “dadgum”
coaches in college football history?

Penn St over Lsu by 1
We don’t fi nd it ironic that Joe Paterno and Bobby Bowden are playing
on New Year’s Day as both are ‘aulder’ than Lang Syne. It is rather ironic,
however, that they’re battling for TV time as the Capital One Bowl also
kicks off at 1:00 PM. While this may be the most attractive of the non-BCS
bowls, it is arguably the most diffi cult to handicap. Both teams arrive in
Orlando with some gaudy ATS numbers. The Tigers are 18-5-1 as dogs off
an ATS loss and a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS as bowlers under Les Miles. In
fact, Miles has dominated non-conference opponents in his fi ve years in
the Bayou, owning a 22-0 SU and 14-6 ATS mark. The Nittany Lions are
18-8 SU and 17-9 ATS as bowlers since 1977 and a healthy 6-2 SU and ATS
versus the SEC since 1990. See our dilemma? We can point to the fact that
Capital One Bowl favorites are just 1-4 SU and ATS over the last fi ve years
and that SEC bowl dogs are 9-1 ATS versus an opponent of a loss. However,
our College Bowl Stat Report reminds us that Penn State is 11-1 ‘In The
Stats’ this season while the Bengals have been outgained in each of their
last four contests. Normally, we would jump all over the reasonably priced
team who dominates the yardage battle but the Lions’ 0-2 SU and ATS
mark versus .750 or greater opposition will likely keep the remote in our
hands as we root in Bobby Bo.

Ohio St over Oregon by 3
While the 96th Rose Bowl won’t decide a national champion, the
“granddaddy of them all” will mark the fi rst appearance of the Buckeyes in
Pasadena since their 1997 win over Arizona State. The Buckeyes may have
not ventured to Jan & Dean’s turf in 12 years but they have been plenty
busy on the BCS highway. Jim Tressel’s boys are making their 5th straight
trip to a BCS bowl game while the Ducks are BCS-quacking for the fi rst time
since the 2001 Fiesta Bowl. Oregon has also been rather ‘web-footed’ in
this series, dropping all seven on the SU scoreboard, and we don’t see that
changing this afternoon. Despite three straight bowl losses, Jim Tressel’s
Buckeyes have more than held their own against college football’s elite.
They are a solid 25-7 SU in their last 32 games versus fellow bowlers and
a dominating 28-9 ‘In The Stats’ versus bowlers over the last fi ve years. In
fact, they’re the only team to outgain the Nittany Lions this season. If you
like defensive dogs, then you’ve come to the right place as the Buckeyes
have allowed almost half as many points (146 to 283) as Chip Kelly’s Ducks.
The 1st-year HC has done a terrifi c job in guiding the Ducks to their fi rst
Rose Bowl appearance since 1995, rebounding from a season-opening loss
to Boise State and the suspension of star RB LeGarrett Blount. However,
our database informs us that 1st-year coaches are just 4-12 ATS as bowlers
versus an opponent that won 10 or more games last season – and also
reminds us that Oregon is just 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS as favorites after their
annual ‘Civil War’ with Oregon State. It’s been 92 years since the men from
Eugene sniffed the Roses. It’s a good thing ‘Ducks’ don’t have a sense of
smell as they won’t get a sniff this year, either. We’ll look for bowl pedigree
to win out and history to repeat as Ohio State enjoys its 8th straight course
of roast duck.

Florida over Cincinnati by 13
Brian Kelly must be a big fan of Steve Miller. For the second time in four
years he jumped ship before his team’s bowl game and “took the money
and ran.” We can understand leaving a 9-4 Central Michigan squad in
2006 but walking away from an undefeated team that is ranked No. 3
in the country? That begs the question: If the Bearcats were playing for
the national championship, would he have told the Golden Domers to
wait until January 8th? If not, he should have his head examined. As it
is, how many chances do you get to go undefeated? We’re disappointed
in Kelly’s decision not to wait but that has no bearing on our decision
to back the Gators in Tim Tebow’s fi nal sendoff. Ironically, the Bearcats
are in good hands as OC Jeff Quinn will once again assume the interim
duties. Quinn led the Chippewas to a Motor City Bowl win after Kelly’s
departure in 2006 and will be shuffl ing off to Buffalo at the conclusion
of this game to take over the Bulls program. Make no mistake, however
– Quinn is no Urban Meyer, who boasts a spectacular 28-4-1 ATS log
outside of his conference, including 5-0-1 ATS versus undefeated foes.
Meyer is also a ridiculous 9-1 ATS when his opponent’s win percentage
is greater than his, including 7-0 ATS with the Gators. In addition,
Meyer is not intimidated at all by unbeaten opposition, posting a rock
solid 12-4 SU and 11-3-2 ATS log. (Editor’s Note: Meyer will coach the
Gators in this bowl before taking a “leave of absence” after the game).
Couple that with Cincy’s putrid 1-6 ATS mark as bowlers this decade
and the Big East’s 4-12 ATS record as dogs of more than six points and
you can start to see our reasoning. If the numbers aren’t enough, our
gut feeling here is the senior-laden Gators (18 returning starters) will
look to send Tebow off the winner that he is and make amends for
Alabama’s gaffe in last year’s Sugar Bowl. Oh yea, there’s also that 11th
Commandment thing that says: thou shalt not mess with Tim Tebow in
his fi nal NCAA game!

John Martin

1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +8.5

The Timberwolves have been on a great run against the spread, and that's because their lines are inflated due to their 7-26 record this season. This line has been inflated once again Friday as they host the Orlando Magic. Minnesota is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall, even though they have won only 6 of those 17 contests. The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog. The Timberwolves are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. loss. Cash in with Minnesota as the underdog.

Info Plays

3* on New York Knicks +11.5

Reasons why the Knicks cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (ATLANTA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This is a 147-83 ATS System hitting 63.9% since 1996.

2.) The Knicks are playing their best basketball over the last month, going 8-5 since December 4th. The Hawks are coming off back-to-back losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Atlanta measures themselves by how they play against the best in the East, because they want to be up there with the likes of Cleveland. Atlanta will suffer an emotional letdown here after two crushing losses to the Cavaliers in the last 3 days. They won't get up for the Knicks, and New York keeps this one close. Bet the Knicks on the road.

Black Widow

1* on Missouri State -5.5

Missouri State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody is talking about. This team is 11-1 this season, with their only loss coming at Arkansas by 4 points. Illinois State is 10-2 this season, but their soft schedule has been the result. Their two losses came by 8 points at home against Niagara, and by 18 points on the road at Ohio. Those two losses show that Illinois State is not nearly as good as their record indicates, having only played 3 true road games this season. Missouri State is 7-0 at home, winning by 15.0 points/game. So not only are they winning, but they are crushing their opponents on their home floor. This is a statement game for Missouri State to show that they are the team to beat in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. Illinois State is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. Illinois State is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take Missouri State and lay the points.

Ryno

Northwestern Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers

Often times, when a matchup arises between two teams that both could easily win the game, bowl games come down to which team is more excited to be there and wants it more. In this case, either team has the ability to win this game. But Northwestern ended its season with three straight wins and hasn't won a bowl game in 61 years. The Wildcats will be fired up to put on a good performance and try to get a victory. Auburn may still be disappointed from the poor end to its season and how close it came to upsetting Alabama in the last game. Getting more than a touchdown is sufficient for a Northwestern team that will fight hard to keep it close. Take Northwestern at +7.5 to cover the spread.

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

OUTBACK BOWL
(at Tampa, Fla.)

Northwestern (8-4, 5-6 ATS) vs. Auburn (7-5, 6-5 ATS)

Northwestern makes its third-ever New Year’s Day bowl appearance and first since 1996 when it tackles the Tigers at Raymond James Stadium.

The Wildcats closed the regular season with three straight outright upsets, beginning with a 17-10 victory of then-unbeaten Iowa as a 14-point underdog and ending with a 33-31 home win over Wisconsin as a seven-point pup on Nov. 21. All three victories came by a total of 14 points, and all seven of Northwestern’s Division I-A victories were decided by a total of 34 points, with an average margin of victory of 4.9 points.

Contrary to the Wildcats, Auburn started strong, ripping off five straight wins (4-1) to begin the season, then stumbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven, going 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) against Division I-A opponents (all SEC foes). The Tigers ended the regular season with two narrow losses to Georgia (31-24 as a four-point road underdog) and archrival Alabama (26-21 as a 10-point home ‘dog). Against the then-second-ranked Crimson Tide, Auburn jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead and finished with a 332-291 yardage edge (151-73 on the ground), but gave up the game-deciding touchdown with 1:24 left.

The Wildcats have lost six straight bowls (2-4 ATS) since winning the 1948 Rose Bowl. Last year, they fell to Nebraska 30-23 in the Alamo Bowl, but covered as a 12-point underdog. The Tigers, who missed out on the postseason last year, have won five of their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS), and they’re 4-3 SU and ATS against Big Ten opponents in bowls. Overall, eight of Auburn’s last 10 postseason contests have been decided by seven points or less, including a 23-20 overtime upset victory over Clemson as a 2½-point pup in the 2007 Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Northwestern puts up 25.2 points and 386 yards per game, including 266 passing ypg, as QB Mike Kafka battled through injuries to complete 65.7 percent of his throws for 2,898 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs, along with 265 rushing yards and seven additional scores. The defense surrenders 23.3 points and 344.2 ypg (123.5 rushing ypg).

Auburn averaged a tick under 33 ppg while piling up 432.3 ypg, with a balanced attack of rushing (213.8 ypg, 5.0 yards per carry) and passing (218.5 ypg), as QB Chris Todd (2,377 passing yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs) enjoyed a solid season. However, the Tigers struggled defensively, giving up 27 points and 353.5 total ypg (161.7 rushing ypg), surrendering 26 points or more in seven of the last 10 contests.

Northwestern has cashed in 10 of its last 13 as an underdog (including eight outright upsets) and 21 of 27 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points, but on the downside, the Wildcats are in ATS ruts of 1-5 in non-conference play, 16-34-1 after a SU victory and 4-9 following a spread-cover. Auburn’s ATS trends are all negative, including 2-4 overall, 0-3 as a favorite, 2-7 after a SU loss and 2-4 after a spread-cover.

The Wildcats carry “under” trends of 4-1 in non-conference play, 7-2 as an underdog and 4-1 as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points, and Auburn is on “under” runs of 7-0 in bowl games, 4-0 when favored in a bowl, 4-0 at neutral sites, 4-0 in January and 4-1-1 when coming off a defeat.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN and UNDER

GATOR BOWL
(at Jacksonville, Fla.)

Florida State (6-6, 3-8 ATS) vs. (18) West Virginia (9-3, 5-6 ATS)

Legendary coach Bobby Bowden will roam the Florida State sidelines for the final time when he leads the Seminoles into Municipal Stadium against West Virginia, the team for which Bowden once coached.

Bowden, who left West Virginia for Florida State in 1976 and is the second-winningest coach in Division I-A history with 315 victories, announced his retirement Nov. 30, two days after his team got blown out 37-10 at Florida as a 25½-point road underdog. The Seminoles were outgained by a whopping 545-281 margin at Florida, the fourth straight game in which they were out-yarded. Florida State did close the ACC campaign by winning four of its final five games, but went just 2-7 ATS in its last nine regular-season contests.

The Mountaineers closed the campaign with a trio of three-point games against Cincinnati (24-21 road loss), Pitt (19-16 home win) and Rutgers (24-21 road win). West Virginia covered the spread in all three games, a moneymaking run that came on the heels of an 0-4 ATS slide.

This is a rematch of the 2005 Gator Bowl (2004 season), a game Florida State won 30-18 as a 10-point favorite. In fact, the Seminoles’ NCAA-best 28 consecutive bowl appearances began in the 1982 Gator Bowl with a 31-12 victory over the Mountaineers. FSU is 21-10 SU and 19-10-1 ATS in bowl games under Bowden, including a 42-13 rout of Wisconsin as a six-point favorite in last year’s Champs Sports Bowl.

Since losing to Florida State in the Gator Bowl four years ago, West Virginia has won four straight bowl games (2-2 ATS, with the ‘dog covering in all four). Last year in the Meineke Bowl, it edged North Carolina 31-30 as a two-point favorite. However, the Mountaineers are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS all time in the Gator Bowl.

Prior to getting shut down by Florida, the Seminoles had scored 24 points or more in six straight games, averaging 35.5 ppg. However, the defense has been the weak link all year, giving up nearly 31 points and 444.3 yards per game (203.2 rushing ypg). Take away two home games against instate foes (17-7 loss to South Florida; 19-9 non-lined win over Jacksonville State), and Florida State surrendered an average of 34.3 points in its other 10 contests, yielding 37 points or more five times.

West Virginia tallied between 30 and 35 points in each of its first five games, but was held to 24 points or less in its final seven contests. However, the defense was solid all year, holding 10 of 12 opponents to 24 points or less. For the season, the Mountaineers averaged 26.6 points and 381.6 total yards per game (183.5 rushing ypg) and gave up 20.8 points and 330 yards per contest (118.4 rushing ypg).

The ‘Noles failed to cash in four of their last five overall and five of their last six against winning teams, but they’re also on positive pointspread rolls of 4-0-1 in bowl games, 7-0-1 at neutral sites, 8-3-1 after a SU loss, 3-0-1 as a neutral-site underdog and 3-0-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less. The Mountaineers’ 3-0 ATS run to end the regular season is offset by pointspread dips of 1-4 in non-conference games, 3-11 against the ACC, 1-4 as a favorite, 2-5 in bowl games and 4-14 when coming off a spread-cover.

The under is 6-2 in FSU’s last eight games against Big East competition, but otherwise the Seminoles are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 5-2 in non-conference play, 5-0 in bowl games, 8-1 as an underdog, 7-1 in neutral venues, 4-0 as a neutral-site ‘dog and 19-7 after a SU loss. Similarly, West Virginia carries “over” trends of 5-0 in bowl games, 4-0 in January, 5-1 in non-league contests and 6-1 against ACC foes. Finally, the 2005 Gator Bowl battle between these schools snuck over the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
(at Orlando, Fla.)

(13) LSU (9-3, 5-7 ATS) vs. (11) Penn State (10-2, 5-6 ATS)

LSU shoots for its fifth straight double-digit bowl victory when it travels to Citrus Bowl Stadium to battle the Nittany Lions, who are playing in a January bowl game for the fourth time in the last five years.

The Tigers alternated wins and losses over their final five regular-season games, capped by a 33-30 overtime victory over SEC rival Arkansas on Nov. 28, falling just short as a 3½-point home favorite. LSU won despite getting outgained 375-326 as it bounced back from a heartbreaking 25-23 loss at Ole Miss the previous week. Les Miles’ squad started out 5-0 (2-3 ATS), then went 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS down the stretch.

Penn State’s Rose Bowl hopes died with a 24-7 home loss to Ohio State as a 5½-point favorite on Nov. 7, but the Nittany Lions rebounded with a pair of wins to close the regular season, topping Indiana 31-20 as a 24-point home favorite and routing Michigan State 42-14 as a three-point road chalk. Joe Paterno’s two losses came against two Big Ten foes (Iowa and Ohio State) that are playing in BCS Bowl games.

This is only the second meeting between these college football powerhouses, the first coming in the 1973 Orange Bowl, which Penn State won 16-9.

The Tigers have destroyed their last four bowl opponents by a combined score of 157-44, cashing in all four games, including last year’s 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech as a 4½-point underdog in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Penn State lost to USC 38-24 as a 10-point underdog in last year’s Rose Bowl, ending a three-game postseason winning streak (2-1 ATS). Lions coach Joe Paterno not only has the most wins of any coach in Division I-A history, but he has the most bowl victories, too, going 23-11-1 SU and 21-10-1 ATS. He’s also 6-2 SU and ATS in his last eight postseason games against SEC competition.

The Big Ten had won and covered four straight Capital One Bowls against the SEC prior to Georgia’s 24-12 rout of Michigan State last year.

LSU scored 30 points or more five times this year and averages 25.5 points per game, but just 309.8 total yards per game (180 passing ypg). Defense carried the Tigers all year, though, holding seven of 12 opponents to 16 points or less and surrendering just 16 points and 326.2 total yards per outing. However, after giving up 293 ypg in starting out 7-1, LSU yielded an average of 393.8 ypg in its last four (2-2 SU).

Penn State outscored its opponents by nearly 18 ppg (29.7-11.8) and outgained them by 135.4 yards per game (412.5-277.1). The Lions grinded out 173.6 rushing ypg (4.9 ypc) and held opposing ground attacks to 94 ypg (2.9 ypc). Defensively, they rank fourth nationally in points allowed, eighth in total yards allowed and 10th against the run.

In addition to their 4-0 ATS run in bowl games, the Tigers are on pointspread upticks of 15-6 in non-conference action, 4-1 as a bowl underdog and 4-1 after a non-cover. Conversely, LSU carries negative ATS trends of 6-13 overall, 4-9 after a SU win, 8-20 on grass and 1-4-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less.

Penn State has failed to cash in four straight non-conference contests, but otherwise is on positive ATS runs of 5-2 overall (all as a favorite), 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a SU victory.

The over is 4-0 in LSU’s last four Big Ten contests and its last four Friday outings, but the Tigers are also on “under” runs of 4-1 in non-conference play and 5-2 as a ‘dog of three points or less. It’s all “unders” for Penn State, including 5-2 in bowl games, 8-3 as a chalk, 4-1 as a favorite in the postseason, 5-2 in January, 4-1 in non-conference play and 4-0 against SEC opponents.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

ROSE BOWL
(at Pasadena, Calif.)

(8) Ohio State (10-2, 8-4 ATS) vs. (7) Oregon (10-2, 7-5 ATS)

Ohio State returns to the Rose Bowl for the 14th time, but just the first since the 1996 season, while the Ducks are back in the “Granddaddy of Them All” for the first time since 1994 in the annual Pac-10/Big Ten clash from Pasadena.

The Buckeyes reeled off five straight victories (3-2 ATS) to finish the regular season, including a 24-7 upset win over 11th-ranked Penn State as a 5½-point road underdog followed the next week by a 27-24 victory over 15th-ranked Iowa as a 16½-point home chalk. Ohio State then secured its fifth straight BCS Bowl appearance by knocking off archrival Michigan 21-10 in the regular-season finale on Nov. 21, falling just short of covering as an 11-point road favorite.

Oregon began the year ranked 16th in the country but suffered an ugly 19-8 loss at Boise State in new coach Chip Kelly’s first game. In that defeat, the Ducks fell as a 3½-point road underdog, got outgained 361-152 and lost star RB LeGarrette Blount to a long suspension after Blount sucker-punched a Boise State player after the game. Kelly rallied his troops from there, though, as the Ducks won their next seven in a row (6-1 ATS) and 10 of 11 (7-3 ATS). In a winner-take-all showdown for the Pac-10 title against archrival Oregon State on Dec. 3, Oregon rallied for a 37-33 victory, failing to cash as a 9½-point home favorite but clinching just the fifth Rose Bowl berth in school history.

Ohio State has won all seven meetings against Oregon, but the last came way back in 1987. These teams also met in the 1957 Rose Bowl, which the Buckeyes won 10-7.

Under coach Jim Tressel, Ohio State is 4-4 SU (5-3 ATS) in the postseason, but it has lost four of its last five bowls, all of them BCS contests. Last year, the Buckeyes played Texas tough in the Fiesta Bowl, but gave up a TD with 16 seconds left to fall 24-21 as an eight-point underdog. The ‘dog has cashed in five of OSU’s last seven bowl contests, with the Buckeyes going 4-1 ATS as bowl pup during this span (including three outright upsets).

Oregon is making its fifth straight postseason appearance and 12th in the last 13 years, going 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS. Last year, the Ducks scored a wild 42-31 win over Oklahoma State in the Holiday Bowl, cashing as a 2½-point underdog, and that followed a 56-21 Sun Bowl rout of South Florida as a six-point underdog in 2007. The pup is 8-1 ATS in Oregon’s last nine postseason games.

Ohio State scored just 24, 27 and 21 points in its final three games after tallying 30 or more in seven of its first nine outings. Led by sophomore QB Terrelle Pryor (1,821 passing yards, 708 rushing yards, 23 total TDs, 10 INTs), the Buckeyes put up 29.2 points and 364.8 total yards per game, including a whopping 199.5 rushing ypg (4.7 per carry). Also, Ohio State’s defense was rock solid all year, holding nine opponents to 18 points or less, including posting three shutouts and giving up a single touchdown twice. Only Navy (27), Purdue (26) and Iowa (24) cracked the 20-point barrier against the Buckeyes, who ranked fifth in the nation in scoring defense (12.2 ppg), total defense (262.5 ypg) and rushing defense (83.4 ypg).

After struggling out of the gate, Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli came on strong and finished the year with 2,066 passing yards, 15 TDs and five INTs, while adding 659 rushing yards and another 12 touchdowns. The Ducks had scored 42 points or more in five straight games before being “held” to 37 in the finale against Oregon State. They finished averaging 37.7 points (7th nationally) and 424.7 total yards per game, including 236.1 rushing ypg (6th nationally) and 5.5 yards per rush (4th nationally). Defensively, Oregon gave up 20 points or less in six of its first eight games before yielding an average of 36.5 ppg over the final four outings.

Ohio State is on ATS runs 37-19 overall, 4-1 in non-conference play, 6-1-1 against the Pac-10, 7-1 versus winning teams, 10-2 following a SU victory, 22-5 on grass, 4-1 as an underdog and 5-1 as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points. The Ducks are on pointspread surges of 7-3 overall, 7-3 in bowls, 4-1 on Friday and 9-3 after a SU win.

Other than a 5-2 “over” streak in January bowl games, the Buckeyes are on nothing but “under” runs, including 8-2-1 overall, 7-1 outside the Big Ten, 5-1 versus Pac-10 competition, 5-0 as an underdog and 3-0-1 when playing on grass. Conversely, Oregon carries “over” trends of 18-7-2 overall, 6-2-1 in non-conference play, 5-1-1 against Big Ten foes, 15-4-2 as a favorite, 15-5-1 when laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-0 after a SU win. However, the Ducks have stayed low in five of seven postseason games, and the under is 13-6-1 in their last 20 on grass.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

SUGAR BOWL
(at New Orleans, La.)

(3) Cincinnati (12-0, 6-6 ATS) vs. (5) Florida (12-1, 6-6 ATS)

Two teams going through a lot of coaching turmoil meet up at the Superdome in the Big Easy, where Cincinnati tries to complete its first-ever perfect season with a victory over the defending-champion Gators.

Cincinnati needed a miracle to claim its second straight Big East title and second straight BCS Bowl berth, rallying from a 31-10 first-half deficit at Pittsburgh on Dec. 5 for a 45-44 victory, failing to cover as a two-point road favorite in what amounted to a conference title game. The Bearcats, who scored the deciding TD and ensuing extra-point with 33 seconds left at Pitt, won three of their final four games (all against Big East foes Pitt, West Virginia and UConn) by a total of six points while posting double-digit wins in eight of their other nine victories.

Shortly after the Pitt victory, Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly resigned to take the Notre Dame job. The Bearcats have since hired Central Michigan’s Butch Jones as Kelly’s replacement, but offensive coordinator Jeff Quinn – Kelly’s assistant for 22 years – will serve as the interim coach for this game before he departs and becomes the full-time head coach at Buffalo.

Florida’s 22-game winning streak – the longest at the time in the nation and the longest in school history – went up in flames in a 32-13 loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game Dec. 5, falling as a five-point favorite. In the defeat, the Gators offense produced a season-low in points and yards (335, including just 88 rushing) and its defense gave up a season-high in points and yards (490, including 251 on the ground). Alabama had the ball for nearly 40 minutes, thanks to converting 11 of 15 third-down tries, as it ended Florida’s hopes for back-to-back national titles.

Gators coach Urban Meyer was hospitalized with chest pains after the Alabama loss, then announced on Saturday that he would step down after this game because of health concerns. A day later, he altered course and said he’d take an indefinite leave of absence following the Sugar Bowl, putting the program in the hands of offensive coordinator Steve Addazio after tonight.

This is the first meeting between these schools since 1984, when Florida rolled 48-17. Ironically, Meyer is a Cincinnati alum.

The Gators are going bowling for the 19th straight time and 37th time in school history. Last year, they knocked off Oklahoma 24-14 as a 4½-point favorite to win the national championship, their second in three years under Meyer. Meyer is 5-1 SU and ATS all-time in bowl games (3-1 SU and ATS with Florida).

Cincinnati reached its first BCS game last year, losing the Orange Bowl to Virginia Tech 20-7 as a 2½-point favorite. This is the Bearcats’ third straight bowl appearance, and while they won the first two prior to last year’s Orange Bowl setback, they failed to cover in all three contests. In fact, they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven postseason outings.

Under Kelly’s guidance, Cincinnati had one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking sixth nationally in points scored (39.8 per game), total yards (464.3 per game) and passing yards (320.3 per game). The Bearcats also averaged 144 ypg on the ground (5.1 ypc). QB Tony Pike missed several games due to an injured left (non-throwing) forearm, but still passed for 2,349 yards (63 percent completion rate) with 26 TDs and just six INTs, while his backup Zach Collaros was also solid (75 percent, 1,434 yards, 10 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs, 2 INTs). Cincinnati scored 34 points or more eight times, topping the 40-point more on six occasions.

The Bearcats’ defense was solid through the first eight games, giving up 20 points or less each time out (average of 12.9 ppg). But they struggled down the stretch, allowing 45, 21, 36 and 44 points (36.5 ppg). Cincinnati was particularly susceptible against the run, giving up 141.6 rushing ypg overall and 188 rushing ypg over its final three outings.

During their 22-game winning streak, the Gators had posted 20 double-digit wins and gone 15-5 ATS in lined action, while the defense held all 22 opponents to 21 points or less. This year, including the debacle against Alabama, Florida averaged 34.7 points and 442.4 total yards per game (225.2 rushing ypg; 5.6 yards per rush). However, despite the presence of third-year starting QB Tim Tebow, the Gators were held to 29 points or less seven times. Although Tebow (2,413 passing yards, 18 passing TDs, 5 INTs; 859 rushing yards, 13 TDs) had a subpar year by his standards, he still enters this game with 8,803 career passing yards, 2,896 career rushing yards and 141 career TDs (85 passing, 56 rushing).

On the other side of the ball, Florida ranked third in scoring defense (11.5 ppg), fourth in total defense (252.8 ypg) and second in passing defense (150.5 ypg, 7 TD passes allowed). However, with the meltdown against Alabama, the Gators are yielding 102.3 rushing ypg, but have only allowed six rushing TDs.

Cincinnati is 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, but was only a pup once this year (in a season-opening 47-15 rout of Rutgers as a 4½-point road ‘dog). Otherwise, the Bearcats are in pointspread ruts of 0-4 overall (all as a chalk), 0-5 in non-conference play, 2-5 on Friday and 1-6 after a non-cover. Conversely, the Gators are on a slew of positive ATS runs, including 15-6 overall (all as a chalk), 20-7 in non-conference play, 20-6 against winning teams, 4-1 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 4-0 after a SU loss and 7-2 after an ATS setback.

The Bearcats are on “under” runs of 6-1 in bowl games, 4-0 in non-league contests and 5-2 on artificial turf. Florida is on “over” stretches of 6-2 in bowls, 7-2 at neutral sites and 6-1 in January contests, but the Gators have stayed low in eight of 11 overall (all as a favorite) and seven of nine when laying more than 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(6) West Virginia (11-0, 4-6 ATS) at (4) Purdue (12-0, 5-6-1 ATS)

Two of the top six teams in the country will square off in a non-conference showdown when the Mountaineers invade Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, Indiana to take on Purdue in a battle of unbeatens.

West Virginia was tested in its last outing, a 63-62 home win Tuesday over Marquette, coming nowhere near covering the 12 ½-point line. In fact, the Mountaineers have struggled in each of its last four contests, winning all four by a combined 19 points (1-3 ATS) over Marquette, Seton Hall, Ole Miss and Cleveland State. They have averaged 85 points a game on the road this season, shooting 51.4 percent from the floor.

Purdue hasn’t really been tested since a Nov. 23 win over Tennessee, scoring a 73-72 win and pushing as a one-point favorite. The Boilermakers have cruised in their last eight games, including a Big Ten victory at Iowa on Tuesday, winning 67-56 but coming up short as 14 ½-point favorites. They have relied on their defense this season, allowing just 59.6 points per game and limiting the opposition to 39.5 percent shooting.

Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers come into this one 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after a non-cover, but just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 non-conference contests. Purdue coach Matt Painter’s squad is just 1-4 overall, but on ATS runs of 4-0-1 against winning teams, 15-4 at home against teams with winning road marks and 7-3 on Fridays.

West Virginia has topped the posted total in four straight roadies, five of six on Fridays and four of five after a non-cover. Purdue has gone “over” the total in five straight on Fridays and four of five against non-conference teams, but stayed “under” the number in five of six at home against teams with winning road records.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE

Charlie Scott
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LSU vs. Penn State
Play: LSU +1
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This line has moved from LSU +2.5, and I feel the line move is correct. It's my opinion Penn st is overrated and their winning record is a product of an easy non conference schedule and a weak Big 10. The best teams Penn st faced this season Iowa and Ohio st, Penn st lost both s/u at home. Their offense is lethargic, can't pass and QB Clark isn't very good. LSU plays in the best conference (SEC), has NFL type talent and speed. LSU has had 3 s/u losses this season Florida, at Alabama and at Ole Miss. The talking heads in the media will make a big deal about Paterno's Bowl record. In reality Paterno and Penn st is 2-3 ATS and 3-2 s/u their last 5 Bowl games, while LSU is 4-0 ATS and s/u since 2005 in their Bowl games. PLAY LSU and play early as line is moving !

EZWINNERS
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West Virginia -2.5
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Seminole's head coach Bobby Bowden has a great record in bowl games and this will be an emotional game for FSU, but West Virginia is just the much better team in this match up. FSU has a horrible defense that ranks 110th in the nation and their offense has really dropped off since losing starting quarterback Christian Ponder to a shoulder injury. West Virginia's one two punch of quarterback Jarrett Brown and running back Noel Devine will be too much for FSU to handle. Lay the points.

Bobby Maxwell

Cincinnati vs. Florida -13, at New Orleans

I'm on a huge 17-3 run with my FREE selections and I've delivered a 40-17 record with comp plays the last two months. Today's free winner comes from the Sugar Bowl as I lay the points with Florida and look for the Gators to deliver a beatdown to Cincinnati.

What a strange this game is and it hasn’t even kicked off yet. Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly agreed to assume the coaching duties at Notre Dame and the Bearcats said they didn’t want him around for the Sugar Bowl. Florida coach Urban Meyer announced he was leaving the program for health reasons only to take it back the next day and decided to take an indefinite leave immediately after the Sugar Bowl.

The problem for Cincinnati is that the players were left feeling betrayed by Kelly and some were said to be very angry and upset when Kelly called them together to tell them the news. Meanwhile, what kind of emotions are going through the Gators’ heads with Meyer on the sideline before a leave and Tim Tebow playing his last game as Florida QB.

All things being equal, this could have been a wonderful game on the field. But with no Kelly to coach the Bearcats and them being upset and not motivated for this one, look for the Gators to jump up early and and you’ll see Cincinnati’s players start hanging their heads.

Meyer has guaranteed his team is ready to play and end the Tebow era on a winning note. I believe that. Teams he’s coached are 5-1 SU and ATS in bowl games, including 3-1 SU and ATS with Florida.

The Gators allow just 11.5 points a game and 150.5 yards through the air. They are on ATS runs of 15-6 overall, 20-7 in non-conference play, 20-6 against winning teams, 4-1 at neutral sites and 7-2 after a non-cover. Cincinnati is on ATS slides of 0-5 in non-conference action, 0-4 overall and 1-6 after a non-cover.

Lay the big chalk and play the Gators as this one ends up 45-21.

4♦ FLORIDA