Stephen Nover
Cincinnati vs. Florida -13, at New Orleans
This is a matchup of two teams that are disappointed to be in this bowl game and have had tremendous off-the-field distractions.
Cincinnati is without its head coach and play-caller, Brian Kelly. Florida may or may not have Urban Meyer back for next season.
Neither team has played since Dec. 5, nearly a month ago. That rust is going to hurt the offenses.
Florida has been a solid under team all season. The Gators went under in eight of their 12 board games, with two of the overs occurring because the Gators piled on points against hapless Troy and Florida International scoring a combined 118 points versus those two opponents.
This is a high total considering the caliber of Florida's defense. The Gators allow just 11.3 points per game. They rank among the top four in the country in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense.
Florida is hurt on offense because running back Brandon James isn't expected to play following foot surgery. He led the Gators in all-purpose yards with 1,324.
Defensively, though, the Gators welcome back star junior defensive end Carlos Dunlap, a probable first-round draft pick if he leaves Florida. He was suspended for the SEC title game following a DUI arrest. He's the Gators' top pass rusher.
5♦ CINCINNATI/FLORIDA UNDER
Brett Atkins
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I improved to 13-9-1 with my last 23 free selections after the Clippers crushed the Sixers on Thursday night. Tonight I've got a college football winner coming in the Sugar Bowl as I lay the chalk with Florida to get the best of Cincinnati.
This game is going to be full of emotion as Cincinnati is playing without the coach that got them undefeated to this point, and Florida is playing for a coach that stepped down last week only to come back the next day and decide to go on indefinite leave after this game.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Florida's Urban Meyer is now taking a leave and we'll likely see him on the sidelines next season. He's guaranteed this team will be ready to play today and his career has been full of bowl wins, includign 5-1 SU and ATS in his six postseason appearances and 3-1 SU and ATS with Florida.
The Gators allow just 11.5 points a game and 150.5 yards through the air. Cincinnati relies on its passing game, but nobody knows what kind of effort this team is going to put out tonight after coach Brian Kelly bolted for Notre Dame after the regular season.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Cincinnati is on ATS slides of 0-5 in non-conference action and 0-4 overall, while the Gators are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. Go ahead and lay the chalk with Florida in this one.
2♦ FLORIDA
Jay McNeil
I am simply killing it with my free plays, adding another winner Thursday as underdog Stanford hung tough with Oklahoma in the Sun Bowl. That pushed my record to 8-1 over the past nine days, and I'm going to carry that momentum into the new year!
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Oregon has a balanced offense, led by QB Jeremiah Masoli, who passed for 2,066 yards and 15 touchdowns with five interceptions, and rushed for 659 yards and 12 TDs. And he's got plenty of help on the ground with running backs LaMichael James (1,476 yards, 14 TDs) and LeGarrette Blount, who is back with the team following a suspension that cost him nearly the entire season.
Ohio State has the nation's fifth-best defense, but the Ducks average 37.7 ppg. And against tough defensive teams such as Arizona, Arizona State and Boise State this season, Oregon averaged 32 ppg.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Buckeyes QB Terrelle Pryor has tremendous athletic ability, no question, but he hasn't really thrived as a complete college QB. The sophomore leads the team in rushing, but he has passed for more than 200 yards just three times this season, and he has 10 interceptions to go with his 16 TD passes.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The ATS trends are pretty positive for both teams, but Oregon has more playmakers on its roster than Ohio State does. Take the favored Ducks to win by a touchdown today.
4♦ OREGON
Joel Tyson
Thursday comp play winner on Stanford plus the points.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
5-1 last 6 days with my comp plays!
Happy New Year to everyone, now let's get serious with a comp play winner on Cincinnati plus the points in the Sugar Bowl.
All of the off-field distractions have been played out, and at the end of the day, this is just too many points to be laying for a Florida team that only covered 3 of their last 8 games to get to this game.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Florida is not equipped to just blow teams out, and I can tell you that the undefeated Bearcats are out to show everyone that they can finish this mission without departed coach Brian Kelly.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Bearcats may not finish this mission with the outright win, but they will hang inside of this very large impost.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Take the points.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Chuck O'Brien
Take Florida and lay the points against Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s night.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
This is NOT going to be a repeat of last year’s Sugar Bowl, when Alabama – still distraught after losing to Florida in the SEC championship game – came out disinterested and lost to undefeated Utah 31-17 as a 10-point favorite. Trust me, Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer will NOT allow the Gators to come out flat or disinterested. In fact, just the opposite. Florida will play with a sense of purpose tonight as it tries to get rid of the bitter taste that is still lingering from that 32-13 loss to Alabama in the SEC title tilt.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The last time the Gators lost a game, Tebow made his now famous declaration in a postgame news conference, and all Florida did was rip off 22 straight wins, with 20 of those being double-digit blowouts. The Gators also went 15-5 ATS in the 20 games that had betting lines during their win streak (meaning they come into this one still on a 15-6 ATS roll, all as a favorite).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Cincinnati had a surprising season and definitely deserves to be here. But the Bearcats struggled in their last three Big East games (beating UConn, West Virginia and Pitt by a total of six points, failing to cover in all three). They also struggled in wins over Oregon State (28-18 on the road), Fresno State (28-20 at home) and Syracuse (28-7 on the road), and the defense gave up an average of 36.5 ppg in its final four games (after allowing 12.9 ppg in the first eight wins). And with coach Brian Kelly – the architect of Cincy’s explosive offense – having split for Notre Dame, that can only have a negative impact on the Bearcats, especially on offense.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Throw in the fact this is Tebow’s final game at Florida and Meyer’s last game before he takes his sabbatical, and everything points to a blowout win by Florida.
3♦ FLORIDA GATORS
SPORTS WAGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Ohio St +1.71 over Oregon
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Well, here we have it again, as the classic battle between the tortoise and the hare, much like the Air Force/Houston, goes one more round. On one hand is the high flying Oregon Ducks, a team that possesses a juggernaut offense that plays with reckless abandon and that doesn’t mind getting into a 54-44 shootout. On the other hand is the methodical and disciplined Buckeyes, a team that loves to run, use the clock and grind out wins. As the story goes, the hare always wins and it was proven once again yesterday when Air Force rolled over the Cougars, 47-20. These high flying offensive teams have a poor history in Bowl games when playing its polar opposite and one could argue that after being off for a month or more, the offense, which relies heavily on good timing, is out of sync. Throw in the stellar defense of the well-coached Buckeyes here and what we have is all the makings of a small upset. The Ducks employ all sorts of different running sets and just love to run these creative running plays, but this isn’t Washington, Arizona St or Purdue they’re playing. No, this is one of the best recruiting teams in the nation and one if the perennial powers that is usually favored to win. Now they’ll come in with as a pooch against this good but very erratic and very beatable Ducks squad. Yes, the Ducks had a great year but I’m nowhere near being convinced that they’re as good as advertised. The 10-2 Buckeyes, that beat a lot of good teams down the stretch including Penn St and Iowa, will run the ball down the throat of this opponent, control the clock and probably beating them in impressive fashion. Take the 4½ if you like, I’m taking the Buckeyes straight up. Play: Ohio St +1.71 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Florida St +1.15 over West Virginia
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Mountaineers are ranked 18th in the nation. They went 9-3 on the year, yet playing the unranked and just 6-6 Seminoles, WVU is a small 2½-point choice. Based on that it would appear like the Mountaineers would be a pretty decent wager. However, a lot of times in college football things are not as they appear and this is one of those times. The Mountaineers offense can be called a joke. They played a lousy schedule in terms of the opposition and in fact, its first six games were against Liberty, East Carolina, Auburn, Colorado, Syracuse and Marshall. They scored 17-points against Louisville on Nov 7 in a 17-9 win and lost 30-19 to South Florida the week prior. They played two ranked teams this season and split them, losing to Cincinnati and beating Pitt by three. Only once in the final six weeks of the year did the Mountaineers manage to score more than 24 points and were hard-pressed to score even 21. Enter the Seminoles, a team that played a schedule that was about 50 times tougher than WVU’s. FSU beat BYU, they lost by just 5 to a strong Georgia Tech team and they also played the #1 team in the land, Florida, not to mention games against Clemson, South Florida, Miami and Boston College. Furthermore, this game is in Florida and it’s also the final game for Bobby Bowden as coach of this storied franchise. Not only are the Seminoles the superior team here, the players will play their hearts out X 10 for Bowden, a guy that is a legend, is loved by his players and that brought prominence to this program. West Virginia favored over FSU in Jacksonville? Are you kidding me? This might be the best play of the day. Play: Florida St +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Evansville at Northern Iowa
Prediction: Northern Iowa
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and that are 23-9 ATS their last 32 games overall. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS off a straight up win and they are 5-1 ATS their last 6 Conference games. Evansville is 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 games off an ATS loss and they are 1-4-1 ATS off a straight up loss. The Purple Aces are 0-4 ATS their last 4 Friday games and they are 0-5 ATS their last 5 games vs. the Panthers. PLAY ON NORTHERN IOWA -
O.C. Dooley
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Florida -12’ versus Cincinnati
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The “intangible” actually stretches back exactly one year ago when Utah of the Mountain West Conference ended up pounding Alabama from what is regarded as America’s premier collegiate league (SEC). The Utes win set the stage for the Mountain West to be evaluated on a par with the six leagues that have automatic BCS berths this season, with three teams ranked in the Top 25 most of the way. One can make a strong argument that the mighty Southeast Conference was “let off the hook” so to speak this year as Florida does not have to face another undefeated and motivated squad from the Mountain West draw (TCU) like Alabama had to deal with a year ago. Of course Cincinnati comes into this game with an undefeated record but unlike TCU who is one of the nation’s best defensive squads, the Bearcats stop-unit was very generous down the stretch allowing a very high average of 36’ points per game in the most recent 4 outings. Cincinnati has thrived most of the season by outscoring the opposition on the strength of coach Brian Kelly’s “spread” offense. Problem is that less than one week after the regular season finale, Kelly turned his back on the Cincinnati program leaving for the greener pastures (paycheck) of Notre Dame leaving both confusion and anger amongst the Bearcats faithful. For Kelly to virtually abandon the nation’s #4 ranked team who is undefeated and ready to play the biggest game of their lives is unspeakable. To make matters worse Kelly proclaimed in the media earlier this week that if Cincinnati had made the BCS Title game, he would have stayed on to coach one extra game. One year ago in a BCS Bowl situation such as this heavily favored Alabama faced an emotional “letdown” following a loss in the Southeast Conference Championship clash and Florida could have faced the same exact scenario in this evening’s Sugar Bowl. But due to the stunning health developments regarding head coach Urban Meyer who after tonight will be taking an indefinite leave of absence. Florida is far from being caught in an emotional letdown. The players emotional reaction to Meyer’s original retirement announcement along with their “spirited” practice session with their head coach this past Sunday means that the Gators will be focused even though not being in the “ultimate” BCS contest for the third time in 4 years. Urban Meyer (56-10 Florida record) has said his team will do everything possible to win tonight’s game in order to preserve a positive legacy for all the seniors including star quarterback Tim Tebow. Florida is an outstanding 15-4 ATS long term against “non” conference competition and UNDEFEATED where it counts the past three years (7-0 ATS) after winning 3 times outright in a four-game span so the percentages are in our favor
DUNKEL INDEX
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Florida State vs. West Virginia
The Moutaineers look to take advantage of a Florida State team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Mountaineers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 241-242: Northwestern vs. Auburn
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 85.662; Auburn 94.781
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Auburn by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-7); Under
Game 243-244: Florida State vs. West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 90.350; West Virginia 95.197
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 5; 55
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 2 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2); Under
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 245-246: LSU vs. Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: LSU 101.843; Penn State 101.701
Dunkel Line: Even; 40
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: LSU (+3); Under
Game 247-248: Ohio State vs. Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 104.600; Oregon 111.960
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 7 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Oregon by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-3 1/2); Over
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 249-250: Cincinnati vs. Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 100.018; Florida 110.596
Dunkel Line: Florida by 10 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: Florida by 12 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+12 1/2); Over
NBA
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Orlando at Minnesota
The Timberwolves look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Minnesota is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Magic favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8 1/2)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 701-702: New York at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New York 114.734; Atlanta 125.929
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 11; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: New York (+11 1/2); Over
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 703-704: Orlando at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 122.787; Minnesota 115.656
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 7; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8 1/2); Under
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 705-706: Sacramento at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.236; LA Lakers 125.633
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 12 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
West Virginia at Purdue
The Boilermakers look to take advantage of a West Virginia team that is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games. Purdue is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Boilermakers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-4)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 707-708: Creighton at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 58.934; Indiana State 57.783
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Creighton
Game 709-710: West Virginia at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 72.629; Purdue 78.570
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 6
Vegas Line: Purdue by 4
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-4)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 711-712: Southern Illinois at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Illinois 57.331; Bradley 61.244
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 4
Vegas Line: Bradley by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (-2 1/2)
Game 713-714: Illinois State at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 62.455; Missouri State 65.437
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 3
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (+5 1/2)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 715-716: Drake at Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 50.476; Wichita State 68.487
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 18
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-14)
Game 717-718: Evansville at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 51.968; Northern Iowa 69.865
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 18
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 16
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-16)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 719-720: Dayton at New Mexico
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 64.157; New Mexico 69.569
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+7 1/2)
NHL
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Atlanta at Buffalo
The Sabres look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 0-5 in its last 5 road games. Buffalo is the pick (-180) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-180)
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.544; Boston 12.286
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Under
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Game 3-4: Atlanta at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.179; Buffalo 11.691
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-180); Under
Dominic Fazzini
Cincinnati vs. Florida -13 at New Orleans
I might as well be shoveling money out to you the way I've been delivering winners with my complimentary selections. I hit again Thursday with Air Force, pushing my record to 51-31 over the past 82 days, including a 34-18 run over the last 52!
And just because we're in a new year, that doesn't mean anything is going to change as far as my performance. I've got another winner for you today with Florida in the Sugar Bowl.
The Gators might have been disappointed after their loss to Alabama in the SEC title game, but they have the most dynamic leader in college football with quarterback Tim Tebow, and the revelation of coach Urban Meyer's health issues is going to drive the team to even greater heights today.
On the other end of the spectrum are the Bearcats, who are probably the most deflated unbeaten team in the history of sports. After going 12-0, Cincinnati had to watch as head coach Brian Kelley walked away from the team to go to Notre Dame. That has to be quite the kick in the balls to his players, who might be pissed off but can't really be expected to give their sharpest performance of the season today.
Florida has much more talent than Cincinnati on both sides of the ball, especially on defense, as the Gators are ranked fourth in total defense and third against the pass.
Florida is on ATS runs of 15-6 overall, 15-6 as a favorite, 20-6 vs. teams with winning records, 20-7 in nonconference games, 4-1 at neutral sites and 4-1 as a neutral-site favorite. The Bearcats, though, are on ATS slides of 0-4 overall, 1-6 in bowl games and 1-5 in nonconference games. Go with the Gators today, as they should win this one by about 20 points.
4♦ FLORIDA
MONEYMAKERS
NORTHWESTERN +8 OVER AUBURN
Line seems high, likely based as much on the SEC vs. Big 10 matchup as anything else. Auburn has good team speed, but is otherwise a fairly pedestrian SEC team. Northwestern may not have the big play capability of Auburn, but they’re a team that has built a reputation for hard nosed, scrappy play under head coach Pat Fitzgerald. They’ve become year in and year out one of the best underdogs in college football. This season they were 5-2 ATS as an underdog with a perfect 3-0 mark as a dog in this price range (3’ to 10 points). Over the past three years they’re 13-7 ATS as a dog, with a 5-0 mark in the aforementioned spread range. Not only have they covered point spreads when getting points, but they’ve won outright as well. They’ve won a total of 8 games outright as dogs in the past two seasons, with 12 outright victories in the past four seasons. They’ll be in this one throughout and could pull the outright upset.
WEST VIRGINIA -2’ OVER FLORIDA STATE
Way too much overcompensation in the line due to the fact that this is Bobby Bowden’s last game as Seminoles head coach. The reality remains that this Seminoles team just isn’t very good. FSU is really bad on defense, ranking #110 nationally in total defense and the coaching staff is in disarray with Jimbo Fisher already making a number of hirings and firings to get ready for next year. Mountaineers are simply a much superior team in every phase of the game with a big play QB in Jarrett Brown and running back in Noel Devine. The Seminoles players may be motivated to win one last game for Bowden, but the talent simply isn’t there. West Virginia should win and cover with relative ease.
LSU +2’ OVER PENN STATE
Joe Paterno is likely nearing the end of his run at Penn State, and he’s vastly overmatched here in the coaching department against Les Miles. Nittany Lions played a very weak non-conference schedule, and performed poorly whenever they stepped up in class against the elite within their own conference. LSU still doesn’t have the best offense in the game, but they do have a fearsome defense with a frontline that will give Penn State’s OL all sorts of problems. Miles has become one of the best bowl coaches in college football, going 4-0 in his bowl games beating the point spread by well over 100 points. LSU wins outright by a TD+.
OHIO STATE +4 OVER OREGON
We’re generally down on the Pac 10 as a conference this bowl season, and this could be a very bad tactical matchup for the Oregon Ducks. Oregon has one of the most explosive ‘big play’ offenses in the country, but Ohio State has the far superior defense. The Buckeyes will also be better rested and better prepared than the Ducks, having last played on November 21 while Oregon played its season ending ‘Civil War’ rivalry tilt against Oregon State in early December.Ducks were 0-3 ATS away from Autzen Stadium against bowl bound opponents. Big emotional/motivational edge to Ohio State, who is looking to atone for back-to-back bowl disasters against LSU and Florida. They may not blow out Oregon, but we like them to win outright and at this price that’s all they need to do.
LT Profits
Dayton @ New Mexico
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
While the Dayton Flyers and New Mexico Lobos have both proven that they can score, we look for their defenses to rule the night when the teams square off in Albuquerque New Years night.
After all, Dayton is only allowing 63.1 points per game on 41.8 percent shooting vs. Division I opponents this season, and because of that defense, the Under is 5-2 in all Flyers games that have had a posted total. Even though the Dayton offense is averaging 70.4 points per game, that still means that their games are only averaging a combined 133.5 points, about seven points less than this posted total.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Looking at the Pomeroy Ratings, the Dayton defense is allowing only .923 points per possession after adjusting for schedule, which ranks the Flyers an excellent 57 in the country in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, we do not expect Dayton to reach their 70-point offensive average here either vs. a New Mexico defense that has been suffocating opponents at home.
In fact, the Lobos are only allowing 61.5 points per game on a miniscule 39.7 percent shooting in this building, and they have not been beating up in cupcakes as in past years, as they have beaten the likes of California and Texas Tech here. New Mexico has faced nothing but Division I opponents this season, so they really do have an improved defense as their numbers are legitimate.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
According to Pomeroy, the Lobos are allowing .942 points per possession, which ranks 81 in the nation. While that ranking is already respectable, New Mexico has played much better defensively at home, so the end result of this contest should be a combined total topping out at 135 or so.
Pick: Dayton/New Mexico Under 140.5
Michael Cannon
LSU vs. Penn State -1, at Orlando, FL
I am now 53-39-3 with my last 95 free plays.
Take Penn State over LSU in the Capital One Bowl.
Penn State has the much better offense and the defenses are just about equal, so it’s a mystery as to why this line would be at a near pick ‘em.
Lsu struggled all season long offensively, ranking 11th in the SEC. They played conservatively all season long because of the lack of trust in quarterback Jordan Jefferson. The Tigers basically lean on their defense every week to keep the game close and then find a way to win.
That’s not going to work today.
Penn State will stifle this pitiful Tigers attack, and when the Nittany Lions go on offense they have enough weapons to get something done.
There is a misconception that the SEC overall is superior to the Big Ten, but in this matchup that doesn’t ring true.
Lsu is on pointspread slides of 6-13 overall, 4-9 after a SU win, 8-20 on grass and 1-4-1 as a dog of three points or less. Penn State is on ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after a SU win.
Take Penn State as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ PENN STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Cincinnati vs. Florida -13, at New Orleans
I'm on a huge 17-3 run with my FREE selections and I've delivered a 40-17 record with comp plays the last two months. Today's free winner comes from the Sugar Bowl as I lay the points with Florida and look for the Gators to deliver a beatdown to Cincinnati.
What a strange this game is and it hasn’t even kicked off yet. Cincinnati coach Brian Kelly agreed to assume the coaching duties at Notre Dame and the Bearcats said they didn’t want him around for the Sugar Bowl. Florida coach Urban Meyer announced he was leaving the program for health reasons only to take it back the next day and decided to take an indefinite leave immediately after the Sugar Bowl.
The problem for Cincinnati is that the players were left feeling betrayed by Kelly and some were said to be very angry and upset when Kelly called them together to tell them the news. Meanwhile, what kind of emotions are going through the Gators’ heads with Meyer on the sideline before a leave and Tim Tebow playing his last game as Florida QB.
All things being equal, this could have been a wonderful game on the field. But with no Kelly to coach the Bearcats and them being upset and not motivated for this one, look for the Gators to jump up early and and you’ll see Cincinnati’s players start hanging their heads.
Meyer has guaranteed his team is ready to play and end the Tebow era on a winning note. I believe that. Teams he’s coached are 5-1 SU and ATS in bowl games, including 3-1 SU and ATS with Florida.
The Gators allow just 11.5 points a game and 150.5 yards through the air. They are on ATS runs of 15-6 overall, 20-7 in non-conference play, 20-6 against winning teams, 4-1 at neutral sites and 7-2 after a non-cover. Cincinnati is on ATS slides of 0-5 in non-conference action, 0-4 overall and 1-6 after a non-cover.
Lay the big chalk and play the Gators as this one ends up 45-21.
4♦ FLORIDA
Scott Delaney
Northwestern vs. Auburn
Yes, Northwestern has the better record by one game.
The Tigers are 7-5, while the Wildcats are 8-4.
But Auburn plays in the SEC, and that means something more than a mediocre Big 10 team.
There's a much bigger showdown between these conferences, as Penn State takes on LSU, but here, we can attribute the strength of conference to the matchup.
And since Northwestern has lost six straight bowl games since winning the 1949 Rose Bowl, I'm siding with the Tigers, who will be led by senior Chris Todd , who ranks fourth in the Southeastern Conference with 21 touchdown passes and who has thrown a mere six interceptions.
Fellow senior Ben Tate ranked fourth in the league with 1,254 rushing yards, and together they've led an Auburn team that was third in the SEC with 432.3 yards from scrimmage and 32.9 points per game.
I know Nothwestern has a pretty good offense, but I don't think its offensive line will be able to contain defensive end Antonio Coleman, whose 23-1/2 sacks rank third in Auburn history; especially when the Wildcats gave up the second-most sacks in the Big Ten.
Auburn dominates in the trenches, and with its explosive offense.
Lay the points
4♦ AUBURN TIGERS