Tony Weston
Just a brutally bad call on Tennessee yesterday. Looks like Lane Kiffin’s crew isn’t quite ready yet to take on the big boys in bowl season.
But I’m not sweating that loss yesterday because I’m delivering with a solid Comp Play winner today as I’m taking West Virginia over Florida State in the Gator Bowl.
Coming into this game the Seminoles are just 6-6 SU this season and have covered in only 3 of their 12 games. Down the stretch Florida State has covered in only 2 of its 9 games, including just 1 of its last 5.
On the other side, West Virginia comes into this game riding a 3-game cover streak and has covered in 3 of its last 4 away from home.
The Mountaineers will get over again on the road as they beat up Florida State in Bobby Bowden’s final game coaching the Seminoles.
3♦ WEST VIRGINIA
Craig Davis
Today, I'm giving you three side winners and a free play winner on LSU/Penn State UNDER the total. The first thing I noticed was that this game was being played in Orlando... on the same field that Wisconsin and Miami played on just a few days ago. The sod is in rough shape and hasn't gotten any better since the other night, and we all saw how low-scoring that game was because no one could get their footing. That, in itself, is enough of a reason to side with the UNDER. I also like the UNDER today because I don't think either team wants to get into a shootout and will be comfortable keeping the ball on the ground. And if you ask them, the real strength of these teams is the defenses. Penn State allowed just 11 points per game while LSU allowed 16, and with both teams expected to keep the ball on the ground, this game could end up a good 10 points under the posted total. The under has cashed in four of the last five non-conference games for both Penn State and LSU and the UNDER has also cashed in 5 of Penn State's last 7 bowl games. No reason to think any differently today. This game finishes well under the total.
2♦ UNDER
Bob Balfe
Penn State -1 over LSU
Both teams are evenly matched, but LSU has a very young QB in addition to being a very young team overall. I do not think the Tigers will be able to score much on PSU. Look for veteran leadership and Coach Paterno who has the most bowl wins in all of College Football to get a big win today. Take Penn State.
Timothy Black
NorthWestern vs. Auburn
Play: NorthWestern +9
The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 3.5-10 points. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Auburn will only be able to control Northwestern's dink and dunk passing gam
Drew Gordon
Cincinnati +13 vs Florida at New Orleans, LA
28-20-2 roll L50 Free Plays! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Sugar Bowl, as Cincinnati and Florida face-off from the Superdome.
A lot of public love for the Gators here, and I can understand why. The media has been hyping "Tebow's last game" and "win one for coach Meyer" angles all week long, and I believe the public has bought it hook, line, and sinker! Fact is, these two teams are a lot closer than Vegas wants you to believe, and while the Bearcats almost certainly won't win this game SU, they sure as hell will keep it within the bloated number!
How do they do it? With one of the best offenses in college, led by arguably the best pocket passer at this level, Tony Pike. The Bearcats offense is the key to this contest, because, as we saw with the SEC Title game, If you can score on Florida early, you can force them to go away from the run. When the Gators get pass-happy, their lack of playmakers at the WR position becomes obvious, and they become a VERY beatable team as a whole (as Alabama demonstrated with their 32-13 shellacking of Florida).
Next, let's talk motivation, because everyone seems to be keying on coach Kelly's abandoning his team for Notre Dame. Granted, it doesn't help, but if I were a Gators-backer, I'd be MUCH more concerned with the team's focus in a Bowl game that is considered well beneath Florida's standards. Also, there's several seniors and up to 7 juniors all looking to turn pro, so given that fact, one had to wonder: will they play hard in a meaningless Bowl game? Or will they "lay off" looking to avoid a catastrophic injury (ala Willis McGahee in '03 Fiesta Bowl).
Bottom line, while I have no doubt the Gators defense will be the difference in winning or losing this game SU, the Bearcats offense has more than enough firepower to keep this Cincy team within the number. Too many distractions for a disinterested Gator team, and with the public money pouring in on Florida, I'm happy to go with the a great Cincy team getting no respect in this spot.
Take Cincinnati plus the points over Florida in this college football match up.
2♦ CINCINNATI
Rocketman
Ohio State vs Oregon
Play: Ohio St +4.5
Both teams come in with identical 10-2 overall records this year. Oregon is 18-34 ATS since 1992 as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points. Ohio State is allowing only 12.2 points per game overall and 11.4 points per game on the road this year. I think defense will be one of the keys to Ohio State winning this one. Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Buckeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. Buckeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Pac-10. Buckeyes are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. Buckeyes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Buckeyes are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games on grass. Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games. Buckeyes are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall. We'll recommend a small play on Ohio State today!
Lenny Del Genio
ATL -11.5 vs NYK
We look for the Hawks to blow the Knicks out here after suffering back-to-back losses in a home and home with Cleveland. In fact, this originally was going to be a premium play before the line got so high. Giving Atlanta "added motivation" is the fact that they lost to New York on their home floor back on December 4th, 114-107, allowing the Knicks to shoot a season high 57.7% from the floor. But Atlanta's best defensive player (Josh Smith) drew two first half technicals in that game, thus getting ejected and having an obvious negative impact on that end of the floor. Smith averages 2.3 blocks per game, which is 3rd best in the NBA. It was only one of three home losses the Hawks have suffered all year. Even usually clueless Knicks guard Chris Duhon took notice of Smith's absence: "It definitely makes a big difference. Usually you come off the pick and roll to the rim, Number 5 is back there. If he doesn't stop you he's going to make you alter your shot." New York had actually been playing better defense of late (unusual for them and for a D'Antoni coached team), holding 11 straight opponents to under 100 points, but they just gave up 104 in an unforgiveable loss to New Jersey two nights ago. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS this season off a SU loss, including a cover and near upset of the Cavs in Cleveland Wednesday night. Take Atlanta.
John Ryan
Dayton vs. New Mexico
Play: Under 140
Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Dayton/New Mexico set to start at 9:00 EST in CBB action. AiS shows a 71% probability that 140 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 37-11 ATS for 77% winners since 1997. Play under with home teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points and is a very good team outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, on Friday nights. Take the UNDER.