Ray MonohanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto Raptors vs. Washington WizardsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto Raptors +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Raptors are one of the hottest teams in the league right now and it is time to ride the wave a little farther. Not only are they playing much better but they are winning on the road. They have won 5 of their last 6 away from the ACC including beating top teams like Oklahoma City. They are a shiny 11-5 ATS as the visitor this season and face an inconsistent Washington team who is not overly strong at home. This is a spot play but get on it soon as the number may lose some value as we approach gametime.
Carolina SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Utah vs. Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 195½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Lakers are 25-7 OVER off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Lakers are 10-0 OVER in home games off 2 or more consecutive upset losses as a home favorite since 1996. Lakers are 20-5 OVER in home games after scoring 80 points or less since 1996. Lakers are 16-5 OVER against Northwest division opponents with D'Antoni as the Head Coach. Utah is 105-67 OVER in road games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since 1996. Take the over.
Greg ShakerFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Hornets / Celtics Over 200FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Line: An opening of 201 for this game in Boston and it has drifted down to 200 at this writing. It would NOT surprise me to see it go lower by game time tonight and has already seen 199 at Pinny and others..
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Why We Bet It: I do understand that this betting number almost looks obscene as we rarely see a Celtic Total Posted at 200 or more. In fact scanning their last 10 games we have seen just one an it was exactly 200 verses the high flying Wolves. That game went Under. So why the OVER here? After all the last 8 of 9 played between these two have played Under and the last 12 of 14 here in Boston have as well. Plus the Market seems to agree with those trends. It is because of the Pelicans who have demonstrated that they have no desire to play defense, ranked #25 in the league and even worse than that when they travel. They do however have strong OE at #6 and because of that their games away from home have seen 210 points per outing average-wise. Their last few games verses crawlers, Memphis, Chicago, Bobcats, all went OVER the mark and in each game they netted Over 100 points. In fact in those 3 they averaged an amazing 113! These things make our number here higher than what Books have and it is 205.7. That's good enough to play.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Biggest Concerns: Overall the Celtics OE has been pretty dismal of late failing to hit the century mark 4 of their last 5 games, although 2 of those came verses the Bulls and Pacers which are 2 of the lower pace and better D's in the league..
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Added Notes: You can play this game up to 202 but no further than that and I do not expect it to hit that level anyway..
Rickie RobbinsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver NuggetsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +4FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Denver Nuggets hope to put a halt to their eight-game skid tonight when they play host to the Memphis Grizzlies.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Grizzlies have won four of their last six and are coming off an impressive 99-91 win over the surging Suns thanks to 20 [points and 15 rebounds from Zach Randolph and plenty of support from the bench. In particular Jerryd Bayless was clutch in the fourth quarter, finishing with 17 points while Ed Davis provided some unexpected production with 16 points and 11 rebounds in just 28 minutes off the bench. With the win, Memphis improve to 14-17 overall and 7-6 on the road.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Meanwhile, the Nuggets just can't buy a win these days, losing eight straight and 11 of their last 14. On Wednesday, things went from bad to worse as the Nuggets got run off the floor by the 76ers in their own building. JJ Hickson led hte team with 19 points, while Wilson Chandler added 16, but the Nuggets could never recover from a horror 44-26 second quarter where they allowed the Sixers gain the momentum and eventaully cruise to victory by 114-102. With the loss, Denver drop to 14-17 overall and 7-8 at home.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
In ATS trends, the Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win and 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record, while the Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Nuggets have been in a world of hurt for a while now and it doesn't really seem like they're on the verge of turning things around so I'm a little surprised that they're favorites in this game. With that being said, I still think that the Nuggets have a decent shot at ending their losing streak tonight, but I'm still taking the Grizzlies with the points in this one.
Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
2 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Clemson/ Ohio State Over 70.5: The Clemson Tigers come in with the 12th ranked passing offense in the nation, behind QB Tahj Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins. Now they take on a Buckeye defense that has been horrendous vs the pass, ranking 105th in the nation. The Buckeye offense has been explosive and they will be going up against the weakness of the Clemson defense. The Clemson Tigers are a solid 14th vs the pass this year, but 50th vs the run and will be facing the Buckeyes 3rd ranked rushing offense. Both teams will come out firing in this game and when faced vs strong offenses both defenses have struggled this year. I see it happening again as we get at least 72 points in this one.
Larry NessFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Memphis Grizzlies at Denver NuggetsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Denver NuggetsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
The 14-17 Nuggets have lost EIGHT in a row heading into Friday night's game with the Grizzlies, a rematch of a 122-99 Memphis home win last Saturday. Memphis is also 14-17, having won FOUR of its last six games, including a surprising 99-91 win last night in Phoenix over the Suns.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
The Grizzlies are without Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph has scored at least 20 points FIVE times in his six contests and last night (20 & 15) recorded his fifth double-double in that span. In last Saturday's game against Denver, Randolph scored a team-best 20 points and was one of six players in double figures as the Grizzlies outscored the Nuggets 54-30 in the paint. Four of those players, came from Memphis' bench, which had a season-high 62 points.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
The Grizzlies look to grab another win against a team that's on the verge of its longest skid in 11 seasons. The Nuggets haven't dropped nine straight since a 14-game losing streak Feb 6-Mar 5, 2003. Denver is also trying to avoid its first six-game skid at home since a string of seven consecutive defeats during that same season, and it will have less depth for that attempt. The Nuggets suspended Miller on Thursday for "conduct detrimental to the team."
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
The PG was held out of a game while healthy for the first time in his career in a 114-102 loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday, and there are reports he has vocally expressed his displeasure with coach Brian Shaw about his lack of playing time. The 15-year veteran was averaging career lows of 19.0 minutes, 5.9 points and 3.3 assists. "It just came to a boiling point. We made a decision and we're moving forward," coach Brian Shaw said.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
It's hard to believe that just last season, Denver set a franchise record by going 38-3 SU at home. The good news is, the Nuggets catch the Grizzlies in a back-to-back game situation plus should feel good about the fact that they have won 30 of the last 34 meetings here in Denver against the Grizzlies. If not here, when for the Nuggets? Take Denver.
Jeff Alexander
George Washington -8½
GW saw its 6-game win streak come to an end with a 72-55 loss at K-State, but it should waste no time getting back in the win column. Favorites that return all five starters and are off a road loss where they were held to less than 60 points are 82-41 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 10.1 points. Georgia won last season's meeting by 11 points so GW will have added motivation to avenge that defeat. The Colonials are 6-0 ATS in January home games under coach Lonergan, winning them by an average of 13.0 points.
Jack Jones
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Denver Nuggets -3½
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The Denver Nuggets are showing some of their best value of the season tonight as only a 3.5-point home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies. I'll take advantage and back them in what I believe is going to be a blowout in their favor by game's end.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The reason Denver is undervalued right now is because it has lost eight straight games while going 1-7 ATS in the process. That includes a 99-120 loss at Memphis on December 28. So, you can bet that the Nuggets won't be lacking motivation tonight as they try to end this skid and get payback.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Memphis will be playing the second of a back-to-back off a big win at Phoenix last night. Meanwhile, Denver comes in on one day of rest and will have the edge in that department because of it.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The home team has won four straight and 10 of the last 12 meetings in this series. In fact, Denver is 29-3 in 32 home meetings with Memphis dating back to 1996. That's history that I certainly want to side with tonight given the situation. Bet the Nuggets Friday.
Dave Price
New Orleans Pelicans -3
New Orleans enters this contest with losses in two of its last three games as its defense has let it down. However, the Pelicans are a perfect 8-0 ATS this season after allowing 100 points or more in three straight games, winning by an average of 11.8 points in this situation. The Pelicans are also 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are struggling, going 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in the last six, and they are up against a more talented team tonight. The Pelicans are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last 3 against Boston. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Oklahoma State -1½ over MissouriFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The Tigers were a game away from playing for a national championship and choked big time in a blowout loss to Auburn. One game does not define a team and it’s hard to ignore the pedigree of playing in the SEC that Missouri brings to this game but that loss sticks out when you consider that more than half of Auburn's SEC wins were Houdini acts. Much like Alabama, Missouri’s out-of-conference schedule was awful and its best wins came against Georgia and Texas A&M.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Both of these teams can score but one should not ignore that the Cowboys defense allowed just 20 points a game, which ranked 20th in the country, while playing some of the most potent offenses in the offensive oriented Big-12. OSU held Baylor to 17 points, Mississippi State to three points, Kansas to six points, Texas to 13 points, TCU to 10 points and the list goes on. Oklahoma State's new look offense (more rushing than passing) is less a case of premeditated philosophical overhaul and more an example of quality offensive coaches playing to the strengths of their personnel. The Cowboys can beat you in so many different ways. We love the direction of Mike Gundy's program and we like the Cowboys to put an exclamation mark on their terrific season against a Tigers team that is good but that is also more beatable than the Cowboys.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Clemson +136 over Ohio StateFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
The Buckeyes came into the year with high expectations but came up just short in the Big Ten championship game against Michigan State in a 34-24 loss. The offense set a school record in averaging 46 points per game, while quarterback Braxton Miller, despite missing a couple of games, had a solid 22-5 TD-to-INT ratio while topping 1,000 rushing yards for the second consecutive year. That’s nice, it really is but when you schedule games against cream puffs you eventually pay the price and that’s precisely what happened to the Buckeyes. OSU did have some nice wins against Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern but still allowed 24 points or more against all of those clubs. As a 17-point dog, the Wolverines racked up 41 points on the Buckeyes and the following week, the Spartans pedestrian offense racked up 34 points. So, the Buckeyes ended the year 12-1 but impressive is was not and one could even make an argument for OSU being on the right side of fortunate. Ohio State's field-position management success was a major factor in keeping it in the BCS championship hunt throughout the season. Against Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Michigan, the Buckeyes' field-position value generated was greater than their margin of victory in those games. In other words, if the teams had faced off with equal starting field position, the Buckeyes would be only 9-4 and not headed to a BCS bowl game. A team that dominates field position consistently is not necessarily lucky but one that needs that field-position edge to win games against a relatively light schedule can be considered fortunate.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
Meanwhile, the Tigers lost to Florida State and South Carolina, arguably two of the top 5 teams in the country with Florida State ranked #1. Those two games were Clemson’s biggest games of the year but they were simply the second best team both times and even outclassed. They’re not outclassed here. In fact, the oddsmakers had so much respect for the Tigers that they were just a 2½-point dog at South Carolina and a 5-point dog against FSU. Clemson’s QB, Tajh Boyd owns nearly every single Clemson passing record while their special teams boast one of the most accurate kickers in college football the last two years in Chandler Catanzaro. Urban Meyer has a great Bowl record and the Buckeyes are among the most popular teams in the country but we're not buying that they're as elite as advertised. It's hard to envision anything other than a competitive game in which both teams put up some yardage and points. The Tigers are every bit as good as the Buckeyes and certainly have a chance to win it outright. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen but we’re all about value and in that regard Clemson is the prudent play.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Chicago -½ +108 over NEW JERSEYFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Regulation only. It may sound like a broken record already but at some point the Devils are going to pay a price for using Martin Brodeur as their #1 goaltender instead of the superior Cory Schneider. New Jersey’s defense has been so good that it has masked Brodeur’s shortcomings but an elite team like the Blackhawks, coming off a loss to the Islanders, is precisely the type of team that will expose him. The Devils have allowed the least amount of shots on net per game and that is the only reason why Brodeur is winning games. However, these Blackhawks are a top outfit in creating chances and burying them and that spells trouble for the Devils netminder.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Chicago has lost back-t0-back games just twice this year. More recently, after a loss to Toronto, the Blackhawks bounced back with a 3-1 win over the Kings the very next night. After a 3-2 OT loss against Vancouver just before the break, Chicago rebounded with a 5-2 win over these same Devils. The Blackhawks hate to lose and they especially hate losing to vastly inferior teams. In the second game of back-to-backs this season, Chicago has not lost in regulation and overall they are 9-1 in those situations. Once again, the fade is on against Brodeur because we’re sticking to our guns in suggesting he’s the slowest goaltender in the NHL.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Tampa Bay -½ +130 over CALGARYFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Regulation only. The Lightning continue to be undervalued because they play in a small market with a small following but this team just refuses to lose. The Lightning’s 12 losses match Boston and Pittsburgh for the fewest losses in the East and they’ve done it with numerous injuries to key personnel. Steven Stamkos is still out but the Bolts have most of their other key players back in the lineup. Tampa just went into Vancouver and defeated the Canucks on Wednesday. The Bolts have won six of their past eight games and have allowed two goals or less in all of six wins. Ben Bishop is among the best goaltenders in the game and that figures to bode extremely well here against the offensively challenged Flames. We’d normally be concerned of a letdown after a big win but these Bolts have proven that they come to play every night.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Calgary has dropped seven of eight and they have scored one lousy goal over its past three games. Two of those losses occurred against Philadelphia and Edmonton, two of the worst defenses in the NHL, yet Calgary managed one goal in six periods against that pair. They now have the unenviable task of playing a shut-down defense and shut-down goaltender when they are pressing big time to score. Calgary, which will not make the playoffs for a fifth straight season, must use the period leading to the trade deadline to determine which assets to hang on to and must maximize its return on those assets deemed expendable. The players are playing in an unstable environment and the effects of the unknown are on full display right now.
I PITY YOUR SAD FUCKING LIFE VIKESFAG THE C&P QUEEN OF THE INTERNET
Pass NBA & CBBFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Dr. Bob
Ohio State (-2½) 41 Clemson 34
I liked Ohio State in this game enough to make them a Best Bet but a suspension to defensive linemen Noah Spence, coupled with the star cornerback Bradley Roby being downgraded to doubtful with a knee injury suffered in the Big 10 Championship game is enough to make me back off a bit. Even with those injuries my math model still leans with Ohio State and the Buckeyes apply to 43-8-2 ATS bowl situation that is based on their upset loss to Michigan State.
Ohio State’s defense was 0.7 yards per play better than average during the regular season, as their 1st unit allowed just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl to an average team but not having top CB Roby and top pass rusher Spence obviously hurts that unit. Roby was #3 on team in tackles, which is very good for a cornerback, while leading the Buckeyes with 16 passes defended while Spence had 8 sacks and 6.5 other tackles for loss. Over the years I’ve studied the affect of defensive injuries on defensive performance and using the combined statistics of those two key defenders would result in a predicted increase of 0.32 yards per play (0.18 yards per rushing play and 0.45 yards per pass play). That difference adds up to 3.4 points, which is a pretty significant number for two defensive players. Ohio State has played one full game (week 1 against Buffalo) and parts of two other games without Roby (against Iowa and Michigan State) and the pass defense was still 0.3 yards per pass play better than average on 73 pass plays without Roby (6.1 yppp against quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense). Now, without Spence rushing the passer the pass defense should be a bit worse than that and Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd can certainly take advantage. Boyd averaged 8.1 yards per pass play in 10 games against FBS foes that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback and I project Boyd at 8.3 yppp in this game. Clemson’s run defense is mediocre (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) and Ohio State’s run defense is still 0.6 yprp better than average even after adjusting for the injuries, so the Tigers are expected to average just 4.5 yprp in this game. Overall I have Clemson racking up 530 yards at 6.6 yppl in this game while controlling the ball for 13 more plays than the Buckeyes are likely to run.
Ohio State’s offense ranked 4th in my ratings this season behind only Florida State, Baylor, and Oregon, averaging 43.8 points on 514 yards at 7.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. That attack was very good early in the season but it got even better at the start of Big 10 play when star RB Carlos Hyde was able to play after serving a 3 game suspension and quarterback Braxton Miller returned from an injury that kept him out nearly 3 full games. From week 5 on with both Hyde and Miller the Buckeyes attack averaged 43.6 points on 515 yards at 7.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Hyde ran for 1408 yards at 7.7 yards per run despite missing 3 games while Miller ran for 1121 yards at 8.2 yards per rushing play while averaging 7.2 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average QB). Clemson’s defense is pretty good at 0.7 yppl better than average but they gave up 51 points on 565 yards at 7.9 yppl to Florida State and 35 points on 551 yards at 8.0 yppl to Georgia, whoare the only two elite offensive teams that the Tigers faced this season. Ohio State, meanwhile, scored 40 points or more against every team expect the 3 best defensive teams that they faced (Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan State) and averaging 30 points against those 3 strong defenses is still very good given that those 3 teams would combine to allow just 16.7 points to an average offensive team. Clemson’s defense isn’t good enough to slow down the Buckeyes and my math model projects 504 yards at 7.3 yppl for Ohio State in this game.
Clemson is projected to gain more yards in this game but Ohio State’s 7.3 yppl to 6.6 yppl advantage is actually more significant than the total yards edge in favor of the Tigers and the Buckeyes have a 3.2 points advantage in special teams and a slight edge in projected turnovers. Overall the math favors Ohio State by 4 points with a total of 74.8 points even with the 3.4 points applied for Ohio State’s defensive attrition. That’s not much line value but Ohio State does apply to a 43-8-2 ATS bowl bounce-back situation. I still like Ohio State to cover even with their defense at less than full strength, but not enough to recommend them as a Best Bet anymore. I think the better play is on the over, as I project 75 points based on projected stats and 76 points based on a compensated and adjusted points model. I’ll lean with Ohio State and I’ll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 71 points or less and a lean at higher than 71 points.
WunderdogFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Golden State at AtlantaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Golden State -3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Everyone was wondering what happened to the Golden State team that looked so impressive in the playoffs a year ago. They are getting their answer right now, as the Warriors are on a seven-game winning streak and are look really good. Atlanta is one of three teams in the East that has a winning record at 18-14. Curry and Lee have provided an inside-out combination that has been lethal, as Curry scored 36 while dishing out 12 assists, while Lee poured in 32 and grabbed 14 boards against the Heat. Golden State has won the last three in this series, including a 115-93 win in Atlanta last season. Golden State is now 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 on the road vs. a team with a winning home record, and the Hawks stand at just 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 on two days of rest. Play on Golden State.
Dr. Bob College Football
Oklahoma State (-2½) 33 Missouri 29
Both of these teams lost their final game and were denied a conference championship but Missouri may be a bit more disappointed since a win over Auburn in the SEC Championship game likely would have put the Tigers in the national championship game while Oklahoma State simply would have been in a different major bowl game. Regardless of motivation my math model pegs Oklahoma State as the better team. Missouri has a bit of an edge offensively but Oklahoma State’s defense is clearly better than the Tigers’ stop unit and that could be the difference in what should be a competitive game.
The Cowboys are a good offensive team, averaging 38 points on 448 yards at 6.1 yards per play in 11 games against FBS teams that would combine to allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. That attack improved a bit midseason when Desmond Roland (4.7 ypr) took over for Jeremy Smith (3.8 ypr) as the featured running back in week 9 and Clint Chelf became the full time quarterback in place of J.W. Walsh. The compensated passing numbers of Chelf (7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp) and Walsh are about the same but Chelf proved to be a better runner (368 yards at 7.8 yards per running play) and the offense rates at 0.8 yppl better than average currently. That unit has an advantage over a good but not great Missouri defense that has yielded 5.4 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. My math model projects 445 yards at 5.9 yppl for the Cowboys in this game.
Missouri’s offense was 1.2 yppl better than average this season (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and the Tigers are actually a bit worse with quarterback James Franklin back. Franklin missed some games in the middle of the season and backup Maty Mauk, while not nearly as accurate a passer, made more big plays and averaged more yards per pass play against tougher competition than Franklin. Franklin still posted good numbers, averaging 7.2 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback, and Missouri’s attack is still 1.1 yppl better than average with Franklin at the controls (just 0.1 yppl worse than their season average). Oklahoma State’s defense was very good this season, allowing just 4.9 yppl to FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Cowboys’ defense is just as good as Missouri’s offense and the math projects 423 yard at 5.5 yppl for the Tigers in this game.
Overall the math model favors Oklahoma State by 3 points with a total of 62.6 points and the adjusted points model favors the Cowboys by 3 ½ points with a total of 60.9 points. A negative 12-38-1 ATS bowl situation applies to Missouri, so I’ll lean with Oklahoma State at -2 ½ or less and I have no opinion on the total.
Erin RynningFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Toronto at WashingtonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto +3FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
The Raptors have been a catalyst for my personal service plays that are currently on a sweet 16-5 76% ATS run. They’ve covered 8 of their last 10 games and there’s absolutely nothing fluky about it. Straight-up the Raptors own an identical record including wins over the Mavericks, Thunder and Pacers. Of course, their recent run correlates with the trade of the vastly overrated Rudy Gay. Gay played his last game with Toronto on December 6th against the Phoenix Suns. Since the blockbuster trade the Raptors have won 9 of 12, including six on the road. This team is showing ER staples to pointspread success in the NBA with toughness, defense and chemistry, as the marketplace is slow to adjust as they overachieve to their talent. Meanwhile, the Wizards have yet to find the spark that was vital in their winning ways in mid-season last year. Remember, after being hampered by injuries last season, the Wizards went on an incredible pointspread tear when finally healthy. Starting on December 28th last season the Wizards covered 14 of 16 games; ironically that run vividly reminds me of the current Raptors play. The Raptors match-up well in this contest as point guard Kyle Lowry and his bulldog ways figure to at least slow down Wizards point guard John Wall. In addition, DeMar Derozan and Terrance Ross are defending the wing at a high level, which will take away clean looks for the Wizards at the three-point line. The Raptors find themselves in their preferred role tonight on the road as an underdog, and we’ll take the points.