Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee Volunteers -2FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tennessee Volunteers should be a bigger home favorite tonight against the Memphis Tigers. I'll gladly back the Vols at this price as they look to remain unbeaten on their home floor this year.
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Tennessee is off to an 8-3 start this year, which includes a perfect 6-0 home record. Its only losses have come on the road to Oklahoma State, Georgetown and Virginia. It has even beaten a very good Wichita State team as well as Xavier at home this year.
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Memphis comes in overvalued due to its 9-3 start, which features very few impressive wins. Its three losses have comes to Louisville, Minnesota and Virginia Commonwealth, all by 9 points or more. Somehow, the Tigers have yet to play a true road game as this will be their first one tonight. That first true road game is always tough for any team.
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The Vols want revenge from two losses to Memphis last season, including a 99-97 overtime setback on a neutral court. Neither of those losses were at Tennessee last year, so they'll relish this opportunity for payback at home tonight.
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Memphis is 0-6 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 non-conference games. The Vols are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games overall. Bet Tennessee Friday.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma +135 over Texas A&MFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is really about as interesting as it gets when breaking down a bowl game. There’s little doubt that the Sooners feel cheated by the selection process and over the years, teams that have felt hosed have not performed well. Still, the Cotton Bowl is a pretty big deal too and Oklahoma appears to be very much focused.
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Since beating the Crimson Tide and subsequently Johnny Manziel winning the Heisman Trophy, the Aggies are getting a little too much hype and everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. That’s the best time to jump off. They Aggies are too reliant on Manziel, whose dicey track record against ranked foes (the 5.1 yards per attempt is the most disquieting of a whole set of ugly numbers) doesn’t exactly entice us to lay the points. We’re also not impressed with the way sport's latest leading man has spent these past few weeks. Also note that the Aggies are 0-4 at this venue while the Sooners are 4-0 in games played in Texas this year. Too much hype combined with the way Manziel has conducted himself since winning the Heisman has us all over this underdog.
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Brooklyn/WASHINGTON Under 185FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For the Wizards, there's a massive, offensive talent void outside of John Wall, who hasn't even played this season. Washington is on a league-worst pace and must rely on their solid rebounding (6th in the NBA) and their defense (10th) to give them what little hope they have of winning. Over its last seven games, Washington has played in games with combined scores of 168, 183, 171, 164 and 170.
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The Nets aren’t more efficient but they’re not much quicker, as their pace ranks second last in the NBA just ahead of Washington. In other words, we have the league’s two slowest paced clubs going at it and it would be unreasonable to expect either one of them to go off for more than 90. Expect a lot of missed shots, a slow pace and this total to not be threatened.
Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oklahoma/ Texas A&M Under 73: Much like last night's game I will look to the Under in this one. Much like Oregon last night, when people think of Texas A&M all they think about is Offense, but this team knows how to play some defense as well. They use a bend but don't break style of defense as they have allowed 389 ypg, but just 22.5 ppg and have allowed just one team more than 30 points this year and that was La Tech, the highest scoring team in the land. The Sooner defense has struggled down the stretch, but they are a bit healthier for this one and with extra prep time I'm sure they will have a plan to stop this offense. Overall this defense has allowed 24.2 ppg. Oklahoma's offense has average 40.3 ppg on the year, but vs defenses like Notre Dame and Kansas State they were only able to muster just 13 points in each game and they do face another good defense tonight. These defenses are solid and have extra prep time and I feel that should keep this one in the low 60's at best.
Wunderdog
Houston at Milwaukee
Pick: Houston +1
It has been a tough stretch of games for the Milwaukee Bucks. They played host to Brooklyn and Miami at home, then went to Detroit, and then returning to face the Spurs. Now after all those physical challenges, in comes Houston who is going to put their legs to the test with their frenetic style of offense led by James Harden. The Rockets have it going right now, as they are 9-3 over their last 12 games, averaging 111points per game in their last nine, while at the same time holding five of those opponents to less than 100. The Rockets’ pace translates well vs. the Eastern Conference teams where they are 13-3 ATS in their last 16, while the Bucks continue to flounder vs. the NBA Southwest where they are 0-8 ATS in their last eight. Play on Houston.
John Ryan
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards
The simulator shows a high probability that Washington will lose this game by fewer than five points. Even when Brooklyn was the Nets, they did not do well against the weakest teams in the NBA. They have posted a 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) mark when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Moreover, the pace of play as projected by the total is not in Brooklyns favor noting they are just 9-24 ATS (-17.4 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Washington has just four wins on the season, but they are starting to play better team basketball and have covered three of the last four games. Washington is a better rebounding team and this is a critical part of any home dog looking to get an upset win. Strong rebounding on the defensive end minimizes an opponents second chance scoring opportunities and this will be a major factor in Washington covering this spread.
Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah vs. PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Suns have absolutely owned the Jazz, winning eight of the last ten meetings between these two teams on any floor. That includes a comfortable 99-84 Phoenix victory when these two teams met just three weeks ago; a game that the Suns led by double digits after the first quarter and controlled thereafter.
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There’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result tonight. The betting markets haven’t fully grasped the impact of the Mo Williams injury for Utah. Sure, the Jazz are 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS without him for the last five games – nothing significant there. But this is not as good of a team with career backups Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson splitting time at the point, as opposed to a former All Star. And facing a quick opposing point guard like Goran Dragic is likely to make the Jazz feel Williams absence that much more tonight.
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It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Jazz whenever they hit the highway; a team that consistently has failed to respond well to adversity in hostile environments; just 6-13 SU, 6-12-1 ATS on the highway this year. Meanwhile the Suns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 at home against opponents with a losing road record; beating the teams they are supposed to beat; primed to continue that pointspread winning streak tonight. Take the Suns.
Bruce MarshallFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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George Washington vs. GeorgiaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: George WashingtonREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia has no reliable scorers to count upon other than explosive soph G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (17.5 ppg; next highest scorer at 7.8 ppg) and its starting lineup has resembled a merry-go-round. So it's no wonder that Mark Fox’s Bulldog team has been having trouble cracking the 60-point barrier most nights and has covered just one of four tries as chalk. Which might not be enough to pull away from Mike Lonergan’s resourceful GWU, which has been tapped by A-10 sources as a team to watch in the loop as 6-9 Villanova transfer Isaiah Armwood (13.3 ppg; 54% from floor) provides recently-absent inside scoring punch.
Steve Janus
Atlanta Hawks -1.5
The Hawks are showing solid value as a small road favorite against the Pistons tonight. Detroit is being overvalued due to their current three game winning streak, which started off with a 109-99 win over the Heat. All three wins for the Pistons have come at home,yet they are still just 9-8 on their home floor this season. Atlanta is a respectable 9-5 on the road and have won three straight over Detroit dating back to last season. Considering the Hawks are 13-3 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, this is definitely worth a small play.
Black Widow
Toronto Raptors -6.5
The Toronto Raptors are quietly one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Raptors have won eight of their last nine games overall with six of those victories coming by 7 points or more. In fact, Toronto is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall. Sacramento is also on a nice run, but I believe it is in for a big step up in competition here against a team that simply cannot be tamed right now. Plus, the Kings are just 2-13 on the road this year, getting outscored by 9.8 points/game. Toronto is a solid 8-5 at home this year where it is limiting opponents to just 94.4 points/game. The Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. Take Toronto and lay the points.
Mark Franco
Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Brooklyn Nets
The Brooklyn Nets could have folded after an embarrassing loss at San Antonio. Instead, they regrouped and handed the Oklahoma City Thunder their largest home loss of the season on Wednesday. Brooklyn will take a step down in competition when it continues its road trip at the Washington Wizard. The Wizards own the worst record and lowest-scoring offense in the NBA and are riding a three-game losing streak. Washington has been without point guard John Wall (knee) all season and is missing his backup, A.J. Price, due to a fractured hand. The Nets will come to play tonight and get the road cover. The Nets are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest. The Wizards are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Brandon Lee
Houston Rockets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks
I believe oddsmakers have set this line knowing that the public will jump all over the Rockets at this price. Houston is just 5-8 on the road this season, while the Bucks are 9-7 at home. Look for Milwaukee to squeak out a win on their home floor!
King Creole
Portland +9
Opening line came in at Memphis -9.5 pts. It's gone down a HALF point to -9... so play that doggie as soon as you can. Portland seems to have an uncanny knack for playing the Grizzlies TIGHT (or winning EASILY).... particularly as of late. The TRAIL BLAZERS have gone 10-2-1 ATS on the road vs Memphis since the 2005 season. And in the last 4 meetings (at ANY site), the BLAZERS have gone a PERFECT 4-0 ATS... with average margin of +8.8 total points per game.
Portland's been inconsistent as of late. But that inconsistently provides us with plenty of value tonight. After UPSETTING the NY Knicks on New Years Day (won 105-100 as dogs of +9.5), the Blazers turned around and 's**t the bed' the following day... losing by 23 points to the poor Toronto Raptors.
10-1 ATS since 2006: All NBA road teams (PORT) playing off a SU road loss of 20 > pts to the Toronto Raptors.
So far THIS season, Friday UNDERDOGS have done pretty well... when playing off a loss (like Portland) vs any opponent off a SU win (like Memphis).
10-1-1 ATS so far this year: All FRIDAY underdogs (BLAZERS) playing off a double-digit SU loss... versus any opponent off a SU win (Memphis).
Memphis' last victim was the Boston Celtics. they went into Bean Town on January 2nd and beat the Celtics 93 to 83.
2-12 ATS last 3 years: All home favs of -9 > pts (Grizz) playing off a non-conference SU road favorite win of 10 > pts.
This is Memphis' ONLY home game.... sandwiched in between BB road games.
0-6 ATS last 3 years: All NBA Conference home teams (Memphis) playing AFTER BB road games (and a SUATS win)... and BEFORE playing BB road games in their next two.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Tennessee/ Memphis Under 129: After what I wrote above let's hope that the Vols don't suddenly decide to turn this into a track meet. They are NOT an uptempo team. they are a poor shooting team and they play excellent defense. That should not translate into a low scoring game. Tennessee comes in allowing just 56.4 ppg on 38.4% shooting this year, while at home they have allowed just 56.3 ppg on 37.8% shooting. Memphis has scored 74 ppg on the year, but this is their first true road game and in their 3 games away from home (neutral courts) they have averaged just 64 ppg. Memphis does allow 65.1 ppg on the year, but this Tennessee team is a poor shooting one (42.2%) and they have really struggled to score of late, averaging just 60.5 ppg on 39.5% shooting in their last 5 games. I see a slow paced game that will struggle to hit 120 points.
Wofford/ Tulane Under 115: This one has ugly snoozer written all over it. Wofford has been pathetic on offense this year, especially on the road. The Terriers did score 94 points at Jacksonville, but if you take out that game then they have averaged just 52 ppg in their other 8 road games. Tonight I don't expect their scoring to increase as the Green Wave has allowed just 51.3 ppg on 38.3% shooting at home. Tulane has allowed 50 or less in 4 of their last 7 games and will most likely hold the Terriers in the 40's in this one as well. That means that Tulane has to score 67-70 or more in this one for it to go over and I just don't see that happening. They have put up more than 69 points in just 3 of their last 9 games and the Terriers have allowed just 59.8 ppg overall and 63.6 ppg on the road. I look for a 59-50 type of final here.
Charlie Sports
Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder
The (15-18) Philadelphia 76ers of the Eastern Conference Atlantic will take on the (24-7) Oklahoma City Thunder of the Western Conference Northwest division in 2013 NBA action. Philadelphia has lost the last 7 meetings in the series straight up and have also lost 3 of their last 4 Against The Spread. Oklahoma City is 4-6 ATS their last 10 overall, but suffered a rare home loss to Brooklyn on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City gets the home cover.
Nelly
Toronto Raptors - over Sacramento Kings
The Raptors have delivered a surprising surge with wins in eight of the last nine games. Many wins came against lousy teams but this team has growing confidence and the Raptors have won five consecutive home games. Sacramento is facing a third consecutive road game in four days and after a narrow win in Cleveland on Wednesday the Kings could be a bit flat for this game. Sacramento is just 2-13 S/U on the road this season and while this line may be inflated this is a series where the home team has won in eight of the last 10 meetings.