Dennis Macklin
Valparaiso -13
We're going to play Valpo here even with the dicey number. Cleveland State is just a train wreck losing their last four Div-I tilts by a combined (all by 17+) 98 points. They've lost their last three visits to Valpo by 6-7-7 with significantly better teams. The 10-5 Crusaders aren't all that much but they are 8-0 outside the the Top 200 and have taken great pleasure in hammering the likes of Georgia Southern and Northern Illinois. Like the spot too! Valpo (-8.5) lost to Ill-Loyola in last but you can easily give them a mulligan as they were off road win AT Murray State in their prior game. This one is EZ if the Crusaders take care of their business.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is now at 63-40-2, and tonight I want to improve that number with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA, catching a small number at Charlotte against the Bobcats.
This is a good spot for the Cavs to snag a win, as they come in sporting a 20-8 all-time mark against the Bobcats, and that includes the last four meetings with Charlotte. Plus, with the Bobcats ending an 18-game losing streak Monday with a 91-81 victory at Chicago, I think their guard might be down and they could be a bit relaxed now that the skid is over.
Charlotte has lost 10 straight at home, so beating the 'Cats on their own court shouldn't be a big deal. The Cavaliers are going to come in looking to avenge a tough home loss on Wednesday, when it failed to hold on to a tiny lead, before falling, 97-94, to Sacramento.
The Cavs are in on ATS win streaks of 5-1 against Southeast teams and 4-1 on the road, while the Bobcats are in on spread slides of 7-20 against Central division teams, 1-5 against Eastern Conference foes and 4-10 overall.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Chuck O'Brien
I know the Phoenix Suns are out for their 2,000th win as a franchise tonight, but unfortunately the Utah Jazz are going to spoil that milestone in front of the Fridat night crowd. These two have already met twice this season, with the home team winning both times. Now it's time for a road team to step up.
The Jazz roll in with a load of confidence after their lopsided 106-84 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night. And yes, while that game was on their own floor in Salt Lake City, where they're 10-4, I think this is the right time for the Jazz to turn things around and start finding their winning ways on the highway.
The Jazz have covered 12 of their last 17 in Phoenix, and I think the oddsmakers are giving us a clear indicator who the right side is with the line being so low. Take the road pup.
2♦ UTAH
Craig Davis
Last pair of nights I have given you free play winners, Ohio State on Wednesday night, New York Knicks last night.
Free play of the day on the OKC Thunder to bounce back from that horrific home loss to Brooklyn Wednesday night and absolutely destroy Philly.
Vegas isn't stupid... they realize how good the Thunder are, but they also realize how much better they are at home. As it happens, though, OKC played one of their worst games of the year in a 110-93 blowout loss to the Nets and that hasn't been sitting well with OKC over the last 48 hours.
Kevin Durant NEVER gets thrown out of games and almost never gets called for a tech foul, so to see him lose his cool like that with under two minutes remaining showed you his level of frustration... not only with the officiating but also the situation of his team playing so poorly.
No, OKC has never been known as a defensive juggernaut, but to give up 110 points to a .500 team at home isn't something they're used to doing... and that's one of many reasons I believe they'll come out with a different focus and intensity tonight.
Not only that, but the Thunder have dominated the Sixers of late, and there's no reason to think anything differently tonight.
In their last meeting they pulled out a 116-109 overtime victory Nov. 24 behind 37 points from Kevin Durant and 30 from Russell Westbrook. KD is averaging over 30 PPG over his last six games vs. Philly while Westbrook is scoring just under 28 PPG in his last four in the series.
The 76ers (15-18 on the season) scored fewer than 90 points for the third time in four contests Wednesday night as they fell to the Phoenix Suns.. 95-89. Yikes. They aren't getting any consistent scoring from anyone other than Jrue Holiday, and even that comes and goes occasionally.
Philly has dropped six straight vs. OKC and failed to cover the number in six of the last seven. I think it's fair to say that with everything considered, the Thunder should blast Philly by at least 15 tonight.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Jeff Benton
Freebie winner on the Knicks last night.
Friday freebie winner is the Thunder over the Sixers.
Philly's longest road trip of the year is now at six in a row, and the 76ers stand at 2-4 straight up and 3-3 against the spread. Tough spot for the Sixers tonight, as Oklahoma City suffered a rare home loss on Wednesday to the Nets, as the Thunder were humiliated by 17-points on their home floor!
That was just OKC's third home loss in 19 games, so chances Philly pulls off the upset are slim-and-none, and slim just walked out the door.
Can Philadelphia at least cover? That is doubtful as well, as Oklahoma City has won the last seven series meetings, and they have covered in six of those seven victories.
With Philly still having to conclude this road stretch with a stop in San Antonio tomorrow night, and the Thunder looking to take out their frustrations from Wednesday on someone, this appears to be the wrong time and the wrong place to back the underdog.
Take OKC big.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Chris Jordan
The last time I gave you a free pick in the NBA, I told you the Detroit Pistons were the value on Dec. 26, catching +8 points from the Hawks in Atlanta. The two battled into double overtime, and though the Pistons lost they covered for me. Well my free pick for tonight is going to be on the home underdog Pistons, against visiting Atlanta.
And before these two even tip-off, I think the Motown boys ought to walk over to the Hawks' bench and thank them.
Ever since that double-OT loss, the Pistons have enjoyed their longest winning streak of the season - currently at three games. Whether or not it was that loss, I can't be sure, but the Pistons have done an about face and are certainly playing better.
Detroit's offense has been clicking of late, shooting 52.4 percent and averaging 102.7 points during this win streak. And this isn't just a fluke with a couple of stars stepping up. Even Detroit's bench is averaging 47.0 points since Dec. 28, ranking fourth in the league.
Atlanta had dropped 11 of 14 at the window after an ATS cover, while the Pistons are on ATS runs of 4-0 against Southeast teams and 4-1 against Eastern Conference foes.
2♦ DETROIT
Matt Rivers
NBA free winners the past two nights - Phoenix on Wednesday, Minnesota last night!
Free play for Friday in the NBA on the Nets as they play in Washington against the Wizards.
Brooklyn has gotten a little bit of a bump after parting ways with Avery Johnson, as the Nets come to D.C. having won three of four since letting Johnson go. That includes an impressive win at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. I expect them to handle their business against a Washington team that still owns just four outright wins this season, and are currently mired in a 1-11 straight up slide their last dozen games!
Series numbers show Brooklyn with wins and covers in two of the last three meetings. Just see no good reason to back the Wizards tonight in the home dog role. Brooklyn should be able to handle Washington tonight, then head home for another potential win tomorrow night against another bad team - Sacramento Kings slated for Saturday night.
Go with the Nets as momentum is rolling once again in Brooklyn.
5♦ BROOKLYN
Harry Bondi
LA CLIPPERS (-4.5) over LA Lakers
Since having their amazing 17-game winning streak snapped, the Clippers have lost two straight and have looked horrendous in the process. But that only provides us some line value here. The bottom line is that right now the Clippers are one of the top teams in the NBA and the Lakers are just an average team. The Clippers already beat their in-city rival by 10 points earlier this year and they are 15-3 at the Staples Center this season and have outscored the opposition by an average of 18 points. The Lakers, meanwhile, are 1-5 as an underdog this year, further proving they have been overvalued by the oddsmaker. Lay the short number!
Dave Essler
Wofford +9
I have too much respect for the SOS that Wofford has played, and clearly there are points built into this line because of Tulane's great win over Alabama. Tulane has simply NOT been tested, and I can see them coming in a bit over confident after the 'Bama win. They've got a very short bench, which means if they get in much foul trouble they've got inexperience backups, and Wofford will live and die from behind the arc. If Tulane has a weakness, it may well be on defense. Their collective numbers are marginal for a team that really hasn't faced anyone in the Top 200, other than 'Bama (one game does not a season make) and G-Tech who destroyed them. Wofford beat Xavier on the road, so surely they can stay well within this number. The UVA loss was predictable. since UVA has one of the stingiest defenses in the nation, so after playing the Cavaliers this game should seem simple, and because of each teams' last two games, this line is as high as it is, not because of the talent differential.
Hollywood Sports
Rockets at Bucks
Prediction: Over
Milwaukee (16-14) has lost two games in a row after their 117-110 loss to San Antonio on Wednesday as a 5.5-point favorite -- and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a loss. The Bucks have also played 5 straight games Over the Total following a point spread loss. The Over is also 5-2-1 in Milwaukee's last 8 games after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. And the Bucks have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. Houston (18-14) has played 4 straight games Over the Total against an opponent that scored at least 100 points in their last game. The Rockets have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams that allowed at least 100 points in their last contest. Houston comes off a 104-92 win against New Orleans on Wednesday -- and they have also played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a double-digit victory. Take the Over in this one.