Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 6

Marc Lawrence

Butler at Wright State
Play: Wright State

A college hoops clash in the Horizon League tips off when Wright State hosts defending champion Butler at the Nutter Center in Dayton. While both teams are off to slow starts this season the fact of the matter is the Raiders have cashed in 14 of the last 20 games in this series, including 8-2 SU and ATS on this court. Look for more of the same here this evening as the Bulldogs lose their bite once again tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Wright State.

Scott Spreitzer

Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns

Phoenix owns a nice scheduling advantage in this one. Portland still goes all out to beat the Lakers, especially in "Rip City" and they did so again last night. Portland is one of the best in the league on the offensive end, averaging nearly 103 ppg. But they're middle-of-the-pack in most key defensive categories and they do tend to turn the ball over too often. I expect Phoenix to get after the Blazers on the defensive end attempting to take advantage of a potentially weary and less than focused squad. Phoenix held Dallas to 41% shooting in their most recent game, but allowed the Mavs too many second chance opportunities - just a game removed from dominating the glass in a win over Golden State. The Suns had a day to work on the effort and I expect a strong performance at both ends tonight. I'm taking the points with the Suns on Friday.

Rob Vinciletti

Valparaiso vs. Detroit
Play: Valparaiso +6

Detroit is the favorite here in this one, However I cant back then with an 0-6 record vs winning teams this season. Valpo has some solid numbers in this one. They are 5-0 straight up as a road dog from +3.5 to +6 and have covered 10 of 13 on Fridays. When they play with 5 of 6 days rest they are 16-2 ats, 9-1 vs losing teams and have covered 12 of the last 16 in January games. Look for Valparaiso to get the cash.

Bryan Power

Atlanta @ Charlotte
PICK: Charlotte

Bad spot for the visiting Hawks, who played three overtimes last night against the Heat & lost, despite not facing either LeBron James or Dwyane Wade. That makes them a very shaky road favorite tonight in Charlotte. The Bobcats won for the 1st time since the opener Wednesday night, putting up a season high 118 points in Madison Square Garden against the Knicks. They shot 55% for the game. Hawks head coach Larry Drew called Thursday's loss to the Heat a "total mental letdown." This team has always had questionable heart and I wonder how they'll respond from such a disappointing defeat. My guess is "not well." Note that they actually trailed the Heat for much of the game Thursday night. Atlanta has never had much success here in Charlotte, going 3-11 SU/ATS all-time, including a 96-85 loss late last season. In addition to playing for the second night in BTB's, this is also the third game in five nights for the Hawks and fourth in six nights. Bobcats make it BTB wins!

Sean Murphy

New York Rangers @ Pittsburgh Penguins
PICK: Pittsburgh Penguins

We missed the mark fading the Rangers in the Winter Classic, but won't hesitate to take another shot here.

New York found its way to top spot in my NHL Power Rankings this week, but its by no means invincible. For evidence of that, look no further than the Rangers 4-1 loss in Washington last week.

While New York is coming off a hard-fought 3-2 overtime win over the Panthers last night, the Penguins have been idle since Saturday.

While the Pens have dropped back-to-back games, it's not as if they've played all that poorly. In fact, they've outshot their last two opponents by a combined 56-44 margin.

Despite suffering a 4-2 loss to the Flyers in their most recent home game, the Pens remain a solid 11-4-2 at the Consol Energy Center this season. Their special teams have been outstanding at home, converting at a 19% clip with the man advantage while killing off 92.2% of opponents' power plays.

This is a game that Pittsburgh has had circled on its calendar since dropping a 4-3 decision in New York back on November 29th. In that game, the Pens jumped ahead 1-0 after one period, but came unglued in the second frame, allowing four consecutive goals.

After Friday's game, the Rangers will get a well-earned break in the form of three days off. New York has faced a hectic schedule over the last month, with the HBO cameras documenting their every move for the 24/7 series. I'm expecting somewhat of a letdown in this spot, while the Pens bring their best effort.

Stephen Nover

Atlanta @ Charlotte
PICK: Charlotte

Mentally, the Atlanta Hawks probably won't look past lowly Charlotte tonight after losing to Miami on Thursday despite the Heat missing LeBron James and Dwayne Wade.

Physically, though, the Hawks are going to have a difficult time even getting out of bed.

As is often the case with NBA regular-season games, it's not who you are playing but when you are playing them. That certainly applies here.

Of course the Hawks are more talented than the Bobcats. It's not close. But the Bobcats' favorable situation in this matchup trumps talent and makes Charlotte a play.

This game marks the Hawks' eighth game in 11 days! Atlanta lost to Miami in triple overtime last night. The game didn't finish until close to midnight.

Then on Saturday the Hawks will host Chicago in a big revenge matchup. The Bulls edged the Hawks by two points this past Tuesday. The Bulls also knocked the Hawks out of the playoffs last season in a spirited six-game series.

So if the Hawks are going to tank any game it's the one tonight against the Bobcats.

Charlotte didn't play on Thursday. The Bobcats played their finest game of the season on Wednesday defeating New York, 118-110, on the road. The Bobcats shot a season-high 53.3 percent from the field. Boris Diaw, a former Hawk, had a season-best 27 points.

Charlotte's victory snapped a four-game losing streak. The Bobcats enter this matchup with confidence. Not only are they off a well-played victory, but they have defeated Atlanta 11 of the past 14 times at Time Warner Cable Arena.

Jim Feist

Warriors vs Lakers
Pick: Under

Golden State isn't quite the powerhouse offensive team of year's past mainly because of injuries to some key offensive players. The under is 5-0 in the Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Pacific, and 8-2 under in their last 10 vs. the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Lakers have a new style under coach Mike Brown, focusing on defense like when he ran the Cavaliers. The under is 5-1 in the Lakers last 6 home games. Play the Warriors/Lakers Under the total.

BANG THE BOOK

Kansas State Wildcats vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-7.5, 63)

The Big 12’s Kansas State Wildcats square-off against the Arkansas Razorbacks, from the SEC this Friday night in this season’s Cotton Bowl from Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game is set to get underway at 8 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

Kansas State rose to No.8 in the country with an impressive 10-2 straight-up campaign that included losses to only Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. It was a profitable 9-3 against the spread and the total went ‘over’ in eight of its 12 games. What was especially impressive was the fact it won six games SU as an underdog.

The Wildcats’ offensive attack featured a duel threat at quarterback in Collin Klein. He only threw for 1745 yards this season, but led the team in rushing with 1,099 yards on 293 carries. As a whole, the team averaged 33.1 points a game, while giving up 27.8 points on defense.

Arkansas ended the season 10-2 SU overall and a hard-earned 6-2 SU in SEC play. Its only two setbacks this season were to the top two teams in the nation and it recorded victories against three other ranked opponents. The Razorbacks went 7-5 ATS and the total went ‘over’ in eight of the 12 games.

This team averaged 37.4 points a game behind a passing offense that racked-up 307.8 yards a game. Tyler Wilson stepped-up for the departed Ryan Mallett and threw for 3,422 yards and 22 touchdowns. Jarius Wright was his favorite target with 66 receptions for 1,029 yards and 11 TD’s.

Best Sports Handicappers On The Net! Check Out BTB Cappers Here

The Wildcats are 0-5 in their last five bowl games, but 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as underdogs. The total has gone ‘over’ in 16 of their last 21 games overall.

The Razorbacks are 0-4 ATS in their last four bowl games, but 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Big 12. The total has stayed ‘under’ in their last eight bowls, but has gone ‘over’ in their last five games overall.

Both these teams have shown the ability to rise to the occasion in big games this year, but the Razorbacks are far more battle-tested. None the less, stick with Kansas State to find a way to keep this a one-touchdown game to cover with the 7.5 points.

PICK: Arkansas

David Banks

Kansas St / Arkansas Over

The Big 12 locks horns with the SEC in the 2012 Cotton Bowl on Friday night when the Kansas State Wildcats (10-2, 9-3 ATS) and Arkansas Razorbacks (10-2, 7-5 ATS) renew their rivalry for the first time since 1967; kick-off from Big D is set to go live at 8:00 ET with ESPN & ESPN3.com covering the live broadcasts.

Reinsert head coach Bill Snyder as the leader of the program and expect to once again be successful. That has exactly been the case for the Hall of Fame coach who has coached his kids to 6-6, 7-6, and 10-2 records since retaking the reins of the program back in 2009. Manhattan was privy to the Wildcats best season since 2003 this year, as the Wildcats once again produced a double-digit winning campaign and finds itself back in a BCS Bowl. The teams overall success hinges on the ability of QB Collin Klein to do major damage with his legs, and when called for, beat opposing defenses with his arm when they are forced to cheat. The junior QB only threw for 1745 yards and sported a TD/INT ratio of 12/5, but where he was most lethal was on the ground where he rushed for 1099 yards and a whopping 26 TDs. With the Hogs surrendering a robust 174.3 YPG rushing (#80), look for the Wildcats 25th ranked rushing attack (193.7 YPG) to be the highlighted facet of the teams offensive attack. K-State went 4-1 SU & a perfect 5-0 ATS away from Manhattan in the regular season.

If not for LSU and Alabama both residing in the SEC West, the Arkansas Razorbacks would have represented the division in the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. Unfortunately, both the Tigers and Crimson Tide were the only two teams that managed to topple the Hogs this season. That said; head coach Bobby Petrinos kids still churned out another 10 win regular season effort, and have the folks in Fayetteville thrilled to head back to the Cotton Bowl for the second time in the last four years. The hope this time around is that the Razorbacks are good enough to put forth a much better showing after getting plastered by Missouri the first time around. Arkansas will look to answer Kansas States big play running game with its potent aerial assault led by junior QB Tyler Wilson who threw for 3422 yards at 8.41 yards per attempt. He threw 22 TDs to just six picks and is the ringleader of the nations 13th ranked passing attack (307.8 YPG). With the Wildcats defense very much so porous against the pass (#105 at 267.2 YPG), look for pigskins to fill the night air on a consistent basis. Arkansas split its four true road games but failed to cover the closing number on each occasion.

Kansas State checks in with impressive 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS records the L/8 times it went off the board as the decided underdog, but the program has failed to cover each of its L/5 bowl games. Arkansas has won and covered each of its L/3 against Big 12 opposition and stands 12-3 ATS the L/15 times it was favored, but has also failed to cover each of its L/4 second season tussles.

Larry Ness

Charlotte Hornets

The entire league was aware that this year's "compacted" season was going to contain some rough stretches. The Atlanta Hawks are in the midst of a grueling stretch in which they play EIGHT games over 11 days, concluding with a visit from the Bobcats next Thursday. Tonight, those very same Bobcats host the Hawks, who are already playing their FOURTH game in five days. That includes them losing a three-overtimes in a nationally televised game last night on TNT, 116-109 to the Heat. The situation couldn't be more perfect for the Bobcats in this one. Charlotte matched up well vs the Hawks last year, splitting four games (each won once on the others' homecourt), while covering THREE of the four. I've never seen any indication that MJ really knows what he's doing (now that he's in management) but I must admit, TY's Charlotte team "looks better." Augustin (16.2-3.7-7.3) is going to be a solid PG for years plus UConn rookie Walker (9.2-3.2 APG) is showing early promise. Gerald Henderson, a third-year player from Duke did little his first season, made some improvement last year (9.6 PPG) and this season, has blossomed at shooting guard (15.8-5.0). Two players who did little while with Okla City, former Indiana Hoosier DJ White (a 6-9 forward) and former Ohio St Buckeye Bryon Mullens (a 7-0 center), have both seemingly found a home in the Tar Heel state. White is averaging 10.8-6.0 and Mullens, 10.7 PPG. In Maggette (12.2-6.2) and Diaw (11.2-5.7-7.2), the Hornets have two excellent all-around forwards. Unfortunately, Maggette may miss here but I'm still taking the rested Hornets, coming off an impressive 118-110 win at New York on Wednesday (Charlotte shot a season-high 53.3 percent from the floor overall, including 7-of-11 three-pointers) over a sure-to-be fatigued Hawks team.

Matt Fargo

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +7

Cleveland has been a very hot and cold team this season. We played against the Cavaliers on Wednesday in Toronto and that paid off with a Raptors win as Cleveland shot just 29.6 percent from the floor including 30.4 percent from long range as it amassed a season low 77 points. The Cavaliers are now 1-2 on the but could be 2-1 as one of those losses came in overtime against the Pacers. This is the second game of a seven-game roadtrip and it is arguably the last winnable game until the finale at Charlotte.

The Timberwolves have had a favorable early schedule with five of their first six games taking place at home but they have not been able to take advantage. Granted the opposition has been brutal as they were underdogs in their first five games but last time out they were the chalk against Memphis and still managed to lose. Now Minnesota is favored for just the seventh time in the past calendar year and it is the most it has been favored by over that stretch.

As mentioned, the Cavaliers were dismal from long range against Toronto but we should get a better effort from them here. Prior to that game, they went 10-21 (47.6 percent) against Charlotte which came right after going 16-26 (61.5 percent) in their previous game against the Nets. Living and dying by the three-pointer is certainly not a good thing but the good news for us is that shooting poorly in consecutive games is unlikely as the Cavaliers are over 40 percent from behind the arc on the season.

Minnesota has been rarely targeted as the favorite as noted and it is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games as a home favorite between 5.0 and 10.5 points while going 4-11 in its last 15 home games against teams with a losing road record. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points and they have covered eight of their last 10 games against losing teams. Cleveland dominated Minnesota with LeBron in town but is playing with double-revenge after losing both meetings last season.

Steve Janus

Boston Celtics -5½

I have not been impressed at all with the Pacers to start the season. Indiana comes in with a 4-2 record, but those four wins have came against the likes of Detroit, Toronto, Cleveland, and New Jersey. In their two losses they lost at Detroit 88-96 and were blown out at Miami 83-118 against a Heat team that was without Dwayne Wade.

Boston has also played a soft schedule to start the season, but are a perfect 4-0 since Paul Pierce returned to the team after missing the first three games (Boston lost all three games). The Celtics are also 3-0 at home, with all three wins coming by at least 8-points.

The Celtics are 3-1 against the spread in their last four home games against the Pacers. There is simply no reason the Celtics should be favored by only 5.5 points. Last year Boston was favored by 11-points in their only home game against the Pacers, they won that game by 12-points.

Indiana is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, while Boston is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kansas State +9 over ARKANSAS

SEC teams are usually safe bets come playoff time, as they're quality teams that play outstanding defense. Arkansas is a quality team but outstanding defense is something they don't possess. That makes the Razorbacks a big risk laying significant lumber. In its biggest game of the year against LSU, Arkansas allowed 41 points. They allowed 28 or more in four other games this season and they lost the turnover battle five times. By contrast, K-State lost the turnover battle in its season opener against Eastern Kentucky and hasn't lost the turnover battle since. That's a significant stat when deciding whether to lay 9 or take it. Additionally, Bill Snyder coached teams have been gold over the years as a dog and Kansas State is on the verge of being a power in the Big-12 under his tutelage. Snyder is a heady coach that plays field position as good as anyone. The Wildcats defense could get shredded and we're not about to sugarcoat that. Arkansas possesses a high octane passing attack that this Wildcat defense will have trouble slowing down. They'll get their points but so will K-State and they're not the one's spotting a prohibitive number. Unlike Snyder, Razorback coach, Bobby Petrino is not an accomplished Bowl coach and one must also wonder if Arkansas' spirit was broken in that blowout loss to LSU. Play: Kansas State +9 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Indiana +6 over BOSTON

The Celtics started off 0-3 and there were some subsequent questions about how this aging club was going to endure a grueling 120-day schedule. Boston’s instant reply was four straight wins and that seems to have appeased the doubters for the time being. However, a close look shows those four wins came against Washington twice, Detroit and New Jersey, arguably the three worst teams in the Association. In fact, that trio is a combined 3-16 thus far. Boston's other three games (all losses) were to the Knicks on opening night, to Miami and in New Orleans. Thus, the C's have had one tough opponent this season and they were down by double digits most of the way to the Heat. The Pacers will be Boston’s second toughest opponent. Indiana has built itself a solid, deep team that should be able to take advantage of tired opponents on the schedule. The Pacers frontcourt can seriously fill it up. David West, Danny Granger, Paul George, Tyler Hansbrough and Roy Hibbert all should average at or near a point every two minutes this season. This team plays solid defense and they're a group that is likely going to bring a solid (ROI) return on investment throughout the year. They can win this one outright or stay well within this range. Play: Indiana +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Memphis +104 over UTAH

The Jazz have reeled off wins in three of its last four games and that has them grossly overvalued here. Utah went off the rails last season and they're not back on them yet. It's hard to remember now but the Jazz were once 14 games over .500. With the departures of Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams marking a shift in direction, they had the biggest first to second half decline in NBA history, going from 27-14 at the break to 12-29 afterward. In particular, the defense fell off. The Jazz finished 23rd after ranking in the top 10 early and we have yet to see signs that Tyrone Corbin can motivate his troops to play halfway decent defense. The Jazz are set up to be a major force in about three years (Utah has four lottery picks from the past two drafts -- Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter, Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks -- and are likely to have two more, their own and Golden State's in the 2012 draft) but that doesn't help them now. By contrast, the Grizzlies are set up to win now. They've won three of its past four games and have one of the best starting fives in the game. The Grizzlies three losses have come against San Antonio, Chicago and Oklahoma City and that's nothing to be embarassed about. Their three wins have come against Minnesota, Sacramento and Houston and what that proves so far is that they're going to beat the teams that they should beat. This is another one of those games. Play: Memphis +104 (Risking 2 units).