WUNDERDOG
Portland at Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix +2.5
The Suns no longer have the scoring tandem at the top of the rotation they once had, but they have replaced them with depth and go 9-10 deep. Playing an unrested Portland team as a home dog, where they are tough presents value on them in this spot. Portland is off to a 5-1 start, taking advantage of some home cooking where they are 4-0 and averaging over 105 points per game. The road hasn't been as lofty where they are 1-1 with the scoring average slipping to 95.5 ppg - some 10 points less. The Blazers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road, and with a rested Suns team that has quality depth, they will likely be at a lower level against fresh legs in the fourth quarter, making the difference in this one. Play on Phoenix.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Hornets
Play: Denver Nuggets
Denver is a small 4.5 point favorite against New Orleans tonight and they seem slightly under-valued by the books. Denver is having a strong 5-2 SU season while New Orleans has only won two games for a 2-4 SU season. Denver has been very strong against the spread, missing only one cover (6-1 ATS). New Orleans has lost four straight matchups and out of those four, they only covered one game. Look for New Orleans to struggle again tonight and make it five straight losses and miss another cover as small underdogs.
Dave Price
1 Unit Charlotte Bobcats +1.5
It's going to be tough for the Hawks to get up for this one following an emotionally and physically exhausting triple-OT defeat to Miami last night. The Bobcats are a solid 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog, and the Hawks are just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Charlotte. Bet the Bobcats.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Indiana Pacers +6
Good teams with a large public following are overvalued often, especially following an impressive win. Boston has won 4 in a row and is coming off a 19-point win last game. Consider that the Celtics are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following a blowout win of 15 points or more. They have actually lost these contests by an average of 1.7 points. Going back further, we find the Celtics are 18-45-1 ATS in their last 64 games following a win of more than 10 points. Indiana, meanwhile, which will be hungry after laying an egg against Miami, is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points. We'll take the Pacers.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Knicks/Wizards UNDER 200.5
The Wizards are 0-6 mostly because they have struggled to score the basketball. They rank 29th in the league with just 85.2 ppg and have played to the Under in 5 of their first 6 as a result. It is also worth noting that Washington is 16-2 Under in its last 18 games following 4 or more consecutive losses. We have only seen an average of 191.4 total points scored in this situation. Also, the Under is 46-21-1 in the Wizards' last 68 home games. Bet the Under.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers +7
The Minnesota Timberwolves are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers with this line Friday. While they have made some improvements this offseason, it's not really showing up in the win column. It's going to take a lot more time for Minnesota to gel as a team with all of the new additions they have.
The Timberwolves have opened 2-4 this season despite playing five of their first six games at home. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 3-3 despite having little expectations coming into the year. I like what I've seen from the Cavs considering their three wins all came in blowout fashion by double digits. Two of their three losses have been by single-digits.
Minnesota is banged up right now with key players like Jose Barea and Brad Miller out with hamstring and knee injuries, respectively. Also, Anthony Tolliver and Nokola Pekovic are each questionable to play tonight. The Timberwolves are definitely thin right now, while the Cavaliers are near full strength.
The Timberwolves are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 verus dominant rebounding teams - averaging 53 or more rebounds/game. The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Cavs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Minnesota is 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet Cleveland Friday.
Lenny Del Genio
New Jersey Nets at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
Few teams have started the season out as poorly as has New Jersey. After opening the year w/ a win over still winless Washington, the Nets have dropped six in a row, covering the spread only once - when they were catching a generous 11.5 from the linesmakers in Atlanta. They've lost every other game by at least 14 points, including a 19 pt loss last time out at Boston. That saw New Jersey match a season low w/ only 70 points as they have yet to score more than 98 pts in any game this year. Toronto is off BB wins over the Knicks and Cavs (now 3-0 ATS L3) and are playing great defense for 1st year HC Dwane Casey. They held the Cavs to 29.6% shooting on Wednesday in a 92-77 win. That spells bad news for a NJ team averaging just 83.1 PPG and playing on the road for a fifth time in six games. They are 2-6 SU/ATS vs. the Raptors the last eight meetings and remain w/out C Brooke Lopez until next month. Take Toronto.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Atlanta/ Charlotte Over 186.5: Both teams should be a bit tired as they enter this game as the Hawks are off a triple OT game last night, while the Bobcats have played 6 games in 10 days, but i feel it will hurt the defenses more than the offenses. I feel te tired legs could lead to a lot of easy baskets. It does take more energy to play defense than offense. The Hawks haven't that many problems scoring this year as they are 10th, putting up 97 ppg and they should really find plenty of holes in a Charlotte team that is 30th in points allowed (107.5 ppg) and 28th in FG% defense (48.3%). The Bobcats don't defense the three ball that well either as they are 27th in that category, allowing teams to hit 41.5 of their long range shots and the Hawks like the three ball as they are 12th in the league from behind the arc (36.9%). The Charlotte offense is a faced paced offense this year and while the struggled to score in the early part they have picked it up of late, averaging 106 ppg in their last three games. Thos last 3 games for the Bobcats have averaged 221 ppg. Atlanta is tough on defense, but I don't expect them to have the legs to stop Charlotte too much in this one. With two tired teams I see little defense in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- Play Over in a game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and a team (Charlotte) is off a huge upset win as an underdog of 10 points or more and they are playing 6 or more games in 10 days. This play is 28-4 since 1996.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago +1 over ORLANDO: Google News Play. Chicago is on a nice run and tonight a healthy Derek Rose will certainly help them. The Bulls have done it at both ends of the floor this year as they have put up 97.1 ppg on 45.75 shooting, including a solid 38.2% from long range. Chicago did struggle vs Atlanta (76 points), but in their other 4 games during their 5 game win streak they did average 106.3 ppg. This is a very balanced offense, as they have 6 players that average at least 8.4 ppg, with the leader being last years league MVP Derek Rose (20.9 ppg). Rose, though, banged his left elbow on the floor after a drive to the basket late in the fourth quarter vs Detroit. He stayed in the game but had the elbow wrapped afterward, and told reporters an X-ray was negative and he should be 100% for this game. Orlando has put up 95.7 ppg (15th), but haven't played a team with this good a defense just yet. The defenses are even at 1-2 in the league, but Chicago get a solid edge on offense and even though they have struggled in this building they will find a way to get a big road win here.
BOSTON -6 over Indiana: The Pacers are off to a fine start at 4-2 and they are 2-2 on the road, but just 1-2 on this trip and their last won was a 35 point loss to the Heat. I don't feel they are ready to tangle with the big boys just yet. The Celtic got off to a slow start this year, but have since righted the ship to go 4-0 in their last 4 games. They have outscored their last 4 opponents by 11.5 ppg and they have won all 3 of their home games by at least 8 points. Overall the defenses are about even, but on the road the Pacers have allowed 98.2 ppg, while Boston allows just 83.2 ppg at home. Boston is very hot right now and I just don't see Indiana scoring enough points to keep this one close. Indiana is 3-8 ATS the last 11 in this series and I don't see them improving on that tonight.
2 UNIT PLAY
Portland -2 over PHOENIX: PORTLAND is 16-3 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 3 seasons and 28-13 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Kansas State/ Arkansas Over 63: I don't expect 100 points like in the Orange Bowl, but this one will still generate plenty of points. Normally when you see an OU line this high you expect that both teams are good passing teams, but that is not the case here as KSU ranks as one of the worst passing schools in the nation. The Wildcats come in ranked 109th in passing as they have put up just 149.8 ypg through the air, but they do run the ball very well as they have put up 193.7 ypg on the ground, which is 25th. Now one of the best indicators as to how a team does when they have the ball is the yards pewr point stat. That stat petty much takes into account short fields from TO's or special team returns or just their defense setting them up with a short field as well. All in all it shows how efficient a team is when the have the ball and the Wildcats are the most efficient team in the nation as they have a YPP of 9.9. That number does makes sense as they are 95th in total offense (343.4 ypg), but 30th in scoring (33.1 ppg). Now tonight that running game should get cranking as they will be facing a Hogs team that is 80th in the nation vs the run (174.3 ypg) and once tghey get the ground game churning it will open up some throwing lanes for Klein to take advantage. The Hogs defense has allowed 371.4 ypg (52nd) and 22.8 ppg (38th) overall, but they still have allowed 28+ points in 6 of their last 10 games. The Hogs on offense also have a strong YPP number at 12.3, which is 12th in the nation. Arkansas has been known for their passing game the last few years and this year they have a good one, as they rank 13th in the nation, putting up 307.8 ypg. Tyler Wilson has had a good year for them ranking 23rd in QB Rating and 18th in ypa, while throwing 22 TD passes to only 6 INT's. Tonight he should have a big game vs a KSU defense that has allowed 267.2 ypg through the air, which is 105th in the nation. Overall the Wildcat defense comes in 74th in total defense (398.8 ypg) and 68th in scoring defense (27.8 ppg). The KSU defense did have their good moments this year, but in games vs high powered offenses (Baylor, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M) they allowed 45.8 ppg, so I really expect them to struggle tonight vs this high powered Arkansas attack. Both teams have very low YPP numbers, so they know what to do with the ball when they have it, so i expect both teams to find the endzone often tonight. This game should hit at least 70+ points. KEY TREND--- Over the last 3 seasons the Over is 15-3 in KSU games after the first month of the season.
Jeff Benton
Your Friday night freebie is the Portland Trail Blazers as the small road favorite over the Phoenix Suns.
Portland just dismantled the Lakers last night on their home floor, and while they are playing in a back-to-back situation, I think it is clear this team is ready for the wear-and-tear this compacted season brings.
The Blazers stand at 5-1 through their first six games, and LaMarcus Aldridge has seen his star shine bright early on this year.
As for aging Phoenix, the Suns have been stuck in the starting gate at 2-4 both straight up and against the spread. It is clear this is a team that needs to make a decision as to what to do with their aging roster, especially Steve Nash.
Portland turned the corner in this series last season, winning three of the four season series meetings both straight up and against the spread, and I expect them to keep the upper-hand as they tangle with the Suns for the first time this season.
Trail Blazers make it a 6-1 start to the season with the road win and cover.
3♦ PORTLAND
Derek Mancini
For tonight's Free Play I'm siding with the Warriors plus the points against the Lakers. No Stephen Curry, no problem, right? Well, not exactly, but for the purpose of handicapping this contest, I'm confident the guys in Vegas have already factored his injury into this line. Also, as expected, the public has totally overreacted to Curry's injury, something I'm sure the oddsmakers were expecting. With over 70% of the action coming in on the Lakers, the public is getting led to the slaughter tonight.
From a match up standpoint, can we at least admit that this version of the LA Lakers is not as elite as we once thought. Kobe is Kobe (even with the bum wrist) and Bynum and Gasol are playing well, but then what? The reason the Lakers are 4-4 right now is they have ZERO depth and it's going to cost their backers big in games where they're laying so many points.
Look guys, it's not like I'm saying Golden State is a better team, far from it. That being said, they have the talent - in the short-term - to make up for Curry's injury. Ellis and Lee are both top-tier at their position, and Rush and Wright are both rock-solid options in the backcourt. Their bench is short, but does have some young talent. They may not be great, but they can stay within double digits of a struggling Lakers team. Take Golden State plus the points over the LA Lakers Friday.
2♦ GOLDEN STATE
Matt Rivers
Your Friday night comp play winner comes in the NBA where I expect Philadelphia to drill Detroit in the City of Brotherly Love.
Dating back to last season, the Pistons are on a 2-9 spread slide their last eleven games played away from Auburn Hills. The Pistons are already 0-2 this season both straight up and against the spread on the highway, losing both by double-digits.
Things will not improve against a 76ers team that is playing their home opener after starting the season with five in a row away from home. Doug Collins' team kept their heads above water on the highway, winning three of the five outright, and they did cover three of the four times they were favored on the road swing.
Now it will be four in a row at home, and the last time they played host to the Pistons, Philly dumped Detroit by 16-points. Rodney Stuckey is nursing a strained groin, so expect the thin Pistons to lose touch in this game somewhere around the halfway mark of the second half.
The home fans had to wait a while for this home opener, but they are rewarded with the blowout win.
Lay it with the Sixers.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s look at the Charlotte Bobcats to cover against the Atlanta Hawks.
The Hawks went to triple overtime and lost against the Miami Heat Thursday night. Besides being physically drained, losing to the Heat could also mentally drain the Hawks. The Heat did not have LeBron James or Dwayne Wade and the Hawks missed a chance to beat them.
This is a good spot for Charlotte, which averages 96.5 points a game. In four road games so far, the Hawks average 91 points a game. This season, it’s important to single out when teams are going to have off nights. This looks like a prime spot for Atlanta.
Charlotte is coming off a 118-110 win over the Knicks and are looking to improve.
Take the home dog.
3♦ BOBCATS
ROCKETMAN
NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh
Play: NY Rangers +118
NY Rangers are 25-11 last 3 years when playing back to back days. NY Rangers are 8-1 this year against division opponents. Pittsburgh is 58-81 since 1996 in a home game when the total is 5 or less. NY Rangers have won 8 of their last 9 games overall. Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Rangers are 9-2 in their last 11 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Rangers are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Atlantic. Rangers are 17-4 in their last 21 games following a win. Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Rangers are 22-7 in their last 29 overall. Rangers are 20-7 in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference. Rangers are 19-7 in their last 26 games playing on 0 days rest. Rangers are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Penguins are 7-22 in their last 29 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Penguins are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. Atlantic. Rangers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh. Rangers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Road team is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on NY Rangers tonight!
Black Widow
1* on Toronto Raptors -6.5
Plays on any team (TORONTO) - a good defensive team (88-92 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. The Raptors are certainly a better team than they get credit for this season. They are 3-3 this year with their only losses coming on the road against Dallas and Orlando along with a 5-point home loss to Indiana. They also have two road wins on their resume, and they are up against perhaps the worst team in the league tonight. The New Jersey Nets are just 1-6 on the season, and they still have injury concerns throughout their line-up. While Deron Williams may return tonight, Brook Lopez, Kris Humphries and Damion James are out. This is a very thin team right now and one that won't be able to match the depth of Toronto. The Nets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest. the Raptors are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. New Jersey is 23-48 ATS in their last 71 vs. Eastern Conference. The Nets are 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 3 seasons. Take the Raptors and lay the points.