TEDDY COVERS
Cleveland @ Minnesota
PICK: Cleveland +7
The thought process here is simple. Minnesota is vastly improved this year -- no question - but they still have no business as seven point chalk against anybody. And Cleveland is also vastly improved this year, but the betting markets don't seem to have noticed. That sets us up with a solid opinion supporting the underdog Cavs in this spot.
Byron Scott is going to have his team's full focus tonight after their shoddy effort on the second night of back-to-backs in Toronto on Wednesday. Following two straight wins -- and four straight covers -- the Cavs came out flat and couldn't hit a shot after halftime of a 15 point loss. But we've seen this team show poise and maturity on the highway, despite playing with a rookie point guard, earning a SU win at Detroit and a tight, spread covering OT loss at Indiana. As a team, Cleveland has shown dramatic defensive improvement from last year. They are getting great energy and veteran leadership from Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao. The Cavs are a good notch or two better than they were a season ago.
That being said, the T-wolves were -1 on this floor against Cleveland last year, but they are -7 today! Obviously, the betting markets are bullish on Minnesota this year. But this T-wolves squad doesn't have the maturity or defensive flow to be priced in this range. They lost outright on this floor in their lone previous try as home chalk in 2012. Last year, Minnesota was just 4-4 SU as favorites of 2.5 points or higher, with a losing ATS record in those contests. They haven't been favored by seven points or more since the season finale against Sacramento back in 2009; a game they lost in SU fashion. Take Cleveland.
Fairway Jay
Indiana at Boston
Play: Indiana +6
We’re in action underdog style tonight, and let’s see if we can beat Boston with a Fairway Forecast Free Play. The Celtics (4-3) are giving it one more go with their veteran and aging core of Garnett, Allen and Pierce. Along with veteran center Jermaine O’Neal in the middle, we’ll see how they hold up with the shortened schedule and more back-to-backs. Boston has rattled off four-straight wins against bottom feeders New Jersey, Detroit and Washington twice, but they are no longer an elite team. Allen participated in the shoot around this morning and will play after missing the last game with the flu. The Pacers (4-3) have shown solid strength defensively against a soft slate until they were exposed by the Heat last game; just as Boston was against Miami in late December. But Indiana is strong and balanced with power players up front in Hibbert, Hansbrough, Granger and West. The back court is improved and upgraded with Collison, George and the addition of George Hill. Look for a bounce against Boston as the Pacers keep it close and get the green at the TD Garden.
Dr. Bob
Strong Opinion
ARKANSAS (-7.5) 38 Kansas St. 24
Kansas State is 10-2 with their only two losses coming against good teams Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and the Wildcats have wins over Miami-Florida, Baylor, Missouri, Texas A&M, and Texas. That’s pretty impressive. What’s not impressive is that Kansas State was out-gained 349 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 428 yards at 6.0 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A opponents. How does a team that bad go 10-2? The Wildcats were +16 in turnover margin in their 11 Division 1A games and they had 5 return touchdowns to zero for their opponents (part of that being due to their good special teams). Even with a large turnover differential and good special teams the Wildcats still shouldn’t have been close to having a 10-2 record, but being 8-1 on games decided by 7 points or less turned a team that should have been 6-6 or 7-5 into a team that went 10-2. Going 8-1 in close games, while mostly random, does have something to do with good coach and Bill Snyder’s team out-played their stats by 5 points per game this season. Part of that is just variance but I’ll give good in game coaching some of the credit. Regardless, Kansas State is simply not good enough to beat a very good Arkansas team whose only two losses were to #1 LSU and #2 Alabama. The Razorbacks were 3-0 in close games and they certainly should have lost at Vanderbilt, but Arkansas is a very good team that should win this game comfortably unless Kansas State is +2 or more in turnover margin, which is unlikely
Kansas State’s offense averaged 5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl and quarterback Collin Klein is pretty much the entire offense. Klein is a below average passer (only 5.4 yards per pass play against 1A teams that would allow 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback), but he only threw 5 interceptions all season and ran for over 1000 yards while rushing for 26 touchdowns. Arkansas’ defense doesn’t have great stats for the season, as the Hogs allowed 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defense, but Arkansas struggled early in the season without star DL Jake Bequette, who wasn’t healthy enough to start until week 6 and still led the team with 8 sacks. From week 6 the Razorbacks were 0.1 yards per rushing play better than average, yards per pass play better than average and 0.4 yppl better than average. My math model projects a modest 347 yards at 5.2 yppl for Kansas State in this game.
It will be tough for the Wildcats to keep up with a potent Arkansas attack that averaged 6.5 yards per play and 36 points per game this season against a schedule of mostly good defensive teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl and just 23 points to an average team. Arkansas is actually better than that, as the Razorbacks started to run the ball better when leading rusher Dennis Johnson (6.3 ypr) started getting 10 to 15 carries a game starting in October after an injury limited him to just 7 carries in the first 4 games. Johnson is much better than Ronnie Wingo (4.6 ypr) and Broderick Green (3.3 ypr), so getting Johnson more carries certainly made a difference. The rushing attack is 1.0 yards per rushing play better than average rather than the season rating of +0.6 yprp. The pass attack rates at 1.9 yard per pass play better than average with Tyler Wilson at quarterback if you exclude the game that leading receiver Jarius Wright missed (he missed week 3 against Troy). Arkansas’s offense is 1.6 yards per play better than average and the Razorbacks averaged 40.8 points per game if you exclude the 31 total points that they scored against Alabama and LSU – the 2 most dominating defensive units in the nation. The other 9 teams combine to have a slightly better defensive rating than Kansas State has, so it certainly wouldn’t surprise me if Arkansas hit the 40 point mark in this game.
Kansas State’s defense is a bit worse than average from a yards per play perspective, as the Wildcats allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average defensive team. However, Kansas State had a particularly tough time defending very good passing teams, as the Wildcats allowed 9.8 yards per pass play to Miami-Florida, Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State - the 4 teams Kansas State faced that rate at 1.0 yppp above average or better. Those teams would combine to average 8.1 yppp against an average defensive team (adjusted for facing Oklahoma with star WR Broyles), so the Wildcats were 1.7 yppp worse than average against good passing teams while being average against the pass overall. A regression analysis of the Kansas State pass defense as a function of the level of opposing quarterback shows a slope of 1.47, which means that for every yard better the opposing quarterback is the Wildcats would allow 1.47 more yards per pass play (i.e. they were relatively worse against better passing teams). My math model projects Arkansas with 8.2 yards per pass play in this game without adjusting for Kansas State’s pattern of being relatively worse defending good passing teams and plugging in Arkansas’ pass rating into the regression equation would yield a prediction of 8.9 yppp for Wilson in this game. Arkansas is also expected to run the ball well (5.8 yprp) and my math model projects 453 yard at 7.2 yppl without adjusting for Kansas State’s trend and 475 yards at 7.5 yppl if they continue to perform relatively worse against good quarterbacks.
Kansas State does project to have a 0.33 edge in turnover margin, which is much lower than their average turnover margin of +1.45 in their games against 1A foes, which had a great deal to do with luck. Arkansas’ Tyler Wilson simply doesn’t throw many interceptions (just 6 in 12 games), which is only 1 more than Klein threw, so it’s not likely that Kansas State will be lucky with turnovers as they often were this season. Kansas State’s good special teams rating had a lot to do with the kickoff return skills of Tyler Lockett, who averaged 35.2 yards per return with 2 touchdowns. However, Lockett was injured late in the season and will not play in this game, and the other kick returners on the team combined to average a modest 21.0 yards on 29 kickoff returns. Lockett’s absence is worth 1.2 points in special teams alone and it also may affect the passing game since he was their #2 receiver in receptions per game (although I didn’t make an adjustment in the pass attack). Kansas State still has better than average special teams but Arkansas has great special teams thanks to the punt return skills of Joe Adams (3 returned for touchdowns) and kick returners Dennis Johnson (25.6 yard average and 1 TD) and Marquel Wad (26.5 yard average and 1 TD). Arkansas also has a very good punter, who averaged 45.2 yards per punt and a 37.3 yard net. Arkansas’ edge in special teams, with Lockett out for Kansas State, is a significant 2.1 points.
Overall the math favors Arkansas by 13½ points based on the projected stats and special teams and I’d get 16 points if Kansas State’s pass defense continues to be relatively worse against good passing teams. Kansas State out-played their stats by 5.0 points (and Arkansas out-played their stats by 0.7 points), so I’d still get Arkansas by 9 points (or 11½ points) even if Kansas State continued to be better on the scoreboard than they are on the stats sheet, which is unlikely. Part of the difference between the stats and their actual scoring margin I will credit to good coaching but I think a fair line on this game is at least 12 points. That stats also predict just 58 ½ points but an adjusted points model predicts 64 ½ points so I don’t have an opinion on the total. I’ll consider Arkansas a Strong Opinion at -7 ½ or more and I’d take Arkansas in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less.
FREE NBA PICK FOR 1/6/2012: We're siding with the OVER 181 points in the Chicago Bulls/Orlando Magic matchup tonight. 181 is just too low of a total this "early" in the season. The Bulls are averaging just over 100 points/game on the road this year, while the Magic are averaging just over 100 points/game at home. The under is on a huge 8-1 run in the last 9 meetings between these clubs in Orlando. However that is very misleading as only once in the last ten games between these clubs has there been less than 181 points scored. Orlando's Dwight Howard enters this game after recording a season-high 28 points on 11-of-13 shooting in a 103-85 rout of visiting Washington on Wednesday. Meanwhile Chicago's Carloz Boozer is coming off a season-high 19 pt performance. And, Derrik Rose who's been solid all year, had 39 points the last time he faced the Magic. We expect this to be a fun game, with alot of back and forth action. We'll take the OVER. OUR FREE PICKS ARE NOW 135-72-1. Sign up today to receive them via email.