Matt Fargo
Evansville vs. Missouri State
Play: Evansville +16
Missouri St. will be playing with triple revenge, just not tonight. The Bears have a huge road game on Sunday at Wichita St., the first of two battles for likely supremacy in the MVC. That makes tonight’s game against Evansville one of those games where Missouri St. will be going through the motions and be happy with any sort of win. The Bears are gearing up for Sunday after the Shockers took care of them three times last season, including a 10-point waxing in the MVC Tournament. Evansville has been hit or miss so far this season but this is a great spot for the Purple Aces tonight. They are just 1-5 on the road but the lone win came against Butler which was a quality win despite the fact the Bulldogs have been underachieving. Evansville is 1-2 in the conference with both losses coming on the road and both being bad losses at that. That will not scare us off however as the first defeat was at Wichita St., the preseason MVC pick, and it was getting 12.5 points, 3.5-points less than here. Missouri St. has won five straight games overall and that is always going to inflate a line as will a perfect record at home, in this case an 8-0 record for the Bears. Evansville does have two important factors on its side. First, it is a better free throw shooting team overall and it is hitting a terrific 77.4 percent over its last five games while the Bears are shooting just 63.4 percent over the same span. Also, the Purple Aces have a positive assist/turnover ratio margin which is a huge asset as well in taking care of the ball. Evansville is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games in the second of back-to-back road games and it is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog of 13 or more points. Missouri St. meanwhile is just 4-16 ATS in its last 20 games following a double-digit conference win and just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games against winning teams with a winning percentage below .600. The Purple Aces are being given no chance with this line but with the situation involved, they could cause some tension for the Bears. 3* Evansville Purple Aces
Wunderdog
New Jersey Nets vs. Washington Wizards
Play: New Jersey Nets +5
It is going to be a long season once again for these clubs. Both come in to this one with 25 in the loss column on the season. I find this number hard to justify here on the Wizards. When you consider in their 33 games they own just four wins by more than 5 points, it certainly doesn't bode well fro them here. That looks even more suspicious when you consider the Nets have been within 5 points of their opponent 17 times this season, and have gotten the money in four of their last five on a single day of rest. The above shows why the Wizards are 11-26 ATS in their last 37 as a home favorite. I'll play New Jersey in this one.
Craig Trapp
Knicks vs. Suns
Play: Over 219.5
Defense will be missing for both of these teams tonight. Both teams are in top 5 in nearly every offensive category and are in bottom 5 in every defensive category. Look for this one to be in the high 230's as neither team slows the ball tonight. Will be fun game to watch and even more profitable for our pockets.
Rob Vinciletti
Youngstown State vs. Valparaiso
Play: Valparaiso -14
Valpo is 14-0 ats with 5 or 6 days rest the past few seasons. They have covered 14 of 20 times off a loss. Tonight they take on a Youngstown St. team that has struggles vs winning teams losing and failing to cover in 3 o4 4 times. They are 11-25 ats after allowing 80 or more points, including 0-4 already this season. When they are a road dog of 12.5 or more they are 0-13 straight up and 3-10 ats. This season they have lost all 6 road games by an average 15 points per game. Look for Valparaiso to get the win and cover tonight.
Timothy Black
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Play: Under 49
Two great defenses will control the tempo of the Cotton Bowl Friday night. LSU gives up 17.8 ppg (11th in the nation) and A&M gives up 20.3 ppg (25th in the nation). This will be a low scoring game that's decided down the stretch by one of the offenses finally making a big play.
Jack Jones
Memphis Grizzlies -2
Memphis remains under the radar this season. the Grizzlies are much-improved this year and their solid play is starting to get rewarded with victories. Memphis has won 4 of their last 6 games overall, with their only losses coming on a half-court buzzer beater at Sacramento and a 6-point loss at Utah. The Grizzlies bounced back to win each of their last two, crushing the Lakers 104-85 on the road and taking care of the Thunder 110-105 at home which are considered to be two of the best teams in the West. Memphis will be playing the Jazz for the second time in a week, and after their 6-point loss in Utah they'll be out for some revenge at home tonight.
The Grizzlies are 10-6 SU & 9-6-1 ATS at home this year, scoring 103.0 PPG and allowing 99.1 PPG. The home team is a perfect 6-0 in the last six meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has definitely been a factor. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Grizzlies are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. How well Memphis has played against winning teams this season just shows what they are capable of. This team is much better than their 16-19 record would indicate. Odds makers have this one right in listing the Grizzlies as the favorite tonight. Bet Memphis Friday.
Joe Gavazzi
Cleveland State vs. Butler
Play: Butler -6
Line maker has made a major adjustment in this line since opening night. But it is well warranted; it remains propped up because of Butler’s runner-up NCAA appearance and their recent 5-0 SU ATS run in which they beat the line by 48 points. But their performance in their recent game, a 76-52 loss at Wisconsin Milwaukee on January 3rd, was a real confidence buster. It will be tough to regain their mojo against the team who is arguably better than they are. Last month I wrote an article about the 70% ATS proficiency of Defensive Dandies who allow 60 or less points per game, 40% or less from the field, and 31% or less from behind the arc. Meet the Cleveland State Vikings who qualify on all counts, enter on a 3 game win streak, are 15-1 SU YTD, 8-3 ATS, and a perfect 4-0 SU ATS in Horizon play.
Sean Murphy
Portland @ Minnesota
Play: Portland -2
The Blazers have quietly started to play much better basketball in the absence of Brandon Roy. We're seeing a young team that is learning to win without its star - now 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS since December 17th.
Portland carries plenty of momentum into tonight's contest after rallying all the way back from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit in Houston on Wednesday. The Blazers are getting contributions from their entire roster right now. The same can't be said for the T'Wolves.
Minnesota is coming off a crushing overtime defeat at the hands of the Bobcats on Wednesday. The T'Wolves held a substantial lead late in the fourth quarter in that game before allowing Charlotte to roar back and steal the game in overtime.
It's worth noting that the T'Wolves have now dropped back-to-back games. Lengthy losing streaks have been the norm for them this season, as they've suffered through skids lasting at least six games on three different occasions. This team's ability to bounce back from tough losses is virtually non-existent.
This matchup has essentially been no contest in recent years, with the Blazers going 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. With Portland finally playing up to its potential and Minnesota doing nothing more than treading water, there's little reason to expect anything other than a Blazers victory tonight. Take Portland.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA +1.25 over Portland
Great spot for the T-Wolves in that they catch the Blazers on the final game of a brief three game trip. They played in Dallas and Houston this week, winning the latter by three and losing the former by the same margin. That’s two intense games that both came down to the final shot and now they’ll play a team they’ve beaten 10 games in a row and figure all they have to do is show up. The real kicker, however, is that the Trail Blazers return home after this one and host the Heat on Sunday. The local media is already asking the Blazers about “that” game, as this one is an afterthought. The T-Wolves are certainly dangerous. They haven’t won many but have given a lot of teams fits including a recent five-point loss in Boston and a two-point loss in Denver. Minnesota has also won three of its last six including two home blowout wins over the Hornets and Nets. This is a great opportunity to get a proverbial monkey off of their backs and they really couldn’t have asked for a better time to catch the look-ahead Trail Blazers. Play: Minnesota +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +9½ over ORLANDO
The Magic look a lot better since “the trade” and has now reeled off seven in a row. However, they’re showing signs that they’re on the verge of a bad game and this could be the spot. They beat the Bucks in their last game by 10 and the Warriors prior to that by 20. They’re getting big leads and they’re becoming a little too complacent when doing so. Now the Magic will play one final game before heading out on a five-game trip starting tomorrow in Dallas. They also play New Orleans, Ok City and Boston and could definitely be preparing or looking forward to getting away after being home for 10 days. These are young, NBA players with a lot of cash and they do not like being home for extended periods during the season. Besides, the Rockets are so much better than they’re getting credit for. Aaron Brooks is likely out but that’s not going to deter us. Terrance Williams could get some playing time and we like this kid. He plays with a chip on his shoulder after getting run out of New Jersey and an opportunity awaits him. Rick Adelman is a quality coach that can match people up with the best of them and it would not surprise us to see the Rockets come in here and steal a win. Play: Houston +9½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Brent Brooks
Butler / Cleveland St Over 132.5
This game will tell us a lot about the top of the Horizon League moving forward. While every team is going to give Butler their best shot, no team is as poised to do so or as potent to perhaps knock off the Bulldogs as the Vikings. Rather than speculate on the side, let's approach the total here. Butler is coming off an embarrassing 24 point road loss to UW-Milwaukee. Were they looking ahead to the Vikings showdown at Hinkle? Perhaps. Or maybe they just had a stinker on the road which can happen if their shots aren't falling. Butler isn't build for huge comebacks on the road and Brad Stevens may have just waved the white flag early in the second half against the Panthers. Expect much better shooting from the Bulldogs tonight, particularly Zach Hahn and Chase Stigall.
The Vikings are led by 20 ppg scorer Norris Cole and have proven their offense is consistent against just about any defense they've seen so far. I expect the Vikings to give their best effort. In terms of the total, having two above average FT% teams always helps.
Last year's Butler team was better defensively and did more to ugly up the game for their opponents at Hinkle. This year's team scores more and gives up more according to advanced stats. The Vikings look to be a cooperative partner in looking to an over play here. Stevens knows that he can't grind out this win so expect a shootout tonight and go over 132.5.
SPORTS WAGERS
Texas A&M +1.20 over LSU
The first thing to note here is that the game is in Dallas, Texas and therefore there is going to be massive Aggie support at Cowboy Stadium. The Tigers lost just two games all year but they lost to Arkansas and Auburn and all of their other “credible wins” were by the slimmest of margins or very lucky. LSU beat a rather average Seminole team by just four, they beat Bama by just three and they West Virginia by just six. Offensively speaking, this LSU squad leaves plenty to be desired and with 5½ weeks off, one really has to wonder how sharp that offense will be. The Tigers also had perhaps the biggest miracle win of the college season when they beat Tennessee 16-14 in a game they were favored by 17 points in. A series of extremely bizarre (you can read about it here) plays at the end of the game allowed these Tigers to literally snatch a victory from the jaws of defeat and that game was in Baton Rouge. Those losses to Arkansas and Alabama were both on the road and this, too, really has to be considered a road game for the Tigers. The Aggies beat two top teams down the stretch in Oklahoma and Nebraska, crushing the former by two TD’s. They also beat Texas Tech down the stretch and they beat them by 18. A&M closed out the season with six straight wins and if they can stop the Tigers running game and force them to go to the air, they’ll be in great shape. The Aggies have a much more balanced attack and while the Tigers defense may be the best in the land, its their offense with 5½ weeks off that’s too much of a concern. Should be close with the Aggies having a chance or two or three to win it. Play: Texas A&M +1.20 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Evansville +15½ over MISSOURI ST.
The Missouri State Bears are rolling through everyone these days. Well, rolling might not be the best way to describe their wins but they are winning. The Bears come in with an unblemished 3-0 Conference mark and an impressive overall record of 11-3. They’re doing it at both ends of the floor but this is a team that does not have the firepower to blow people out. These college kids know exactly what the line is and you can be damn sure that the Purple Aces have seen the Bears a 15½-point favorite. That’s insulting indeed when you consider how well they know each other and that the last six times they’ve played each other the score has stayed well within this margin. These are conference foes that go at it and the Purple Aces are still 7-6 this season with a win over Butler and just a 13-point loss to Indiana. They also played the Tar Heels. The best thing, however, is that the Bears will play Missouri Valley Conference leader, Wichita St. on Monday and that’s a huge game for them. Even if they have an unlikely 20-point lead late, the Aces can easily get a backdoor cover considering that the Bears are definitely thinking about Monday’s game and could rest some folks down the stretch. Play: Evansville +15½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Info Plays
3* Jazz +2
Reasons why the Jazz will cover:
1) Utah has won 8 of 9 against the Grizzlies and are 7-2 ATS in those games. The Jazz have already beat the Grizzlies twice this season, and while Memphis has played better of late, they don't deserved to be favored in this one.
2) Memphis is just 5-16 ATS in home games after allowing 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
2) Utah is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, and are 31-19 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons (Lost 87-110 last game).
Black Widow
1* on Orlando Magic -9
Few teams are as hot as the Orlando Magic right now. We'll ride them again tonight as they host the Houston Rockets on National TV Friday. The blockbuster trade Orlando made that sent the likes of Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu their way are paying major dividends. Orlando is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, winning each game by 8 points or more. This team is hitting on all cylinders right now, and they are getting contributions from everywhere. The Magic have had at least 6 players score in double figures in each of their last 5 games. Houston has lost three straight and are not playing well together as a team. The Rockets got 45 points on 13-of-18 shooting from Kevin Martin last time out, yet still lost at home to the Portland Trail Blazers. Houston is 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Magic are 14-5 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points/game. Houston is just 6-13 on the road this year, giving up a ridiculous 107.2 points/game. Orlando is only allowing 91.5 points/game at home this season. Take the Magic and lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers +1.5
The 76ers have been playing some ball at home, where they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10. In fact, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The 76ers will especially be focused when they take the floor tonight as they look to avenge an embarrassing 121-76 defeat at Chicago last month. You just don't forget losses like that, and I expect that one to drive the 76ers to a victory this evening. Take the 76ers.