Dave Price
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +3
At just 7-14, the Blazers have not shown that they can be trusted on the road. In fact, they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Timberwolves, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. This is a tough spot for Portland being its 3rd road game in 4 days. The Wolves will be the fresher team tonight, and that should translate into an upset win. Take the points.
Joel Tyson
San Antonio (-6') at INDIANA
Go ahead and lay the road wood with the San Antonio Spurs this Friday night.
Even though this will be the third road game in four nights for the Spurs, they find themselves saddled with a pair of road losses on this short 3 game road swing.
You know damn well they do not want to head back to San Antonio having dropped all 3 on this trip, and the fact they are still 9-4-1 against the line their last 14 roadies should tell you all you need to know.
Indiana has not gotten any benefit of late from playing at Conseco Field House, as the Pacers are on a 1-4-1 spread slide at home their last 6, and a 2-8-1 overall spread slide their last 11 games.
The Spurs have won the last 7 series meetings, and 9 of the last 10 overall, and I like them to win here again on Friday night.
San Antonio is playing too well to see this 3-game swing not yield a "W", and tonight is the night they notch it.
Lay it on the road with the Spurs tonight.
5♦ SAN ANTONIO
Karl Garrett
Chicago at PHILADELPHIA (P)
NBA showdown in Philly this Friday, and the G-Man will side with the home team to come through.
Philadelphia just came back from a season-high 8-game road trip, and went off in the 4th quarter on Wednesday night to win and cover against the Wizards.
That win moved Philly to 9-6 straight up at home, and 11-4 against the spread in those home dates.
No doubt Chicago is on the rise in the East, winners of 5 of their last 6, but the Bulls do have a big game at home tomorrow against the Boston Celtics so it is easy to see Chicago looking past this game.
Philadelphia was BLASTED 121-76 at the start of their 8-game road swing in Chicago just before Christmas making it 3 straight losses, and losses in 5 of the last 6 to the Bulls.
Revenge time tonight for the Sixers!
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chuck O'Brien
Chicago (PK) at PHILADELPHIA
For Friday’s complimentary selection – and I’m on an 18-7 roll with my free plays – take the Bulls in a pick-em spot at Philadelphia.
One word: Mismatch. Since Derrick Rose arrived in Chicago at the beginning of last season, the Bullsa re 4-1 against the 76ers, and Philly’s lone win was by three points in overtime at home. Since that overtime loss, Chicago has won three in a row by scores of 122-90, 98-84 and 121-76 (the latter game coming 17 days ago in the Windy City, with the Bulls cashing as a five-point home favorite.
Some teams are just bad matchups for other squads – I remember in the early years of the Shaq-Kobe marriage, the Lakers couldn’t beat the Spurs to save their lives – and it’s clear that Philadelphia just can’t handle the Rose-led Bulls.
Even though Chicago had its five-game winning streak halted in Wednesday’s 96-94 loss at New Jersey, the Bulls have quietly put together a 14-3 run since Dec. 4. And even though the Bulls are just .500 on the road (8-8), they’ve gone 4-2 on the highway during their 14-3 hot streak.
Also, note that Chicago has lost back-to-back games just twice all season, and both times the second defeat came at Boston, one of them in overtime (and I don’t think we can confuse the 76ers – who are just 4-6 in their last 10 games – with the Celtics!).
It won’t be another 47-point blowout like it was in Chicago last month, but the Chuckster sees the Bulls (who play tomorrow night at home against Boston, making this a “must win”) getting the job done with a 97-89 win.
3♦ CHICAGO
Derek Mancini
Chicago at PHILADELPHIA (pk)
Tricky line here, because a huge majority of bettors are loving the Bulls to bounce back, especially at this price. They had won 5 in a row before a close loss at sorry-ass New Jersey... So there's no way a first place Chicago team losses again to another sub-.500 team following that loss right? Think again.
The line tells us a lot, because obviously bettors were going to play Chicago here, so why in the 'effin world would oddsmakers make this game a pick'em? Unless, of course, they knew something the average bettor didn't. That is that the Bulls are in trouble tonight, like they've been for most of the season on the road (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS away). For as good as Chicago has been this year, they are anything but reliable on the road, as evidenced by recent losses at New York, at Detroit (barely won in OT, but ATS loss), and the aformentioned New Jersey game.
Next, bettors are down on the 76ers because they've lost 6 of their L10 overall. Well guys, if you take the time to look at the schedule, you'll notice 5 of those 6 losses came on the road, and the one at home was to the Lakers (no shame there). Philly is 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS at home this season - numbers that are very tough to argue against. My point is, underestimate this Philly team at your own loss tonight.
Finally, to most people's surprise the 76ers have been able to survive the injury to Iguodala, going 3-1 ATS since his achilles flared up. The reason has been some strong play from Holiday, and the 76ers bench (Turner, Williams, and Speights to name a few). Look for them to continue to play some strong team basketball here, as they catch a road-weary Bulls team that could possibly be looking ahead to a meeting with the mighty Celtics tomorrow. Philadelphia over Chicago Friday.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Stephen Nover
Toronto (+9') at BOSTON
Take away Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett and the Celtics are in trouble without their point guard guard and best front-court player.
Rondo is back for Boston and beginning to play well again. Garnett remains out, though.
Toronto's equivalent to Rondo and Garnett are point guard Jose Calderon and Andrea Bargnani. They don't get the publicity, but both of are quality, underrated players. They've both been hurt, too.
Now they are back and Toronto is a much more dangerous club with them healthy. Bargnani has scored 25 and 23 points, respectively, since returning from a strained left calf that kept him out of four games.
Calderon has been bothered by a foot and ankle injury. He's averaging 12.2 assists per game during his last seven games since Dec. 17. If he averaged that number during the entire season he would be second in the NBA in assists.
The Raptors are coming off a victory against Cleveland in which they put up 120 points with Bargnani and Calderon in the lineup together.
Toronto has a double-revenge incentive. The aging Celtics are playing for the fourth time in six days. They are off a big home win on Wednesday against San Antonio. The Celtics play at the Bulls on Saturday.
The Raptors should prove competitive, but even if they don't the backdoor should be wide open with this large of a spread and the short-handed Celtics not wanting to tax their starters with a big game on deck tomorrow.
1♦ RAPTORS
Scott Delaney
Houston at ORLANDO (-9')
Great spot for the Magic to score a blowout win, as they are in the right place at the right time for their eighth-straight win.
Orlando's new-look roster is coming along nicely, as defense is sparking the current run, that has seen the Magic limit foes to 90.2 points in their last six outings, including Monday's 110-90 win over Golden State and Wednesday's 97-87 win over the Bucks.
The balance at the other end hasn't been too shabby either, as Stan Van Gundy's troupe has produced six players in double figures in each of the team's last five games.
Dwight Howard must be excited for his new supporting cast, as he's erupted to average a double-double over his last six games.
The Rockets, who have lost three straight, won't be any match for this team tonight.
Lay the home chalk, as Orlando coasts to a double-digit win.
2♦ ORLANDO
Bobby Maxwell
Miami (-6') at MILWAUKEE
For my comp selection, Miami has already beaten Milwaukee twice this season, including a 10-point win on the Bucks home court back on December 6. The way the Heat are playing right now, this game shouldn’t even be close. It will be a double-digit blowout for Miami tonight.
These teams squared off on Tuesday in Miami with the Heat getting a 101-89 win as 9 ½-point favorites. They won that game in Milwaukee 88-78 in December, cashing as a five-point chalk. The Heat have won 19 of 20 games with the only loss being a two-point loss to the Mavericks.
During this run, Miami’s defense has been stellar, only twice allowing an opponent to reach triple digits. They are getting great play from the Big Three of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. They combined for 78 points, 11 assists and 22 rebounds in the win over Milwaukee on Tuesday.
The Bucks are on ATS slides of 2-8-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 2-5 as home ‘dogs and 4-9-1 after a straight-up loss. On the opposite side, Miami is on ATS surges of 10-1 on the road, 14-5 overall, 21-8 as a road favorite and 12-5 as a favorite overall.
In this series, the heat have cashed in four of five visits to Milwaukee and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes dating back to last year. Go ahead and lay the points with Miami in this one.
4♦ MIAMI
Michael Cannon
Miami (-7) at MILWAUKEE
Take the Heat as the road chalk for your Friday free winner.
It’s hard to argue against Miami right now with all the success they’ve had. The Heat are on a 19-1 SU roll and already recorded a pair of wins and covers over Milwaukee this year.
Don’t worry about a letdown from the Heat either. If Miami sweeps its five-game road trip, they’ll tie the league record for the longest road winning streak at 16 held by the 1971-72 Lakers.
Milwaukee has lost four of five and is dealing with injuries to Brandon Jennings, Carlos Delfino and Drew Gooden.
Lay the points with Miami for the road win and cover.
3♦ MIAMI
Chris Jordan
Cleveland at GOLDEN STATE (-10)
I don't give much for a total, so I'm just going to lay it out there for you real simple.
You have the oddsmakers making the Warriors - a 14-21 club that is 12th in the Western Conference and underachieveing - laying double digits in a game... they're telling you it's going to be a high-scoring game.
Granted, Cleveland is the worst team in the league at 8-27, and is starving for offense with just 93.9 points per game, but still, this one is going to soar.
Golden State has one of the worst scoring defenses in the NBA, so by picking up the tempo, you'll see the Cavaliers put some points up in this game and help take this number over the posted 209.
The numbers favor this play as well...
With Cleveland, the Over is on winning runs of 8-3 in road games, 13-5 when catching points in this range, 12-5 when it is an underdog and 4-1 overall.
With Golden State, the high play is on streaks of 4-1 against losing teams, 5-2 when in off a straight-up win and dating back a ways, 45-20 when the Warriors host a team with a losing road record.
Take this one Over tonight.
3♦ OVER CAVS/WARRIORS
Craig Davis
Cleveland State (+6) at BUTLER
Tonight's free play is on the Cleveland State Vikings to cover this big number at Butler.
Why do we still look at the Butler team like they are the same team that went to the NCAA Championship game last year? Why? They aren't the same team and by the looks of things, they have their hands full to even win the Horizon League this year.
Tonight's game isn't necessarily a "must win" game, but it's going to tell us a lot about the front-runner for this Conference.
Who is the team to beat in the Horizon League? Can Butler rebound from getting crushed in Milwaukee? Have the Vikings improved enough to compete this year and is their early-season record a product of an easy schedule or a look at how good this team really will be?
For Cleveland State, it's all about their backcourt. Over 63% of their points come from their trio of guards, and the one guy I'm quite certain you have heard of is Norris Cole. I'm not sure what role he'll play tonight, but whatever it is he'll be a BIG factor.
Cole averages 21 PPG, 5 APG, and 5 RPG, not to mention the fact he's the leader of this crew on and off the court. Cole will absolutely make sure this team is right there at the end, and even if they don't win this road game SU, they will not lose by more than 6.
Free play of the day on Cleveland State.
3♦ CLEVELAND STATE