Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 1

Jim Feist

Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Brooklyn Nets +3½

The new-look Brooklyn Nets may be 0-1, but they are playing great defense already which is no surprise on a team with Kevin Garnett in the post. They held Cleveland to 41.7% shooting. The Nets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a spread loss and face road-weary Miami. Everyone's gunning for the champs and that was the case the last game, losing at the 76ers as a big favorite. The Heat is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and when these teams meet the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Brooklyn Nets.

Red Dog Sports

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +9½

The 76ers had a nice upset win over the Miami Heat on Wednesday night at home led by inside threat Spencer Hawes and they should show some confidence on Friday night. Washington is led by inconsistent point guard John Wall. The Wizards should win the game but I like the 76ers to stay within the points.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

OREGON STATE -4 over USC: I will look to the Beavers in this one. They lost a big shot at showing that they are for real last week with their home game vs Stanford, but the Cardinal won in the end. I expect the Beavers to bounce back here. Their offense is too good to be held down two weeks in a row and the Trojans have shown that they can be scored on, as they allowed 61 points to ASU, and 31 points to Arizona earlier in the year. They did hold the Irish to just 14 points, but ND was using backup Hendrick for most of that one. On offense, the Trojans have been hit hard by injuries and will be missing Lee for this one. They just will not be able to put up enough points to keep this one close. OSU should win by at least 10 here.

Dave Mathews

Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -3.5

Brooklyn opened up with a loss at Cleveland, while the Heat are 1-1 after losing to Philadelphia of all teams on Wednesday. The Heat decided to rest Dwyane Wade on the second of a back-to-back, which made sense, but the Sixers didn't cooperate. This time, the Heat will be motivated to play after LeBron James called out Kevin Garnett for his comments regarding Ray Allen leaving Boston. This won't be pretty. The Nets are old and unathletic. The Heat are playing for one last run but they are much more athletic and deeper. Expect a big night from Ray "Jesus Shuttlesworth" Allen.

Dave Cokin

Tampa Bay at Carolina
Play: Tampa Bay

If you look at the box score from the Tuesday Lightning-Devils hookup, it probably looks like a narrow loss for Tampa Bay. If you happened to watch the game, you likely came away with a different perspective.

The Lightning were as dull as a butter knife in the game at New Jersey. They basically didn’t do anything well in what I can only describe as an unfocused performance. This is a pretty good Tampa Bay squad, and I’m expecting a much better effort tonight at Carolina.

As for the Hurricanes, they’re Murphy’s Law on skates right now. Carolina is down to its number three goalie, and now they’ve lost Jeff Skinner to the IR, which is a big blow to their offense. The ‘Canes have only four wins in their first dozen games, and things look as though they could get worse before they get better.

History is not a huge factor for me, but it’s at least worth nothing that Tampa Bay has won each of its last four visits to Carolina. Plus, for whatever reason, road favorites are off to insanely good start this season in the NHL. There’s going to be a correction on that count, but at least for the time being, there’s a real good trend working here.

I don’t see a whole lot indicating the Hurricanes here. Tampa Bay is the superior team, they’re much healthier and they’re also off a lousy game. That adds up to what looks like a positive spot for the visitors and with the price pretty reasonable, the Lightning will be the free play tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Charlotte Bobcats +3

The Cleveland Cavaliers have not earned a 2-0 start to the season in seven years, and I don't expect that to change when they visit the Charlotte Bobcats tonight. In their season opener against Brooklyn the Cavaliers dominated the boards and turnover margin, a feat that will be hard to repeat against Charlotte. The Bobcats had just seven turnovers in their season opener while forcing 18 from the Houston Rockets.

Dating back to last season the Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents. They are also 0-7 in their last seven games following an ATS win. This matchup also falls into a system to play against a team like Cleveland when they are off an upset win as an underdog, playing in the first six games of the season, after closing out last season with five or more straight losses. This system is 30-8 against the spread.

Doug Upstone

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -3½

Play Against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Sacramento, off a close home win by three points or less in the first half of the season. The rational is if a team like the Kings is priced in this range, they could have fortunate to win the previous game and are likely to succumb in this situation. Over the 16 years, clubs like the Kings are 11-33 ATS. Good luck.

Charlie Sports

Toronto Raptors +3

The 1-0 Toronto Raptors of the NBA Eastern Conference Atlantic division will take on the 0-1 Atlanta Hawks of the Eastern Conference Southeast division in 2013 NBA action. Toronto is 4-0 Against The Spread in their last 4 NBA games played in Atlanta. The over is 4-0 the last 4 meetings between the teams.

Steve Janus

Oklahoma City Thunder +2½

Oklahoma City should not be a dog to the Timberwolves on the road. Minnesota needed overtime in their home opener to knock off a very bad Orland Magic team 120-115. If it wasn't for Kevin Love's game-tying 3-pointer with 10.2 seconds left in regulation they would have lost outright. The Thunder weren't all that impressive in a 101-98 over the Jazz, but winning in Utah is no easy task even with the Jazz down a couple notches from last year. I look for Oklahoma City to take advantage of what I feel is going to be a very bad Minnesota defense this season. The Timberwolves are all flash offensively, but will lose games down the stretch because of their inability to get stops. Kevin Durant and company aren't going to take lightly to being an underdog in this one.

Jack Jones

Spurs/Lakers Under 207

The Los Angeles Lakers have opened their season with two high-scoring games against the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors. That has inflated this total tonight as they take on the San Antonio Spurs, and I'll side with the UNDER because of it.

According to my preseason defensive ratings, the Spurs will be the most efficient defensive team in the league this season. That was evident in the opener as they held the Grizzlies to 41.9 percent shooting in a 7-point victory.

The Spurs and Lakers are very familiar with each other considering they played in the playoffs last season. Kobe Bryant was out for that series, and he remains out. It was a very low-scoring series as they combined for 170, 193, 209 and 185 points in a San Antonio sweep. That's an average of 189.3 points per game, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.

The Lakers aren't as bad defensively as what they showed against the Clippers and Warriors. They were tired playing the second of a back-to-back against the Warriors after beating the Clippers the previous night, which is the biggest reason they allowed 124 to Golden State. Off a poor performance on that end, and playing on national TV, I fully expect the Lakers to be much more into it defensively tonight.

Los Angeles is 22-10 to the UNDER after allowing 100 or more points in two straight games over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 17-5-1 in Spurs last 23 road games overall. The UNDER is 19-7 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in this series, including 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

Larry Ness

Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets
Pick: Miami Heat

Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov is spending big money (a $100 million payroll) in hopes Brooklyn’ season ends with a trip to the NBA Finals. However, as he is well aware, that rip will almost assuredly have to go through Miami. The Nets were able to pull off a blockbuster offseason deal which brought in aging veterans Kevin Garnett (37), Paul Pierce (36) and Jason Terry (36) from Boston. That trio joins D-Will, Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson et al, but one thing is clear, the time is most definitely NOW for Brooklyn!

The Nets did not open the way they would have liked, falling 98-94 at Cleveland on Wednesday. Brook Lopez scored 21 points and Pierce added 17, but down the stretch the Nets sorely missed the playmaking of point guard Deron Williams, who logged only 22 minutes, as he continues to recover from an ankle sprain. Up next for the Nets is Miami and they will attempt to snap a 13-game losing streak against the Heat, the last NINE coming in the LeBron James era. The Nets are at home but they probably couldn’t be facing the Heat at a worse time.

The Heat opened their title defense by spoiling Derrick Rose's return with a 107-96 home victory over Chicago on Tuesday but then suffered a 114-110 loss at Philadelphia, one night later. Sixers rookie Michael Carter-Williams had an outstanding debut with 22 points, 12 assists and nine steals in a game no one expected Miami to lose, even with Dwyane Wade sitting out to rest his knees on the second night of a back-to-back. The Heat were forced to play catch-up from the opening tip, falling behind 19-0 and 26-4, before pulling to 51-49 by halftime. Miami riddled Philly for 45 points in the third quarter to take a nine-point lead but fell apart in the 4th, as the Heat missed 10 straight shots at one point in the quarter.

The Heat have won 13 straight against the Nets, covering 10 of the last 12 in that run. Brooklyn's infusion of Boston's aging vets isn't going to help stem the intensity Miami will bring to this game and last year, the Nets lost all three meetings, by an average of 20.7 PPG. Nothing changes here, as the Heat win “with room to spare!”

Tom Barton

Memphis vs Detroit
Pick: Memphis -7.5

Possibly the worst thing to happen to the Piston is that the Grizzlies lost their first game this year and were beaten up on defense. Those things don't happen too often and I expect the Grizzlies to come out angry defensively tonight. Memphis won both games last year by 14 and by 12 against Detroit and while the Piston may be improved this is a tough spot for them. Memphis has won seven straight in the series by an average of 14 points and the Pistons were terrible on the road last year. The Grizzlies home crowd will be loud and the inside play by the Grizzlies abused Detroit and I see no reason why they shouldn't again here. A win after a loss last year by Memphis resulted in wins by 8 or more in 13 of 18 games and they only lost two games in a row 6 times all season. The Grizzlies 32-9 home record was one of the elite of the NBA while Detroits 11-30 away record was one fo the worst. This is a perfect bounce back home win for the Grizzlies in a game where I expect the defense to shine.

SPORTS WAGERS

Detroit +7½ over MEMPHIS

The Grizzlies don't have to be a regular-season juggernaut for first-year coach Dave Joerger to be deemed a success. Instead, he's tasked with improving an offense (17th in points per possession last season) that made its biggest upgrade at backup shooting guard/small forward (Mike Miller). Look for Memphis to pick up the pace but it’s not going to happen overnight. In the NBA or any sport for that matter, preseason means nothing at all and there is an adjustment period in real time for teams that change coaches. The Grizzlies were getting buried in San Antonio on opening night before the Spurs let up and allowed the Grizz to make the final look respectable. Memphis is still a big risk spotting significant points, not to mention this is a game they could lose outright.

The Pistons floored the accelerator on their rebuilding efforts, adding Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings to the burgeoning duo of Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond. Detroit has the size and defensive expertise to be a stout team and that was on full display in their opening night win over the Wizards. Detroit is very likely the most undervalued team in the NBA right now because of their previous years of basking in mediocrity. The Pistons have arrived and while everyone is talking about the Bulls, Heat, Nets, Knicks and Pacers, these Pistons remain heavily under the radar. Get on this Piston bandwagon while the value is still there because this team is damn good and the value will not last long.

MINNESOTA -2½ over Oklahoma City

Kevin Durant is scary good. Unless you watch this guy frequently you can’t get an appreciation for what Durant can do with the basketball and what he can do without it as well. He’s Michael Jordan good and when it’s all said and done, Kevin Durant may go down as the best basketball player ever. An MVP run by KD is as sure as the Thunder making the playoffs. However, with Russell Westbrook out, the Thunder won't be at full strength for at least a couple more weeks. Throw in Kevin Martin's departure and Durant is being asked to carry a very heavy load. Luckily, the NBA's scoring champion in three of the past four years is more than up to the task but the Thunder will lose some games early because Durant can’t play 48 minutes a game and OKC has a weak bench. Against a soft defensive Jazz squad on opening night, the Thunder won by three points while shooting just 40% from the field. They are in much tougher tonight.

The Wolves are dead-set on ending a nine-year playoff drought. Minnesota spent a combined $117 million in re-signing Nikola Pekovic and Chase Budinger and adding Kevin Martin and Corey Brewer. With Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio healthy and Martin in the fold, Minnesota should be able to improve an offense that finished 25th in points per possession last season. The T-Wolves opened up with an OT win at home against the Magic and while that was not impressive, it’s still a win and they hit some key shots when it mattered most. The Wolves are only going to get better as the season progresses and although it’s early this is one of those true measuring stick games where you either thrive or fold. We’re playing thrive because with home court and more depth, the T-Wolves will show they mean business.

WASHINGTON -9½ over Philadelphia

This game has a similar feel to the Lakers game against Golden State on Tuesday after L.A. defeating the Clippers as a 9½-point pooch on opening night. The Lakers were getting 12 points the next night in Golden State and got absolutely buried by 31 points. You might have to go back 30 years to find the last time the Wizards were favored by this much over anyone. Throw in Philadelphia’s win over Miami on opening night, as a 12-point pooch no less, and the points being offered appear even more appealing. Don’t bite. The Heat did not show up in Philadelphia and the 76ers took advantage. It's clear the Sixers have their sights set on the future, not 2013-14. Philadelphia is going to get blown out in many games this season and after defeating Miami, its first big letdown will occur here.

The Wizards fought hard in their opening night loss in Detroit, falling by a score of 113-102. Detroit hit 10 three’s and also made 24 free throws. That adds up quickly. However, Washington is one of the best defensive teams in the Association and there's undeniable potential in the backcourt pairing of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards also have five guys that could go off for 20 or more a night so if one guy struggles, there are plenty more to pick up the slack. There are times when you have to pay more attention to the betting line than anything else and this is one of those times when the number says to lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA -½ +118 over N.Y. Islanders

Regulation only. Two slumping teams get together here and one we like the Senators chances of snapping out of it more than the Islanders chances. The Islanders have lost four of their last five games with only win over that span occurring in Pittsburgh in a game they didn’t deserve to win. The Pens outshot the Islanders 42-25 and out-chanced them 24-11. The Islanders are also coming off back-to-back home losses to the Rangers and Philadelphia. Combined that pair has eight wins in 23 games. Defensively, the Islanders are a dumpster fire and it becomes a big problem when they are trying to kill penalties. That should bode well here for Ottawa, as it is 8 for 20 on power plays during their current 5-1-0 stretch in the series, while the Islanders are 1 for 22.

So, while the Islanders were losing to Philly and New York, the Sens lost to Chicago and San Jose. Ottawa outshot San Jose 40-29 and scored five goals against Chicago but lost 6-5. Prior to that, the Sens lost to Anaheim 2-1. Combined that trio (Chic, San Jose & Anaheim) is 28-11. The Sens take a huge step down in class when facing an Islanders club that they have continuously dominated. Ottawa also has just one win at home and that doesn’t figure to be sitting well with fans, coaches or players. Brian Anderson has been a little shaky in net recently so the Senators will turn to Robin Lehner, the goaltender they chose to keep over Ben Bishop. Everything points to the Sens getting off the mattress tonight at home and playing one of their best games of the year.

DALLAS -104 over Colorado

Regulation only. What the Avalanche have accomplished so far over the first 11 games is nothing short of remarkable. Colorado has lost one time, they are 5-0 on the road and they have allowed 16 goals against in 11 games. However, recent events and an unnecessary trade suggest the inevitable setback is forthcoming. First goaltender Semyon Varlamov was arrested on second-degree kidnapping and third-degree assault and the first charge is a serious felony charge. Varlamov’s actions seriously put a damper on a team that was flying high. What do you say to a guy hanging around the dressing room that just put a beating on his girlfriend? It adds tension, awkwardness and even some discomfort. There is no doubt that Varlamov’s arrest and the nature of it will affect this team for at least a few games. J.S. Giguere gets the start here.

One should never evaluate a trade prematurely. They happen and only over time do we get a true measure of which team got the better deal. On Wednesday, the Avs traded Steve Downie to Philadelphia in exchange for Maxine Talbot. This trade is not going to receive a lot of press but it’s the timing of it that is so questionable. Why fix something that isn’t broken? Patrick Roy said the trade was made to bolster the Avalanche penalty killing. Ah, Dude, your team leads the NHL with a 92.3 penalty-kill percentage. Downie was playing great hockey at the time of this trade. He has seven points in 11 games and worked as hard as anyone on the team. Talbot is a different kind of player (2 points in 11 games) but was this trade necessary at this time? We’re suggesting it’s an overkill move by the egotistical Roy and one that absolutely did not need to be made at this time. The players won’t say so but they have to be scratching their collective heads regarding both the trade and the arrest. This is the perfect time to fade them.

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