Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, November 15

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Cornell at Louisville
The Cardinals look to take advantage of a Cornell team that is hitting the road after suffering an 89-79 loss to Binghamton and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Louisville is the pick (-32) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 42. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-32)

Game 723-724: Florida Atlantic at Duke (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 51.040; Duke 77.272
Dunkel Line: Duke by 26
Vegas Line: Duke by 29 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+29 1/2)

Game 725-726: Cornell at Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 41.447; Louisville 83.610
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 42
Vegas Line: Louisville by 32
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-32)

Game 727-728: Georgia Tech at Georgia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 61.125; Georgia 67.197
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 6
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 1
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+1)

Game 729-730: UL-Lafayette at Arkansas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 52.310; Arkansas 67.765
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 11
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-11)

Game 731-732: South Florida at Bowling Green (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 57.450; Bowling Green 57.968
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+4 1/2)

Game 733-734: Cleveland State at TX-Arlington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 52.970; TX-Arlington 50.301
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State

Game 735-736: Rice at Texas A&M (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 45.334; Texas A&M 60.394
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 15
Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 18
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+18)

Game 737-738: Columbia at Michigan State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 50.994; Michigan State 77.342
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-22 1/2)

Game 739-740: Nevada at San Francisco (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 52.230; San Francisco 61.651
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-7)

Game 741-742: UC-Davis at Utah (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Davis 53.840; Utah 62.772
Dunkel Line: Utah by 9
Vegas Line: Utah by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (+11 1/2)

Game 743-744: Oakland at California (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 46.746; California 71.221
Dunkel Line: California by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 18
Dunkel Pick: California (-18)

Game 745-746: Tennessee Tech vs. TX-Pan American (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 45.922; TX-Pan American 46.187
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 6
Dunkel Pick: TX-Pan American (+6)

Game 747-748: IPFW at TX-Corpus Christi (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IPFW 54.047; TX-Corpus Christi 55.461
Dunkel Line: TX-Corpus Christi by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: IPFW by 4
Dunkel Pick: TX-Corpus Christi (+4)

Game 749-750: San Jose State vs. WI-Milwaukee (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 40.673; WI-Milwaukee 49.897
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 9
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (-5 1/2)

Game 751-752: James Madison at Northern Illinois (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 50.138; Northern Illinois 50.381
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: James Madison by 2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+2)

Game 753-754: Elon at Charlotte (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 49.053; Charlotte 60.921
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 12
Vegas Line: Charlotte by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-2 1/2)

Game 755-756: Western Carolina at Virginia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 47.511; Virginia Tech 52.504
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 5
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 8
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+8)

Game 757-758: Murray State at Old Dominion (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Murray State 47.705; Old Dominion 54.733
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 7
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-2)

Game 759-760: Samford at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 44.305; Indiana 73.406
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 29
Vegas Line: Indiana by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-19 1/2)

Game 761-762: Morehead State at Xavier (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 51.258; Xavier 61.033
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 10
Vegas Line: Xavier by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+13 1/2)

Game 763-764: Idaho State at Arizona State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 42.664; Arizona State 70.473
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 28
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-22 1/2)

Game 765-766: NE-Omaha at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NE-Omaha 49.286; UNLV 60.308
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 11
Vegas Line: UNLV by 14
Dunkel Pick: NE-Omaha (+14)

Game 767-768: Northern Arizona at USC (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 45.271; USC 59.869
Dunkel Line: USC by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: USC by 17
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+17)

Game 771-772: Holy Cross at North Carolina (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Holy Cross 45.487; North Carolina 73.183
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 27 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 21
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-21)

Jim Feist

Washington vs. UCLA
play: Over 60½

A pair of deadly offenses meet in the warm, California Friday night air. Washington comes to town with a senior QB and one of the best offenses in the nation averaging 37 points, 286.9 yards passing (25th) and 17th in the nation with 229 yards rushing. That was on display last week as QB Keith Price threw for two touchdowns and ran for one as part of a huge first half where Washington racked up nearly 500 yards on offense, and the Huskies routed Colorado 59-7. Washington ran 59 plays and finished with 464 total yards in the first half! This team got smoked in mid-season during a 3-game skid because of a soft defense and they face a deadly UCLA offense in this one, one averaging 36.6 ppg behind QB Hundley. They've scored between 37 and 58 points in every home game. This will be an offensive show.

Doug Upstone

Elon vs. UNC-Charlotte
Play: Elon +2½

Elon returns much of their scoring from last year, they are favored to win the Southern conference this season, ahead of Davidson and Samford. They overachieved a bit in the 2012-2013 campaign and may not have the sneak up luxury this year but will be interesting to see how they handle it. Take the Phoenix plus 2 or 3 here, they are the better team and should win this one outright on the road.

Red Dog Sports

Columbia vs. Michigan State
Play: Columbia +23

Take the underdog from the Ivy League. Michigan State is off a big win over Kentucky in a #1 vs. #2 battle on national TV and now they must face the Lions. Columbia has some talent that can make 3's and I think they can stay within 18 to 20 points.

Rob Vinciletti

Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings -1½

The Kings fit a rare system here that has won the only 7 times it has applied since 1995. The sample is small but here goes. We want to play on home teams off a home dog win if they had 3 or more days off prior to the win and they play a road team that is off a road dog loss and spread loss. These home teams are 7-0 straight up and ats winning by an average 104-90 score. Both teams are 2-5 on the season but the Pistons are 0-4 straight up and ats of late and have lost 16 of 19 if their last 3 games have played over the total. We will back the Sacramento Kings here who were very impressive in their wire to wire win over Brooklyn on Wednesday night. On Friday there are Four 100% Perfect 5* Plays to start the weekend off in the NBA, a 20-1 NCAAB Power angle Play and the PAC 12 Simulator side with a 100% angle. Jump on now and Roll your book like wholesale carpet.

Joe Gavazzi

UCLA -2.5

Each of these teams is Bowl eligible and trailing in their respective divisions of the PAC 12. Each has an explosive offense. Washington operates behind QB Price and RB Sankey. UCLA operates behind QB Hundley, RB James, and array of defensive players who UCLA HC Mora has begun to switch to the offensive side of the ball. Factors favoring UCLA are the slightly better offense, better defense, and a home road dichotomy which finds UCLA to be 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in this series at this site, while Washington enters on a 3-9 ATS slide in pure road games.

Carlos Salazar

Washington at UCLA
Play: UCLA -2.5

UCLA has been a scoring machine at home this season averaging nearly 50 points per game. Look for more of the same on Friday night against Washington who has struggled on the road this season allowing 36 points per game. Carlos says you can bet UCLA with confidence.

EZWINNERS

Washington Huskies +2.5

I like the spot here for the Huskies as they take on a UCLA team that is dealing with multiple injures at their skill positions. The Bruins had to turn to freshmen linebacker Miles Jack last week to play running back do to the numerous injuries that UCLA has at the position. I also look for Washington to use various blitz schemes defensively against UCLA. Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley at this stage in his career has not handled blitzes very well. The Huskies are a team that does not have a problem scoring points. Washington has a balanced offensive attack that averages over 200 yards per game on both the ground and through the air and has put up 100 points and almost 1300 yards off offense in their last two games. Washington's game plan will be to pound the ball on the ground with running back Bishop Sankey. Sankey had his seventh 125 yard rushing game of the season last Saturday in the Huskies 59-7 win over Colorado. Sankey is third in the nation rushing for 145 yards per game and has rushed for 384 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. The soft spot in the UCLA defense is the rush defense. Last week the Bruins allowed Arizona's Ka'Deem Carey, the country's second leading rusher, to run for 149 yards and a touchdown. If the Huskies have that same kind of success running the ball they will pick up the win here. Take the points.

DAVE COKIN

UC DAVIS VS UTAH
PLAY: UTAH

Hiring the wrong coach can often be a blunder that ends up having long term ramifications. Doing it twice in a row can lead to an utter disaster. Utah is finding that out the hard way these days, as the once perennially tough Utes have fallen upon some mighty hard times o the hardwood.

Rick Majerus was going to be impossible to replace when he left Utah. But the Utes made the wrong call with Ray Giacoletti, and following one big year with Majerus holdovers, it was straight downhill for Utah. They then turned to the energetic Jim Boylen, who seemed to be turning things around. But Boylen was never really a good fit for this program and when it went bad, it went really bad.

Thus, the Utes are in rebuilding mode as they enter their third season under Larry Krystkowiak. But this time I feel as though Utah got it right. Krystkowiak has already made some nice strides with the program, and it showed late last season when the Utes made a stunning run in the PAC-12 tournament.

This year’s entry has lots of new faces, with a significant JUCO input. They’re not ready to contend in the PAC-12, but if the grit and determination this team showed last year remains intact, the Utes are going to make life a little tougher on their conference brethren this season.

Tonight is the first legit game for Utah this season. The game against something called Evergreen State means nothing. But I at least like the apparent fact they played with effort for the entire game, even though it was over by opening tip.

UC-Davis is the opponent tonight, and the Aggies are not exactly off to a dream start. They lost JT Adenrele for the season with a knee injury, and will probably be without the services of their big star tonight. Corey Hawkins is the unquestioned MVP on this team, and he’s doubtful with a hand injury.

I made a note to myself during last year’s conference tournament that Utah might be a good early season value this year. The number here gets a bump with the Hawkins injury, but I still see good reason to roll with the Utes out of the gate. I’ll spot the number with Utah to go full bore for the full 40 again and come away with the win and cover in the process.

Alex Smith Sports

Nebraska Omaha vs UNLV
Pick: Nebraska Omaha

The Rebels came into the season as favorites to win the Mountain West, but have looked like total busts so far, Losing a preseason tilt to D2 School Dixie State, and recently getting blown out by UC-Santa Barbera, both at home. They now take on a speedy running team in Nebraska-Omaha, who rank near the top in the country in possessions per game. Both teams play fast, with UNLV having the edge on defense. This is a must win for the Rebels, because with Arizona State and Illinois on deck, things won’t get easier for Dave Rice’s crew. I like the Rebs to win this game but I feel UNO will keep it close to the number and cover the spread. Take the points with the Mavericks +13.5

Mid-Major Matt

Cleveland State vs Texas Arlington
Pick: Texas Arlington

Cleveland State moves from California to Texas as they continue their road trip. Next up is Texas-Arlington who is 2-1 on the season. The Mavericks have taken care of business at home with their loss coming at Boise State 116-87. They are led by Reger Dowell who puts up 26.3 points per game. The home team has four double digit scorers and is finding things a little easier then expected offensively. The Vikings lost to San Francisco Wednesday night and are expected to travel to play another road game just 48 hours later. In that one they lost 91-82 to the Dons. They are led by Bryn Forbes who is scoring 17 points per game. San Fran has failed to cover 24 of their last 38 games against teams with a winning record. They also have failed to cover in 21 of their last 32 road lined games. We'll take Texas-Arlington on Friday night.

Charlies Sports

Detroit Piston +2

The 2-5 Detroit Pistons of the NBA Eastern Conference Central division will take on the 2-5 Sacramento Kings of the Western Conference Pacific division in 2013 NBA action. Detroit has dropped their last 4 NBA games Against The Spread. The over is 5-0 the last 5 eetings between the teams. Detroit is 5-0 the past 5 times the teams have played in Sacramento. Detroit gets the road cover.

Andrew Lange

Texas A&M -18

In 2012, Rice was a nice story with 19 wins and two postseason victories. But the following year six players left the program including Arsalan Kazemi who proved to be a high-quality DI player during his time at Oregon. It is one thing for players to leave when a program bottoms out but it isn't a good sign following a season head coach Ben Braun had been spent three years working towards. Not surprising, last year was a mess as the Owls posted just one conference win and lost by single digits on only four occasions. Heading into this year, Rice lost its top two scorers and rebounders and Braun was forced to reload once again. In their season opener, the Owls shot less than 40% in a nine-point win over NAIA St. Thomas. And last time out, in what was a huge red flag, the Owls were beat on their home floor by Southeastern Louisiana who opened the season with an 89-53 loss at Missouri. Texas A&M has looked sharp in the early going with an 82-58 win over Buffalo and 91-67 win over Mississippi Valley State. The Aggies lost Elston Turner but returned four players with starting experience. Turner's departure is big as he was the centerpiece of the offense but against weaker competition, I expect to see more balance and some of A&M's younger players to gain confidence. Against Buffalo, A&M had seven players score between 8-15 points and we saw a similar output against MVSU. Offensive efficiency has always been a concern with A&M but Rice's defensive numbers last season were horrific and their only two true post players are freshmen. That suggests A&M, who shot 62% from 2-point range in the first two games, should have a field day in the paint with a ton of good looks.

Jimmy Boyd

Brooklyn Nets -1

The Brooklyn Nets have been off to a slow start this season, but I think they will hand Phoenix their first loss of the season tonight. The Nets have not been playing bad, they just have not caught a lot of breaks this season. They are averaging 95.7 points per game, shooting 44% from the field. They have averaged 55 rebounds per game when playing on the road, which gives them an edge over the Suns who average 52 boards per game.

The Nets actually outperform the Suns in a lot of different statistical categories. They have more assists, less turnovers and are a better rebounding team. They are shooting 33.9% from the three-point line, while the Suns average 31.3% from beyond the arch when playing at home. The Nets are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games against Pacific division teams. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team winning less than 40% of their road games.