Ray Monohan
Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5
The Nuggets are not nearly the imposing force at home that we have come to expect. They are off to a rough start while Minnesota ha found success as one of the top scoring teams in the league to start. Down a key inside player the Nuggets are light upfront and lack the scoring options to play the style of game they used to. The new style just ain’t working really so take Minnesota as the short road favourite. All they have to do is win by a bucket.
Dave Price
Boston Celtics +2½
The Trail Blazers are off to a nice 6-2 start but have enjoyed the comforts of home for five of their first eight games. Boston is 4-5 but has played five of its first nine on the road. The Celtics struggled early on losing their first four games (three of those on the road) but are 4-1 SU in their last five and 5-1 ATS in their last six. We also get Boston in a motivated spot as they are coming off an upset loss to the Bobcats. What we've learned is the Blazers can't be trusted laying small change on the road. In fact, they are 0-8 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 8.8 points in this spot. Portland has lost nine straight in Boston by an average of 14.4 points. Take the Celtics.
Steve Janus
Bobcats/Cavaliers Under 190
This will be the second time the Bobcats and Cavaliers have faced off in 2013. In the first meeting the two teams combined to score just 174 points and it's hard to expect a whole lot of improvement. Both Cleveland and Charlotte rank in the bottom three in the league in offensive efficiency and neither of these teams are looking to push the pace. Cleveland has topped 100 points in a game just twice all season and that came against a couple of bad defenses in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Bobcats have eclipsed the century mark just once and that was a mere 102 points against an unmotivated Knicks team on the road. For this game to go over we are looking at a score based on the spread of 99-92, which I believe is simply asking too much. The UNDER is 33-16 in the Cavaliers last 49 home games following a loss.
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO +125 over Toronto
OT included. It was a long time coming. The Sabres finally parted ways with Darcy Regier after 13 long years as Buffalo’s GM. Ron Rolston is also gone and that’s another good move by owner Terry Pegula. Against Anaheim last week, Rolston decided to bench the Hodgson/Moulson/Ennis line for the entire first half of the game and if that won’t get you fired, nothing will. Note to Rolston if he ever coaches again; next time you bench your three best players with a crap team, please inform the betting public so we can at least get paid like you do. The Ducks beat the Sabres that night 6-2 and outshot them 47-26. The Sabres now look to past glory to bring them back to respectability. Enter Pat LaFontaine, now overseeing hockey operations and interim coach Ted Nolan. What, Gilbert Perrault, Rene Robert and Richard Martin were unavailable? All kidding aside, the Sabres really aren’t this bad and they’re positioned to be a force in a few years with a bevy of draft picks and a minor league crop of what most experts are calling can’t miss prospects. The Sabres have two wins over their last four games. They defeated the Sharks in San Jose and they also defeated the Kings. The “first game with a new coach”
angle also comes into play here and the Sabres catch the Maple Leafs at a pretty good time. Toronto’s Nazem Kadri has been suspended for three games. He joins the Maple Leafs’ other two top centers on the rack and that leaves a huge hole up the middle. It also makes the Leafs less dangerous from an offensive standpoint. Toronto has one OT win against New Jersey and three regulation goals over its last four games. The Leafs' habitual pattern this season—getting outshot but winning thanks to great goaltending and opportunistic scoring is starting to catch up to them. The goaltending is still great but the Maple Leafs are slumping and their defense is still a huge work in progress. This is a home and home series and a spirited effort is expected this weekend from the Sabres. We like them to win one of the two games and should they lose here, we’ll come back with them tomorrow at an even bigger price.
Boston -½ +145 over OTTAWA
Regulation only. This bet will stand only if Craig Anderson starts for the Senators. Sens Coach Paul MacLean insists that he will and for that MacLean is an idiot. Anderson was great for a long time for Ottawa but so what? The NHL is lined with great players that lost it and when they do, they have to earn playing time back. We’re not suggesting that Anderson has lost it but we are saying that right now he’s not the same. Anderson has spent a lot of time on the shelf over the past couple of years and his timing may be off but one thing we know for sure is that he’s psychologically frazzled and he’s the second best goaltender on the team. When Ottawa reeled off three consecutive, much-needed wins last week, they owe four of those six points to Robin Lehner. With the exception of a win over Florida, the Sens were badly outshot and out-chanced in the other two. Lehner has been ridiculously good for the Sens with a .945 save percentage on the season and he has yet to record a save percentage under .900 in any one game. Against Philadelphia on Tuesday, Anderson got the nod and Ottawa lost 5-0. Now MacLean will come right back with Anderson and it’s a move that is questionable at best. Ottawa has looked out of sorts the entire season. Something is clearly not right with this team and MacLean’s decision to start Anderson has to be viewed as a bad one. It makes no sense at all.
Tuukka Rask is the NHL’s best goaltender and that along is enough reason to bet the Bruins here. Boston has also won four straight and outscored the opposition over that span, 13-4. Boston’s goal differential of plus 19 is tops in the East and the only teams that top its mark are the Blues, Rockies and Sharks. It also doesn’t hurt that the B’s are 2-0 in the second game of back-to-backs. The Bruins are in great form right now. That said, this wager is largely predicated on the Sens arrow pointing in the wrong direction. Internally, something is wrong. Again, this bet will stand only if Anderson is confirmed. If the Sens go with Lehner, this write-up will be removed.
Philadelphia +123 over WINNIPEG
OT included. It would be easy to jump on the Jets bandwagon here after the team won three in a row over Nashville, San Jose and Detroit. Winnipeg has also won four of its last five with only loss over that span occurring against Chicago. That’s a nice stretch indeed but they were a pooch in every game except for the one against Nashville in which they allowed 41 shots on net and Preds goaltender Carl Hutton couldn’t stop anything. The point is, the Jets have much more appeal when taking back a tag as oppose to spotting one. In a game against a team with more talent or at least equal talent, the Jets are a 50/50 proposition. They now catch a Flyers team that is coming on.
Hopefully we’re not too late to get back on this Flyers bandwagon. We billed them as an undervalued squad early and stopped playing them after a 7-0 loss to the Capitals two weeks ago. Since then, Philadelphia has picked up 9 out of a possible 12 points over six games. Over this current three-game trip that ends tonight, the Flyers are 2-0 and have outscored Ottawa and Pittsburgh, 7-1. They’ve won three in a row overall and outscored the opposition 11-3. No doubt the Flyers will be looking to make it a perfect trip with a win here. Philadelphia has been playing hard the entire year but the pucks weren’t going in. This was a frustrated team with no luck in the first six weeks but that is no longer the case. The Flyers have a great chance to keep it going against a Jets’ team that is a bit overvalued right now.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +114 over SACRAMENTO
Sacramento's decision not to commit to Jimmer Fredette is fair but starting 34-year-old John Salmons (5.1 ppg on 30.4 percent shooting) on a rebuilding team is baffling. The Kings would be better served trying to find minutes for their 24-year-old shooting guard rather than trying to squeeze some semblance of production out of Salmons. Fredette might not belong in the starting lineup, but he doesn't belong at the end of the bench of a rebuilding squad either. In the end, the Kings although in the tougher West, are going to lose a lot more games than the Pistons will.
After losing the first two games of their current four-game trip, the Pistons have now lost four straight overall and have just two victories in seven games, which is the exact same record as the Kings. Detroit has been a perennial bottom feeder for years and their slow start has many folks believing that it is the same old, same old but we’re here to tell nothing could be further from the truth. The Pistons five losses have come against Memphis, Indiana, OKC, Portland and Golden State. Outside of their loss against the Warriors, they were in a position to win the other four. Detroit has the size, the talent and the defensive expertise to be a stout team. The Pistons' forest of big men will overpowered weaker teams like the one they will see here. The Pistons are on the verge of a good run and they’re desperate for a win. They have the Lakers up next and there is little chance that they are going to be 0-4 after these last two games of this trip. Getting anything against the Kings is a gift.
Pass CBB & CFB
Dave Essler
Western Carolina +8
First off, V-Tech is not Oregon, and after playing the Ducks this game should simply not be intimidating to the Catamounts at all. They bring back their entire team, while V-Tech lost at home to UC Upstate. USU doesn't suck, but losing at home to them is simply inexcusable. The Hokies then get their mojo up to play a big game against West Virginia, and of course win it. There simply has to be some sort of letdown here. They lose Erick Green, who pretty much did everything for them last year, including playing almost 90% of the teams' minutes. That just can't be replaced in a hurry. And even with Greem the Hokies had a huge problem protecting the basketball last year. Western Carolina is small, but they're not strangers to playing big games on the road. They shoot three's well, shoot free throws well (although don't get to the line as often as I would like), and because of they're quickness tend to defend the perimeter well. With all that in mind, it's my contention that this is not a fast-paced, high scoring game, meaning this is just far too many points.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
UCLA -3 over Washington: UCLA is a tough team at home and while Washington has been a good team this year, they have played better at home than on the road and have struggled vs the top teams in the Pac-12. UCLA averages 559.8 ypg and 49.8 ppg on their home field this year, while the Huskies have averaged just 438.7 ypg and have scored 28.7 ppg on the road. UCLA has a nice defensive edge at home, as well, as they have allowed just 16.5 ppg on this field, while Washington has allowed 36 ppg on the road. UCLA has won the last 7 in this series at home and by an average of 13.9 ppg and they should make it 8 in a row here, with a win of at least 7 points.
Richard Witt
UL Lafayette at Arkansas
Play: Arkansas -10.5
Looms lotta points to lay at first glance, but Hogs have been devastating at Bud Walton Arena under Mike Anderson's direction, and while Lafayette's superior to the typical non-con visitor here, can't see Cajuns making a dent in final double-digit margin for hosts.
Bruce Marshall
Nevada vs. San Francisco
Pick: San Francisco
Encouraging early developments from both locales. Nevada buoyed by midweek comeback win at Cal Poly, as UTEP transfer G Mike Perez (46% treys in early going) looking like a better complement to star Wolf Pack sr. Deonte Burton (22.5 ppg) than the departed Malik Story, whose bipolar performances made Nevada very difficult to chart. And David Carter’s frontline appears refreshed after the coach ran off several unproductive elements in the summer. But not sure Pack can keep pace with go-go USF scoring 93 ppg in first week and hitting on all cylinders after 91-82 midweek win over capable Cleveland State. Savvy PG Cody Doolin (9 apg) spoiled for choice by variety of weapons at his disposal, now augmented by instant offense 6-7 juco Kruze Pinkins (14 ppg in first two; just 18 minutes pg!). If price doesn’t float into DDs, value seems to rest with Bill Russell’s resurgent alma mater.
John Ryan
Detroit at Sacramento
Prediction: Under
The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 195 points will be scored. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 23-5 'UNDER' mark for 82% winners since 2007. Play 'under' the posted total with home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SACRAMENTO) after a blowout win by 15 points or more and is now facing an opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more two straight games. Detroit is 30-15 UNDER (+13.5 Units) after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1996. Detroit has had six-of-eight games play 'OVER' the posted total and have lost four straight games allowing 99 or more points. In their last loss 113-95 at Golden State they allowed 60% shooting and had just 42 boards. Now they are facing an opponent that is off a most impressive in over the Nets, but has had major troubles scoring points. Kings rank 25th averaging 94.4 PPG and rank 8th allowing 98.1 PPG. This game simply takes on a slower more methodical pace that favors both teams to have a shot at a win. Take the 'UNDER'
Jack Jones
Minnesota Timberwolves -1
The Minnesota Timberwolves are the real deal in 2013. After suffering countless injuries over the past couple of seasons, they simply weren't able to live up to their potential. Now healthy, the Timberwolves' overall talent is starting to show en route to a 6-3 start in 2013.
Kevin Love has scored 23 or more points in all but one game. His points-plus-rebounds-plus-assists average of 46.4 leads the league. Ricky Rubio leads the NBA with 3.3 steals per game, and his 9.7 assists is among the league leaders. Kevin Martin is matching a career high with 24.6 points per game.
Denver has gotten it together of late, winning three of its last four games overall. However, those three wins have come against the Hawks, Jazz and Lakers, who are three below-average teams in this league. Minnesota's three losses have come against the Clippers, Warriors and Cavaliers, with two of them coming by a combined three points.
Minnesota is 22-11 ATS versus up-tempo teams who average 83 or more shots per game over the last two seasons. The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. Minnesota is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring 100 or more points in its previous game. The Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Timberwolves Friday.
Nelly
Boston Celtics + over Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers are on a roll with a 6-2 record on the season, currently the second best mark in the Western Conference. Portland has always held a great home court and five of the eight games this season have come at home. In road games the Blazers have lost at Phoenix and won in Denver and Sacramento and this is the first east coast game of the season and it comes on the heels of a big revenge win over the Suns on Wednesday night. Boston started the season with an ugly 0-4 record but Brad Stevens and a short-handed squad still without Rajon Rondo has turned around with wins in four of the last five games. They swept a Magic team that looks greatly improved and they had a big win in Miami. On Wednesday Boston had a letdown loss at home against Charlotte, scoring just 83 points and shooting less than 38 percent. Charlotte had a massive edge at the free throw line and on the boards in that game while committing just 12 turnovers. This should be a good spot for the Celtics to bounce back and there is value with the home underdog. Boston has been exceptional defensively this season, allowing less than 96 points per game and holding foes to less than 30 percent 3-point shooting. Despite the hot start for Portland the defense has struggled allowing 46 percent shooting as the Blazers have been out-shot on the season despite the great record. Almost 78 percent of the scoring comes from the starters for Portland as this is not a team with great depth and the home team has won in seven of the last nine meetings between these teams as the cross country trip is tough to overcome.
Red Dog Sports
Columbia vs. Michigan St
Play Under 154
Michigan State is off a battle with Kentucky on Tuesday and now has a letdown game on a Friday night. Columbia has played 11 unders/ 5 overs in its last 16 non-conference games. The Spartans have scored more points than usual in their two games but now they face a average Ivy League squad. Ken Pom has this game at 76-55 (131 points).
Larry Ness
Georgia Tech at Georgia
Pick: Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech travels to Georgia on Friday in a matchup of in-state rivals, neither of which have made much ‘noise’ as of late. In fact, the two programs have combined for two just NCAA Tournament appearances in the past five seasons. The Yellow Jackets have won the last two meetings, and a victory would give Georgia Tech its first three-game winning streak in the series since 1992-94. Book it!
Georgia did return SIX of its top-eight top scorers from last year’s team but the team’s No. 1 scorer, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, averaged 18.5 PPG, while no other player averaged as much as 8.0 PPG. It figures to be another LONG season for Mark Fox, who must really miss his days in Reno, where he led Nevada to three straight NCAA trips.
Meanwhile, three freshmen led Georgia Tech in scoring last season, guard Georges-Hunt (10.8) plus forwards Carter (9.9-6.7) and Holsey (8.8-4.7). Also returning was 6-11 senior center Miller (8.4-6.6) plus Tennessee transfer, guard Trae Golden (13.6 & 12.1 PPG his last two years with the Vols) is eligible, so the Yellow Jackets suddenly have a pretty good nucleus. Surely one good enough to take down the Bulldogs, even in Athens.
Chris Jordan
My free winner for tonight is on the Los Angeles Lakers, plus the points at home against the Memphis Grizzlies.
Once we get by the brother vs. brother matchup - that being Marc Gasol and Pau Gasol - this has the makings to be a pretty good basketball game. One team - the Grizzlies - has underachieved at 3-5, while the other - the Lakers - are seemingly overachieving with a 4-6 mark.
Los Angeles has been without Kobe Bryant (Achilles') and will be without Steve Nash (back), yet for some reason we're seeing some of the Lakers' best work against top quality teams and under duress.
The Lakers have hit 40.6 percent from behind the arc this season thus far, and something tells me on a Friday night at Staples, with the crowd livened up to rattle a vulnerable Grizzlies team that has yet to win on the road, this is a good spot to play Los Angeles.
Take the home dog.
4♦ L.A. LAKERS