Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday November, 16

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

BYU vs. Florida State
The Cougars look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 non-conference games. BYU is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cougars favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: BYU (-1 1/2)

Game 719-720: NC-Wilmington at Ohio (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 47.416; Ohio 65.730
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio by 20
Dunkel Pick: NC-Wilmington (+20)

Game 721-722: Rutgers at Princeton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 55.193; Princeton 62.666
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 7 1/2;
Vegas Line: Princeton by 2 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-2 1/2)

Game 723-724: California at Denver (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 62.313; Denver 58.997
Dunkel Line: California by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: California

Game 725-726: Oklahoma at Texas-Arlington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 61.352; Texas-Arlington 56.752
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas-Arlington (+7 1/2)

Game 727-728: Arkansas-Little Rock at Mississippi (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Little Rock 51.486; Mississippi 65.935
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 16
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+16)

Game 729-730: Washington State at Pepperdine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 65.975; Pepperdine 49.521
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington State by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (-9 1/2)

Game 731-732: Pacific at Fresno State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 44.390; Fresno State 59.038
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-5 1/2)

Game 733-734: Vanderbilt at Oregon (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 70.082; Oregon 69.538
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 1
Vegas Line: Oregon by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+6 1/2)

Game 735-736: North Carolina at Long Beach State (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 71.163; Long Beach State 64.445
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 10 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+10 1/2); Over

Game 737-738: Illinois at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 61.507; Hawaii 52.212
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 7
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-7)

Game 739-740: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee (10:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 60.652; Tennessee 62.077
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 741-742: NC-Asheville vs. Akron (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 57.126; Akron 56.835
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 743-744: NC State vs. Massachusetts (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 71.046; Massachusetts 63.176
Dunkel Line: NC State by 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 745-746: Penn State vs. Providence (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 57.212; Providence 56.551
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 747-748: Colorado vs. Baylor (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 64.327; Baylor 70.559
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 749-750: Boston College vs. Dayton (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 51.859; Dayton 61.424
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 751-752: St. John's vs. Murray State (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 58.409; Murray State 65.567
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 753-754: College of Charleston vs. Auburn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 51.586; Auburn 56.879
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 5
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 755-756: Mercer at George Mason (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 61.047; George Mason 57.901
Dunkel Line: Mercer by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 757-758: Illinois-Chicago vs. New Mexico (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 46.512; New Mexico 69.205
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 22 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 17; 138
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-17); Under

Game 759-760: Wake Forest vs. Connecticut (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 52.835; Connecticut 67.678
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 15; 131
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 10; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-10); Under

Game 761-762: Quinnipiac vs. Iona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 55.574; Iona 60.156
Dunkel Line: Iona by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 6
Dunkel Pick: Quinnipiac (+6)

Game 763-764: Western Michigan vs. Loyola-Chicago (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 50.462; Loyola-Chicago 51.520
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 1
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 3
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+3)

Game 765-766: MD-Eastern Shore at South Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Eastern Shore 36.170; South Florida 64.900
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 29
Vegas Line: South Florida by 23
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-23)

Game 767-768: Oregon State vs. Purdue (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 62.804; Purdue 65.621
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 769-770: Villanova vs. Alabama (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 65.096; Alabama 65.078
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 771-772: Western Illinois vs. Buffalo (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 50.792; Buffalo 57.293
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 773-774: Yale at Evansville (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 50.102; Evansville 59.530
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 775-776: BYU vs. Florida State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 66.137; Florida State 62.156
Dunkel Line: BYU by 4; 144
Vegas Line: BYU by 1 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-1 1/2); Under

Game 777-778: Notre Dame vs. St. Joseph's (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 66.489; St. Joseph's 61.513
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 5; 127
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 3; 123
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-3); Over

Game 779-780: North Carolina Central vs. South Dakota (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina Central 48.292; South Dakota 46.173
Dunkel Line: North Carolina Central by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 781-782: Southern at Wyoming (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 41.792; Wyoming 62.861
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 21
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 783-784: Siena vs. CS-Northridge (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 49.057; CS-Northridge 51.034
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 785-786: Tulsa vs. San Diego (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 60.255; San Diego 53.361
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 787-788: CS-Fullerton at Nevada (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 54.490; Nevada 61.876
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 5
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-5)

Game 789-790: Southern Utah vs. WI-Green Bay (11:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 48.808; WI-Green Bay 51.688
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 3
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 8
Dunkel Pick: Southern Utah (+8)

Game 791-792: Nebraska-Omaha at Tulane (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska-Omaha 35.240; Tulane 54.929
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Tulane by 17
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (-17)

Game 793-794: NC-Greensboro at East Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 46.732; East Carolina 60.928
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 14
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 11
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-11)

Game 795-796: Wofford at Ball State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 50.152; Ball State 54.194
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 4
Vegas Line: Ball State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Wofford (+6)

Game 797-798: Clemson at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 63.650; Furman 48.908
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-8 1/2)

Game 799-800: Eastern Illinois at Eastern Michigan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 38.976; Eastern Michigan 52.772
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 14
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 12
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-12)

Game 801-802: South Dakota State at Hofstra (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 64.265; Hofstra 50.218
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 14
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 12
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-12)

Game 803-804: Manhattan at Harvard (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 52.381; Harvard 63.421
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 805-806: St. Peter's at Cornell (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 44.275; Cornell 55.444
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 11
Vegas Line: Cornell by 6
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-6)

Game 807-808: Arkansas State at Tennessee-Martin (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 53.923; Tennessee-Martin 40.681
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 13
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-8)

Game 809-810: Sacramento State at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 47.918; Utah 54.561
Dunkel Line: Utah by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-4 1/2)

David Chan

Utah vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Utah

The Jazz are 4-5, including just 1-5 on the road.

Utah is coming off a 98-93 loss at Boston on Wednesday.

The Jazz will look to make an immediate return to the winners circle tonight, and utilize their height advantage in the paint vs. the vertically challenged 76ers side.

Note that Utah did in fact outrebound the C's 48-33.

The Jazz average over 43 PPG in the paint, led by Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, who combine to score an average of 31.1 PPG.

"We proved that we can fight. That's the difference between the Celtics and us right now. They know how to seal the game," Jefferson said after the setback. "That's what we've got to get to. Playing these type of teams, it's going to help us get there. Now, we know what to do. So, we just need to go and try and take care of these next two games on the road."

Already 1-0 ATS in non-conference games this year, note that Utah is 28-21 ATS in the same position over the last two.

Philadelphia is 4-4, including just 1-3 in front of the home town crowd.

Note that Philadelphia is also just 1-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season.

With Andrew Bynum sidelined, Philadelphia is averaging just 33.5 PPG in the paint.

Bynum's replacements have been completely inept, as Kwame Brown and Lavoy Allen are averaging just 9.1 PPG between them.

Most recently the 76ers are coming off a 94-76 home loss to the Pistons on Wednesday, shooting under 30% from the floor, while being outrebounded 57-38 in the process.

I believe the Jazz break out of their road funk with a convincing victory, committing themselves to a firm game plan of working the ball down low and taking full advantage of the mismatches throughout this contest!

Rob Vinciletti

Houston Rockets vs. Portland Trailblazers
Play: Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers fit a nice system here that plays on rested home favorites with a total of 180 or higher that scored 100 or more as a road dog of 4 or less, vs an opponent that scored 100 or more as a home favorite of -5 or more, provided both teams shot 455 or higher and had 25 or less assists in their last game. Houston has not done well with home loss revenge losing 19 of the last 28 times in this role. Portland played real well in winning by 10 in Houston earlier this month. Look for Portland to get the cash as a small home favorite here tonight.

Jim Feist

Suns vs Lakers
Pick: Over

Phoenix still runs, even without Steve Nash, and they don't play any defense (29th in points allowed. The over is 6-1 in the Suns last 7 overall and 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on one days rest. The Lakers are more uptempo since Mike Brown was fired, topping 100 in two of three games. The over is 35-16 in the Lakers last 51 vs. Western Conference and 17-5 over in their last 22 vs. the NBA Pacific. And when these teams meet the over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings, as well as 8-3 over the total in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles. Play the Suns/Lakers over the total.

JR O'Donnell

Pacific +5.5

These Tigers can hang with the Fresno St Bulldogs tonight on Friday late.... Play the #'s hard as we have capped these Tigers who were throttled last year @ 11-19 to a pickem tonight in Fresno.. Travis Fulton a stud inside. They have 11 returning lettermen & 5 starters all back behind a Rock Solid coach .. (Veteran Coach Thomason 25 years will have the ready tonight in Fresno) ... Bulldogs put up 39 last game vs the Cal Riverside ... Pacific by 1 to 3 points

Joe Gavazzi

Florida Atlantic -1½

After an 8-5 SU, 20-11 season, the Fla Int hopes have been dashed with a record of 2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, -53 AFP. Conversely, under first year HC Pelini, Fla Atl has become this year's version of W. Kentucky. Though only 3-7 SU, they are 8-2 ATS reeling off 8 consecutive covers. For the year, they are +55 AFP. As a result, this line has swung 14 full points to the Owls being the favorite. Nonetheless, will not stand in the way of the Owls momentum and notable improvement.

Jack Jones

Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Indiana Pacers are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Dallas Mavericks Friday. Dallas is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 5-4 start this season, while Indiana is undervalued due to its 3-6 start.

Dallas' five wins have come against the Lakers, Bobcats, Blazers, Raptors and Wizards. Those five teams have a combined 12-26 record on the season. The Mavericks are still without their two best players in Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion, and this simply isn't a very strong team until they return.

The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, getting outscored by 6.2 points/game. The Pacers are 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 3.3 points/game. They are limiting opponents to a mere 85.7 points/game at home this year.

Indiana is 51-31 ATS in home games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games since 1996. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games overall. Mavericks are 17-41-1 ATS in their last 59 vs. NBA Central division opponents. Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 meetings with the Pacers, and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 meetings in Indiana. Bet the Pacers Friday.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS +6½ -108 over Oklahoma City

The Thunder are 6-3 and are considered to be among the elite teams in the NBA. From our standpoint, this team has regressed badly and we can take full advantage of it here. The Thunder’s six wins have come against Portland, Toronto, Chicago, Detroit twice and Cleveland. Combined, that group is 13-28 with only the Bulls having a winning record. They’ve only played three teams above .500 and have one win to show for it. The absence of James Harden appears to have hurt Kevin Durant more than anyone, forcing him into a playmaking role that he doesn't seem completely comfortable with.

Meanwhile, the Hornets are playing well with three wins in six games and have played a much more difficult schedule than these guests. New Orleans has already beaten the same Chicago team that the Thunder beat and they also have a win over the Jazz. They lost by just four to Houston in its last game and lost by just four to the Spurs on opening night. The Hornets top overall pick Anthony Davis is a star in the makings, not only with his play but with his refuse to lose attitude and great defense (eight blocks in his last two games). This one has upset written all over it with the points offered giving us even more security.

MEMPHIS -6 -107 over New York

The Knicks remain the only unbeaten team in the league after last night’s satisfying win in San Antonio. As a 5-point dog in that game, New York was down 12 in the fourth quarter and rallied to win it. Imagine that. It’s telling that the Knicks are being offered more points here than last night when San Antonio is considered to be better than Memphis. Knicks are in big danger of a letdown here, the line says so.

The Grizzlies are a power that continues to fly under the radar. They beat the Thunder by 10 in its last game and the Heat by 18 prior to that. They’ve quietly won six in a row, they’re unbeaten at home and they might be the least flawed team in the Association. There is no danger of them suffering a letdown having to face the only unbeaten team in the league. It’s the hottest ticket around and the fans will be on their feet from the opening tip off. Knicks get their first taste of defeat here and it would not surprise us if it’s an ugly one.

WUNDERDOG

Orlando at Detroit
Pick: Orlando +5

The Orlando Magic are pretty banged up right now, and have a couple questionable contributors for tonight's game. The Pistons are in the same boat as their best player, Rodney Stuckey dealing with the flu. It is tough to get behind a Detroit team that is 1-8 on the season, allowing 101.5 points per game in the process. That changed when Philadelphia shot 29% against them, which hardly looks like it was because of Detroit's defense. The Magic lost to the Knicks in their previous game, hardly a surprise, but what they did get was 21 points from rookies Moe Harkness, and Andrew Nicholson. It is also hard to get behind a team that is 83-156 in their last 239 games (winning one of every three games), and then ask them to win by 6 points or more on top of it. The Magic have responded to a 10+ point loss at home by going 6-0 ATS in their next game. They are also 14-5 in their last 19 vs. the NBA central. Play on Orlando.

John Ryan

UNC-Wilmington at Ohio University
Prediction: UNC-Wilmington

The simulator shows a high probability that UNC-Wilmington will lose this game by fewer than 20 points. UNC-W may not be the a strong team, but they do have a rebounding edge in this game. The sim shows that they will have between 40 and 44 rebounds in this game. In past games, UNC-W is 16-6 ATS in road games when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game since 1997. Noteworthy is that Ohio guard Walter Offutt is listed as probable with a lower body injury. His playing time may be limited however, and this is a key to making this an easy cover for Wilmington. Ohio plays a three-guard set bench player Ricardo Johnson is not the player that Offut is on the court. Offutt played just 19 minutes shooting just 1-for 5 with two misses from beyond the arc for four points. He is a senior and team leader, who averaged 12.4 PPG in the 2011-12 season. Take UNC-Wilmington.

Steve Janus

Indiana Pacers -2.5

The Pacers are clearly not the same team without Danny Granger in the lineup, but they are simply showing too much value as a small home favorite to not put at least a little bit of action on them. While the Pacers are just 3-6 overall, they are a respectable 2-1 at home and will be going up against a Dallas team that has lost three straight on the road.

While the Pacers come in averaging just 87.8 ppg, they have been able to stay competitive because of a defense that is only allowing 91.1 ppg. They seem to really pick up the intensity at home, where they are only giving up 85.7 ppg. The offense should also be able to put together some easy baskets against a Dallas defense that is allowing 102.2 ppg on the road.

Bobby Conn

Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers

Small number here to lay for a home team that typically has a strong advantage in Indiana. Both teams are without their best player, but the Pacers struggles have come as a result of playing a lot of games on the road and not being able to finish. Dallas looks like they have managed without Dirk, but they have had a soft schedule. The Mavs have struggled defensively and that should help the Pacers offense get going a little bit tonight. I'll lay the small number.

TJ Pemberton

Dallas Mavericks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Dallas Mavericks

Here are a few things I am looking at....

The Pacers are...
Still without Granger
Only have 1 Win in their last 6 games
Last in the NBA with only scoring an average of 87.9 ppg
Haven't score more than 90 points in their last 3 games

The Mavs are...
4-0 when hitting the 100 point mark and will get it done tonight
O.J. Mayo is realizing he was an important off season pick-up
The Mavs may not have the "Star" power but they have some help off the bench, veterans and have the ability to win this game outright when they play good ball.

Charlie Sports

Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +2

The (3-4) Atlanta Hawks of the Eastern Conference Southeast division will take on the (2-6) Sacramento Kings of the NBA Western Conference Pacific division in 2012 NBA action. The The Hawks are 5-1 the last 6 against the spread vs. Sacramento. The over is also 5-1 the last 6 between the teams. The Kings are onlt 1-6-1 their last 8 ATS, but Sacramento gets the home cover +2.